Ten Memories From Breeders’ Cup 2010

7 11 2010

“We sat and heard in silence. What other expression had we that was not meant for such an awful universe of battle?” – Lt Frank Haskell –  Gettysburg, PA – July 3, 1863

It’s hard to believe that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is already a historical memory.  With so much anticipation and build-up, I’m surprised each year as the races rattle off and the weekend winds down just how quickly the whole affair can happen.  This year, like all others before, was filled with memories; some of them favorable, some of them far more disconcerting.   On the plus side, attendance and betting handle were up from 2009.  On the downside the races didn’t quite end in the story-book fashion many were hoping for.  As we wind down from the weekend that was, I thought we might take a quick look back at 10 memories that will stay with us from the Breeders’ Cup 2010.

  • Jockey Fight 2010:

It’s a shame, but you sort of have to begin here. Things got off to a strange start in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano exchanged blows following the running of the  Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The moment was captured live on ESPN and instantly went viral – becoming the first sustained memory of the championship weekend.  From Castellano’s seemingly stunning left jab to the enraged look in Borel’s eyes as he was held back and then removed from the scene.

The entire ordeal was both bizarre and absurd.   This couldn’t have been the start the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup were hoping for, but there’s a line of thinking that suggests any exposure is good exposure, and if nothing else the novelty of two height-challenged individuals resorting to fisticuffs in the winner’s circle certainly attracted the attention of folks who would otherwise would not have cared.  The real tragedy was the number of times throughout the continuing racing coverage that “jockeyfight” was harped upon.  Additionally, the high drama surrounding the entire affair should’ve given us a clue as to the proper hunch play for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the following day.

  • The Big 10 can’t play defense:

Sadly, horse racing fans have to be acutely aware of this fact, but any who didn’t already know that the teams of the Big 10 have a ways to go as far as being able to actually prevent opposing offenses from scoring at will got a healthy reality check about midway through the racing action on Saturday afternoon.   Just as ESPN was switching it’s coverage from ESPN2  to it’s main channel, fans were greeted with a stunning Overtime battle between Illinois and Michigan.

Yes, those two powerhouses fighting for middle-of-the-pack status within the conference wound up going through 3 OT periods before a winner was decided.  During that time racing fans the world over began to form organized resistance as it appeared we would not be able to see the running of the Juvenile.  Thankfully the heavens parted, Michigan sealed the game, and we wound up getting to see Uncle Mo’s brilliant performance (more on that in a moment) in stunning HD quality…and there was much rejoicing.

  • Rough Sailing breaking down:

Probably the saddest of all memories from the past weekend was the injury suffered by longshot Rough Sailing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The horse fell, dropping Napravnk from the saddle and then had to be taken away in an ambulance. Not long afterwards came word that the horse was euthanized. Ironically, the winning horse in the race, Tam Valour’s Pluck, was very near Rough Sailing when he fell, and jockey Garrett Gomez deserves credit for steering Pluck away from what seemed to be a collision in the making once Napravnik was on the ground.  A scary moment that could’ve turned out even worse if not for some quick thinking and reflexes.   Sadly, as far as Rough Sailing is concerned, there was no silver lining.   RIP.

  • Bet the longshots!

Right out of the gate we were greeted with a glimpse of what was to come when Eldaafer scored in the Marathon and returned $23.20 to win.  The only favorite that won on the first day was Awesome Feather, who still managed to return $10.40 worth of value to her supporters.  By the time the weekend was through we had witnessed More Than Real scoring at $29.20 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dangerous Midge at $19.00 in the Turf, and bank breakers Dakota Phone ($77.40) and Shared Account ($94.00) in the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, respectively.

Shared Account’s victory in particular being memorable as it came over the highly regarded and heavily favored Midday – and may have ultimately led to the decision of Arc winner Workforce being scratched from the BC Turf.  Suffice to say, if you played value horses over the favorites throughout the weekend, chances are you were highly rewarded.   Personally I didn’t catch either of the whoppers, and the victory by Dakota Phone bounced me from the Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

  • Uncle Mo exploding in the stretch to win the Juvenile:

The question everyone wants answered with the yearly running of the Juvenile is whether a 2-year-old exists that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the division. While it’s still a long way to go until the “First Saturday in May”,  many folks will no doubt be looking back to Saturday’s performance from Uncle Mo as an early indication of a potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite.  Mo’ exploded in the stretch when asked by jockey John Velazquez and stopped the clock on the 1 1/16 mile race at 1:42.60, good enough for a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for the son of Indian Charlie.

