March Thoroughbred Madness

4 03 2010

Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration.  For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground.  At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!

Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time.  That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”

True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks.  For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms.  Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!

For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however,  it’s starting to become desperation time.  Little room for error is afforded the contestants.  One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.

Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3′s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again.  More on that in a moment).

That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail.  One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:

“Let’s hear it for New York!  These streets will make you feel brand new.  Big lights will inspire you…”

(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)

I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?

The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Three Day Rush (4/1)
  2. Yawanna Twist (5/1)
  3. Nacho Friend (8/1)
  4. Awesome Act (7/2*)
  5. I’ve Got The Fever (12/1)
  6. Peppi Knows (10/1)
  7. Shrimp Dancer (12/1)
  8. Turf Melody (8/1)
  9. Afleet Again (20/1)
  10. Wow Wow Wow (6/1)

Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux.   The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds.  We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif.  What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start.  If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.

Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line.  That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway.  Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park.  I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.

Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line.  I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board.  The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint.   His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him.  I’m going to make him my top choice here.

Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN.  I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1.  If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds?  The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.

Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST.  The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct.  You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?

Selections:

  • #6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
  • # 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
  • # 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)

I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays.  Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).

The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Marcello
  2. The Program
  3. Outlaw Man
  4. El Mirage King
  5. Boulder Creek
  6. Kettle River
  7. Setsuko
  8. Wolf Tail
  9. Nextdoorneighbor
  10. Alphie’s Bet

Note: Odds were not yet available as of this writing, but will be updated once they are set.

Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post?  Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes.  For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.

The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM.   That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.

We’ll start with the obvious.  KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes.  The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse.  We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try.  Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement.  His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.”  I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.

THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.  If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back.  More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December.  He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.

If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN?  Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows.  I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example).  Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer.  Remember that guy?  Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time.  Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt.  I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.

SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago.  He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races.  He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference).  I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here.  The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO.  He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners.  Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.

Selections:

  • #6 Kettle River
  • #2 The Program
  • #3 Outlaw Man

I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.

Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races.  Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

Snowmageddon picks for the Robert B. Lewis and Donn Handicap

5 02 2010

By the time you read this, yours truly will be proverbially buried in what could wind up being between 2 to 3 feet of snow!  Yes, the storm we’ve dubbed “Snowmageddon” is absolutely hammering the mid-atlantic, and living on the Maryland/Pennsylvania line, we seem to be right smack dab in the cross-hairs.   What better to do at a time like this than sit back and fire up the ole betting account and take part in the action at some locations enjoying just a bit more friendly weather?  This Saturday affords us several chances for major stakes action across the country.  We’ll be focusing on the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in this post.

Grade 1 Donn Handicap – Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – 5:31 ET

The 52nd running of the $500k Donn will be contested by 10 horses going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  QUALITY ROAD is the horse everyone will be watching here.  The son of Elusive Quality was a trendy pick for the 2009 Kentucky Derby before being sideline by injury (truth be told, he was my top choice…before that honor went to I Want Revenge…before being forced to switch yet again, ultimately winding up with Friesan Fire.  I think we all know how that ended).  Many will recall his infamous gate antics moments before the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita that caused Zenyatta and others to have to wait what seemed an eternity before he was ultimately scratched.  The colt rebounded from that non-performance by winning the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope here at Gulfstream last out on January 3.  If you’re looking for a big score here, you’ll need to beat him to cash – which may be a tall order.

The interesting thing about this race presents itself when trying to determine who is likely to finish underneath the favorite.  I like the looks of KISS THE KID here quite a bit at 6/1.  I’m usually fond of the Lemon Drops, although it must be noted this one was defeated by DUKE OF MISCHIEF last out by a neck.  PAST THE POINT could also be interesting depending on what happens up front early on.  DELIGHTFUL KISS should be flying late as the field heads for the wire, and I’m expecting him to rally for a share of the money.

