THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Had a rather exciting Thursday morning today at Pimlico.  I got to meet Tex Dulay and Cindy Pierson Dulay from horse-races.net.  Great folks - they made me feel right at home even though I was totally overwhelmed at the spectacle before my eyes.  It’s not often as a common horse racing fan that you get to sit in a room with so many distinguished names in the sport.  I probably looked like a deer in headlights.  Thankfully Tex was kind enough to make sure I knew who was who and what was going on.  That guy’s a bundle of energy - I can see why they are great photographers.  If I spot them on Friday and Saturday I’ll be something of a cheering section for them while they ply their magic.

I also got to meet Amanda from turfangels, who was wonderful to talk horses with. I’m ashamed to admit that I don’t recall having checked out her blog before, but now that I have I’m very impressed.  Let’s just say it’s an instant blogroll addition.  I’m especially fond of the mission statement:  “…dedicated to furthering the education of young racing fans. “ 

That statement got me thinking for a moment.  That really is what I started blogging for as well.  Just trying to reach as many folks as possible and share the love of the game.  I’ve got some more ideas on this now, having been inspired a bit by Amanda’s blog.  My friends at the Thoroughbred Blogger’s Alliance who have seen my latest email will know at least one of my half-crazed ideas for nurturing more fans of our sport.  I’ll have more on that in post sometime later.

So what were the highlights of the morning?  Well, I drank several free Black Eyed Susan’s - which means I also now possess a pair of the famed Preakness glasses the drinks come in.  It’s so awesome to see Curlin listed amongst the winners.   Ah, the memories!!! Last year’s Preakness…my god.  Oh to live life at it’s fullest and feel that rush once more!

The program for the breakfast featured a very passionate article about the “Street Fight in the Preakness” between Curlin and Street Sense last year.  Obviously I’ll treasure that forever. 

Chris Lincoln hosted the Alibi breakfast, which is a tradition dating back to the 40’s at Pimlico, and was very entertaining.  I’m told that’s usually the case.  He gives out a rather funny “rat bastard” award to trainers who aren’t there to give a rundown on their horse’s chances.  All of this in front of an Archbishop and the Little Sisters of the Poor, no less.  It’s all in good sport and very tastefully done. 

I really didn’t get a chance to snap any photos of note.  Don’t worry though - with Tex and Cindy on the scene, there are workout photos-a-plenty on their site:

http://www.horse-races.net/library/preak08-thursday.htm

I don’t know about you guys, but two horses stick out to me in those pics.  Big Brown obviously looks the part.  He looked that way going to post in Churchill and doesn’t appear to be any worse for the wear.  The other that really sticks out to me is Kentucky Bear.  Hey Byrn, Macho Again, and Gayego also look pretty good to me. 

A field of 13 runners will compete on Saturday in the 133rd Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.  The field is headlined by the Kentucky Derby winner and 3-year-old phenom Big Brown.  Only one of his competitors in the Kentucky Derby, Gayego, has returned to face him, and that colt will be breaking from the outside.  11 other contenders have drawn in and are set to give battle to the colt many think may walk away with a Triple Crown.  

Post time is 6:15 PM on Saturday, with national coverage available on NBC.  The second jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes) is a 1 3/16 mile race over the main dirt track at Pimlico.  $1 million in total purse money is up for grabs.  The track record for the Preakness is 1:53.40, set by Tank’s Prospect in 1985 and then matched by Louis Quatorze in 1996 and Curlin in 2007.  Many will also tell you that the great Secretariat either matched or broke that record, and controversy around the official time of Secretariat’s trip abounds even to this day.  The largest victory margin in the Preakness was an amazing 11 1/2 lengths by Smarty Jones.

The Field:

 #1 Macho Again

• Odds: 20-1
• Owner: Westpoint Thoroughbreds
• Trainer: Dallas Stewart
• Jockey: Julien Leparaux
• Sire: Macho Uno (Holy Bull)
• Dam: Go Donna Go (Wild Again)
• Notes:  Winner of the Derby Trial Stakes on 4/26/08 at Churchill Downs.  Also boasts an impressive Allowance level win from earlier in February. Has never faced the likes of Big Brown and will need to bring his best on Saturday to factor into the money.  Macho Again was originally pointing towards the Ohio Derby until a recent decision was made to instead run in the Preakness.  The colt worked 4 furlongs in 50.80 on 5/10/08 at Churchill.
• • Macho Again breezes at Churchill on 5/10/08

 #2 Tres Borrachos

• Odds: 30-1
• Owner: Beau Greely, John Greely IV, Phil Houchens
• Trainer: Beau Greely
• Jockey: Tyler Baze
• Sire: Ecton Park (Forty Niner)
• Dam: Pete’s Fancy (Peteski)
• Notes: Ran 3rd to Gayego and Z Fortune in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby.  Has some speed and could be a part of the Preakness pace. Led the way for a while in the Arkansas Derby before finally fading to Gayego and Z Fortune, but held on for show honors.