Only time will tell if Mo is able to continue his form cycle into next season, but it’s interesting to note that the last horse use the race as a stepping stone to a victorious Derby campaign the following season, Street Sense, also won the Juvenile over the main track at Churchill.  Admittedly there may have been a speed bias favoring the rail during Street Sense’s06 Juvenile score, but for Uncle Mo it seemed like a simple case of being the far superior horse in the field.

  • Dakota Phone noses out Morning Line:

The score that essentially crushed my Pick 4 dreams in the final races of the championship weekend, the 37/1 victory by Dakota Phone was undboutedly a key component to a memorable weekend for those lucky enough to have covered him in the exotics.  The son of Zavata got up just in time to nose out the tepid early favorite, aptly named Morning Line, by a nose in the photo finish.

Personally, I had spread 6 horses deep to cover this race on my tickets, and like many folks I was reminded that in contentious Breeders’ Cup races, sometimes going 6 deep just isn’t enough.  I suppose it’s a bit of a handicapping lesson; if you’ve got no real opinion in a race and are covering that many runners, keep in mind that “anything can happen”, and in the case of the Breeders’ Cup, “anything” probably will happen.  Hats off to anyone that used this horse.

  • Unrivaled Belle best of the ladies:

In a race that featured the 3 biggest names of the division other than Zenyatta (Blind Luck, Life At Ten, and Havre De Grace), Unrivalled Belle may have been somewhat under the radar to many folks.  While clearly capable on her best stuff, it was assumed by most that one of the more highly touted runners would be able to reel her in during the stretch run.  Several handicappers did select Belle, however, most notably (in my opinion) the much adored Christina Olivares of TVG.

Wish I would’ve paid that selection more attention, but in truth by the time I caught this on the DVR I was a bit “opinioned out” and essentially not listening to anything more being said.  Big mistake.  The daughter of Unrivaled Song took command as the field entered the turn and then pulled away to a convincing 1 3/4 length score.  Blind Luck showed the heart of a champion but could not make up the ground that separated the two.

  • Life At Ten – the scratch that should’ve been:

As the field headed to post in the 2010 Ladies’ Classic, it was clear that something was wrong with Life at Ten.  A blind man could’ve seen it.  How this horse went to post is beyond me. She was the surest toss of the entire weekend once she was observed in the post parade.  Of course, that was little comfort to those of us who had confidently wagered on her in the multi-race exotics.  Todd Pletcher had himself a pretty good Breeders’ Cup weekend, but Life At Ten’s debacle is likely the memory that will haunt him the most.

Thankfully she appears to be okay and not seriously injured, but had something even more disastrous occurred I don’t think the game would’ve been able to avoid the proverbial backlash.  When folks who have never seen a horse race in their lives are asking questions like “why are they letting that horse run?”  you know things aren’t going well.

  • Goldikova makes it 3 in a row:

One has to wonder if somewhere in the back of her mind Goldikova wasn’t tired of playing second fiddle on the center stage for Breeders’ Cup 2010?   The champion proved she was every bit the super horse that we’ve made her out to be in earning her unprecedented 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup victory in the TVG Mile.  For a while it seemed like she may be in a bad spot, and turning for home I remember thinking “this is going to take everything you have.”  And yet, it didn’t, as the daughter o Anabaa pulled away to a clear 1 3/4 length victory over her primary foe, the Eclipse Award winning Gio Ponti.

For his part, Gio Ponti can now claim that if not for two of the greatest mares the sport has had in recent memory running the races of their lives, it might be he we are fawning over for consecutive Breeders’ Cup victories.  It was Gio, after all, who trailed the great Zenyatta during her 2010 Classic score.  The big question everyone is hoping for a positive answer to is whether Goldikova now tries to make it 4 in a row in 2011?  Considering she’s now won over 10% of the Turf Mile events ever run at the Breeders’ Cup, I’d expect it may still be a possibility.

  • Blame over Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic photo finish

I’m torn on this moment and a bit confused as to what my proper feelings should be.  On the one hand I’ve liked Blame all year and thought he may be the only horse capable of holding off Zenyatta in deep stertch.  In fact, I even went so far as to predict a photo finish between the two in our pre-race handicapping selections.  On the other hand, despite the valiant effort, I’d be kidding if I claimed to not be a bit heart broken.

There was a feeling in the air, even as Zenyatta went to post amidst the roar of the crowd and began her patented “dancing” routine, that things were going to be desperate.  Early on in the race I thought she looked like she was not enjoying herself.  She’s always in the back of the pack but she was so far back I worried that she may wind up being pulled up.  Turning for home it seemed as if once again the great mare was going to find a way to thunder down the center of the track and into the history books.  She would have – if not for an equally game contender in Blame.   Someone must’ve forget to tell Blame that he was supposed to play 2nd fiddle to the great one, and he simply did what he knows to do best in holding off a living legend at the wire for the score.

