Rachel Alexandra defeated a field of 7 older males to take the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga on Saturday afternoon, virtually locking up Horse of the Year honors with yet another history defying stretch run. It may not have been by double digit lengths this time, as had been her trademark against fellow 3-year-old boys and girls, but at the end of the day it may have been her most impressive performance yet.
As anticipated, the pace setup for the race was extremely challenging for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro. She found herself on the lead being forced to set punishing fractions of :22 and :46 through the opening splits. As the field turned for home, it appeared that the great filly might have bitten off more than she could chew. Macho Again and Bullsbay had taken aim and were unwinding as the field raced to the wire.
Flash back to the moment immediately after her victory in the Haskell. Jockey Calvin Borel indicated that he “didn’t know how great Rachel was” because we had yet to see how she would respond when another horse looked her in the eye in the stretch. Well friends, we got about as close to that on Saturday as we’re likely ever going to see.
As Macho Again looked poised to surge past her for the score, Borel suddenly found more. Like the courageous champion she is, her ears perked and her eyes ablaze, horse and rider determined that history would not be plucked from their grasp within sight of the wire. Somehow, someway, she dug down and found more.
What followed was a moment for all time. The 3-year-old filly crossing the wire in a Grade 1 “distance” race against older boys. Clearly, she must’ve read my“win one for the Vintner” post before heading to the paddock. I tried to warn the boys what they were in for, even going Shakespeare on them get their attention, but they must not have listened.
She has now blazed a trail through history not once, not twice, but THRICE in momentous races. The Preakness, the Haskell, and now the Woodward. I said this over twitterimmediately following the race and I think it bears repeating. “Any discussion of another horse deserving Horse of the Year honors is now patently absurd.”
Not to take anything away from other runners, but the accolades for Rachel are simply off the charts now. It’s beyond my comprehension how anyone could even make a case for another horse as Horse of the Year? I suspect such sentiments would be fueled by disdain for her connections, or blind love for another horse. I understand those feelings quite well – it’s just that they’re flat out wrong in my opinion.
True, the Breeders’ Cup “championship” awaits, but I can’t imagine any single race being able to stack up to what this horse has done on the track throughout the year.
What we’ve just witnessed was a unique moment in history that we might not be lucky enough to live to see again. Yes – it was that special. Just like her victories in the Preakness and the Haskell. There’s a reason these types of races don’t happen every year. Rachel is an absolute one-of-a-kind freakazoid of nature.
So what lies next for her majesty? Owner Jess Jackson has hinted at shutting her down for the rest of the year, presumably so he can bring her back fresh for her 4-year-old campaign. My guess is that after a grueling victory like this, where she had to lay it all on the line to prove her greatness, she’s likely had enough – at least for now.
I keep thinking they’ll send her to Dubai next year to race in the World Cup, once again following the path that Curlin blazed for the Jackson/Asmussen camp in ’07 and ’08. It’s important to keep in mind though that Dubai is switching to a synthetic surface. We all know how Jess Jackson feels about them.
The victory makes her a perfect 8 or 8 in 2009, including 5 consecutive Grade 1 victories stretching back to the Kentucky Oaks, which ironically was the race that first brought her to the forefront of the sport’s consciousness. Additionally, she’s now boosted her lifetime earnings to just under $3 million ($2,948,354).
Of course, the possibility of a matchup with Zenyatta in the Beldame courtesy of TVG-Betfair is still out there. I just don’t see it happening as it doesn’t seem like either camp is particularly interested. The Breeders’ Cup is still out there as well, but Jackson has been adamant that he wants no part of the “plastic Classic.”
Ironically, Rachel wasn’t the only horse stringing together her 5th amazing victory against top level competition. European sensation Sea the Stars was equally impressive taking the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. The victory left racing fans from across the pond speechless searching for races to compare with the performance. The Arc most likely awaits Sea the Stars next, but his connections also have designs on the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Not a bad Saturday, eh? We just saw the two most magnificent specimens in all of horse racing the world over turn in monster performances. Up next we’ve got Colonel John on Sunday at Del Mar.
