Breeders’ Cup Classic Selections

5 11 2009

Finally – it’s Classic time.  The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million.  Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.

Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite.  Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin.  Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretch that at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator. 

Will things be different this year?  It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night.  Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta?  Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won?   We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.

Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to our TBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature.  Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet.  Contact Handride if you have any questions about how to enter your picks.  I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly. 

Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend.  Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches.  Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.

Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:

  1. Mine That Bird (12/1)
  2. Colonel John (12/1)
  3. Summer Bird (9/2)
  4. Zenyatta (5/2*)
  5. Twice Over (20/1)
  6. Richard’s Kid (12/1)
  7. Gio Ponti (12/1)
  8. Einstein (12/1)
  9. Girolamo (20/1)
  10.  Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  11.  Regal Ransom (20/1)
  12.  Quality Road (12/1)
  13.  Awesome Gem (30/1)

“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric.  Looks like it’s on today…”  (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)

MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derby back in May.  Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.  He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here.  He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.

COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him.  He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart.  It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge.  He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors.  If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance.  For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that. 

SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field.  This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces.  The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park.  Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets.  Am I worried about the synthetics?  Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing.  Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her.  Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado.  He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised.  Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.

ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?”  The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now.  This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing.  If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell.  My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007.  I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.”  The rest, quite literally, is history.  I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail.  If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire.  You KNOW she’ll be flying late. 

TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line.  I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here?  We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1).  He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race.  Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then.  Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.

RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando.  In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets. 

GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment.  So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf?  I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance.  The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December.  If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances.  He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.

EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years.  I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness.  Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing.  His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.”  A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle.  Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here. 

GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy.  He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.  For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise.  I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom.  He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before.  That might be asking just a tad too much here.

RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic.  The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts.  Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm).  In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero.  The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here.  In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen.  As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).

REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year.  Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2).  He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead.  Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here.  Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.

QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009.  This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race.  The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York.  I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on.  It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor.  One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces. 

AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile.  I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.

How do I see this race playing out?  I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on .  As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her.  RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER.  This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back. 

I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages.  I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob.  Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line.  No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given.  God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.

Selections:

  • #10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  • #4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
  • #3 Summer Bird (9/2)

Best of luck to all!  May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember.  Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well.  For quick access, you can locate those posts here.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Colonel John, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Mine That Bird, Quality Road, Santa Anita, Summer Bird, TBA, Zenyatta

Zenyatta’s return; Undefeated mare favored in the Milady Handicap

22 05 2009

One good lady deserves another. It’s only fitting and proper.  Of course,in the cases of the phenoms that are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, “good” is a rather modest choice of words, but I’ll trust the expression is not lost upon the reader.  After witnessing history with Rachel Alexandra’s triumph in the Preakness last weekend, we return this weekend with the undefeated Zenyatta, or as I like to call her “Slow Cheetah“,  making her 2009 debut in the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park.  If things hold up, these two ladies might be on a collision course for Breeders’ Cup weekend this October, and when all is said and done they might have a Horse of the Year title on the line between them.  For now though, each runner has more immediate challenges to concern themselves with.

It’s been over half a year since we’ve seen the 5-year-old daughter of Street Cry rolling to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last October at Santa Anita.   This weekend she’ll put her undefeated record on the line against fellow stablemate Life Is Sweet, who is exiting 3 consecutive graded stakes victories of her own and clearly in top form.  You can see the story lines running through this race already.  Life Is Sweet comes into the race in peak condition.  Zenyatta comes off the shelf after a sustained layoff.  If they both run to their previous class (and there’s no reason to suspect they’ll do otherwise) It looks very much like the Milady will turn into a two horse affair.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Gambler’s Justice (M. Garcia/ B. Spawr) 20/1
  • #2 Taste’s Sis (D. Sorenson/M. Polanco) 30/1
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (J. Talamo/ P. Biancone) 20/1
  • #4 Dawn After Dawn (J. Rosario/ J. Sadler) 10/1
  • #5 Champagne Eyes (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 8/1
  • #6 Bel Air Sizzle (R. Bejarano/ B. Abrams) 20/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (G. Gomez/ J. Shirreffs) 5/2
  • #8 Hot n’ Dusty (A. Solis/ B. Abrams) 50/1  Note: likely to scratch
  • #9 Zenyatta (M.Smith/ J. Shirreffs) 3/5*

Before Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta can make it a two horse race, however, they’ll need to wear down the early speed.  Luckily for them, it appears on paper that ample speed has signed on here to suit their respective closing styles.  #1 Gambler’s Justice along the rail and #2 Taste’s Sis both appear to be speedy types that should be forwardly placed earlier on.   #5 Champagne Eyes is also likely to be a part of the pace, although she may attempt to press from just behind the rail runner.  #4 Dawn After Dawn should be stalking early on in about 3rd or 4th position, anywhere from 2-4 lengths behind the early pace. 

