Derby Rankings: Hot Shots! Part Deux

9 03 2010

With less than 2 months to go before the famed “run for the roses” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to once again put pen to paper in what figures to be another futile attempt to make some sense of the contenders we’ve seen thus far.  The weekend past was a tale of two emotions: “Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times.”  We watched the emergence of a star-in-the-making in Awesome Act’s powerful Gotham performance.  Then we watched in disbelief as Blind Luck failed to catch Crisp at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, despite running her heart out in the stretch.

The defeat of Blind Luck means that I had to drop her off my Derby rankings list, especially since I only go 10 deep in the actual rankings.  I still think she’s as good as the top 10 colts around, and would expect a rebound next time out.  Real estate, however, becomes precious with so little time ahead.  The loss all but assures that if she travels to Churchill Downs, it will be to run in the Oaks rather than the Derby.  Personally, I’ll be holding out hope that she throttles the Oaks field and then points for the Preakness or Belmont.  A guy can wish, can’t he?

As for Awesome Act’s performance, let’s just say that heading into post he looked like a million bucks. I had advised playing against him in our selections for the Gotham that morning, but once anyone got a look at him in the post parade, it’s hard to imagine they didn’t have a fairly good idea of what was about to happen.  I wound up posting on Twitter that “if he runs as good as he looks, the Gotham might be over already.”

Sure enough, it was.

The weekend ahead figures to be equally as compelling.  The San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel await.  Of course, the most important “prep” races happening this weekend aren’t likely to involve 3-year-olds.  The return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies and that of 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita will be the biggest shows in town, and rightly so.  And just in time to start breaking out the grills and go exploring this vast expanse we’ve not seen for many months, formerly buried in snow, that locals refer to as “outside.”

Yes, there’s much to be excited about this time of year.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated rankings of the contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1. Eskendereya

No change at the top spot.  Todd Pletcher’s  son of Giant’s Causeway catapulted to the top of many Derby watch lists after his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth.  Up next will be the Florida Derby.  At first I didn’t think I’d keep him on top for long, but now it’s starting to seem like it will take a pretty big performance in one of the Grade 1 preps to knock him from this position.  I’ve warmed to him.  He’s a legitimate #1 on such lists based on what we’ve seen from the crop overall.

2. Odysseus

A wise man once told me to always remember the horse you rode in on.  All kidding aside, I’m typically loyal to a fault, and this may well be another fait accompli for yours truly.  There was something Curlin-esque about this colt when I first saw him in a replay against allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  On the surface, he’s done nothing that warrants this aggressive a ranking, having not earned a single dollar of the all-important graded stakes money he’ll need to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.  That being said, he’s slated to take on Super Saver and others in the Tampa Bay Derby.  If he’s anywhere near the horse I think he is, we’ll see it this weekend.  I’m trusting my gut on this one.  I think this is a race horse here, and a pretty darn good one at that.

3.  Lookin at Lucky

If he had stayed in California and not tried the dirt in any of his prep races, I was ready to keep ‘Lucky out of my top 3 positions all season long.  Now that Bob Baffert seems committed to having Lucky try the dirt in the Rebel, I’m interpreting the decision as a confident, bold move by a trainer who thinks he may have something special.  I applaud the decision by Baffert.  The synthetic-to-dirt angle was huge for several runners prepping for the Derby last season, and if not for the freak injury to I Want Revenge, may have been one of the primary story lines about last year’s Derby winner.  Ironically, in a round about way and due to his initial races at Woodbine, the synthetic-to-dirt angle did ultimately factor into the victory of 50/1 longshot Mine That Bird.  Many people that I trust insist this is a special horse.  If he wins big on the dirt in the Rebel against what figures to be a salty field, Eskendereya could have some company at the top of the list.  Also note that ‘Lucky will be wearing a hood for the first time as Baffert tries the blinkers-on approach.

4. Awesome Act

I struggled with where to properly rank the overnight sensation that has invaded our shores from across the pond.  Looked sensational prior to the Gotham and then ran like a horse that meant serious business.  Was the Gotham the toughest race we’ve ever seen?  Absolutely not, and there’s no question he’ll get tested by better horses in his next starts, but the point I’m focusing on his how “much the best” he was.  This guy is a legitimate Derby contender, and he’s got a jockey in Julien Leparoux that you just knew was going to wind up on a big time contender sooner or later.  Full disclosure?  Though I advocated playing against him in the Gotham, he’s probably my 2nd favorite on this list behind Odysseus.