Selections:

  • #4 Quality Road (7/5*)
  • #1 Kiss the Kid (6/1)
  • #10 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Dime Superfecta:  4/ 1, 3, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 = ($10.80)

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  - Santa Anita (Race 8 ) – 4:07 PT

The 72nd running of the Robert B. Lewis is being billed as a two horse race between offspring of one of my all-time favorite horses and sires; Tiznow.  AMERICAN LION roars into town as a Kentucky Derby hopeful searching for graded stakes earnings.  He’s got a favorable post position towards the outside in this rather light six horse field.  His maiden victory at Keeneland generated quite a bit of buzz, and hopefully we’ll be able to answer some questions about how serious of a horse he’ll be today stretching out to 8.5 furlongs.TIZ CHROME is the “other Tiznow” in the field that everyone is buzzing about.  Trainer Bob Baffert has seen his colt thrash the 17 horses he’s faced in two lifetime starts, including a blitz of the Stuka (get it?) last out at Hollywood.  The question between these two is obviously who will get the best of the added distance.  Considering each colt has shown they don’t need the lead early on to score, we appear to be setup for a promising stretch duel here.  Whoever gets first jump just might pull away with the race.

Underneath, I thought CARACORTADO looked playable, largely because of his 4 for 4 record (albeit against lesser competition).  I could also make a case for the aptly named DOMONATION for trainer John Sadler with jockey smokin’ Joe Talamo aboard.  Either way, it doesn’t look like this will be a bank breaking race, unless something unexpected materializes.

I’ll keep this one fairly simple.

Selections:

  • #6 American Lion
  • #3 Tiz Chrome
  • #7 Domonation

Dime Superfecta:  6/ 3, 4, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 7/ ALL = $3.60

Of course, there’s one other big event coming up this weekend that we’ll be squeezing in time for in between epic snow shoveling sagas:  The Super Bowl.  I’m taking the Colts over the Saints in a close one.

As for the other news that the horse racing news coming out of Oaklawn Park, I’ll simply say I’m reserving serious thought about the potential of a showdown between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra until something becomes official.  I just don’t have a good feeling it’s going to happen in the Apple Blossom.  We’ll see though – it certainly would be an exciting start to the racing season for 2010.

Best of luck to everyone!



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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Santa Anita, Kentucky Derby Trail, Zenyatta, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, horse racing, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra

Sunshine Millions Quick Picks

29 01 2010

Last weekend we were treated to one of our first real tastes of the 2009 Triple Crown season with the Holy Bull and the Lecomte.  Additionally, my good friend Val from Foolish Pleasure has also shared this video showcasing another Curlin filly by the mare Collect Call (and doesn’t she look awfully familiar?).  Obviously, the year and the deep winter many find themselves in are starting to show their first hints of thawing out on us and warming things up….and it’s about darn time, isn’t it?

This weekend the focus in racing shifts back to runners we may have more familiarity with in the annual Sunshine Millions event held for California and Florida bred horses at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita.  Six races, two tracks, and numerous directions for horseplayers to consider present themselves.  Here’s my quick picks for the races on Saturday, in order of the tentative post times.

The $200k Sunshine Millions Sprint  (GP – R8- 4:33 ET)

We kick things off with the 8th running of the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream Park.  A relatively small field of 7 horses is all there is to choose from.  Personally I think this one comes down to two of them; THIS ONE’S FOR PHIL was one of trainer Rick Dutrow’s speed freaks last spring.  The horse went to the Dave Houghton barn following a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens last June at Belmont.  Houghton got the gelding back on track with a 3 length victory over lesser foes last out at Laurel.  I feel he may be in for a tough match today with the imposing PASHITO THE CHE, a son of Flatter (A.P. Indy) for the Scott Lake barn who has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all with impressive Beyer figures.  Looks pretty simple to me.