As the field begins to turn into the stretch, the real race should begin, and it may well come down to who gets first jump between Life Is Sweet and Zenyatta.  Ultimately, I think you’ve got to give Zenyatta the slight edge here, despite the long layoff.  We’ve simply never seen a situation that she can’t overcome.  She’s thrived at Hollywood Park ever since breaking her maiden there on a Thursday night in November of 2007.   Moreover, she’s a perfect 6 for 6 at the 1 1/16 mile distance, which appears to be her comfort zone.  Admittedly, she’s perfect at everything she’s attempted thus far, so that last bit might not seem to matter much at first glance, but if this race were being run at either a shorter 1 mile distance or a longer 1 1/8 mile distance then perhaps there would be reason to suspect some vulnerability.  Conversely, it’s debatable whether 1 1/16 miles is the preferred distance for Life Is Sweet.  Surely she can clearly score at that distance, but she might be a better runner at 1 1/8 miles.

I’ll play Zenyatta on top, even though she’ll be a huge favorite.  Underneath I’ll use Life Is Sweet, who I think will make it very close but most likely come up just short at the wire.   With the two Barry Abrams runners (#6 Bel Air Sizzle and #8 Hot n’ Dusty) likely to scratch, I’ll focus underneath on the longshot #3 Allicansayis Wow, who managed to prevail last out against optional claimers despite clipping heels in the stretch. I’d expect a much improved effort this time out in only her 2nd start in the U.S.  I’ll also toss in Champagne Eyes, Dawn After Dawn, and the rail runner Gambler’s Justice (just in case she holds on for a slice). 

I’m keeping the ticket on the cheap side here, but if you feel confident with a particular combination it might be a good idea to hammer it through the betting windows 10 to 20 times, as the straight exacta is not likely to return much of a payout.

Selections:

  • #9  Zenyatta (3/5*)
  • #7 Life Is Sweet (5/2)
  • #3 Allicansayis Wow (20/1)

$1 Trifecta  9/7/1,3,4,5 =$4

Best of luck to everyone, and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta highlight Oaks Day on Friday

30 04 2009

A common recipe for success with travelling bands is to have another act “open” for you, warming up the crowd and getting them ready for the main event.  With the 2009 Kentucky Derby looming just hours away, the two best female horses in the country will take to the stage to do  a whole lot more than just open for the boys the following day.  When all is said and done, they just might be the highlight of the entire racing weekend. 

In a day filled with marquee racing, we begin by focusing our attention on the 24th running of the Grade 2 Louisville going 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill main track.  In a bit of a surprising move (to me at least), the connections of Zenyatta decided to throw racing fans a serious bone by bringing the “50 foot woman” back to kick off her 2009 5-year-old campaign right here on the Oaks day undercard.   I think I speak for every racing fan when I say “we’ll take it!”  Not since her scintillating performance in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic have we seen her race.  Six full months on the shelf resting, working, watching, and waiting.  Zenyatta doesn’t sleep…she waits!

After so much time on the shelf, you’ll forgive her if she comes out of the gate a bit rusty.  Of course she’s also travelled east away from the friendly confines of the Southern California racing circuit, where she has throttled everything they’ve thrown at her.  For some reason folks are whispering that might be an angle to take into consideration and perhaps play against her.   I think the layoff is the one and only concern with her, as we’ve seen her muscle her way through in dominating style on true dirt before in the 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.  In other words, I’ve got no worries about her on dirt.  

 

She is a bad, bad lady, and losing simply isn’t in her vocabulary.  With Curlin out of the picture in 2009, I’ve gravitated towards Zenyatta as my favorite horse in racing.   After all, she’s my slow cheetah.  :)

Even though she’ll be heavy chalk, I like her to prevail.  One Caroline will be the one she’s got to run down in the stretch, and with potential lone speed that runner could be a handful….or she could just be the next target for Zenyatta to set her sights on and devour in the stretch.   I’ll play Zenyatta over One Caroline in the exacta.   For the trifecta I’ll add in  Unbridled Belle to the place position, and then try to find a smidgen of value by adding in Swift Temper, Miss Isella,  and Modification on the bottom of the ticket in show position.

The Louisville is part of the Oaks Day Pick 6 sequence, but is not included in the late Pick 4 that ends on the feature race.   I’m not sure you can consider Zenyatta a true “free square” thanks to the layoff concern, but she’s still a solid play and obviously you can’t leave her off.  If you can afford to, I’d stretch a little and cover One Caroline just in case she gets away with easy splits out in front.  Ultimately I think Swift Temper will keep One Caroline honest and help set things up for Zenyatta to be rolling in the stretch, but just in case…well, you get the picture. 

