Friesan Fire crushes the Louisiana Derby

14 03 2009

 

Going into Saturday’s prep races, many horseplayers (myself included) would’ve confidently listed Old Fashioned as trainer Larry Jones top colt on the Kentucky Derby trail.  After Friesan Fire’s impressive victory in the $600,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, I’m not so certain that’s the case anymore.

Results Chart

The combination of Friesan Fire’s dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby and Old Fashioned’s stunning defeat in the Rebel, the Derby lists of horseplayers all over the country are going to get quite a shakeup.  Adding to the confusion will be that the highly regarded Rick Dutrow colt Patena and the Ralph Nicks trained Flying Pegasus did not run particularly impressive races in the Louisiana Derby.  They figure to be desperate for graded stakes earnings if they are still being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby this May.  If Patena doesn’t make it in for IEAH Stables, might that put more focus back on a runner like Stardom Bound?  It’s possible. 

Papa Clem, the California shipper who was rumored to have been a bit unhappy after arriving in Louisiana, was the early pace setter.  Friesan Fire tracked early on along with Flying Pegasus and Soul Warrior.  Just after the opening quarter in :24.12, jockey Gabriel Saez moved Friesan Fire into 2nd position behind Papa Clem.  Papa Clem continued to lead through the opening half-mile in :48.75, but Friesan Fire was already gaining ground with every step. 

Saez was patient with Friesan Fire, only firing to the lead once in the stretch.  Suddenly he was opening up an ever widening gap behind himself and the rapidly fading Papa Clem, who was coming back to the rest of the field.  It was never in doubt for a moment once the real running began. 

The winning time for Friesan Fire in the 1 1/16 Mile Louisiana Derby was 1:43.46.  Friesan Fire returned $6.40 to his supporters for the win.

The impressive performance boosts Friesan Fire’s lifetime earnings to over $600,000 with over $500,00 of that total in the form of all important graded stakes earnings.  He’s essentially a lock as of right now for the Kentucky Derby this May.   The win also allowed  the son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) to complete the sweep of the LeComte (Grade 3) and the Risen Star (Grade 3) to go along with the Louisiana Derby.

If America is looking for a new Derby favorite….why not this guy?  He’s becoming the Chris Carter of the 3-year-old division.  All he does is win races.  And he’s improving.  Perhaps it’s high time he’s earned a respected position amongst the Derby contenders. 

Hats off to Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – the most formidable human connection battery in the U.S. when it comes to 3-year-old  stakes races.  I was lucky enough to have each of them in the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge. 

Will we see Friesan Fire again before the Kentucky Derby?  I’m not so sure.  Jones is a patient fellow and may prefer to take his time now that his entry is assured.  I’d expect him to ship well in advance of the Derby to get some works in over the track at Churchill.  He trained extremely well at Fair Grounds prior to his recent victories.  If  he shows signs of taking to the Churchill dirt, he will warrant serious attention in the Derby. 

It’s also worth noting that while Papa Clem was fading late, he did manage to hold on for place, which means that the two recent California shippers that had recent experience against Pioneer of the Nile have run 1, 2 in the Gotham and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, horse racing

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

Old Fashioned the obvious choice for the Rebel

13 03 2009

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

  1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
  2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
  3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
  4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
  5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
  6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
  7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
  8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
  9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Louisiana Derby the key to many questions

13 03 2009

Saturday’s 96th running of the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) at Fair Grounds is arguably the strongest betting race of the 4 major Kentucky Derby prep races of the day (including the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel).  That’s due to the fact that several highly touted horses have entered in what appears to be an extremely competitive race.  When all is said and done we should be able to answer several burning questions, including whether Friesan Fire, Patena, and Flying Pegasus are the real deal(s), and whether Papa Clem can follow in the footsteps of I Want Revenge, who came east from California last week to win the Gotham at Aqueduct. 