Selections:

  • #4 Paschito the Che (8/5*)
  • #6 This Ones for Phil (9/5)
  • #3 Accredit (6/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Distaff (GP – R9 – 5:08 ET)

The second race in the Sunshine Millions is the Distaff, for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  Things seem to get a bit more interesting here with a field of 9 horses, several of which would seem to have chances.  Like the sprint, I have a feeling this one may boil down to a two horse race between SWEET REPENT and JESSICA IS BACK, neither of whom will over a lot of bang for the buck.  If you’re looking for more value, you might want to focus on the chances of EVEN ROAD (20/1) and SCOLARA (12/1), with EVEN ROAD probably having the better shot between the two thanks in part to a solid two-for-three record at the track.  That being said, her past performances suggest she may be a better play underneath in the exotics.  SCOLARA would need some pace help in all likelihood due to her late running style.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to make SWEET REPENT the top choice here, considering how the daughter of Repent handled JESSICA IS BACK at Churchill Downs going a mile and a sixteenth back in November.  I’ll guess that she gets a solid trip here and winds up in the winner’s circle.

Selections:

  • #4 Sweet Repent (2/1)
  • #7 Jessica Is Back (9/5*)
  • #6 Even Road (20/1)

The $200k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint (SA – R6 – 2:36 PT)

We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita for the first time this afternoon for the Filly and Mare Sprint.  This might be one of the more interesting betting races of the entire series, due to the rather large field size (13 horses) and the lack of an obvious standout.  The race within the race that looks most intriguing on paper concerns two of the top contenders; MISS MCCALL and LIBOR LADY.  MISS MCCALL returns to the Santa Anita Pro Ride after a romp over the dirt at Turfway Park last December.   She’s been on the shelf since then, but is lightly raced and obviously has room to continue to improve.  LIBOR LADY picks up the services of Gomez, and you know she’ll be running hard every step of the way.  It’ll be interesting to see if these two bang heads early on for the lead and wind up cooking each other, or if one settles into second.  Especially considering other speed types like HIGH RESOLVE are here.  If they do bang heads, then watch out for DUBAI MAJESTY coming from just off the pace, along with either QUISISANA or perhaps even DOTSY JEAN.  Ultimately, I’m going to take a risk here and go with DUBAI MAJESTY, even though she’s 0 for 2 over the synthetics.  I just have a feeling she could wind up the beneficiary of a great trip behind the speed.  It’s also worth noting that she handled LIBOR LADY, albeit over the turf, last October at Keeneland.  True, she’s a tepid favorite on the morning line at 4/1, but I have a hunch MISS MCCALL will go off as the post time favorite.

Selections:

  • #10 Dubai Majesty(4/1*)
  • #3 Miss McCall (9/2)
  • #7 Libor Lady (6/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Turf (GP – R10 – 5:43 ET)

We head back east for the final leg of the Sunshine Millions from Gulfstream Park in Florida.  JET PROPULSION could be setup perfectly to run away with this one if he can get loose on the lead.  If you’re a speed player, this is probably where you’ll wind up.  The one warning sign to consider though is the 0 for 3 mark over the track – but it’s not like horses don’t take advantage of ideal setups all the time to overcome such concerns, so take that with a grain of salt.  The favorite is SOLDIER’S DANCER, who will be running hard late no matter what happens in front of him.  It’s hard to ignore that 7 for 14 record at the 9 furlong distance as this race is clearly within his reach.  I also thought BAD ACTION, WICKED STYLE, and DUKE OF MISCHIEF were somewhat interesting in here, especially as potential plays underneath in the exotics. Don’t overlook PICKAPOCKET either, as while it would be a surprise to find him in the winner’s circle, he’s run well against SOLDIER’S DANCER in the past.  I’ll be betting that SOLDIER’S DANCER runs down JET PROPULSION at the wire, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if the speed hangs on to beat me or one of these other contenders leaps up and grabs victory from the jaws of defeat (and if you twisted my arm and made me guess who would beat me…I’d say BAD ACTION).  This could be a deceptively tricky race.

