THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Well, it’s Friday night!!!   Rather than compile a pick 4 ticket tonight, I thought I’d just review each race and give my thoughts on the logical selections.  Friday night’s are always pretty crazy at Hollywood Park, and seem to be the most difficult days to handicap.  This card was no different from the norm, offering other aspiring handicappers many possible directions.  Let’s get this started and see if we can’t turn this into a profitable start to the weekend! 

 Race 1:

Looking at the first race on the card, I think there is a reasonable chance for #3 Eden Simone to wire the field in the opener.  Clearly she’s the best synthetic surface specialist of the race, and the combination of jockey V. Espinoza and trainer Frank Monteleone is very hard to ignore.  She warrants top choice selection rather easily.  #2 O Bee Naki is the logical contender, and was very competitive with Eden Simone 2 races back.   I’ll be shocked if any of the others get to the wire first, but like I said this is Friday night at Hollywood so anything is possible.

Race 2:

Race two is a 25000 maiden claimer.  I like #8 Topper’s Dream as my top choice, as I like the way he fought on for 2nd last time out.  #2 Oh I Tripped looms as an upset specialist.  You’ve obviously got to toss that last race with the 0 Beyer speed figure if you’re a supporter.  Hopefully the inside post position will help to a better start.  Note that he was very competitive in his first race 2 back, so I think there’s a logical chance for improvement here.  #1 Runaway Wondercat also looks interesting to me.  I’m guessing that #3 Ringmaster will take some play at the windows, but I have a difficult time taking maidens that are 0 for 11.  If Runaway Wondercat can carry his speed from the last out a bit further, he can compete with these.   I really like his workout lines, with a nice combination of working from the starting gate and getting some stamina going 6 furlongs on 3 occasions. 

 Race 3:

This is the type of race that handicappers typically have problems with, as you can make a case for just about the entire field.  I took a stand on #4 Beltline Jack as my top choice here.  He overcame a tough start last time out and has plenty of excuses to run better here.  #5 Denied ended up my second choice, although my gut tells me he’s more of a bottom filler on the trifectas and exactas.   Rounding out the selections is #7 Polo Bender, who could be the spoiler here.   I’m guessing most folks will use #2 Primerica, but I’m of the opinion that he’s too far past his prime to win.  I’ll go with Polo Bender as 3rd choice as it looks like he’s capable of competing if he fires his best effort.

 Race 4:

#6 Witchy Meeting looks like the one to beat here.  Note the strength of her last race, with 2 comeback winners, and the third place horse, D. Pirates Marker, winning as a check-mark selection for me yesterday.   The workout line looks sharps so if this one is ready to run the others will be running for 2nd.   #4 Belleacton has room for improvement and it’s mighty encouraging to see Gomez get the mount.  #1 Princess Amelie, a first timer for Ron Ellis, gets the third choice selection. I’m anxious to see her in the post parade to see if she’s worth using.   It looks like they’ve given her a good combination of speed and stamina in the workout tabs, so my guess is she’ll be ready to go. 

Edit:  #1 Princess Amelie is now a late scratch for today’s card.  Consider using #8 Jane Doe in her place.

My Early Pick 4:

• Race 1: 3
• Race 2: 1, 2, 8
• Race 3: 4, 5, 7
• Race 4: 4, 6, 8

Total Cost:  $27

 Race 5:

This race appears to set up nicely for #5 Karlee’s Kitten.  She’s dropping in from the strongest race on the card, but don’t expect to get a price on her.   #6 Formal Rush looks very intriguing to me, having finished behind Karlee’s Kitten by 1 1/2 lengths two back.   I’ll round out the choices with #2 Categorize, although I do think she’ll have some contention for the lead here and would need a great trip to get it done.   Buyer beware on Categorize, as she’s 0 for 5 as a favorite….still, she won’t be the favorite today, so perhaps that’s a good omen?

Race 6:

#4 Intangaroo will be the one to beat here, and once again there won’t be much of a price on her.   I like #7 Tiger on the Loose as a potential upset maker, although she’ll need to bring her A game to get by these.  Take your choice between #3 Kalamata and #6 Igraine for 3rd selection, as they rate about even.  Igraine cuts back in distance (one of my favorite angles), but Kalamata is the more accomplished sprinter.   Also note that Igraine has only one start, and a not so strong one at that, over the synthetic surface.  For that reason I’ll side with #3 Kalamata as the 3rd choice.

Race 7:

Perhaps the most difficult race on the entire card to handicap.   Most of the other handicappers I looked at are going with #1 Ocean Grand, but I’m siding with #8 Quasimodo here.  G. Gomez was intrigued enough to pick up the mount and that’s enough to seal the deal for me (though not the only reason, of course).  Another horse that I think has a shot here is #2 We All Love Aleyna.   If you toss that last race, everything else is competitive with this field.  #1 Ocean Grand does end up as my 3rd betting choice here.  I have a hunch that if he had faced lesser horses last time out, he would’ve hung on to wire the field.  Minister Blair is no slouch, nor is Seeking Answers, the two that passed him at the end.  One thing is for sure, he’ll be gunning for the lead from the start.  There’s a couple other in here that I think are worth using (nearly the entire field, to be honest), so if you can afford to do so in the multi-race exotics, make sure you give yourself deep coverage here. 

 Race 8:

The horse I’m waiting to see in the post parade here is #2 Randy Monarch.  Those close to me will think this is a “hunch play” based on name alone, but he does rate my top choice.  I really like the workout line on this one.  #3 Exactly seems like he could step forward today, as he’s been close in the past and is dropping from 3200 to 2500.  I thought that for a 3rd choice you had to play one of the other 1st time starters, and I settled on #6 R in Excess, since his last out wasn’t horrible and he looks like he could easily improve with a better start.  Also note the strong workouts in the bag. 

 My late Pick 4 would be something like this:

Late Pick 4

• Race 5:  5, 6
• Race 6:  3, 4, 7
• Race 7:  1, 2, 8
• Race 8:  2, 3

Total Cost:  $36

Well there it is – good luck and enjoy the racing from Hollywood Park!