Past performances available here

  1. Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 12/1
  2. Soul Warrior (S. Bridgmohan/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  3. Patena (R. Albarado/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  4. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 10/1
  5. Flying Pegasus (J. Velazquez/ R. Nicks) 8/1
  6. Giant Oak (J. Graham/ C. Block) 4/1
  7. Uno Mas (B.J. Hernandez Jr./ S. Asmussen) 12/1
  8. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 8/1
  9. Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ L. Jones) 5/2*
  10. Nowhere to Hide (C. Lanerie/ N. Zito) 15/1

Friesan Fire is your morning line favorite at 5/2.  He’s a guy who doesn’t get a lot of respect, yet quietly sits within most Derby lists in one of the top 5 slots.  Larry Jones is as solid a trainer as there is when it comes to getting 3-year-olds ready for the big time.  When teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez they create a human connection battery that is extremely formidable.  The son of A.P. Indy really turned it up a notch in his most recent workout, a bullet of 5 furlongs in :58 and change on March 9.   He’s exiting back to back wins in Grade 3 races; the LeComte and the Risen Star.  Jones seems to be bringing him along splendidly, and it’s encouraging to note how he took the added 1/16 of a mile in the Risen Star last out.   He’s obviously the one you’ve got to beat.

Patena is a horse that has to live up to his hype.  It’s now or never for this guy.  Quietly, despite the presence of Stardom Bound, this colt has been IEAH Stables prime Kentucky Derby contender in the minds of many.  We’ll see if he’s worth it on Saturday.  An encouraging note for handicappers to play on is that his last victory was over Hooh Why, who went on to run well against Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks.   Yes, that was a filly, but evidently a decent one (especially on synthetics).   He ran well chasing Friesan Fire in the LeComte last out, and that was at a weight disadvantage that he won’t have to face today.  Hopefully we’ll be able to tell a lot about this guy in the post parade.  Dutrow has been training him up for this and if he lives up to the hype he might rocket up the Derby rankings.

Flying Pegasus overcame a wide post in the Risen Star to run well behind Friesan Fire for 2nd.  I get the feeling this son of Fusaichi Pegasus is starting to put it all together and I would not be surprised to see him both improve and threaten for the victory.   Trouble is, he’s running into a deeper field than last time out, so he’ll have to improve.  I could go either way with this guy. 

Papa Clem is the sneaky horse of this field.  If you’re feeling a bit of deja vu, it’s because we’ve seen this story before: a horse who ran big against Pioneer of the Nile comes east, brings their jockey with them, and tries to go synthetic-to-dirt.  Watch out.  This guy made an extremely sharp impression on many in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis and then went on to run huge, finishing ahead of I Want Revenge, who went on to take the Gotham (Grade 3) last weekend.  He’s a Smart Strike colt, much like a certain someone we all know.  At odds of 8/1 he’s an intriguing play, although I’d prefer having a posted workout to give us an indication of how he takes to the surface.  We’ll have to wait for the post parade.  If he makes a similar impression as he did last month, he’s the value play here in the win pool. (NOTE: See Edit Note in Selections section – apparently Papa didn’t ship very well)

Free Country, Uno Mas, and Nowhere to Hide all look usable underneath.  I don’t know why, but I’m just not a Giant Oak guy. Especially not at 4/1.  If his odds trickle up a bit he’s worth including, but he’s just not one of my top choices.  Hopefully the Oak doesn’t make me choke on Saturday. 

I’ll play Papa Clem and Friesan Fire for the win, in a bit of a departure from the norm.  I know that’s a bit odd.  I just don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket.   Weather could also play a role on Saturday, so I’ll spread my chances out by going in two slightly different directions.  I’ll settle on Friesan Fire for the Superfecta play, and  I’ll add in Patena and Flying Pegasus for place, with Uno Mas and Free Country for show.  I guess I’ll add in Giant Oak for 4th.   If Nowhere to Hide runs here instead of the Tampa Bay Derby I might add him in as well. 