Selections:

  • #8 Soldier’s Dancer (8/5*)
  • #11 Jet Propulsion (4/1)
  • #3 Duke of Mischief (8/1)

The $300k Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf (SA – R7 – 3:07 PT)

I’ll start with a disclaimer here, as while she doesn’t show up in my top picks, I’ll obviously be rooting for my main man Graham Motion and his entry SAUCEY EVENING in the Filly & Mare Turf.  Yes, she’d need her absolute best and then some to likely win, but if there’s one guy in all of racing who deserves to win every race he’s involved in, it’s Motion.  Looking over the rest of the field with my homerism out of the way, I actually like (surprise, surprise) another tepid post time favorite here in TIGHT PRECISION.  I like that she’s won on the grass at Churchill and Gulfstream, which suggests she’s got some versatility, however in all honesty I would feel a lot more comfortable with that selection if there were a race over the Santa Anita grass to evaluate.  Oh well.  To be totally transparent, I actually like both of trainer Thomas Proctor’s entries in here, with the other being CLOSEOUT.  TIGHT PRECISION will obviously be more forwardly placed, with the aptly named CLOSEOUT looking to, well, close things out, I suppose.  Not that I’d call CLOSEOUT a true closer – but she will be coming from further off the pace in all likelihood.  CENTURY PARK would make quite a bit of sense here if she can get out and control the pace, although it would seem BOOTLEG ANNIE will give her a battle up front for that right.  Ultimately, you know where I’m going here – I’m loyal to a fault, which means I’ll be supporting SAUCEY EVENING with my voice and my wallet, even if others make more sense.  Go get ‘em, Saucey!

Selections:

  • #6 Saucey Evening (5/1)
  • #2 Tight Precision (7/2*)
  • #1 Closeout (4/1)

The $500k Sunshine Millions Classic (SA – R8 – 3:38 PT)

We wind things up with the 8th running of the Classic.  Honestly, who doesn’t love a “classic” (even if this one is not a 10 furlong “classic”)?  I’m a little perplexed as to how morning line favoritism of 5/2 could’ve been bestowed upon THE USUAL Q.T. in this race?  Certainly she’s got a chance, but are you really going to take those odds on a horse that is winless over the synthetics?  In her defense, she has placed in each of her 2 starts over the Santa Anita Pro Ride, and we all know Unusual Heat is one of the more prolific synthetic sires out there, but that just seems like a pretty big leap of faith to me (even on what I’ve referred to as the “turf impersonating Pro Ride” in years past).  Especially in the biggest race of the day.  I’m going to lean elsewhere to the improving and lightly raced COMPARI for trainer Martin Jones.  I love what I see in this horse’s running lines.  yes, he likes to be on the lead, but look a the hidden diversification in his efforts:  turf, synthetics, sprinting, routing – he’s done it all in his short career, and hopefully on Saturday he can add a Sunshine Millions Classic victory to those accomplishments.  What’s not to like?  Four straight victories?  Gomez getting the call?  My only concern is that he might be a slightly better turf horse, but that certainly isn’t a reason to expect any regression over the Pro Ride.    Some other horses in here that I find a bit intriguing include JERANIMO and BOLD CHIEFTAIN.  JERANIMO hasn’t really “classed up” the way I’d like to see, having been throttled by the talented M One Rifle last out, but could benefit from the stretch out having sprinted rather exclusively since last Spring.  BOLD CHIEFTAIN is a definite contender in here, and you might want to think about WICKED STYLE as a possible player as well.  Looks like a solid betting race.

Selections:

  • #8 Compari (3/1)
  • #7 The Usual Q. T. (5/2*)
  • #9 Bold Chieftain (6/1)

Best of luck to all!  And of course, as always, let me know who your picks are.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, horse racing

The Year of the Filly or a Year for All Time?