“…And the last thing he said to me — “Jess,” he said – “sometime, when the barn is up against it – and the filly is set to meet the boys – tell her to go out there with all she’s got and win just one for the Vintner!”
Knute Rockne delivers the famed "win one for the Gipper!" speech at halftime of the 1928 matchup between Notre Dame and Army
When she steps onto the track on Saturday afternoon just before six o’clock in the afternoon (Eastern Time), the filly Rachel Alexandra will be looking to add yet another illustrious stripe to her storied career. In years past the notion of a 3-year-old filly taking on and defeating older males in the Woodward (Grade 1) at Saratoga would’ve sounded absurd. This year, and this horse, however, render matters utterly different as the filly sensation will head to post as the heavy 1/2 morning line favorite.
She’s already proven the naysayers wrong by shattering popular opinionand defeating fields full of stakes winning 3-year-old colts. A win against the older boys in the Woodwardwould not only be the next logical step up the proverbial class ladder of thoroughbred horse racing, but also icing on the cake in her quest to become the 2009 Horse of the Year. The Preakness, the Haskell, and now potentially the Woodward, all as a 3-year-old filly? Remarkable.
That last part causes some consternation amongst fans of different horses. In recent weeks we’ve heard from them how Quality Road was going to annihilate the Travers field and prove that he, and not Rachel, was the best 3-year-old in the nation. Unfortunately for those who subscribed to such a belief, Quality Road wound up being trounced by a horse that Rachel had defeated handily in the Haskell; Belmont Stakes champion Summer Bird.
The win by Summer Bird marked only the latest in a long line of recent foes who have solidified Rachel’s credentials as horse of the year. We all know the stories. Just Jenda, Gabby’s Golden Gal, Flashing, Take the Points, Summer Bird, Afleet Deceit, and Sarah Louise have all returned victorious in their next starts following defeats at the hooves of Rachel the Great.
The field for the Woodward, while not as large as the field of the Travers last weekend, has the potential to flatter her even farther. Grade 1 winners Bullsbay (Whitney Handicap), Da’ Tara (2008 Belmont) and Macho Again (Stephen Foster) lead the charge along with Grade 2 winner It’s a Bird and Group 2 winner Asiatic Boy. In fact, there are over 20 stakes wins amongst the competitors lined up to challenge Queen Rachel and attempt to deny her history.
From a pace setup, the filly would once again appear to be challenged. She could wind up being the speed of the race, although one would suspect jockey Calvin Borel would prefer to use her newly found and decidedly deadly pace pressing style if given the chance. The only other likely pace horses on paper would include Da’ Tara, who wired the field of the 2008 Belmont at moderate fractions, and possibly Cool Coal Man, whom you wouldn’t expect trainer Nick Zito to “send” if he were anticipating stablemate Da’ Tara being on or very near the lead.
If Rachel is on the lead, it’s going to take a monster effort, similar to what we saw in the Preakness to hang on against Macho Again, It’s a Bird, and Bullsbay in the stretch, as those runners figure to get favorable trips.
Looking over her competition, It’s a Bird looks to me like the biggest threat. Trainer Martin Wolfson also trains Icon Project, the next horse that many are whispering might have a chance against Rachel. Sadly, for Wolfson, Icon Project will not be in the Woodward, and instead he’ll have to turn to It’s a Bird. Some folks might go gaga over the name, considering the smashing success that “bird” themed horses have celebrated this year, but this ornithologically named runner is a son of Birdonthewire rather than Birdstone. Still, if his efforts in the Lone Star Park Handicap and Oaklwan Handicap are any indication, he’s capable of sitting an ideal trip and making a run for the money in the stretch. He’s a must use on the exacta and trifecta plays, especially at 10/1 with the talented Leparoux at the helm.