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Papa Clem (EDIT:  I’m hearing over on Facebook that Papa Clem did not ship very well and my have a scraped leg. If true it would be wise to downgrade a bit…I may not be placing this wager)
  • $20 Win #9 Friesan Fire
  • $.10 Superfecta: 9/3,5,8/3,5,6,7, 8/1,3,5,6,7,8 ($4.80)

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Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Tampa Bay Derby a test for Hello Broadway

13 03 2009

Hello Broadway, a 3-year-old Broken Vow colt trained by Barclay Tagg, has been installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s 29th running of the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3).  Eleven runners will take aim at the $300,000 purse in the 1 1/16 mile race, including General Quarters, winner of the Sam F. Davis (Grade 3) on February 14.   The field sets up like this:

Past performances available here

  1. Perfect Bull (D. Butler/ B. Rhone) 30/1
  2. Musket Man (D. Centeno/ D. Ryan) 8/1
  3. Nowhere to Hide (A. Garcia/ N. Zito) 5/1
  4. Hello Broadway (E. Coa/ B. Tagg) 3/1*
  5. Warrior’s Reward (C. Montalvo/ I. Wilkes) 12/1
  6. Sumo (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 6/1
  7. Join in the Dance (E. Trujillo/ T. Pletcher) 12/1
  8. General Quarters (T. McCarthy/ J. Lopez) 4/1
  9. Bear’s Rocket (R. Allen Jr./ R. Baker) 8/1
  10. Justontcallmejeri (J. Rios/ D. O’Neill) 12/1
  11. Top Seed (R. Maragh/ M. Trombetta) 20/1

The two horses that will rightly garner the most attention are obviously Hello Broadway and General Quarters, but this field looks evenly matched enough that an upset is not out of the question. 

Hello Broadway will be stretching out after running 2nd to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson (Grade 2) on January 30.   He’s been training well, having fired bullets on 3/10, 2/26, and 2/21.   He also fired a bullet 1/27 just before his effort in the Hutcheson, but that was at 4 furlongs and the more recent bullets were at 5 furlongs.  You get the feeling Tagg has been getting this guy to carry his speed a bit further.  That being said, I don’t think he wants him on the lead like he was in the Hutcheson.  A stalk and pounce trip would seem to be the recipe for success on Saturday.

General Quarters is a heckuva story.  A $20,000 maiden claimer who has risen to Grade 3 winner in the Sam F. Davis, he’s the horse for the course in this field.  He also seemingly relished the added distance of the Sam F. Davis and another effort close to that performance likely puts him in the winner’s circle.  The question is, while he’s obviously improved, is he a bounce candidate?  One could easily see this race setting up as a battle between the top two contenders in the stretch, and it might come down to who gets first jump and who has better position. 

Warrior’s Reward looks like a horse worth considering underneath at very generous odds.  The son of Medaglia d’ Oro has run well in his last two efforts, including a decent performance against the impressive Dunkirk last out at the allowance level over at Gulfstream.  Trainer Ian Wilkes might have himself a live one here.

Musket Man has run well against and even defeated General Quarters in recent memory, and did so over this surface.  He’s been training consistently well all year, so there’s no reason to anticipate a significantly decreased performance. 

Other horses who look worthy of consideration include Bear’s Rocket (possible pace factor), Sumo (who busted out a 96 Beyer breaking from the 10 hole in the Sam F. Davis), and Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito’s sneaky recent maiden grad who has been getting better with each start). 

I’ll play Hello Broadway for the win.  I like Warriors Reward, Musket Man, and General Quarters underneath, with Sumo and Nowhere to Hide  and Bear’s Rocket rounding out the trifecta.  Sadly, there doesn’t appear to be a 10 cent Superfecta available, more’s the pity.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Hello Broadway
  • $1 Trifecta:  4/2,5,8/2,3,5,6,8,9

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

Nicanor can run!

7 03 2009

 

Nicanor, the widely cherished full brother to the legendary Barbaro, returned to racing on Saturday in a $40,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park,  turning in a much improved performance.   Sent off at odds of 8/1, he finished a game second to  3/5  favorite Custom for Carlos and returned $6.00 for place and $4.40 for show.

Trained by Michael Matz, the 3-year-old son of Dynaformer drew national attention from horse racing fans due to his kinship with Barbaro.  However, all the well wishing in the world from a hopeful and adoring public seemed for naught when he encountered trouble at several different moments during his debut on January 31st.  Sent off as the second choice that day, he faded badly to tenth, beaten by 25 lengths.