9 11 2009

 

The moment Zenyatta crossed the wire and became the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, things went hazy.  I vaguely remember searching for people to hug, slapping high fives with everyone around, and letting loose a series of  ”rebel yell” style roars that any native Alabamian would be proud of.   Once that subsided, I began pondering whether everything we’d witnessed both in the immediacy of the Breeders’ Cup and from the entire year in general could possibly have been real, or if I was about to awake from some deep, REM filled dream?  It seems so unimaginably unthinkable that one calendar year could have presented us with such unprecedented historical significance as to have rendered the completely opposite emotions experienced just 17 months ago an almost perfect contrast.  And, of course, the ending was capped off in perfect story book fashion.

Close your eyes for one moment (albeit a brief one), and remember that awful, devastating, seemingly unconquerable feeling of grief and agony that cast a pall over all of racing following the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Now contrast that memory with the euphoria and outright elation experienced many times over this year as racing’s dream girls Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra conquered races and dominated the headlines of the sport in a manner never before seen, nor likely ever thought imaginable.

The “Year of the Filly” it most certainly was – and for racing it could not have come at a more opportune time.  A veritable 180° turnaround.  A phoenix rising from it’s own ashes.  A reconstitution of passion, pride, belief, and affection.  A reaffirmation of all that can and should be good about the sport we love.

Looking back to the previous year, I recall being plagued following the death of Eight Belles with the thought “where do we possibly go from here?”  The obvious follow-up to that question that was even more painful to consider being once we figured out “where” we would go, having to determine “how” we might go about getting there?  It seemed a mountain that we might never be able to climb.  A hole we might never dig ourselves from.  After all, the sport was not exactly in a position of strength from which to deal with such a tragedy, especially having had the same type of nightmare play itself out in 2006 with Barbaro; again while the entire world watched in shock. It was doom and gloom; misery and pain; agony and heartache. 

As if on queue, the sports two biggest stars of 2008, Curlin and Big Brown, were defeated in their biggest moments of the season; Curlin failing to sustain his trademarked “giant strides” as Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator surged past him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Big Brown being pulled up in the stretch of the 2008 Belmont and denied his quest for Triple Crown glory.  The collective mood was rather somber.  One could find themselves asking not what the morrow might bring, but rather cynically ”what could possibly go wrong next?”

Thankfully, as the old axiom holds, time heals all wounds. Tomorrow, no matter how high or low the previous day may have been, is always another day. 

The horse racing gods seemingly took mercy upon us and decided to give fans a little something special for their troubles to help ease the pain.  At least that’s how I like to imagine it.  Something we couldn’t have possibly conceived we would be blessed enough to behold was about to unfold in 2009, although it’s seeds were first sewn in 2008.  As our eyes were largely focused elsewhere, a massive and lightly raced 4-year-old filly based in California was beginning to hit her stride, turning heads and causing people the world over to take notice.  Out in Kentucky, a  2-year-old filly with a unique blaze would break her maiden within a month of the Eight Belles tragedy at a rather nondescript 12/1 price on the tote board.  It’s hard to imagine that anyone realized what might lay ahead as these two began to lay the foundations for what would become two of the more memorable rides through North American thoroughbred racing history in recent memory.

By the time Zenyatta was being crowned 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, the “Year of the Filly” had become the dominant story in racing for the better part of the year.  Zenyatta becoming he first mare in history to win the Classic, finishing with a remarkable perfect record for her career.  Meanwhile, the 3-year-old sensation Rachel Alexandra had achieved the distinction of being mentioned in the same breath as the legendary Ruffian by becoming the first filly in 8 decades to win the Preakness, the 2nd filly in 4 decades to win the Haskell, and the 1st 3-year-old filly to defeat older males on a dirt route race in New York since Lady Primrose in the 1887 Manhattan Hand.

Horse racing prints commemorating Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta from artist Fred Stone:  http://www.fredstone.com

On a more personal level, the year was indescribably magical. Somehow I managed to be lucky enough to witness Rachel Alexandra’s victories against boys in the Preakness and Haskell as well as Zenyatta’s victory in the Classic LIVE.  Talk about the Trifecta of a lifetime, eh?  And that doesn’t even count the experience I shared with my wife on her birthday at Belmont as Rachel sped her way to a near track record in the Mother Goose. 