One must also not overlook the disappointing but talented Asiatic Boy, who has won Group 2 races on the dirt at Nad Al Sheba and finished second in both the Suburban Handicap (Grade 2) and Stephen Foster (Grade 1). My only problem with Asiatic Boy is that if he could barely hang on to defeat Einstein after that horse had a “trip from hell” in the Stephen Foster, than how could I anticipate victory against a significantly more talented horse like Rachel? Jockey Alan Garcia, who recently was granted a stay from his impending suspension following Vineyard Haven’s drfitwood performance in the King’s Bishop, once again takes the call at attractive odds of 10/1.
And then there’s Bullsbay. I think my affinity for Tiznow offspring is well documented enough that I need not go into great detail. Add to that the fact that he runs for my favorite trainer, Graham Motion, and it he becomes a strong heart play. If I distance myself from those feelings, he actually looks like a potential bounce candidate on paper, following a career best effort in the Whitney. A review of his running lines, however, shows that he seems to demonstrate that trademark Tiznow toughness in the stretch, giving a solid account of himself nearly every time he goes to post. This is perhaps best evidenced by his 13 in-the-money finishes in 18 lifetime races, including 7 victories.
My gut tells me the filly will rise to the occasion just like she has done in each of the challenges she’s faced since last fall. A quick comparison of her final times over the 1 1/8 mile distance that the Woodward is contested over shows that she finished in just over 1:46 in the Mother Goose, and though she was aided greatly by a blistering early pace set by Flashing and Malibu Prayer, it’s important to remember that she finished the final 1/16 “under wraps.” Might she have been capable of a sub 1:46 final time? Also note that she finished the Haskell in just over 1:47 despite running over a tremendously sloppy surface. True, the track was sealed, but those times jump off the page. Clearly this is a distance she relishes.
By comparison, her biggest threats have been a few steps slower in terms of final times (never an apples to apples thing, mind you). It’s a Bird took the Oaklawn Handicap over the same distance in 1:48 and 4, and Macho Again’s Stephen Foster victory clocked in at 1:49 and 3. That’s a fairly substantial differentiation in terms of final times, even if those races were contested at different tracks and conditions.
One thing is for sure, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be an attractive betting opportunity by any stretch of the imagination, so if you’re playing for a price you’d obviously have to go against her. But why be silly and play against such an immensely talented runner? Would you really be “happy” if you beat her? I guess the answer to that question depends on how much you are willing to risk. The value will be there if you can beat her.
We must also remind ourselves that horses are not machines, and it’s important to note that even the best of the best suffer defeats. I know the pro Zenyatta crowd foams at the mouth whenever anyone says that, but they must restrain themselves by realizing the obvious fact that Rachel is already out classing anything Zenyatta has attempted by taking on older males, and thus exposes herself to significantly more risk of defeat. If Rachel were taking the same protected path as Zenyatta, she’d be running against 3-year-old fillies again in a 4 or 5 horse field and offering nothing of historical or compelling interest to the sport. I love ‘em both, but there’s no comparison in terms of accomplishments attained this year.
Instead, what we have on our hands is a filly once again on the cusp of re-writing history the moment she steps on the track.
I’ll look for Rachel to take command at the top of the stretch and put the issue to rest with several hundred yards to go. At some point in time she is bound to get tested in the stretch, and it would be logical and fair to assume that may well happen in this her first effort against older males. I just have this feeling that whatever they challenge her with she’ll have an answer for. She seems to be that once-in-a-blue-moon type of talent. I’m not one to run around proclaiming her the “greatest ever” quite yet, as I think that’s a disservice to the numerous entrenched “greats” of the sport whose accomplishments would then be unwisely overlooked and unfairly forgotten, but she seems to me to be clearly the most talented horse in training at the moment and arguably the best we’ve seen in at least the last several years.