Selections for the G2 Louisville:

$1 Trifecta:  2/4,8/ 1,3,4,6,8 = $8

*********************************************************

The feature race of the afternoon is the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, with 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the main dirt track for a total purse of $500,000.  All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra, the filly phenom who has the horse racing world buzzing with her uber impressive 2009 campaign thus far, including victories in the Fair Ground Oaks and the Fantasy (Grade 2 races each).  She’s 3 for 3 this year and on a 4 for 4 roll going back  to late 2008.   The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is good enough that I’m on record as saying she’d be a contender in the Derby had her connections decided to enter her there.  

 

Note:  For those of you who, like me, are not able to receive HRTV in your local viewing area, the Oaks is scheduled to be shown on Bravo as well, with a post time of 5:45PM ET.

To be fair, she’s got some competition here in the form of both Flying Spur on the outside, and Justwhistledixie to her immediate inside.  There’s also Gabby’s Golden Gal in the 4 hole with some speed, so Rachel likely won’t have as easy a time on the lead as she did in the Fair Grounds Oaks or the Fantasy.  Still, she doesn’t need the early lead to win.  I could see her sitting patiently in second if another runner wants to go lights out, and then making her move as they enter the final turn. 

Ultimately I believe rather strongly that Rachel Alexandra is the true “free square”  of the day in terms of the Pick 6 sequence (if such a thing as a “free square” can even be said to exist in horse racing, which is highly debatable at least).  I just can’t see any of these runners besting her.  Not on this big a stage.   I’ll play the chalk on top with Flying Spur and Justwhistledixie in place.  I’ll add in Gabby’s Golden Gal and Be Fair for show, as well as longshot Stone Legacy, if only because she looks like a closer and there’s ample speed in here for her to chase.

Selections for the G1 Oaks: 

$1 Trifecta:  6/ 5,8/ 2,3,4,5,8 = $8

*********************************************************

As for the rest of the undercard, and in particular the other races of the Pick 4 sequence that ends with Oaks in race 11, I’d say the theme should be to spread fairly deep.  I could make a case for 7 of the 12 runners in The Edgewood (race 8), and likewise could see opportunities for 7 of the 10 runners in the Grade 3 Alysheba (race 9).  Thankfully, the Grade 3 American Turf (race 10) looks a bit more formfull on paper, and I think you can dwindle it down to 3 logical contenders:  Stormalory, Battle of Hastings, and Bittel Road.   Ultimately I think you’ve got to take a stab at the Pick 4 pool thanks to the 50 cent minimum wager opportunity.   The ticket I’m considering playing looks like this at the moment:

Oaks Day $.50 Late Pick 4:

2,4,7,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8/ 1,3,6/ 6  = $36

Best of luck to all, and of course to the jockeys, horses, and the numerous folks on the backside who help make it all happen, here’s hoping for a safe and exciting day for all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Zenyatta tribute video – Slow Cheetah

28 11 2008

It’s been a while since I made a tribute video, but with nothing to do the day after Thanksgiving I figured it was time to put one together.  I’m still working on a Curlin video for his 2008 campaign, but have not finalized yet.  Instead, I’m featuring my tribute to the amazing filly Zenyatta, set to the tune of “Slow Cheetah” by the Red Hot Chili Peppers

 

 

Some folks might take issue with the selection of a song with the word “slow” in the title, but such concern is superficial.  I felt the track conveyed much of the passion fans of Zenyatta have experienced throughout  the last year.  In fact, my biggest problem was trying to cram as many race replays into the video as possible without it becoming boring.  Hopefully the video editing is up to par from what folks expect. 

Several parts in particular stood out to me – especially the part about her being “misunderstood” and “dressed like a wedding cake” while one of her more flattering profile pictures is displayed.  I even snuck in some screenshots of this blog during some fitting lyrics.  Wherever possible I tried to match the lyrics with what was happening in the photos and in the overall story I was trying to tell.

Now that Curlin has retired, the emptiness in my heart will be filled with horses like Zenyatta, who will enter 2009 as my favorite horse in racing.  I feel I’ve got a special bond with her as I remember her maiden race well.  I think I’ve only missed one of her races (the allowance race in her 2nd effort) live on TVG.  I doubt I’ll miss any more next year.

Let me know what you think – I always try to make these as exciting and passionate as I can.  Thanks to all the folks who have put up pictures and video of Zenyatta around the web.  I remember just several months ago there was a definite lack of Zenyatta media available.  Now that she’s a “living legend” that has thankfully changed.

Who knows, might Zenyatta continue in the footsteps of the greatness that was Ruffian or the undefeated excellence of Personal Ensign next year?  She’ll certainly have a chance.  Here’s hoping this time next year I’m making a new tribute video to her.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Zenyatta


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