Deflating for Zenyatta lovers?  Sure.  Indicative that Zenyatta is not the super horse of legend we’ve made her out to be?  Hardly.  In fact, I’d argue that the 2010 Classic was one of Zenyatta’s best performances given how absolutely out of it she seemed as the field entered the final turn.   A mile into the race she was in 11th position.  At the top of the stretch she was already in 3rd and rolling.  She may have lost the head bob, but she gained so much more in terms of respect and appreciation.  We learned that we don’t need perfection – as who amongst us can claim to be perfect in anything – in order to appreciate greatness.


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Categories : Blame, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

How One Moment Can Captivate a Nation

25 06 2010

The story line runs near and dear to any racing fan’s heart.  A sport that has been long cherished and held in high regard around the world struggling to find relevance on the national stage here in the U.S.  Fans of the sport long feeling somewhat shunned and mocked by the general populace.  Only once every few years does even the prospect of having a chance to claim a sliver of the spotlight present itself – and only then when something truly remarkable is deemed imminent.

Earlier this week in South Africa, just such a moment occurred when Landon Donovan nailed the game winner against Algeria, propelling the U.S. World Cup team to the knockout portion of the tournament in the  round of 16.

I’ll spare the obvious Miracle on ice comparisons – if only because Algerian soccer is not quite the enemy that Soviet hockey was.  Certainly the moment invokes memories of the passion and excitement coursing through the land each time the U.S. drove a puck into the Russian net.

The sudden surge of interest and enthusiasm in the happenings of a sport long dismissed by Americans as “boring”, and (in so many words) “unmanly” has caught some of guard.  Not me.

We’ve been saying this for years.  The reason people love sport –  all sport – is because deep down in our hearts we are fascinated by watching the human spirit (or in our case the equine spirit) overcome adversity.  Every sport – given the right venue – is capable of captivating the people’s attention.  It just takes the right combination of accessibility, relevance, and of course heart-stopping dramatic moments.

When the U.S. began their World Cup campaign, they faced off against mighty England on a Saturday afternoon.  The internet was ablaze with excitement.  Twitter even went to so far as to add nifty little icons if you typed in a country’s name or the phrase  ”#worldcup”  into a message.  The match earned a 7.6 rating, whereas the longer broadcast that included pre-game coverage earned a 6.1 rating (making it the 5th highest rated FIFA broadcast since 1994).

The most viewed moment in American soccer history continues to be the shirtless romp of Brandi Chastain and Team USA beating China in the 1997 Women’s WC Final.  A whopping 18 million viewers tuned in for that epic moment – proving what horse racing fans have known ever since our leading ladies Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra burst onto the scene:  we may think of sports as being “manly” – but there might be something to this whole “girl power” thing after all.

What about that goal-heard-round-the-world by Landon Donovan that propelled the U.S. to the next round and elicited the response across the nation captured above?  While being dubbed the “most viewed soccer telecast in U.S. history” (despite the obvious math problems when compared to the Brandi Chastain moment above), the match drew just a 4.6  rating – reaching perhaps 6 million viewers overall.

Contrast that with what was generally considered a rather down year for the Triple Crown season in thoroughbred racing.  The Preakness stakes – won by Lookin at Lucky over Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver - earned 8.4 million viewers.  If the sources I’ve linked to are to be trusted, that means that a rather nondescript 2010 rendition of the Preakness still earned over 2 million more viewers than the greatest and “most watched” soccer moment in a generation within the U.S.  I find that fascinating given the general “racing is dead” talk and the ubiquitous, inescapable references to the World Cup everywhere one turns.

Now, it must be said – the U.S. match against Algeria came on a weekday morning – not exactly prime time television – which makes their ratings all the more astounding.  Most of racings largest moments happen on a Saturday – which tends to draw increased viewership (there’s a reason the NFL targeted Sunday for their main “game day”).  No doubt we’ll be looking at another huge draw for soccer when the U.S. takes on Ghana on Saturday.

What about when times are good for racing?   When Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness in 2009 – a race in which the favorite was not the Kentucky Derby champion (Mine That Bird), but rather a filly attempting to become the first of her kind in decades to prevail in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown - it earned a 7.9 rating (and reportedly 10.9 million viewers) – the second highest rating for the Preakness broadcast in almost 20 years.  Smarty Jones set the bar even higher back in 1994, earning a 9.4 rating.

Perhaps we should not be so fast to throw in the towel and trumpet the demise of racing?  I’m sure folks affiliated with FIFA are euphoric and will look to capitalize on their success.  While the popularity of thoroughbred racing is indeed declining as the decades march on, we must remember that there is indeed a “base” or “core” from which to build upon for the future.  Pessimism will get us nowhere.