As much as folks love to hate him for what they perceive to be hubris, the simple fact is that her owner and wealthy vintner Jess Jackson has given fans reason to rejoice these past two years by virtue of bringing back Curlin as a 4-year-old and racing Rachel in historically significant situations that she likely otherwise would have avoided. The result is that we are once again staring history in the face. Fifty-five previous runnings of the Woodward and counting. No filly winners. Expect all of that to change with Rachel on Saturday.
“Win one for history, Rachel. Win one for your fans. Win just one for the vintner!”
Belmont champion Summer Bird (Birdstone) romped home to victory in the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga on Saturday afternoon, defeating highly regarded competitors Quality Road, Charitable Man, and Kensei.
The “other bird” now suddenly finds himself atop the 3-year-old colt division, having firmly rested that title from Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird – at least for the moment.
Big congratulations go out to trainer Tim Ice, who has always believed that his fabulous looking colt deserved a shot to face the best and has not been hesitant to run him against the most formidable foes around in both Rachel Alexandra and Quality Road.
We mentioned in the Haskell write-up that Tim was a stand-up guy that we’d be cheering for from here on out. After all the hype about Quality Road , and after all the attention that folks like me gave Kensei and Charitable Man, it was the good guy in Tim Ice that came out on top. What a year he’s having! 35 years-old and already has a Belmont and a Travers under his belt, not to mention most likely a 3-year-old male Eclipse Award.
Trainer Tim Ice and owners of Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes champion Summer Bird pose for a picture with our family on the morning of the 2009 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.
Hats off to the fantastic job they’ve done with the son of Birdstone, who seems to be following in his daddy’s footsteps with his victories in the Belmont and Travers.
Summer Bird showed the same tenacity in capturing the Travers that had allowed him to battle gamely for 2nd against Rachel in the Haskell, powering home in 2:02.83. Hold Me Back finished in 2nd with Quality Road and Charitable Man rounding out the superfecta.
As for what might be next? Well, no official word has been released, and likely won’t until they have a chance to check out Summer Bird following the race and ensure everything is sound. I will share that I asked Tim back in July what his long term goals were, and he mentioned the Travers first and foremost, but then also said that they were considering the Goodwood as a prep race for the Breeders’ Cup this fall.
Meanwhile, the procession of winners who last out ran into the dominant filly Rachel Alexandra and then returned to win continues with each passing day. Earlier in the day, the last filly to have defeated Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, returned to the winner’s circle by prevailing in the Victory Ride (Grade 3). The list of runners who have returned from facing Rachel to prevail next out just continues to grow and grow, and has become an angle that handicappers cannot ignore. Sara Louise, Gabby’s Golden Gal, Take the Points, Flashing – these are the runners in recent memory to have turned defeat at the hands of Rachel the Great into victory next out.
This is important because one might expect that horses would regress after being defeated as soundly as Rachel has done to them. Instead, the direct opposite has been true, and the filly winds up being flattered nearly every weekend as her legend continues to build.
It serves as a nice buffer to the “she hasn’t beaten anybody” claims that seem to get tossed around about all of the top horses when you can quickly look back and reference a growing pool of recent foes who have acquitted themselves on the race track upon returning from their “blind date with Rachel.”
Unfortunately, Munnings, third place finisher behind both Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird in the Haskell at Monmouth Park, was not able to continue the string of runners to turn a Rachel encounter into a triumphant return. Vineyard Haven, that tenacious son of Lido Palace who at one point in his 2-year-old campaign adorned the top of nearly every “Derby watch list” one could find, proved that a return to Saratoga was indeed just what the doctor ordered. He powered home on top, but wound up drifting out badly in the lane, only to be disqualified from the win following a determined run from Capt. Candyman Can, who wound up being placed on top by the stewards after an inquiry into the bumper-car action of Vineyard Haven late in the stretch.
He may be an elder statesmen at 10-years-old and counting, but fan favorite Better Talk Now might have just enough left in those wise old legs of his to kick on home in the stretch of Saturday’s Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. The former turf champion may have his work cut out for him, but if he can rekindle some of that magic that saw him pull the upset in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf, this just might be the day his fans have been waiting years to see.