The world waited with baited breath to see what would transpire in his second effort, and you know what folks?  Give this horse a little time and he might be a pretty good one himself.  Ultimately he was passed by Custom for Carlos, a daunting favorite who had outrun Nicanor by 46 Beyer points in his debut.  Nicanor made him earn it today, and for a moment even appeared to be fighting back in the stretch.   That’s an encouraging sign from a Dynaformer colt.  You want them to be fighters in the stretch. 

He appears capable of  breaking  his maiden in his next effort, provided he receives some smart placement and little bit of racing luck.  We’ll see from there if he’s able to progress through the conditional allowance levels.  Dreams of stakes races may be far off in the future at this point in time, but if all goes well this colt should develop  and continue to move forward. 

There was an ever-so-slight indication that light had turned on for Nicanor by virtue of his March 3rd workout going 4 furlongs in 48 and change.  The drill was significantly faster than his last posted efforts at the distance.  He cut back in distance today from 1 mile to 7 furlongs, and judging from his candor in the stretch I’d say this guy would appreciate the extra furlong again if his connections can find the right race.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Nicanor

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Gotham has many options

6 03 2009

You’ve got to love this time of year.  Here in the Mid Atlantic the weather has turned from an icy snow storm at the dawn of the week to a much needed spring preview with gorgeous 60° temperatures for the weekend.  Once again it’s time to go through the manly ritual of cleaning out the grill and preparing for prime barbecue season.  Ribs, chicken, steak, burgers.  “Meat and fire, baby!”  And nothing goes with a spring barbecue like a meaningful throughoughbred horse race, especially one that could tell us quite a bit about several hopefuls for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  It’s Take Back Saturday time for sure.  Check that….it’s hyper Take Back Saturday!

The field for the 57th running of the $250,000 Gotham (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct (1 1/16 Miles):

Play along with Past Performances from the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge available here

  1. Naos (M. Luzzi/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  2. Russell Road (T. Dunkelberger/J. Casey) 20/1
  3. Masala (E. Coa/T. PLetcher) 5/1
  4. Axel Foley (R. Migliore/K. McLaughlin) 15/1
  5. Mr. Fantasy (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 7/2
  6. Haynesfield (C. Lopez/S. Asmussen) 5/1
  7. Imperial Council (R. Maragh/C. McGaughey) 5/2*
  8. I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 3/1
  9. Giant Ryan (J. Sanchez/B. Parboo) 50/1

Right away there is a major dilemma for me.  I fully expected Haynesfield to be the chalk favorite here, but apparently the hype surrounding Shug McGaughey’s colt Imperial Council has  reached deeper than I thought.  To be fully honest, I was planning on trying to beat Haynesfield with him.  Now I may have to look elsewhere if the odds hold.  Before we get into that though, let’s run through the horses a bit more thoroughly.

Naos breaks from the inside for trainer Todd Pletcher, who suddenly has a bevy of Derby contenders after appearing to start the year on a down note.  ‘Patient, grasshopper!”  He looks a bit outclassed here though to me.  That being said, take a look at the developmental cycle of the other Lion Heart colt in this race, Masala, and suddenly it’s not difficult to imagine a move forward on the speed figure scales on Saturday.  Trouble is, he’ll have to run by some pretty good horses in the stretch, which might be asking a bit much.  He seems to enjoy the added ground if his last effort at Philly Park is any indication.   Also have to like that he’s at least had some stakes experience.  I could see this horse having brighter days ahead of him.  I’m just not sold yet that Saturday will be one of them.   I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he hit the board though.

Russell Road warrants some mention in this field.  While he seems a class below the rest, there’s not much you can say against a horse who has won 6 consecutive races.  It’s just that those were sprinting further south in West Virginia and Maryland and this is a tough field to face stretching out over a mile for the first time in his career.  He has seemed to run his best races when going the tricky 7 furlong distance.   Still, it looks like he’d need to run the race of his life to win this.  He’s another you’ve got to respect with a chance to hit the board.