5. Caracortado

I keep thinking of former Eagles and Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter whenever I think of this horse.  “All he does is win horse races.” Now that Lookin at Lucky has shipped east to Arkansas for the Rebel, “Scarface” finds himself the top dog in California at the moment.  I expected him to challenge Lucky if he had remained in California, and it looks like he should have a much easier time now if they chose to keep him local.  It’ll be hard to rank a horse higher until we see them on dirt, but this guy is a proven winner and figures to remain so for the foreseeable future.

If Cris Carter had been a thoroughbred, all he'd do is win horse races.

6. Rule

Probably the horse who suffers the most from the “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome that bloggers like me are self-described masters at.  Todd Pletcher’s run away winner of the Sam F. Davis will likely point to the Wood or the Florida Derby.  Considering Eskendereya is likely Florida Derby bound, my money would be on the Wood as his final destination.

7. Discreetly Mine

The most difficult of the ubiquitous Pletcher clan to put a finger on.  Folks either love him or hate him.  I think he beat 3 quality horses in Ron the Greek, Tempted to Tapit, and Drosselmeyer in the Risen Star.  Up next is likely the Louisiana Derby.  I’m still not sure if he’ll want 10 furlongs, or if he’ll be able to rate effectively, but if he answers positively to both of those questions he’s certainly talented enough to be a factor in the Derby.  In keeping with the theme of discretion in this horse’s name, I’ll confide that I sneakily swapped positions with Rule and Discreetly Mine since our initial rankings were published.

8. Dublin

Sort of an odd addition to the list considering he didn’t race this past weekend and was defeated in his most recent start.  Why the vertical move up my list then?  I toyed with ranking the 1st and 2nd place finishers of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in this spot.  The winner, Conveyance, does not appear to be pointing to any local races though, while the place horse, Dublin, will now get to run into yet another Bob Baffert monster in Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel.  I thought Dublin might’ve been the best horse in the Southwest, both before and after the race was run.  Could give Lucky some fits in the Rebel.

9. Conveyance

Another of the Cris Carter type runners that simply goes out and wins races.  The undefeated son Indian Charlie opened his career out west with victories that included the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 16.  The victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn proved he could handle the conventional dirt.  Isn’t that the knock we horseplayers always use on west coast horses until they come east?  Okay, so now that he’s bested that challenge, what next?  Well, thanks to Baffert sending Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Conveyance has seemingly been officially relegated to “plan B” status.  He’ll be headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his next start if current indications prove true.

10.  Sidney’s Candy

I maintain that this could be any kind of horse.  The sensational winner of the San Vicente was at one point rumored to be considering the Gotham at Aqueduct.  Obviously that didn’t happen, and it appears the son of Candy Ride may be the best remaining challenger for Caracortado out of the California crop for the moment while Lucky visits the south.

Others to watch:

I’m keeping my eyes on several horses, including those we mentioned in our initial rankings like Dave in Dixie, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  I guess you could add Alphie’s Bet to that list following his performance in the Sham.

One horse you may notice I haven’t mentioned yet is Super Saver.  I know many are extremely high on him and one might think that fresh off of the experience of publicly doubting Awesome Act I might be inclined to be accepting of such highly touted horses, but my thoughts remain that I need to see something for 2010 from this horse before I add him to the list.

Guess what?  He gets a chance to prove that to you and me this weekend, so the wait won’t be long.  It just so happens it’s my boy Odysseus he’s running against, and it goes without saying where my heart will be in that race.  Hopefully my wallet doesn’t follow with reckless abandon.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

March Thoroughbred Madness

4 03 2010

Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration.  For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground.  At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!

Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time.  That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”

True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks.  For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms.  Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!

For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however,  it’s starting to become desperation time.  Little room for error is afforded the contestants.  One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.

Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3′s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again.  More on that in a moment).

That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail.  One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:

“Let’s hear it for New York!  These streets will make you feel brand new.  Big lights will inspire you…”

(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)

I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?

The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Three Day Rush (4/1)
  2. Yawanna Twist (5/1)
  3. Nacho Friend (8/1)
  4. Awesome Act (7/2*)
  5. I’ve Got The Fever (12/1)
  6. Peppi Knows (10/1)
  7. Shrimp Dancer (12/1)
  8. Turf Melody (8/1)
  9. Afleet Again (20/1)
  10. Wow Wow Wow (6/1)

Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux.   The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds.  We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif.  What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start.  If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.

Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line.  That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway.  Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park.  I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.

Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line.  I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board.  The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint.   His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him.  I’m going to make him my top choice here.

Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN.  I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1.  If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds?  The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.

Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST.  The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct.  You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?