To do so, he’ll need to be able to prevail against the likes of Grand Couturier, and the sneakily dangerous Lauro, as well as a host of other contenders including Telling, American, Gentleman Chester, Quijano, Rising Moon, Americain, and Brass Hat. The field sets up like this:
Grand Couturier (GB) – Alan Garcia/ R. Ribaudo (3/1*)
Rising Moon – Kent Desormeaux/ R. Dutrow Jr. (12/1)
Americain – J.R. Velazquez/ Todd Pletcher ( 9/2)
Telling – Javier Castellano/ S. Hobby (20/1)
Quijano (GER) - A. Starke/ P. Schiergen (5/1)
Brass Hat – Calvin Borel/ W. Bradley (12/1)
Musketier (GER) – J.C. Jones/ R.L. Attfield (6/1)
First things first – I’ve got to confess that Better Talk Now is one of my favorite horses of all time. I know he’s not quite the same runner who triumphed in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf, but there’s simply so much to love about this horse. Amy and I had the pleasure of meeting him several weeks ago when photographer Julie Ziek invited us to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stables at Fair Hill, MD. “Blackie” was as advertised – hamming it up for the cameras following a light workout and being his usual frisky self while folks attempted to give him a bath.
He has a peculiar habit of crossing his back legs – as if to say “yes, I know I’m a rock star.” Even more entertaining is the fact that he seems to become even more of a ham when knows people are watching. Just being in his presence though, you could instantly feel you were with a champion. There’s just something special about him. You can’t help but LOVE this guy!
I guess that’s why he has such a high volume of admirers. No matter where you turn in the world of horse racing, from the folks on Cindy Dulay’s horse-races.net forums, to the folks on the new TVG Community site - you’re bound to run into diehard Better Talk Now fans. He might not get the headlines of runners like Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta, but he’s got an army of fans amongst those who appreciate what it takes to be competing at a Grade 1 level at 10-years-old.
And who better for Better Talk Now to be in the care of than Graham Motion? I can honestly say that for horse lovers out there, do yourself a favor and take a visit to his stable – it will do your soul good. With all of the press that the bad elements of the game like Paragallo have received in recent months, it’s comforting to know that there are folks out there who put the care of their horses first and foremost. I feel horrible even uttering the name Paragallo in the same sentence as Motion. The two could not be more opposite; the proverbial “night and day.”
Herringswell Stables is a top class operation. You can see it in the eyes of their charges. You walk into the barn and all of their animals are beaming with joy. Put plainly, “Blackie” could not be in better care, and it’s no surprise to me that he’s maintained soundness over such a long career. All one need to see is how well cared for he is.
Looking over the race, I really do think he’s got a big shot here. He’s been knocking on the door, and you just have this feeling building up inside of you that he’s going to deliver one more great memory to his fans. I haven’t felt strongly that he had a chance to win any of his previous 2009 efforts, but he’s run very well in each of them, including over softer footing. Call it a hunch or whatever you will – my gut tells me today will be Blackie’s day.
As for the rest of the field, there’s much to like about both Lauro and Quijano as well. Lauro had the misfortune of having to zero in on Presious Passion when that runner ran away with the United Nations. While folks tend to remember the 20 length lead early on, remember that it was Lauro running well late who finished second. I’d expect Lauro to be more forwardly placed in the Sword Dancer. I’m not sure if he’ll be on the lead, but he’ll probably be close, which could set him up for a nice trip.
Quijano is a multiple Group One winner in his own right, and if you’re like me you always give a little added dose of respect to the European bred runners in turf events. Quijano and Musketier both chased Gio Ponti (whom I contend at least belongs in the discussion for Horse of the Year, provided he wins out through the Breeders’ Cup Turf this fall) last time out and ran respectably, so look for them to make some noise in the Sword Dancer as well. I look for Musketier and Lauro to be involved early on, with Quijano and Americain putting in their runs followed by Grand Couturier and Better Talk Now.