 #3 Icabad Crane

• Odds:30-1
• Owner: Earle Mack
• Trainer: Graham Motion
• Jockey: Jeremy Rose
• Sire: Jump Start (A.P. Indy)
• Dam:Adorahy (Rahy)
• Notes: Winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, which makes him the “horse for the course” out of the field.  He stalked pace setter Mint Lane that day to triumph.  I got to see him live that day and he looked pretty impressive to me.  Of course, like many in this field, he’ll find the competition a bit steeper with the presence of Big Brown.  Also has a 3rd place finish in the Rushaway Stakes.  The colt worked 5 furlongs in 1:09.60 at Fair Hill on 5/9/08
• • Icabad Crane blows past Mint Lane to win the Federico Tesio Stakes

  #4 Yankee Bravo

• Odds: 15-1
• Owner: Richard Duggan, Bienstock and Winner Stables, and Harlequin Ranches
• Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
• Jockey: Alex Solis
• Sire: Yankee Gentleman (Storm Cat)
• Dam:Vickey Jane  (Royal Academy)
• Notes: Has a win in the California Derby on his resume, as well as a third place finish in the Louisiana Derby behind Pyro.  Ran a disappointing 4th in the Santa Anita Derby most recently.  Colt worked 7 furlongs in 1:24.20 at Hollywood Park on 5/8/08.
• • Yankee Bravo finishes 3rd behind Pyro and My Pal Charlie in the Louisiana Derby 3/8/08.

 #5 Behindatthebar

• Odds: 10-1
• Owner: Padua Stable, Michael Shustek, and W. Don Stanley
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: David Flores
• Sire: Forest Wildcat (Storm Cat)
• Dam: Rhiana (Runaway Groom)
• Notes:  Winner of the Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes.  The colt breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.13 on 5/11/08 at Belmont Park.  Behindatthebar is Todd Pletcher’s only Preakness runner for 2008.
• • Behindatthebar runs away with the Coolmore Lexington Stakes

#6 Racecar Rhapsody

• Odds: 30-1
• Owner: Jerry Carroll, Stan Kaplan, Ronald Plattner, and Mark Guilfoyle
• Trainer: Ken McPeek
• Jockey: Robby Albarado
• Sire: Tale of the Cat
• Dam: Reflect the Music (A.P. Indy)
• Notes: Longshot closer is piloted by last year’s Preakness winner in Albarado.  His name suggests he’s faster than he has appeared thus far in 6 lifetime starts. Still, apart from Big Brown, he seems to belong with the rest of the field.  The colt worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.00 at Churchill on 5/8/08.

 #7 Big Brown

• Odds: 1/2*
• Owner: IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr.
• Trainer:Rick Dutrow
• Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
• Sire:Boundary (Danzig)
• Dam: Mien (Nureyev)
• Notes:  3-year-old phenom and winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby is sure to go to post as the overwhelming favorite.  He’s a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime and will have the legendary Triple Crown of horse racing within his sights if he can run to expectations in the Preakness.  Blew away a field of 20 to win the Derby in stunning fashion.  Does not appear to have an equal in his division at the moment.
• • Big Brown’s dominating performance in the 2008 Kentucky Derby

 #8 Kentucky Bear

• Odds: 15-1
• Owner: Bear Stables
• Trainer: Reade Baker
• Jockey:Jamie Theriot
• Sire: Mr. Greeley (Gone West)
• Dam:Tate (Afleet)
• Notes: Has had Pimlico all to himself in recent days, being the first contender to arrive on the scene.  The third place finisher in the Toyota Bluegrass has flashed some potential in his 3 lifetime starts and has much room for improvement.  Will he be a part of the pace or will he stalk the leaders into the stretch?  It seems impossible to tell right now.  Has the looks of one of the better longshots in the field and could be a surprise in the exotics.
• • Kentucky Bear finishes 3rd behind Monba in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland

 #9 Stevil

• Odds: 30-1
• Owner: Robert LaPenta
• Trainer:Nick Zito
• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Sire: Maria’s Mon (Wavering Monarch)
• Dam: Company Storm (Storm Creek)
• Notes: Sire was a 2 year old champion that had to be put down on the track following an injury. Colt is a half to Wait a While and Monarchos.  The Zito/Lapenta connection originally desired to have War Pass in this position, but that colt’s injuries have made Stevil their best shot for the Preakness.  Looms as a longshot that will have to bring his best race to factor into the final.