For a guy who had always assumed he was born about 3 decades too late to experience historically relevant moments in the annals of horse racing, 2009 has been a veritable feast of unprecedentia (note: I’m fairly certain I’ve just invented that word, but it sounds fitting enough to keep).  In fact, the year as a whole has been a reaffirmation of everything that is great about the sport – even with the obvious remaining imperfections.

Searching through my mind for a fitting quote from the ether of the past, I was struck by a question that begins the memoirs from Private Sam Watkins of Company “Aytch” (H), 1st Tennessee Volunteers as he began to reflect in his middle ages about the experiences he had bore witness to in the Civil War as young man.  Watkins had fought in nearly every major battle in the “Western” theater of the war from 1861 – 1865 and had somehow survived relatively unscathed.  He had felt the sting of defeat, the rush of victory, the agony associated with the loss of loved ones, the salvation of ultimate survival and the experience of fatherhood that was denied so many of his generation, as well as the struggle to put into terms for others what had happened in his life.

“Were these things real…or are they but the vagaries of mine own imagination?”  

Much like Watkins, I struggle with whether all that which I have seen has really happened, or been the figments of some fantastical dream.  That somehow this has been too good to be true.  That we couldn’t possibly be lucky enough to have witnessed all that we have seen in so short a period of time.  The immenseness of it all being almost beyond comprehension.

To the tune of the full quote that was much abbreviated above from Sam Watkins:

Did my wife and I really have the honor of watching Rachel Alexandra become the first filly in 8 decades to win the Preakness at Pimlico? Did I shake with excitement, nearly yelling myself into cardiac arrest as she willed herself through the stretch?  Had we shed mutual tears of joy and embraced anyone we could find in the shadows of the old clubhouse at Pimlico where so many of the all-time great 3-year-olds had stood over the years?

Were we really bestowed with the honor of being inside the paddock to see Rachel off to post in the Haskell at Monmouth Park?  Had I truly been able to stand with my 5-year-old son and marvel at the majestic beauty before us moments away from her becoming “a Haskell legend?”

Did I watch as my beloved Zenyatta, forever my “Slow Cheetah”, paused in front of the Grandstand to “paw” at and “dance” upon the Santa Anita Pro Ride to the delightful roar of the crowd as she went to post in the Classic?  Had I sprung to life in unison with nearly 60,000 other fans as she made her bid for greatness in the stretch?  Had I celebrated with friends and strangers alike, faces flushed with joy, hearts spilling with the pride of parenthood and the innocent joy of childhood?  Had I led my hotel shuttle from the park in a rousing rendition of “how ’bout that Zenyatta?!?!?!” as we left Santa Anita that magical day?

Surely this must be a dream.  To call 2009 the “Year of the Filly” does not give the year proper justice.  It was more than that – perhaps a year for all time.  A year that we will no doubt struggle to explain as the grandchildren sit on our knees many years from now and inquire why grandpa is so continually fascinated by this peculiar (from their vantage point at least) sport. 

“Gather ’round, kids”, we’ll say, “let your grandpa tell you the story of the Year of the Filly way back in two thousand and nine.”  

We’ll then reach for some dusty box of treasured keepsakes and begin to remove the momentos we’ve managed to keep (for me this would most likely be my $2 win tickets from the Preakness and Classic).

“Awe, man….do we have to hear that one again, Grandpa?” they will ask (children being honest to a fault at times).

If there’s enough magic remaining for us in this life, we just might be lucky enough to have one grandchild that “gets it” when we talk about horse racing.

“Shhhhhh!” that child might say.  “Let him tell the story again.  I want to hear about Zenyatta and Rachel.”

