Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09
Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature. This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park. Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes. Along those lines, Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out. So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!”
The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card. That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6. Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance. The more the merrier! Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us.
Enough about that for now though. Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.
Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET
1 3/16 Miles – Turf
- #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
- #1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
- #3 Gray Suitor (4/1)
We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs. This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds. Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper. The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today. Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level. Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field. This one looked pretty obvious to me on top.
Delaware Park – Race 7 - The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET
1 1/8 Miles
- #7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
- #3 All Night Labor (10/1)
- #8 Skylighter (3/1)
Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here. She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before. If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price.
All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good. Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races.
Skylighter is very interesting from the outside. I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means. Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount. You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he?
Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET
5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf
- #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
- #13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
- #11 Excessive Heat (15/1)
Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection. I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events. That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race. Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well.
Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision. The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers.
Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl ($125k)- 4:51 ET
1 1/16 Miles
- #3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
- #5 Cat Moves (8/1)
- #1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)
Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl. I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races. In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.
Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle. The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance.
Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.
Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET
1 1/4 Miles - Turf
- #6 Dynaforce (3/1)
- #3 Criticism (5/2*)
- #4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)
We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York. No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week. The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?
First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much. Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more. Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year. She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch.
Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well. If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of the softer footing underneath her hooves.
Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today. I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?
Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET
1 1/8 Miles – Turf
- #6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
- #7 Indescribable (7/2)
- #4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)
Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend. That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie. This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort. She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here. In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price. As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith.
Indescribable is another interesting runner here. Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good. Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way.
I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”
Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET
1 3/16 Miles – Turf
- #3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
- #8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
- #10 Lime Rickey (7/2)
The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners. Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here. Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today. My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April? My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft? Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness).
Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use. I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names. Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army. William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.” As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance.
Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. I suspect he’ll run big here as well.
Hollywood Park – Race 9 – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET
1 1/16 Miles
- #2 Grazen (2/1*)
- #3 Cape Truth (7/2)
- #1 Misremembered (4/1)
We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles over the main cushion track. I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3. The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground. Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score.
Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out. He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill.
Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert. This is a small, yet competitive field.
Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.
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