Papa Clem out dueled Old Fashioned in a stretch battle for the ages on Saturday in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. At times it appeared that Old Fashioned was fighting back and might find a way to get back in front for the win, but Papa Clem was not to be denied. The win makes Papa Clem a fast rising contender for the 2009 Kentucky Derby 3 Saturdays from now at Churchill Downs.
The son of Smart Strike (who also sired Curlin) finished the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby in 1:49.01 and will now ship to Churchill Downs in preparation for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Ever since making a rather dashing appearance in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in early February, the colt has been flying just below the radar compared to some of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the nation. If Old Fashioned was a consensus top 10 contender for the Kentucky Derby, than clearly Papa Clem, and his new found ability to relax, rate, and pounce are worthy of that same status now.
Old Fashioned was out in front early, setting quick opening fractions of :22.65 and :44.19. Ziegfeld chased the early pace in 2nd before being suddenly pulled up after the opening 3/4 of a mile. Papa Clem was surprisingly held back in 5th position during the early running, patiently waiting for the right opportunity to make his move. The decision to rate Papa Clem worked brilliantly as he struck the front as the field turned for home, setting off a stretch run that will go down as one of the more thrilling in Arkansas Derby history.
Longshot Summer Bird, who made a magnificent post parade appearance as a striking chestnut, ran well late to finish in third at odds of 26/1. My beloved Win Willy, despite getting solid early fractions to run at, was never able to materialize a real threat, but did manage to finish 4th, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. It remains to be seen if they’ll still send him to the Derby. Technically he’s got more earnings than Dunkirk and though he’s easy to miss in the replay video, his running line does denote he made a mild rally. He certainly didn’t disgrace himself, although I was expecting better when I saw the early splits.
I’ll be diligently working on updated power rankings for the Kentucky Derby, and needless to say Papa Clem will be a fast riser when they are released tomorrow. Old Fashioned is likely still bound for the Kentucky Derby as well, and if they could ever get this horse to slow it down a bit, he might be a force to be reckoned with. His two defeats have not been by much. He sort of reminds me of Hard Spun back in 2007. I thought the both of them looked like tremendously gutsy competitors in the stretch and think the Derby would only be strengthened by the entry of each runner on the first Saturday in May.
With the Arkansas Derby in the books, the major Derby preps are now over. We’ve still got three weeks to ponder and question and will now begin paying close attention to the posted morning workouts for the contenders.
Hats off to trainer Gary Sttute and jockey Rafael Bejarano for a magnificent job with Papa Clem this Saturday. That stretch duel was exactly what we needed on a nationally televised broadcast. Hopefully some folks stumbled upon our sport and liked what they saw. I know I did from where I sat…then jumped…then screamed – in my living room. Thanks to Papa Clem and Old Fashioned for doing their part to help Take Back Saturday. Now let’s begin to look forward to what appears to be a very contentious 2009 Kentucky Derby.
When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT. The field sets up like this:
The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset. The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower. Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned. After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend. He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson. The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done. While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn.
Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat. The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower. I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile. Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.
Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on. I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year. As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased. I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper. I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose.
An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow. We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roseschallenge. He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking. He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one.
I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy. Looking over the past performances here the night before the race, I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick. I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place. Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.
Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby? All the way at the top, if you ask me. His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May.
Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby
Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners. Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis. Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question.
So what are we to make of Quality Road? How does he match up with the other big guns? At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production. It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds. For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders. They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style. Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.
Let’s start by looking at the top 5:
#1 Quality Road
#2 Friesan Fire
#3 The Pamplemousse
#4 Pioneer of the Nile
#5 I Want Revenge
I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5. The argument seems to be where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another. Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road. Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders. Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories. Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak. Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem. Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call. The end result? I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two. Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.
Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge. Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint. However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time. With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile. Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him. With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.” Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road. Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above. Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up. I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion.
#6 Old Fashioned
#7 Imperial Council
#8 Dunkirk
#9 Chocolate Candy
#10 Win Willy
Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5. The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned. Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot. Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though. Then what would we make of him? Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns? We must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career. There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around. Ditto for Old Fashioned. Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far. I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.
Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots. Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings. He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least. I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile).
Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list. Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect. In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him.. All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby. He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail? I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did? The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently.
Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him. I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy. The Pamplemousse is a speedy type. Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running. We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this. It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.
So there you have it, for the moment at least. In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials: “Who’s on your list? “
“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?”
Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above. While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″ lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon. If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds, and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright. While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.
So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.