Yup, it’s been that kind of year.  Treasure it, my friends.  These kinds of years only come around once in a lifetime.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Breeders’ Cup Marathon Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Here’s the first in a series of closer looks we’ll take at the Breeders’ Cup championship races this weekend at Santa Anita.  As a disclosure, keep in mind that post positions and odds have yet to be set as of this writing and that all handicapping was done perusing the advance past performances released last week.  

I’ll be leaving for California right around the time the post position and morning line odds  information becomes finalized, so what follows are an extremely advanced interpretation of how things might go that is obviously subjected to substantial changes between now (Monday) and the upcoming weekend.

**********************************

Marathon, eh?  Maybe it’s just me, but when I hear the word “Marathon”, I imagine a long phalanx of Greek warriors pitching into an invading Persian host.  For most people, however,  the word invokes images of long, grueling racing action. To this end, the Breeders’ Cup marathon has been extended from a 1 1/2 mile affair in 2008 to a 1 3/4 mile affair this year. 

The field for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon sets up like this:

  • Black Astor
  • Cloudy’s Knight
  • Eldaafer
  • Father Time
  • Gangbuster
  • Man of Iron
  • Mastery
  • Muhannak
  • Nite Light
  • On Fire
  • Sir Dave

In looking for our own 2009 version of Miltiades the Younger (victor of the famed Battle of Marathon in 490 B.C.), two European horses leap off the page to me; MASTERY and FATHER TIME. 

Miltiades - victor of Marathon

Miltiades the Younger - Victor of the Battle of Marathon in 490 BC

MASTERY comes in hot off a victory in the ST. Leger Stakes at Doncaster on September 12.  The son of Sulamani has been the distance before over the grass, and now must prove he’s the same quality of horse racing over the Pro Ride.  He’ll be a short price for the hot Godolphin team, so if you’re looking for a big score to kick off championship weekend, you’ll need to beat this guy to do so.

FATHER TIME could make the most sense to players looking to beat the chalk right out of the gate.  The son of Dansili has earned a victory over a synthetic surface to break his maiden almost a year ago exactly, and has battled with MASTERY in both the Great Voltiguer and St. Leger Stakes overseas.

One thing is certain – we’ll put the notion that the Santa Anita Pro Ride will favor European turf horses to test immediately in the Marathon. 

As for the rest of the field, I think MAN OF IRON makes quite a bit of sense, although he’ll probably be overbet.  I also like the looks of the 9-year-old CLOUDY’S KNIGHT and the 5-year-old NITE LIGHT.  Don’t forget last year’s champion, MUHANNAK, is also returning to defend his crown, although he doesn’t appear to be in as sharp form as he was a year ago.

It would be infinitely easier to explain a possible trifecta ticket if we had the corresponding post positions set, but suffice to say I’ll be using both MASTERY and FATHER TIME on top of my tickets, with NITE LIGHT and CLOUDY’S KNIGHT underneath.  I’ll likely be adding MAN OF IRON to the bottom of the ticket as well.

Selections:

  • Mastery
  • Father Time
  • Nite Light 

Best of luck to all – make sure you start of your Breeders’ Cup wagers with a winner!


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

Derby workout vids for Quality Road, Friesan Fire, and Chocolate Candy

23 04 2009

Gearing up for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, here’s a quick spin through some of the workout videos available on youtube.  In this round of clips we see Quality Road making his first workout since having his quarter crack patched, Friesan Fire turning in a nice AM drill, and Chocolate Candy getting a nice work with jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.

Quality Road 4/10/09 @ Belmont

 

Friesan Fire 4/14/09 @ Keeneland:

 

Chocolate Candy 4/12/09 @ Santa Anita


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Categories : Belmont Park, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

Pioneer of the Nile towers over San Felipe field.