 #10 Riley Tucker

• Odds: 30-1
• Owner:Zayat Stables
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Jockey: Edgar Prado
• Sire: Harlan’s Holiday (Harlan)
• Dam: My Sweet Country (Bold Ruckus)
• Notes: Another of the longshots in the field who has finished in the money in a couple of tries as a 3 -year-old, including the Arlington Washington Futurity and the Saratoga Special.  Was a surprise late entry to the field after it was decided El Gato Malo would not enter the Preakness.  Worked 5 furlongs in 1:06.09 on 5/12/08 at Belmont Park.

 #11 Giant Moon

• Odds: 30-1
• Owner: Albert Fried Jr.
• Trainer: Richard Schosberg
• Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
• Sire: Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat)
• Dam: Moonlightandbeauty (Capote)
• Notes:Colt began his campaign impressively in NY by winning his first 4 starts.  Since then he has slipped a bit with a disappointing finish in the Gotham Stakes and a 4th place finish in the Wood Memorial. He worked 4 furlongs in :47.77 at Belmont Park on 5/13/08 - good enough to qualify as a bullet.
• • Giant Moon wins the 2008 Count Fleet Stakes-his last of 4 consecutive victories to begin his career

 #12 Gayego

• Odds: 8-1
• Owner: Cubanacan Stables
• Trainer: Paulo Lobo
• Jockey:Mike Smith
• Sire: Gilded Time (Timeless Moment)
• Dam: Devil’s Lake (Lost Code)
• Notes:Colt that I’ve had a bit of a fascination with throughout the year. He won the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita on 1/20/08. Proved he could handle the dirt with his victory in the Arkansas Derby.  I liked him heading into the Derby, where he had a god-awful trip.  If the horse I thought he was in the Derby shows up on Preakness Day, he should be the most logical challenger for Big Brown.  Of course, he’s got the outside post position to contend with as well, which may be a hindrance as it was in the Derby.
• • Gayego takes the Arkansas Derby over Z Fortune at Oaklawn Park on 4/12/08

 #13 Hey Byrn

• Odds: 20-1
• Owner: Beatrice Oxenberg
• Trainer: Edward Plesa Jr.
• Jockey: Charles Lopez
• Sire: Put it Back (Honour and Glory)
• Dam: Restraining Order (Miss Shoplifter)
• Notes:An impressive allowance winner at Calder earlier in his career, where he defeated horses such as Alaazo, he faced off against Big Brown in the Florida Derby and didn’t appear to be a match for the super-colt.  Hey Byrn returned to win the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on 4/12/08.  Has the makings of a frisky competitor if he can run his best race on Saturday.  Ever since Ron Correll first talked about this colt, I’ve felt that he was underrated.  We’ll see if he belongs with the upper crust of the 3-year-old division on Saturday.
• • Hey Byrn wins the Holy Bull after stalking Famous Patriot through modest fractions

It’s back!  The race made famous in the film Seabiscuit that has it’s roots firmly entrenched in the proud history of Maryland thoroughbred racing has finally returned.  After a brief but painful absence, the Grade 1 Pimlico Special returns to Baltimore on Friday with a star-studded field.  Several big-name entries have been attracted, including Grasshopper, Student Council, Xchanger, and A.P. Arrow.  All eight runners are winners of graded stakes. Let’s take a look at the field for the 1 3/16 mile race:

1. Ryan’s for Real  (Eric Rodriguez)  10/1
2. Gotcha Gold (C.C. Lopez)  9/2
3. Student Council (Shaun Bridgmohan) 6/1
4. A.P. Arrow (Ramon Dominguez) 5/2
5. Xchanger (Garrett Gomez) 20/1
6. Wanderin Boy (Kent Desormeaux) 8/1
7. Grasshopper (Robby Albarado) 3/1
8. Sir Whimsey (Edgar Prado) 10/1
9. Temporary Saint (John Velazquez) 10/1

Doubtless the two most well known names here will be Grasshopper and A.P. Arrow.  We last saw A.P. Arrow chasing Curlin in the Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba racecourse.  The son of A.P. Indy finished 4th that day to the reigning Horse of the Year.  A.P. Arrow made a name for himself in 2007 by winning both the Grade 2 Clark Handicap and the Grade 3 Skip Away Handicap. 