As a sport, soccer has progressed with a definitive goal in mind over the last two decades – to aggressively carve out a slice of relevance and to earn a shot at capturing the attention of the nation.  They’ve dedicated themselves to securing a new generation of fans through efforts like youth soccer, and have embraced popular mediums like video gaming to drum up interest, familiarity, and enthusiasm (as anyone who has played the outstanding FIFA franchise games can attest).

And note – while it takes quite a bit of effort to nurture a growing following, you don’t even need ALL the stars to align themselves – as our matches in the World Cup have been marred by 90 minute scoring droughts, controversial decisions from officials, and those blasted, damnable vuvuzelas.

We’ve been over all of this before, of course – as each time the Olympics come around I find myself shouting at the television screen about competitions I know next to nothing about (I’m not a pretty sight in ice skates – nor in track and field uniforms).  The other evening my wife and I watched with amusement as our 1-year-old bellowed unintelligible yells of defiance directed towards the ineptness and futility of the Baltimore Orioles.  Obviously it’s a part of who we are from very early on in our development.  It’s as if our brains are firing up to declare: “something is happening – something exciting – I want to have a vested interest in this!”

Make no mistake – soccer is experiencing a surge in popularity the likes of which it has never seen in this nation.  Everyone I spoke with at work this week tended to have wishes for the team in their hearts, on their lips, and in their minds. Only time will tell if the attention is fleeting or if it has real  staying power.  We in thoroughbred racing no all too well about fleeting glory.  One factor that will no doubt play a key role is how the U.S. performs against Ghana on Saturday, and then, God-willing, against any future opponents they may face.  A strong run could propel the sport to a sustained (or semi-sustained) golden age of popularity.

Likewise – with some improved foresight, a bit of luck, and the courage to aggressively carve out our own niche audience and build for the future – we might find ourselves thrust back into the national spotlight one day-  and hopefully for all the RIGHT reasons.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

The cream rises to the top

13 06 2010

Following a turbulent spring in which the 3-year-old division never really sorted itself out the way many of us had hoped – this Saturday provided an opportunity to establish a firm sense of where things stood among the ranks of older females and males.

Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra had been the subject of intense scrutiny and conjecture – as friends and foes alike pondered what had happened to the killer instinct with which the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro had dispatched her challengers over the course of her previous campaign.

Struggling in the stretch against the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle – who while good horses certainly did not appear to be “Rachel beaters” on paper headed into their contests with the champ – had left a foul taste in many folks mouths.  Tensions were running so high that there were calls for her to be retired – and even exercise jockey Dominic Terry wound up being replaced by Steve Asmussen following some sort of disagreement (Terry, it must be noted, was a fan favorite who routinely conversed over the internet with Rachel’s fans – so this author was sad to see him removed).

Then, of course, there was the looming specter of the “figure 8″ – the singular piece of equipment that had caused so much grief as it seemed that Asmussen was trying to alter the way in which Rachel Alexandra responded to the bit as well as when and where she would make her move while racing.

As noted by Sid Fernando – Rachel Alexandra did not wear the figure 8 when sent to post yesterday for the G2 Fleur de Lis.  The result, as may have been expected, was that the filly ran off the screen again, invoking memories of her victories last year in the Mother Goose, Haskell, and Kentucky Oaks.

While watching the race live, it may not have seemed such a foregone conclusion to her throngs of fans.  It looked for a moment like a repeat of what we had seen against Unrivaled Belle and Zardana.  Rachel collared Jessica is Back and moved to the front, but then Distinctive Dixie seemed poised to pounce on her.

It was then that something peculiar happened.  Rather than allow a “lesser” horse to surge past her as she had done both times this year, Rachel seemed to remember who she was, digging down deep to procure a semblance of that greatness.  She pulled away brilliantly in the stretch, and with a furlong to go the races was as good as over.

Full results chart from Equibase

The final margin put her at 10 1/2 lengths in front of Distinctive Dixie, crossing the wire in the 1 1/8 mile race in 1:48.78.   The distance and time are not insignificant as just 4 races later many of the top older males in the land would go the same route in the G1 Stephen Foster.

Comparing the two races directly is a bit difficult to do – as the Stephen Foster featured a full field of 11 runners who were quite comfortable setting  a much slower pace early on (:24.50 and :48.72 as opposed to the :23.93 and :47.25 of the Fleur de Lis).  Still, it’s noteworthy that when Blame stopped the clock after prevailing in the Stephen Foster, he did so almost half a second slower than Rachel at 1:49.37.

Take nothing away from Blame’s performance though.  He absolutely devoured the highly regarded Battle Plan in the stretch, overcoming a highly disadvantageous post position draw in the 11 hole in the process.