Selections:

  • #6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
  • # 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
  • # 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)

I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays.  Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).

The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Marcello
  2. The Program
  3. Outlaw Man
  4. El Mirage King
  5. Boulder Creek
  6. Kettle River
  7. Setsuko
  8. Wolf Tail
  9. Nextdoorneighbor
  10. Alphie’s Bet

Note: Odds were not yet available as of this writing, but will be updated once they are set.

Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post?  Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes.  For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.

The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM.   That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.

We’ll start with the obvious.  KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes.  The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse.  We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try.  Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement.  His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.”  I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.

THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.  If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back.  More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December.  He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.

If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN?  Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows.  I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example).  Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer.  Remember that guy?  Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time.  Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt.  I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.

SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago.  He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races.  He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference).  I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here.  The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO.  He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners.  Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.

Selections:

  • #6 Kettle River
  • #2 The Program
  • #3 Outlaw Man

I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.

Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races.  Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

The Pamplemousse and Quality Road get the job done.

1 03 2009

Track announcer Trevor Denman’s call was spot on as The Pamplemousse prepared to cross the finish line in Saturday’s running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita Park;

“…they would need to sprout wings to catch him…”

 

Indeed. The impressive son of Kafwain with the funny name (pronounced “pample-moose” in case, like me, your first inclination was to make it more of a “pimple mouse” enunciation) has now pulled off 3 straight victories in a row, with each one being an improvement on the last.   Julio Canani’s grapefruit has only one test left to pass out west on the road to the Kentucky Derby when he faces off against Pioneer of the Nile and (perhaps) Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Derby in April. 

The Pamplemousse is a horse that has become quite popular with fans following the action out in California.  Visually, he’s an impressive colt that looks big and well put together to me.  If you haven’t had a chance to get up close and personal with him, you’re in luck; Mary Forney has been documenting him in the morning workouts and getting some always entertaining Julio Canani camera time and it’s all available on youtube.

 

Take the Points proved something to me by running fairly well for 2nd in the Sham.  Prior to the race I had mentioned that I’m not fond of horses shipping from east to west (especially not on such short notice), but he showed up and ran extremely well.  This might be a horse to keep an eye on as well.  Not many have the versatility to run big on both dirt and synthetics. I think this guy has a future in front of him.  Colonel John’s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff got up for third.

The challenge The Pamplemousse will likely have to overcome one of these days is to his front running, gate to wire style.  The only thing we need to see from this colt is that he can relax.  However, isn’t it somewhat more impressive that he’s doing this over the Santa Anita Pro Ride?  It’s not the most speed favoring track in recent memory and tends to play more like a turf course.   Plus, all he does is run the competition out of their shoes.  You’ve got to love that, but I’m still a bit cautious about his chances come the First Saturday in May. 

 

 

In the other major action of the day, Quality Road turned in a bit of a shocker in the Fountain of Youth.  Several of you had mentioned this horse as a runner you expected big things from, so I’m hoping there were a few cashed tickets out there amongst the faithful.  Me, I got burned by him as I expected him to be part of a hot pace.  That didn’t really develop right away, and by the time it did Quality Road was actually in good position to benefit from it stalking just behind This One’s for Phil.

My choice, Beethoven, ran on for third, but never really threatened.  Quality Road won in impressive fashion, absolutely blowing away This One’s for Phil in the stretch.  The win is the third quality performance that the aptly named Quality Road has turned out thus far in his career, and it looks like the son of Elusive Quality should be able to get some extra distance if trainer James Jerkens decides to point him towards either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial in early April.

I also thought Theregoesjojo was running very well late and it will be interesting to see where trainer Ken McPeek points this guy next.   For now though, Quality Road definitely looks like a colt to keep an eye on in the coming months.  Obviously the Pamplemousse was already on most everyone’s radar, but it’s always nice to welcome a relatively new colt to the discussion, so come on down Quality Road and pull up a chair. 

