Getting to Know the Preakness Contenders

10 05 2010

It’s time, folks.  Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that  if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on.  With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.

  • Super Saver

As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner.  The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel.  With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite.  All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.

  • Lookin at Lucky

Stop me when this sounds familiar.  A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention.  He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel.  Shades of 2007, anyone?  The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion.  Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing.  Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky.  Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby.  The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished.  He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign.  If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire.  Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.

  • Paddy O’Prado

In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders.  On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs,  he’d be one to watch again.

  • Caracortado

I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)?  It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart.  He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists.  However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby).  He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast.  He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.

  • Pleasant Prince

His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray.  When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite.  A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!

  • Dublin

Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas.  You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy.  Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way.  Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness.  I’m expecting improvement this weekend.

  • Hurricane Ike

I like Ike.  The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner.  Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore.  If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.

  • Yawanna Twist

Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances.  He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though.  Stranger things have happened.

  • Jackson Bend

Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions.  So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th.  If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.

  • First Dude

Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm.  Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass.  Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.

  • Schoolyard Dreams

A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever.  Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride.  The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7.   Would need to improve to threaten.

  • Aikenite

We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible.  A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance?  He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that.  His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward.  I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.

  • Northern Giant

On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star.  On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.

So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?

We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning.  Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, Caracortado

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Odysseus, Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado

Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Kentucky Derby Trail, Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible

Weekend roundup: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby selections

9 04 2010

Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run.  It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.

Thanks to increased media coverage this year, much of that growing has occurred RIGHT before our eyes, with as many as 2 million tuning in to watch last weekend’s Road to the Kentucky Derby broadcast on NBC.  This weekend the action shifts to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass, and Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.

Yes, friends, the Take Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.

Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago.   The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.

Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passing was received with sadness today.  Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday.  While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say):  There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training.  Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)

We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland.  For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.  In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May.  All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #2 First Dude (8/1)
  • #3 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
  • #5 Codoy (30/1)
  • #6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
  • #7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
  • #8 Aikenite (4/1)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)

I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:

You all know how fond I am of ODYSSEUS.  He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race.  It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me.  In fact, it stinks.  If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense?  There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.

The whole thing just feels like a bad idea.  He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track.  Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.

What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic.  I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.

“An odd set, stony quality to it.  As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it.  The way you feel before an ill-considered attack.  Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it.  You must even take part, help it fail!”

Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows?  Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?

Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong.  He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on.  Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.

As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby.  My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.

The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace.  Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.

It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field.  Will it be enough to prevail?  I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.

Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well.  It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts.  With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.

Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward.  Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.

Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO.  Paddy is worth considering for good reason.  All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End.  What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer?  Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.

Selections:

I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity.  What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse.  Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.

I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.

  • #1 Odysseus (7/2)
  • #9 Interactif (4/1)
  • #7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)

Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in!  The $1 million Arkansas Derby!  Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking.  The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #4 Northern Giant (8/1)
  • #5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
  • #6 New Madrid (20/1)
  • #7 Berberis (30/1)
  • #8 Line Of David (15/1)
  • #9 Pulsion (15/1)

SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position.  So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.

All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire.  Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end.  With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.

DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE.  I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.

If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS.  I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.

Selections:

  • #3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
  • #2 Dublin (7/2)
  • #1 Super Saver (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone.  We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings.  May the horse be with you all.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Interactif, Keeneland, Noble's Promise, Oaklawn Park, Odysseus


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