A.P. Arrow wins the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs 11/23/07

Grasshopper made me take notice last year as he chased Street Sense in the Travers.  Since then he’s taken the Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap.  At one point in time I had this guy ranked right behind Heatseeker and Curlin as one of the top older dirt horses.  That appears to have been a bit too aggressive, but still serves as an indication of how highly I think of him.  He’s caught a bit of bad luck lately with back-to-back 2nd place finishes in the New Orleans Handicap and the Westchester Handicap.

It takes Street Sense everything he has to get past Grasshopper in the Travers last August

Xchanger you may remember as the pace-setter for last year’s Preakness.  Many forget that it was Xchanger who set the early fractions before Hard Spun went up to challenge for the lead.  While Xchanger faded quickly last year in the Preakness, it is worth noting that he’s the only horse of the field with a victory of Pimlico’s main track, which is notorious for favoring speed. 

Wanderin Boy is the old man of the field at 7  years old.  The Nick Zitotrainee has probably seen better days, but he still belongs with this group.

Student Council brings his cool $1 million in stakes earnings to the table.  He’s the winner of the prestigious Grade 1 Pacific Classic, but has not been able to cash in his last 4 starts. 

The pace could be hot in this one, with Wanderin Boy, Gotcha Gold, Ryan’s For Real, XChanger, and Temporary Saint all potentially going for the lead.  Heck, even Grasshopper has been on the gas early in the past as evidenced by his Travers replay above.  This could open things up for A.P. Arrow to be moving well late.  I also believe Grasshopper will be rating on Friday rather than on the gas, so count him amongst those that could benefit from a hot early pace.  I think Gotcha Gold has the best chance of the speed horses to hang on for share - should the pace develop so hotly.  

I”m likely going to go with Grasshopper for the win, with A.P. Arrow underneath for place.  I expect A.P. Arrow will take most of the play, but I’m curious to see how he performs in the dreaded first race back from Dubai.  I don’t necessarily buy into that notion, but enough  horses have flopped on their returns to provide at least a moment of pause.  The field looks wide open though so if you’re planning on launching some multi-race tickets it might be wise to leave yourself some room for multiple selections here. 

The field for the 84thrunning of the Black Eyed Susan Stakes, the highlight of the Friday card (with all due respect to the Pimlico Special) at Pimlico and namesake of the traditional drink of the Preakness has been officially set.  While not of the same caliber as races such as the Kentucky Oaks, the Black Eyed Susan is no slouch.  The Grade 2 race is run over 1 1/8 miles for a purse of $200,000.  Let’s take a look at the field along with jockeys and morning line odds.

1. Sherine (Alan Garcia) / 1A Pious Ashley (Kent Desormeaux) 8/1
2. Sweet Vendetta (Channing Hill) 8/1
3. Maren’s Meadow (Gabriel Saez) 15/1
4. Highest Class (Robby Albarado) 7/2
5. Bsharpsonata (Eric Camacho) 9/5*
6. Seattle Smooth (Edgar Prado) 10/1
7. One Step Ahead (Pablo Morales) 30/1
8. Shes All Eltish (Garrett Gomez) 5/2

RIght away the two horses that jump out at you are Bsharpsonata and Shes All Eltish.  Bsharpsonata will take a lot of play being a Maryland bred running in the State’s biggest filly race of the year.  She just competed in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, making Friday’s race something of an equivalent to the feat that Big Brown is attempting on Saturday.  Of course, Bsharpsonata didn’t win the Kentucky Oaks - that honor went to Proud Spell.  The Oaks played out rather strangely for Bsharpsonata, who led the field into the stretch.  I’d expect her to rate a bit more on Friday in more of a tactical/stalking position. 

Bsharpsonata takes on a tough field in the Ashland Stakes, losing to eventual KY Oaks runner up Little Belle by a neck.

Shes All Eltish is a filly I’ve used before that has a victory in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes at Gulfstream Park (by 6 3/4 lengths, no less).  Last time out she finished a disappointing 4th on the grass, and should appreciate a switch back to dirt on Friday.  It’s rumored that her connections think she gets a bit worked up from time to time - you can see this early in the race replay of the Bonnie Miss below, and this was probably the reason she was not entered in the Kentucky Oaks.