I’m playing my heart in this one. I know that’s not a smart thing to do from a “handicapping” pespective, but when you’ve got one of your favorite horses running for one of your favorite horsemen, you’ve just got to beleive it’s possible. I’m guessing that Better Talk Now will out finish Lauro and Quijano in the stretch and send his fans into shrieking fits of euphoria. It’s been a long time since the 2007 Manhattan when he last found the winner’s cirlce. A victory today would be a highlight of the summer for yours truly even (if this is at all possible) rivalling for me the victories of Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness and Haskell.
It’s not like you can count Graham Motion out up at Saratoga either…Bullsbay, anyone?
I’ll go 4/3,8/ 1,3,6,7,8,10 on the $1 trifecta for a total cost of $10.
Obviously then I’m using Lauro and Quijano in the place position, and adding in Grand Couturier, Americain, Musketier, and the longshot Telling to round out the superfecta.
That being said, there’s only one horse I’ll be rooting for.
It’s official. Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont. This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown. Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress).
First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again. You know that he wanted to showcase his filly in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory. Like I’ve said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra. In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow; sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage. In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made.
The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net. Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking. Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today. The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between. What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.
The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this:
“I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”
Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt. Nobody wants to see that. It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts. Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)? They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated. I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe. How’d that one turn out? How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar? I just don’t get it. Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back? Because she’s a “she”? See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being. The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt. If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well.
The next line of comments goes something like this:
“I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”
Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this. Almost. Do people even think before they speak? She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown? For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner. Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness? Did I miss something? I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything? If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof. You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not.
Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness? Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win? That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown. That’s what makes it special. Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing. I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears. Same goes here. You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful? Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.
Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin??? That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.
When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.” Oh really? Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history. Forgive me, then. It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner. On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness? Yeah…didn’t think so. If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen. Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.
Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either. He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding. It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime. I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07. “Curlin got beat by a girl!” Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was). Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ? Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl. How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?).
The last line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:
“Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”
When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all.
Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness. How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me. Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples? Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?
Consider the following stats. Here are the opening 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness. Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:
See that? Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness! And why was that exactly? Well, several reasons. In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead. Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30. That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead. The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing.
In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way. She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns. Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be. Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate. The result was a speed duel. Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner. It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man. That’s what made her win so impressive. It shouldn’t have happened. Most horses would not have pulled it off. In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83, 1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta.
So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like? Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness. I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome. Eyes can be deceiving though. Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.
Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.” Would he? Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different. The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her. That’s it. That’s the only certain conclusion one can make. The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas. I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).
Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date. Would those races be exciting? Most definitely! But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat. Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone.
In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off. Rest up, baby girl. There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond. Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga. I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself. Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….
The Saturday card at legendary Saratoga is headlined by 4 graded stakes races in a row in races seven through ten. Each race will be televised on ABC from 4:00 PM - 6:00 PM EDT and will comprise an all-stakes pick 4 sequence. The races are also part of the Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series.
Specifically we’ve got the Grade 1 Diana (race 7), the Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt (race 8), the Grade 1 Go For Wand (race 9), and the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap (race 10). It goes without saying that we’ve got some good horses to watch today, although the weather could still play a factor – primarily with the Diana since it’s on turf.
Race 7 – The Grade 1 Diana:
#1 Bit of Whimsy (Eibar Coa) – 12/1
#2 Dynaforce (Kent Desormeaux) – 4/1
#3 Bayou’s Lassie (Robby Albarado) -12/1
#4 Wait a While (Rafael Bejarano) – 3/1
#5 Vacare (Edgar Prado) - 9/2
#6 Criminologist (John Velaszquez) – 8/1
#7 Rutherienne (Garrett Gomez) – 6/1
#8 Forever Together (Julien Leparoux) – 15/1
#9 Chestoria (Cornelio Velasquez) – 20/1
#10 Lady Digby (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1
The 70th running of the Diana for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the Saratoga turf is perhaps the most difficult of the 4 stakes races on the card to get a handle on. This of course is because it’s being run on the grass at the spa – which has seen some significant rainfall in recent days and has had numerous races moved off the grass in an effort to preserve the course for the major events of the weekend. You really have to handicap this race assuming two different possibilities. Either the track has dried out enough to be considered firm or the horses will be going to post with a bit softer footing. That may seem trivial – but it could totally change the complexion of the race. For starters, some of the heavier hitters in here like Wait a While may in fact scratch if the turf comes up anything other than “firm.”