We noted headed into Preakness day that we thought Blame was a serious race horse who belonged in the discussion for the best older male in the handicap division – and this performance in the Stephen Foster clearly makes him a horse to keep an eye on as the season progresses towards the Breeders’ Cup championships this fall.

Of course these weren’t the only two horses making  strong appearances.  Thanks to imperfections of racing’s calendar you also had Rail Trip winning the G2 California Stakes at Hollywood Park.  Additionally, there was Life at Ten staging the upset over the aforementioned Unrivaled Belle in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, and Miss Singhsix prevailing in the G3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park (a race that you would be excused for thinking may not have existed, considering the total lack of coverage it received).

As if all this action were not enough – there’s still the undefeated super mare Zenyatta today at Hollywood Park in the G1 Vanity!  That’s right – the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and widely regarded greatest horse on the planet.  While it’s a bit odd to see such a horse running on a Sunday, I think it goes without saying that we’ll take our Zenyatta races any way we can get them.

Here’s hoping that advertising and marketing execs have been paying attention whenever the spine-tingling Breeders’ Cup commercials featuring Zenyatta’s ’09 Classic victory air – they are precisely what the sport needs!

Now, as ESPNs Jeremy Plonk has rightly pointed out – if only we could get all these horses together in a race (or two) – rather than spread out across the nation in races that tend to cannibalize the importance of each.

While I understand the criticism of the column linked to in the above statement – the one benefit of having so many races for the same division strung out across so many tracks on the same weekend may have been the reappearance of Rachel Alexandra.  That may have been exactly what she needed.

I still don’t think she’s ready to throw down with the likes of a Zenyatta – but it felt darn good to see her pull away in the stretch and “stick her tongue out” at the competition.

Now there’s only one thing left to do – get Zenyatta home on top in the Vanity to run that unbeaten streak to 17 for 17.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Blame, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Belmont State of Mind

6 06 2010

“I’m the new Sinatra and since I made it here I can make it anywhere.  Yeah they love me everywhere.”

Jasmine Villegas - who upset fans and horses alike with her god awful singing at Belmont on Saturday.

The above statement is contained in the opening lyrics of the Jay-Z/Alicia Keys hit “Empire State of Mind” – which in an ironic twist replaced the traditional singing of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”  on Saturday prior to the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.  With the original artists unable to attend, teen sensation Jasmine Villegas was called on  to offer her vocal skills to the crowd.  The result, at least from what we saw on the television broadcast, was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

How bad was it?

The performance was so brutal that ABC actually cut away from the unfolding catastrophe in order to go to commercial break.  A merciful decision that no doubt spared the eyeballs of countless viewers from being jabbed with writing utensils or other blunt objects.  Upon returning to the coverage, it was suggested that the beached-whale-with-a-hernia sounding notes had actually upset Make Music for Me (rather ironic, given the horse’s name).

Look, I don’t mean to be too harsh (especially towards a 16-year-old) – as I’m all for trying new things in an effort to connect more with the next generation. It’s just that the performance by Villegas actually set a new standard of “bad” for me – replacing such cherished moments as William Hung’s initial American Idol audition and Roseanne Barr’s rendition of the National Anthem.  What I find absolutely unbelievable are the celebrity chasers out there calling the performance “brilliant”. Either those pieces were written ahead of time or it proves that some folks are so obsessed with celebs that no matter what they do it will be referred to as brilliant.

The sub par effort  by the “star” Villegas may have been a bad omen for the heavy favorite in the Belmont as well; Ice Box.   The son of Pulpit would never quite get unwound in the stretch, finishing completely off the board in 8th place.  Nick Zito mentioned that we “hadn’t seen the real Ice Box today” in post race interviews.  Indeed – just as we hadn’t heard the real “Empire State of Mind” either.  I’m sure the pedestrian opening half-mile fractions set by First Dude didn’t help the situation – and of course it’s always possible that Ice Box was still sorting out in his head whether Villegas effort qualified as music or whether NYRA had been sacrificing moose live over the PA system in some sort of shocking cult ritual.  In that sense, it’s understandable that he didn’t show up with his best stuff.

Villegas and Ice Box weren’t the only ones turning in crappy performances though.   If I’m going to be a harsh critic, it’s only fair that I do the same with my own selections.  I didn’t have the winner of the Belmont anywhere on my radar going into the race.  In fact, I had called Drosselmeyer a “money burner” in a conversation with a work buddy earlier in the week (in my defense, Drosselmeyer had lost as favorite in 4 of his 8 lifetime races coming into the Belmont, so the description seemed to fit for the moment).  He and Uptowncharlybrown were complete toss-outs for me that I expected would be overbet at the windows.  I gave them no chance.