Masala.  This guy sure looks live on paper.  Finished second to Take the Points last out and we saw what that one did shipping west on short notice and running second to the Pamplemousse in the Sham.   Todd Pletcher would appear to have another dangerous horse here. .  His speed figures are exciting and if this guy makes a nice appearance it might be worth considering him here.  It seems both of Pletcher’s ‘Lion Hearts’ are looking to take steps forward. The only trouble is….if we’re going to base his chances on the Take the Points angle, then it must be said that The Pamplemousse sort of beat that one for fun in the Sham.  I could go either way with this one.  He’s got a chance here.

Axel Foley.  The Officer colt has been chasing some of the better left coast horses lately in Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile.  He looks up against it here to me.  Shug knows how to get ‘em turned around though so an improved effort is certainly possible.

Mr. Fantasy is the first of the “big guns” here in post position order.  A win here will rocket the Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt onto many Derby lists.  He’s won big in each of his two starts and has devoured competition at the state-bred maiden and allowance levels.  He’s moving up in class, but could be the controlling speed.  If he’s the colt he’s looked like against lower levels of competition,  than this one could be over before it starts.  The whole question will be what happens with him up front early on.   My guess is this guy can handle the class test and will run well here.

Haynesfield is the talented Speightstown colt who seemingly gets no respect a la Rodney Dangerfield.  He’s at 5/1?  All he’s done is win 4 straight races including the Damon Runyon, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway.  What’s a guy gotta do?  The two knocks that have followed this guy wherever he has gone are that he should run into some distance limitations being a Speightstown colt and that he hasn’t really beaten anybody of name or record.  This is obviously his biggest test, so we stand to learn quite a bit about him.  I suspect he’ll take a bit of money at the windows as well, but with the jockey switch from Ramon Dominguez to Lopez, I think there’s reason to take a stand against him this weekend. 

Imperial Council.  Are you kidding me?  Watch how much buzz will surround this horse if he wins the Gotham.  He’s essentially improved in each of his 3 lifetime races and should absolutely love stretching out the added distance of the Gotham.  I like his foundation, and you’ve get a feeling that he could be the best of the Empire Maker contenders for the Derby.  He’s going to have to earn it though, and that will mean running down both Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy.  I’ll be honest and repeat that he is my top selection here overall, but if the odds aren’t right there are reasons to consider taking a stand against him.  His workouts would suggest he’s ready to run a big one and this colt could well be in top form right now.  Eye him up in the post parade and decide how you feel about the odds.  And yes, Mike from NY, you know I can’t cover an Empire Maker without thinking of you, buddy. 

I Want Revenge is the x-factor horse here.  He ships in on short notice from California with hotshot jockey Joe Talamo aboard.  This is almost the exact reverse of what we saw with Take the Points heading west in the Sham last week, and the result might turn out to be the same.  I absolutely loved how this horse chased Pioneer of the Nile the last two races.  Visually they were impressive performance despite the lower speed figures.  Jeff Mullins wouldn’t ship him all the way out here if he didn’t think he had a big chance.  I’m just not sure I like him at 3/1.   I actually expected the odds on he and Haynesfield to be reversed and this will be interesting to see where horseplayers wind up.   As I often say, I definitely like the synthetic to dirt angle more than the other way around, and I prefer the west to east angle more so than vice versa.  I think he hits the board and must be given a chance here.  Here’s the intriguing thing with him.  If he does run big, and if he were to win here, how might folks feel differently about the odds of The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, and perhaps Stardom Bound come the first Saturday in May? 

Giant Ryan….are you kidding me?  Pass.

I’m going to go down to the wire here on my choices, and odds will likely influence the final wagers.  I think Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council are the top two in this field, but Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, and Masala could all pull it off as well.  It really just comes down to who you like the most.  Mr. Fantasy could well wind up being the play, but for now I’ll stick to my guns and select Imperial Council for the win. 

From a superfecta standpoint I think you can use Mr. Fantasy, Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Masala, Russell Road, and Naos as underneath possibilities.   Without the benefit of the post parade I’d play Masala, Haynesfield, and Mr. Fantasy in place.  I’d toss in I Want Revenge, Rusell Road, and Naos for the bottom spots of the ticket. 

$.10 Superfecta:  7/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all.  If you’re crusing around the web this weekend, do stop over on our TBA homepage and pay a visit.  We always appreciate the traffic.


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