Next weekend should bring even more intrigue as we get to see Haynesfield, Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  Things are starting to get interesting, that’s for sure.  If you’re curious about my top 10 Derby contenders at the moment, I’d rank ‘em like this:

  1. Old Fashioned
  2. Dunkirk
  3. Pioneer of the Nile
  4. Friesan Fire
  5. The Pamplemousse
  6. Patena (must live up to the hype to prove this position though)
  7. Quality Road (rocketing up my list)
  8. Haynesfield (will get toughest test yet in the Gotham, but has earned this ranking thus far)
  9. Imperial Council (is he the real deal?)
  10. Stardom Bound (get the feeling she’ll head to the Oaks instead of the Derby)

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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita, The Pamplemousse

The Pamplemousse looks to “Wow” in the Sham

27 02 2009

You knew it would simply be impossible for me to resist a gratuitous Sham Wow reference when covering Saturday’s 9th running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita.  Twelve runners have gathered for the Sham to take on trainer Julio Canani’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, including a likely late shipper from the east in Todd Pletcher’s colt Take the Points.  The field for the Sham sets up like this:

Past Performances for the Sham are available here

  1. Hi Flyin Indy (A. Quinonez/E. Harty) 30/1
  2. Smart Bid (R. Bejarano/G. Motion) 8/1
  3. Tiz True (A. Gryder/ D. Hofmans) 30/1
  4. Lifeline SCRATCHED
  5. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canani) 9/5*
  6. Balfour Park (B. Blank/C. Lewis) 30/1
  7. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/E. Harty) 7/2
  8. Bourbon Bay (J. Rosario/N. Drysdale) 15/1
  9. Ventana (J. Rios/B. Baffert) 15/1
  10.  Mark S the Cooler (J. Talamo/D. O’Neill) 15/1
  11.  Unbridled Roman (M. Smith/ C. Paasch) 12/1
  12.  Take the Points (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1

The Pamplemousse ran huge last time out after getting the perfect trip in the San Rafael (G3) on 1/17.   The son of Kafwain (Cherokee Run) has improved on the Beyer scale in each of his 4 lifetime races.  He’ll be stretching out an extra furlong today in the 1 1/8 mile Sham, but also owns a victory at 1 1/16 miles, so distance would not seem to be a concern.  A more pressing question might be what kind of pace scenario the grapefruit (in case you’ve ever wondered what “Pamplemousse” means) gets on Saturday.  Regardless, he’s clearly the horse to beat and is definitely eligible of another gate to wire romp if he gets loose on the lead.

The obvious rival will be the recent maiden graduate and full brother to Colonel John, the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff.  After struggling a bit in his first four races, he seemingly put it all together last out against obviously softer competition.  He’ll get the acid test today as he moves up to face tougher, although it’s not like this field is loaded with stakes winners.   Only the favorite can lay claim to that honor.  Besides The Pamplemousse, the only runners in the field with victories outside of the maiden ranks are Smart Bid and Take the Points.   Obviously he’s a thread if he runs back to his last Beyer figure. 

Looking over the rest of the field, Smart Bid is a horse I think will love the distance of the Sham, but it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll take to the Pro Ride surface.  If you’re looking for a positive sign on his otherwise forgettable debut over synthetics last July, note that at least he was moving decently late, as indicated by the “mild rally” note in his comment line.  He’s coming off back to back wins, is trained by one of my favorites in Graham Motion, and obviously shares sires with a certain chestnut colt you might say I’m somewhat endeared to.  All of that and 8/1 make him a very attractive play underneath.

Take the Points is a horse who looks like a major threat on paper, but I’m probably going to pass at odds anything like 3/1.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a nice colt and he can definitely hit the board;  I’m just not fond of horses shipping from east to west.  Especially when they don’t have any workouts posted on the surface.  It’s a crap-shoot, and the odds to me don’t favor the risk/reward potential. 

Ventana is a runner who might be worth giving another look.  He was favored last out on the morning line in the San Vicente, something that many horseplayers scoffed at.  He ran 4th that day, but was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and a couple of the horses in that race (namely the winning filly Evita Argentina and runner up Leedstheway) are horses who should do well this year.  He offered no value in the San Vicente as chalk, but now the opposite is true as he’s 15/1 on the morning line.  I think when all is said and done he is a classier horse than many of the runners in here, so I’ll be using him underneath as well.

Bourbon Bay is another I think could be sneaky in here at long odds.  While his previous running has been on the grass for trainer Neil Drysdale, I like that he’s improved with each start.  Another move forward puts him right in contention in this field.   He handled stakes company rather well last November in the Generous (G3) at Hollywood.  Still, he’s been off for essentially 3 months, so his prospects at winning are rather slim.   As an underneath play on the exotics he should offer some value though. 

I’ll eat chalk here and play The Pamplemousse for the win.  I don’t expect very good odds on him though, so we’ll likely pass on the win bet and focus instead on the 10 cent Superfecta.   Ill use Smart Bid, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Ventana in place.  Add to them Bourbon Bay and Take the Points for show.  I’ll toss in Unbridled Roman and Mark S the Cooler for 4th.

Selections:

$.10 Superfecta: 5/2,7,9/2,7,8,9,12/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($6.00)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita


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