Full Results Chart from Equibase

We had noted earlier in the week that the Belmont needed a hero. Thankfully, Drosselmeyer was not affected by the off-key tone and butchered notes.  The son of Distorted Humor sports German sounding nomenclature inspired by The Nutcracker (“Herr Drosselmeyer”), so perhaps we should not have been surprised?  It is the Teutons after all who celebrate the musical talents of David Hasselhoff and persist in keeping reruns of ALF culturally relevant.

None of that previous history mattered as Drosselmeyer entered the post parade.  He looked absolutely regal with his chestnut coat showing a fine glow and his ears perked up suggesting readiness for a top performance.  If I had spent just a few more moments focusing on the trouble he had encountered in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Dwyer Stakes (Grade 2′s all), perhaps I could’ve cashed in on his 13-1 goodness?

Instead, I was stuck ripping up my First Dude and Ice Box themed tickets.  In that sense, I seem to share the fate of Villegas and Ice Box – an utter failure on Belmont Saturday!

But wait – there’s more!!!

Did anyone out there actually get to witness the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap?  Probably not, considering it wasn’t televised live anywhere.  I’m thinking there may have been a ripple in space-time that has opened up a series of tangent universes out there – where every conceivable possibility for the race has played itself out.  We seem to exist in one of  those bubbles in which an improbable outcome took place.  Winchester, an off the charts longshot, somehow managed to upset a defending 2009 Eclipse Award winner in Gio Ponti to win his second race in a row – proving that yes, definitively, Winchester is a repeater.

I don’t know who dropped the ball on this one, but to have an entire crew from ABC/ESPN on location covering the Belmont, and then to pay absolutely no attention to a Grade 1 turf race featuring the return of the top U.S. turf horse from the previous year?

Epic fail – perhaps even more so than Villegas, Ice Box, or my own god awful selections.

So where does the weekend leave us?  Just as expected, really – with more questions than answers.   I don’t think we have a clear picture of the 3-year-old division even now.  I’d still lean towards Lucky as the overall leader – but Drosselmeyer and Fly Down have moved into the discussion by finishing 1, 2 in the Belmont.  I really thought my boy First Dude was in good shape after the opening half mile – and I’d suspect we’ll see some more of him this summer as well – provided the dude abides.

Hopefully though we’ve seen the last of sub-par musical performances aimed at gen-next…and equally awful handicapping selections.

Hats off to the connections of Drosselmeyer for their big Belmont victory.  I sure hope SOMEBODY out there managed to take down that Pick 4 for $167k!!!!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown

Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

The Belmont needs a hero

30 05 2010

With one week to go until the 2010 Belmont Stakes, it’s time to get back in the saddle and start focusing on the race at hand.  Gone are the Derby and Preakness winners in Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky – and gone is most of the national media attention due to the absence of a Triple Crown being on the line.

With the 3-year-old division still essentially up for grabs – and with the bulk of the summer racing action yet to come – might the time be right for a colt to rise to the occasion?  Despite the lack of star power, the race itself could setup to be very intriguing.  The place horses from each of the first two Classics is back – Ice Box and First Dude.  Add into the mix dangerous looking runners like Fly Down and Stately Victor, and fan favorites Drosselmeyer and Uptowncharlybrown and suddenly you have the recipe for a pretty good betting race.

Here we take a humorous look at the plight of racing on the eve of the Belmont.  In this clip, an effeminate Setsuko plays the role of Otsu to Ice Box’s samurai – explaining the desperate situation and pleading with the son of Pulpit to return from the race triumphant.

It’s not quite Hitler and Odysseus – but few things are.

Enjoy!

Note:  If for some reason Youtube takes the above video down – which would be par for the course with my creations – there’s a backup version saved here on Daily Motion.

In case you’re wondering about the whole Otsu/Setsuko thing – no, I haven’t made one of my trademark faux pas and confused the gender of an effeminately named male again.  Think of it as a convenient (for this video clip) play on the fact that Setsuko is usually considered a female name in Japan.  I should also point out that no – I do not quite subscribe to the sentiments of Otsu/Setsuko in this video clip as I feel that Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down, and Stately Victor are all capable of winning the race.

Which brings us to the most important part of the post – our first chance to gauge public opinion and see where the loyalties are lining up for the big race on Saturday.  You know the drill – sound off like you’ve got a pair!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Selections for Black Eyed Susan Friday at Pimlico

13 05 2010

Those of you who have followed along here over the years know the drill this time of year.  Preakness week is when we go a little crazy and start doing some marathon blogging efforts to try to bring as much attention to the racing action at Pimlico as we possibly can.  Fortified with a healthy dose of Black Eyed Susan’s from this morning’s Alibi Breakfast at Old Hilltop, we’ve jumped right into the task at hand and are prepared to offer selections for ALL 13 races on Friday.  Saturday’s picks will be coming tomorrow night.