Assuming we don’t have a rash of scratches, Wait a While looks to be the horse to beat. Bejarano has flown in from California to be here for this race, and why not? All this daughter of Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) has done is win 10 of 20 lifetime starts for a whopping $1.8 million in earnings. Still, be careful about accepting luke warm favorites at Saratoga. They don’t call this place the graveyard of favorites for nothing, and if that turf is soft it may indeed favor some other runners.
From a race setup, I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be on the lead here regardless of how the track is rated. There’s a number of horses who could be just behind her, including Dynaforce and Wait a While. I also believe that Lady Digby is going to have to move a bit quicker than desired out of the gate due to the extreme outside post position. Bit of Whimsy could be in that group as well breaking from the rail. Vacare and Criminologist won’t be too far behind, and Rutherienne and Forever Together will likely play the role of closer today.
I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be pressured enough by the stalkers that she fades before the wire, but do note that she handled Vacare on a wet track 3 races back (not to mention Dreaming of Anna as well). In other words, I wouldn’t totally disrespect her here. She could well hit the bottom of the trifectas. If the track is playing dry, I expect the order of finish to be: Wait a While, Vacare, Bayou’s Lassie. If instead it comes up a bit wet (as is expected), I think you really have to boost the odds of Criminologist and Dynaforce. Criminologist is the clear “horse for the course” play as she owns 2 victories over the Saratoga turf. It’s pretty hard to ignore that at 8/1. Forever Together could be interesting in here at a price. She’s not exactly proven herself against this level of competition, but she did class-up well against Ventura and Lady of Venice last time out and appears to have really taken to the lawn. Lady Digby could’ve used a better post position, but perhaps if nothing else she’s assured herself of a clean break.
Selections:
Firm: 4/3,5/3,5,7,8 ($6)
Wet: 6/2.3/ 2,3,4,5 ($6)
Race 8 – The Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt:
#1 Thor’s Echo (Corey Nakatani) - 6/1
#2 First Defence (Javier Castellano) - 4/1
#3 Black Seventeen (Aaron Gryder) – 9/2
#4 Sammarta (Channing Hill) – 15/1
#5 Abraaj (Alan Garcia) – 3/1
#6 Bustin Stones (Edgar Prado) – 2/1*
#7 E Z Warrior (Kent Desormeaux) – 15/1
The 24th running of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap for three-year-olds and upward sprinting 6 furlongs on the main track drew a small field of 7, but we’ve got a couple of horses here to make it competitive. Really this looks like a two horse race to me on paper. In the one corner you’ve got the undefeated Bustin Stones exiting his first Grade 1 victory and stepping into the toughest field he’s faced. So far he’s been a need the lead type runner that has wired every field he’s faced. You get the feeling that horses like Black Seventeen, Sammarco, and others won’t let him get away with that so easily today. Of course, he may well make the whole thing academic and run ‘em all out of there shoes. Still, I think you can look towards the other likely contender, Abraaj to get the better trip here today sitting just off the pace.
Abraaj may not have a Grade 1 victory in his belt, but that horse that beat him last time out (Benny the Bull) is the best sprinter in the country – and Abraaj lost by less than half a length to him. I’ll give him the nod here. Thor’s Echo and First Defence have every reason to wind up in the money today as well. Of those two I slightly prefer First Defence who has cracked 2 of three exactas so far this year. With such a short field you’d be perfectly sane to add a few more underneath than what I’m giving out. You know me though- always trying to cut corners and pinch pennies where I can.