Shes All Eltish takes the Bonnie Miss Stakes - Gulfstream Park 3/29/08

Another horse that may get overlooked here is Maren’s Meadow.  She won the Grade 3 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park in her most recent race.  It remains to be seen if she can transfer that form from the Polytrack to the dirt, but she looks like one that could be on the gas early helping to set the pace. 

Maren’s Meadow rolls in the Bourbonette Oaks

Highest Class is a daughter of Mineshaft that tends to find the bottom of trifecta tickets.  It is noteworthy that she ran very close to Indian Blessing in the Grade 2 Silverbulletday Stakes - so there is some talent here and a step forward is possible.

I think this race will come down to whether Maren’s Meadow can get to a clear lead and hang on, or whether Shes All Eltish and Bsharpsonatawill be able to catch her in the stretch.  I’d expect the latter rather than the former, although the odds might be sweet enough on Maren’s Meadow to make a saver bet.  Shes All Eltish is the horse I expect to prevail on Friday if all goes well.  I’d play Bsharpsonata over her, but am a bit worried about the 2 weeks of rest since the Oaks.  That race was in the slop and even though she apparently came back well, I’m a little hesitant to take her at 9/5.   I think you’ve got to use Highest Class underneathth if you’re playing the trifecta.   Take a good look at Sweet Vendetta and Seattle Smooth in the post parade as well, for they could be players in the exotics when all is said and done.

Source: http://www.pimlico.com/NewsEvents/FeatureStories/Details/Baltimore051308BESA.htm

Just a quick update for today.  The bulk of my Preakness posts will be coming later in the week as I attempt to attend the Alibi breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday, and then take in both the Black Eyed Susan and Preakness cards on Friday and Saturday.  Once the post positions have been established on Wednesday night I’ll have a “meet the Preakness runners” post similar to the numerous Derby updates we had earlier in the year (pics, videos, bios, etc.)

Source: http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=32431

Word is out that Harlem Rocker is not going to enter the Preakness.  Harlem Rocker was thought to be one of the main contenders (assuming anyone can contend with Big Brown) had he drawn in, but the connections have decided to pass.  I can’t say I blame them, no matter how badly I wanted him to run.  Harlem Rocker will likely point to the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine later in June. 

While the news of Harlem Rocker not entering the Preakness put a bit of a damper on the day, we also got word that Gayego may be coming after all.   Many of you will remember my less-than-clairvoyant dream of Gayego winning the Kentucky Derby.  Well, get ready, because now I can tease myself with the idea that perhaps I was mistaken about which race I dreamt of.  It’s a long-shot, but I’ve got to be honest and say that I still am interested in Gayego and have got a bit of a soft spot for him in my heart.

It will take improvement, it goes without saying, for a horse that finished 17th in the Derby to turn the tables on Big Brown.  I’m reminded of the daunting task Curlin had last year in the Preakness to make up a fraction of the ground that Gayego would have to close in order to prevail.  Gayego certainly isn’t Curlin, but he does have a Graded Stakes win over the dirt in the Arkansas Derby.   As much of a long-shot as it may be, it certainly isn’t impossible.  I won’t call it “likely” by any stretch of the imagination, but this is horse racing and stranger things have happened.

I would have thought that Gayego may have pointed to the Belmont instead, in an effort to give the colt some needed rest.  Steve Asmussen was on record as being a tad concerned about how much the Arkansas Derby took out of 2nd place finisher Z Fortune heading into the Derby, and certainly the trip that Gayego encountered two Saturday’s ago didn’t leave many with the idea that a trip to Baltimore was in order.

Still, can’t argue with the prospects of a practically full Preakness field - especially since just a week ago it seemed as if Big Brown had scared everyone off.  If nothing else, a full field will ensure there’s some money on the other horses, which could boost the Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets that are likely to be singled on Big Brown in the feature race.  That’s going to be my hope, at least.   Hopefully we can catch some value in the previous races and look to what appears to be a “sure thing” lock to help keep the overall ticket cost down.  Not only that, but consider that the more horses who enter, the better the potential exacta/trifecta payouts can be if you can find the right horses underneath.