I’m following the standard “quick pick” format here – three selections for each race.  Where possible I’ve noted other runners I consider to have a serious chance at pulling off the victory.  I’d love to break them all down even more in-depth for you, but that can be a bit taxing with so many races to cover in so little time.

Before we begin, I need to do some quick shout-outs to folks:

  • To the folks at WOYK 1350AM (in particular Craig Lehman) for having me on this morning to talk horses.
  • To Ray Paulick - whom I bumped into today and was kind enough to relay that Satish Sanan (owner of my beloved Odysseus) was fond of the satirical parody video I did following the colt’s injury.  Made my entire day.
  • To Gary Quill, who I was able to bump into briefly today but sadly did not get the chance to converse with for long.  Gary – the work you do to bring attention to Maryland racing is commendable, my friend.
  • To Thorofan for giving me the privilege of posting their featured Preakness article.
  • To all of my fellow TBA bloggers for their continued devotion to covering the game.
  • To Tencentcielo for never fearing to “give his ten cents” and leading anyone willing to listen to numerous sweet scores
  • To Carrie Everly of Pimlico for, well, for being Carrie Everly!
  • To the folks at 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore for allowing me to spend the weekend with them “talking horses.”
  • To Derek Simon of YouBet.com for his awesome-terrific Preakness Betting Guide.  Derek allowed me the honor of contributing to his Kentucky Derby guide, and suffice to say I look forward to seeing what he puts together for the Belmont.
  • And of course, last but certainly not least, to all of you for continuing to fuel me with the inspiration necessary to keep this little venture going – especially in the darker days of the year when we don’t have Triple Crown races just around the corner to look forward to.  I’m forever indebted – and honored each time you visit.

Now, let us move forward, as the races – with all expedience – shall march upon us! (gratuitous Henry V quote)

Race 1:  Optional Claimer $25k N1X – 6 Furlongs
I’m playing to beat the favorite (#2 Yogi’ssplashofgold – 2/1) right out of the gate on Friday as I feel she may be vulnerable at the 6 furlong distance and better suited to 5 furlongs.
  • #7 I’llthinkofsumthin (5/1) – 7 wins at this distance, that’s 7 more than the favorite
  • #6 Tidal Change (9/2) – has a tendency to weaken late but might find this field easier to handle than last she faced
  • #5 Lucky You (3/1) – might best to use on the bottom of Exactas/Trifectas

 

Race 2: State-Bred Handicap $7500s – 1 1/16 Miles
Very tough race to decipher – even tougher to drill down to 3 selections. Lots of evenly matched horses on paper.
  • #6 Swear Allegiance (9/2) – has a “win every other race” style, and thus is due
  • #2 May One (4/1) – has fired from a 45+ day layoff in the past
  • #4 Goodness Greatness (8/1) – on her best stuff she can dance with these girls

 

Race 3: Optional Claimer $25k N2X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
A dreaded “turf sprint”.  These are not my strong suit. I’ll favor the runners from the inside post positions for now.  Also note that the favorite, #9 Norjac (8/5), has never been on the grass before, so I’ll play against the chalk once again here.
  • #1 Titanic Win (7/2) – have to excuse last race when he broke from the 11 hole
  • #3 California Cool (9/2) – ran into traffic trouble last out, before that had 3 straight wins
  • #2 Skeleton Crew (4/1) – had his career best effort at this track/distance in May ’09

 

Race 4: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
While this might seem a nondescript race at first glance, do note the appearance of numerous female jockey “legends.”  This one could get crazy as many of them haven’t raced in quite some time.
  • #5 Rasher (5/2) – should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs today
  • #11 Sun Dance Moon (5/1) – son of Malibu Moon must handle winners for 1st time
  • #2 Cleric (5/1) – has been in-the-money in 8 of 10 lifetime starts

 

Race 5: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
Unfortunately I’m on the chalk here in back-to-back races as far as my top selection goes.  Those responsible have been sacked.
  • #6 Back to Therapy (2/1) – riding 3 straight victories and has won 4 of last 5 starts
  • #8 Got It Covered (4/1) – Very nice debut victory last out and working like she means business
  • #3 Alwaysacontest (7/2) – switches to successful trainer (Damon Dilodovico)

 