(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1, she’d be darn close. Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank. My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).
#1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby. Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly. Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.
#2 The Pamplemousse – Folks seem to either LOVE this guy or have serious questions about him. I started off in the latter camp and have been dragged kicking and screaming into the former. He’s as visually impressive a colt as I’ve seen this year. Only trouble is, if he wins the Derby, make sure you aren’t out driving while trainer Julio Canani is still in a celebratory mood.
#3 Pioneer of the Nile - I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me! “Look what they done to my Santino! Look what they done to my boy!!! “ He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks. It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.
#4 Dunkirk - It’s almost inexplicable. A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm! Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness. My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories. I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular. People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes. It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were. He’s hyper-lightly raced. We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend. A loss will send him plummeting. A win might make him the Derby favorite.
#5 I Want Revenge - it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham. He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend. Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle?
#6 Quality Road - he’s often my forgotten horse. My head-scratcher. Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition. He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth. He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.
#7 Old Fashioned - Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here. Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.
#8 Win Willy - I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy. Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing: “…then I saw his face. Now I’m a believer!” Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails: “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!” It is interesting to keep in mind that someone (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well.
#9 Imperial Council - Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood? If he does take the Wood, he’ll be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group. If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one.
#10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April. He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet. It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff.
Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.
Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors. Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks. Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win. Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses. You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer. After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned. It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems.
Then there’s Dunkirk. He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings. It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week. If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk. Although he does need a clean trip.
How about Old Fashioned? Remember that guy? Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list. He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon. Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned. He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher.
So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned? Oh yeah, Win Willy! Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders. I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.
That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby. And guess what, we can still go deeper. Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road. He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop. It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge.
And the list goes on and on. I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being. Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders. Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo, and Papa Clem and you get the picture.
So how deep is this year’s field? it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep! That’s how deep we’re talking about here.
Every so often the game of thoroughbred horse racing reminds you that there is a reason they run the races and don’t simply award purse money based on who looks the most formidable on paper. This Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the near consensus top selection at the moment for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, was upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the (G2) Rebel.
So what happened? Well, in my opinion he simply got too close to a hot early pace. After starting the race out in front, Ramon Dominguez allowed John Court and Silver City to set the early pace, and that they did ripping off splits of :22.54 and :46.07.
Midway through the turn, Old Fashioned took the lead after an opening 3/4 of a mile in 1:11.67. Entering the stretch it looked like it might be smooth sailing for the Larry Jones trained colt, as he had opened up a 2 length advantage over Silver City.
However, what you can see by looking closely towards the rear of the pack in the replay above (pay special attention at the 1:19 – 1:22 mark) is that Win Willy was absolutely blowing past rivals on his last-to-first move. At the top of the stretch Win Willy was hung a bit wide but continued to explode down the center of the track.
Suddenly it became clear that Old Fashioned was in hot water. In a race that reminded me very much of the thrilling finish to the 2007 Preakness, Old Fashioned tried desperately to hold on begging for the wire, but ultimately came up short as Win Willy surged past him for the upset of the day. A valiant effort indeed on the part of Old Fashioned, but he is now undefeated no more.
Win Willy crossed the wire in 1:44.41 and returned $115.60 for the win. So much for obvious selections, huh?
A closer look at Win Willy reveals that perhaps we should not have allowed him to get away at such generous odds. The colt is clearly improving (well, clearly with the benefit of hindsight, that is), and was sired by Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos. Now that he’s shown he can close into a swift pace going a route of ground, there’s reason to suspect today’s performance was not a fluke.
So now what becomes of the ubiquitous Derby lists that abound on the blogosphere? Well, I’ll take first crack at a revamped top 10 in light of all the happenings this weekend.
Friesan Fire – welcome to the top of the mountain to Larry Jones “other” colt.
The Pamplemousse – seems to be the A-horse of the California circuit
Dunkirk - now becomes the horse who must live up to the hype
Old Fashioned – can’t drop him too far off that performance in the Rebel
Pioneer of the Nile – showdown looming with The Pamplemousse in April.
I Want Revenge – dominating 8 length win in the Gotham has his stock rising
Chocolate Candy – interested to see where this runner winds up next.
Quality Road - FOY winner will need to continue to step forward
Musket Man - won a thriller in the TB Derby
Win Willy – knock off the #1 seed and you earn yourself a seat at the table.
If you’re playing along in the Road to the Roses challenge, you’ll be able to add up to 3 additional runners to your stable this week starting on Monday. Dunkirk, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge will likely be my additions.
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