Selections:
5/2,6/1,2,6 ($4)
Race 9 - The Grade 1 Go For Wand Handicap:
#1 Ginger Punch (Rafael Bejarano) – 1/2*
#2 Inside Passage (Eibar Coa) – 15/1
#3 Indescribable (Kent Desormeaux) – 13/1
#4 Moon Catcher (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
#5 Copper State (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 10/1
#6 Runway Rosie (R. Maragh) – 8/1
#7 Over Under (Robby Albarado) – 20/1
#1A Spring Waltz (Javier Castellano) – 1/2*
The 55thrunning of the Go For Wand for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track is the closest thing to a “free square” folks playing the all-stakes pick 4 or the pick 6 will get on this card. You just dont’ see anything close to super mare Ginger Punch in here. I think she could toy withthis field and win going away. The funny thing is, the second best horse on paper is part of a coupled entry with her (#1A Spring Waltz).
What this means is that we’ll probably have these two bet down to something like 1/5 by post time, effectively killing the prospects at high payouts in the pick 4 (more’s the pitty). So, if you think you’ve spotted a chink in her armor and can beat her – by all means try to do so as you should be well rewarded if right. I tend to prefer the bitter taste of chalk in this one allthe way. I’m not going to make this one more difficult than it needs to be. Indescribable, Runway Rosie, and Moon Catcher could threaten for minor awards along with Spring Waltz.
Selections:
1/3,5,6/3,5,6 ($6)
Race 10 – The Grade 1 Whitney Handicap
#1 Commentator (Javier Velazquez) – 3/1
#2 Solar Flare (Gabriel Saez) – 4/1
#3 Notional (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
#4 Cowtown Cat (Rafael Bejarano) – 20/1
#5 Merchant Marine (R.Maragh) – 15/1
#6 Tasteyville (M. Luzzi) – 12/1
#7 Rising Moon (Cornelio Velasquez) – 10/1
#8 Grasshopper (Robby Albarado) – 10/1
#9 A.P. Arrow (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1
#10 Student Council (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 6/1
#11 Timber Reserve (Javier Castellano) – 20/1
We wind up the all-stakes pick 4 sequence with the 81st running of the Whitney Handicap for three-year-olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track. Rising Moon is the horse I’m interested in seeing in the post parade. A lung infection may have caused this one the Suburban Handicap last out and if back to top form as trainer Richard Dutrow says (I know, I know – it’s Dutrow), than this one can easily turn the tables on rival Solar Flare in my opinion. Stop and think about it. If not for the lung infection you’d be looking at a horse with 5 consecutive wins in the books – and we’re getting him at 10/1? Where do I sign up?
Commentator looks like a solid candidate in here as well. The thing with him is that he’s 7 years-old now and may not be running at his best distance. He’s going to have to gun it from the rail, and there is other speed in here that should be making him earn it (namely #6 Tasteyville). That should set things up nicely for Rising Moon if he’s healthy, and Solar Flare if not. There’s a slew of directions to go underneath. Horses like Grasshopper, A.P. Arrow, and Student Council are all usable. I prefer Grasshopper and A. P. arrow of that group due to their previous success here at Saratoga. Drilling down even further, of those two I’ll go with Grasshopper as one of my top choices underneath - even though he’s burned me numerous times since that battle with Street Sense in the Travers last August.
Selections:
7/2,8/1,2,8,9 ($6)
So, as far as formulating a pick 4 ticket for this all-stakes sequence, let’s see if we can’t get lucky with the following:
All-Stakes Pick 4 ($24)
Race 7: 2,4,5,6
Race 8: 5,6
Race 9: 1
Race 10: 1,2,7
Obviously if you have some deeper pockets you can add some additional horses in. I thought the first leg was the most wide-open and opted for the deepest coverage there. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the racing action from Saratoga.
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