Race 6: The Very One Stakes ($70k) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Another blasted turf sprint! My one rule of thumb in turf sprints is to always play anything trainer Linda Rice sends to post – and lucky for me she has 3 of them in this race!  I’d cover ‘em all.  Nobody gets horses ready for a turf sprint like Linda Rice.
  • #5 Ahvee’s Destiny (5/1) – expecting improvement in 2nd start of campaign and with Ramon Dominguez aboard
  • #11 Lady Rizzi (8/1) – offers solid value on the morning line and fits with this group nicely on paper – but must overcome outside post position draw
  • #7 Canadian Ballet (3/1) – has speed – which comes in handy in turf sprints

 

Race 7: Allowance $30k N1X – 1 1/16 Miles
One of the lease exciting races of the day to handicap.  The only horses I fear could beat my picks here are the 3 inside runners in posts 1, 2, and 3.
  • #7 Squabble (4/1) – hard trying type gets services of jockey Javier Castellano
  • #6 Lily Quatorze (8/1) – her daddy won the 1996 Preakness.  I’ve no clue who her dam was
  • #5 Pink Sand (7/2) – have a feeling she’ll like the slight cutback in distance today

 

Race 8: Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
The name says it all – another turf sprint and I’ve no Linda Rice horses to bank on.  Whatever shall we do?  Honestly, I could make a case for half the field in this one. The picks below are the ones I thought offered the most favorable risk/reward potential.
  • #11 Sacred Journey (10/1) – rolling the dice here, but he was close against Vineyard Haven last out, who would be heavily favored in this race
  • #10 Central City (5/1) – Just missed at the Grade 3 level last out vs. better
  • #1 Cardashian (12/1) – think it’s a mistake if he goes off anywhere near 12/1

 

Race 9: Ms. Pink Warrior Preakness Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The Ms. Preakness is usually a fun race to watch, even if it’s not the best wagering opportunity on the card.
  • #3 Cuff Me (4/5*) – the “Captain Obvious” selection
  • #6 Starlite Starbright (9/2) – heavily bet in Stakes debut, but was “caught in last stride” – very capable of pulling the mild upset
  • #7 Argent Affair (8/1) – has been in the Exacta in all 6 lifetime starts

 

Race 10: Allowance $26k N1X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Would you believe it…another turf sprint?  Must be my lucky day…or something like that…and it’s sandwiched right in the late Pick 4 sequence?  Somebody get Mike Gathagan on the phone – NOW!
  • #6  I Can Do It (10/1) – disclaimer time – I know someone connected with this horse, so it’s a bit of a “heart play” rather than an actual selection
  • #11 Phosphorescent (5/2) – would be the clear choice if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position
  • #4 Oh My Me My (8/1) – Hasn’t won since last August, but has many angles pointing to an improved performance

 

Race 11: The Skipat Stakes ($70k) – 6 Furlongs
I counted 5 horses I thought could win this race. Besides my top 3 selections listed below, I also think #1 Streetscape (15/1) and #6 Lights Off Annie (9/2) are also capable.
  • #8 All Giving (5/1) – with tons of speed in this race, I put the checkmark on this runner coming from just off the pace
  • #2 Sweet Goodbye (3/1) – hard not to like 10 wins in 15 starts
  • #9 Rightly So (5/2) – has been in-the-money in all 8 lifetime starts, but may run into a hot pace battle here – which could compromise her chances

 

Race 12: Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 Miles
The feature race of the afternoon.  Similar to the Skipat, I counted 5 horses with a shot in here. In addition to the 3 runners below, I’d give #5 Harissa (5/1) and #9 Diva Delite (8/1) a puncher’s chance.
  • #8 Tidal Pool (8/5) – Show horse from the G1 Kentucky Oaks has two solid efforts in a row against the top 3-year-old filly in the land (Blind Luck). Should find things slightly easier today
  • #2 Seeking The Title (5/1) – sneaky horse – expecting big time improvement as her first try against winners was at the Grade 2 level and she ran very well
  • #1 No Such Word (7/2) – well beaten by Tidal Pool last out in the G2 Fantasy. Bullet workout on 5/9 at Delaware Park suggests she’s on her toes

 

Race 13 – The Hilltop Stakes ($70k) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
We end the day with a nice turf route. Hopefully by now we’ve all padded the bankrolls and can skip out early to start looking at the Preakness card for Saturday.
  • #5 Joharmony (5/1) – Three straight wins AND Javier Castellano on the turf? Yes please.
  • #6 Smart Seattle (3/1) – Trainer Graham Motion is a class act and deserves a victory on the Friday card
  • #8 Summer Shade (10/1) – Miss looks like she fits with this bunch. Not sure why she’s listed at 10/1?
Best of luck, and may all your wagers be winners!

I’ll be posting our picks for the entire Preakness card as soon as we return from Pimlico Friday evening.

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Pimlico

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