13 03 2009

Pioneer of the Nile, the improving son of Empire Maker who has already prevailed in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1) and Robert B. Lewis (Grade 2) looks quite the imposing figure when glancing through the past performances of Saturday’s Santa Anita card.  Only six challengers have answered the call.  The field for the 72nd running of the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe (Grade 2) sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. He’s Really Big (A. Gryder/ R. Becerra) 30/1
  2. Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/B. Baffert) 2/5*
  3. Feisty Suances (D. Flores/ D. Vienna) 10/1
  4. Shafted (J. Rosario/M. Casse) 8/1
  5. Jeranimo (B. Blanc/M. Ponder) 20/1
  6. Kelly Leak (V. Espinoza/ M. Machowsky)  6/1
  7. New Bay (J. Talamo/ R. Mandella) 8/1

Towering.  Imposing.  Daunting.  How else can one describe how this one looks on paper?  But wait!  What’s this?  We must keep in mind that Pioneer of the Nile has likely already stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket, and now has his eyes cast firmly towards April as dreams of a victory in the Santa Anita Derby fill his connection’s heads.  Might there be an opportunity for an upset?   Not likely, in my opinion.  Trainer Bob Baffert is a shrewd horsemen.  He knows how to have his horses primed for peak performances when it counts.  While this Saturday is not one of those days, it won’t take his best effort to defeat this field. 

We last saw ‘Pioneer prevailing over two extremely good looking colts;  Papa Clem and the recently crowned Gotham champion I Want Revenge.   I’d give either of those two a tremendous shot at turning the tables here today, but alas ‘Revenge has gone eastward, and so hath Papa Clem.  Instead, we get a few recent allowance winners who would appear capable of hitting the board on the bottom of exotic wagers.

Kelly Leak is a horse I have a lot of respect for.  He stands as the obvious second choice at 6/1 and will likely take a healthy dose of exacta play.  He’s gutsy enough to force his way into the picture and has been quite game in all of his 7 lifetime races, with the exception of his lone attempt as early speed in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  I think he’s got a class advantage over many of his rivals for place and show, having run well in the Sunshine Million Dash and the Eddie Logan before winning against N1X runners at the allowance level  last time out.  The question I have for Kelly is what kind of a pace he’ll get to run at today?

Feisty Sauces would appear to be the controlling speed of the race, and as lone speed warrants a big shot to hit the board.  The morning line odds of 10/1 offer ample value for such a play, and this is another who has far from humiliated himself against the likes of Chocolate Candy and Axel Foley.  The questions he’ll have to face relate to the distance (having faded in the Cal Derby) and whether he will be a bit rusty having been off for two months.   Trainer Darrell Vienna has hit off such layoffs fairly well before, and now you get D-Flo in the saddle again.  I could see this one running big for 2nd.  He might be gasping for the wire though. 

New Bay is a very interesting and improving runner for the Richard Mandella barn.  Trouble is, he’s rumored to be a potential scratch, which would make this race even less appealing to play.  Assuming he does run, the sprinter looks like he might handle the stretch out just fine, and if he does he’s a threat here.  That will be the obvious question though.  He also could be more forwardly placed in this route attempt, which could be trouble for Feisty Sauces if that one tries to get too cozy on the lead.

Jeranimo gets the award for the most bizarre name of the field, at least from a spelling standpoint.   I think he’s playable underneath, but do note that his last effort at today’s distance was a full 2 seconds and change slower than Pioneer of the Nile’s win in the ‘Lewis.   Just sayin’ .  

Shafted should turn in an improved performance.  I like the way he’s outclassed lesser quality horses (although he’s been severely trounced by the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and Patena.  He is a Mineshaft (A.P.Indy) colt with good bloodlines.  It’s just a matter of which version of him shows up?  He’s hit or miss all the way.  Catch him on a hit day and he could bring some value to the tote board.  Catch him on a miss day and  he’s not even close.   It is interesting that he’s never had a clean trip.  There’s always been some sort of trouble, usually at the start of the race.  He’s one who could put it all together still.  Certainly he has a shot for a minor award against this field.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #2 Pioneer of the Nile
  • $.10 Superfecta: 2/3,6,7/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7 ($3.60)

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

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