Big Brown may have defeated the group we thought were the best 3 year-olds in the country at the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but Saturday at Belmont Park a colt named Casino Drive proved there may still be hurdles left to climb with a resounding 5 3/4 length victory in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes.  The Peter Pan serves as a spring board for Belmont hopefuls in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

The son of Mineshaft also boasts an impressive 11 3/4 length victory in Japan.  The competition he bested in the Peter Pan included Mint Lane, Golden Spikes, and Tomcito, among others. The final time for the Peter Pan was 1:47.87. 

Did we just see a superstar in the making? He looks like he’ll be tough in the Belmont to me.  Note that he’s a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches - so we’ve got some Belmont goodness in those genes.  Casino Drive is trained by Kazua Fujisawa, who is trying to become the first Japanese trainer to win a Triple Crown race in the U.S.

We’ll have to see who might pick up the mount in the Belmont though, as doubtless Kent Desormeaux (who rides both Big Brown and Casino Drive) will stick with Big Brown.  It’s just a shame we didn’t find out about this guy in time for the Preakness. 

It’s been a while since I posted some handicapping picks, as I”ve been so caught up in keeping up with the Triple Crown races.  Today is Mother’s Day, and what better way to show mom how much you care than by winning some sweet cash at Hollywood Park?  I’m kidding of course, but it is a gorgeous day to play, and the card looks very competitive.  We’ve got 9 races in total. I’m only covering the early and late pick 4 sequences (no offense, race 5), and will have my theoretical tickets for each as they look now posted within the selections.  If you are playing, don’t forget to take into account late scratches and post parade impressions - which can totally alter the direction you are leaning as a bettor. 

Race 1: 

• #8 Applaud Dubai (5/2*)
• #3 Song of Illinois (8/1)
• #1 Almacita (3/1)

The first race is a $16k claimer for 3 year-old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  I like the favorite #8 Applaud Dubai to kick off the early pick 4 in good form.  I know she’s got the outside post to contend with, but I love playing last-out-winners at these lower claiming levels.  Add a slight class drop and a slow break in her last trip we should be able to cash in early on a single in the early Pick 4.  Underneath I like #6 Song of Illinois at 8/1.  If you toss that last turf race she could be right there.  She’s also dropping in class and into more favorable conditions.  Nakatani sweetens the deal further as the jockey.  #1 Almacita drops slightly after being closer last out.  She could be moving best of the pack late, and trainer Mike Mitchell is due for a score.

Race 2:

• #8 Artistryandrythm (6/1)
• #6 Princess Arjumand (3/1)
• #9 Hint of Lavender (12/1)
• #7 Dice Affair (15/1)

The 2nd race is a $40k Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 years-old and upward going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  This one looks wide open to me and I went a bit deep here covering 4 horses, none of which is the favorite.  I know….shocking coming from a chalk eater such as myself.  #8 Artistryandrhythm looks best to me.  You get the best Beyer’s of the field, and offspring of Officer do very well early on.  She’s also dropping slightly in class and can improve from a slow-start last time out.  I see plenty of reasons to anticipate improvement, and there aren’t any monsters here.  #6 Princess Arjumand should enjoy both the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs and the drop in class from the Maiden Special Weight rankings.  #9 Hint of Lavender could end up being the speed of the speed in an otherwise speedless sprint. #7 Dice Affair is a contender for me because I can’t ignore the combo of Vladimir Cerin and Joe Talamo - who are 38% so far for the meet together. 

Race 3:

• #4 Miss Singhsix (3/1)
• #3 Ginger Pop (6/1)
• #1 Fire n’ Brimstone (2/1*)

The third race is an $80k Optional Claimer (N1X) for fillies going 1 mile over the turf course.  #4 Miss Singhsix gets the nod due to her impressive pedigree.  Her sire won the Grade 1 Japan Cup and Canadian International, and placed in the Breeder’s Cup Turf, and Grand Prix de Paris.  It’s also worth noting that Alex Solis could have chosen to ride #3 Ginger Pop, but instead stays aboard Singhsix.  Ginger Pop comes off a close maiden score at the special weight level, but does look to me to be a very good filly.  I’d prefer another sprint prep heading into this route try, but if she’s as good as I think she is she’ll still be a contender.  #1 Fire n’ Brimstone looks like a vulnerable favorite to me.  I was close between this one and #2 Harmony Creator.  In the end I went with ‘Brimstone as the 3rd choice because she seems to enjoy the distance of today’s race better. 

Race 4:

• #4 Tizmet (6/1)
• #1 Full In (6/1)
• #7 Scrummage (4/1)
• #9 The Supply Program (3/1*)

The fourth race, a $16k Claimer for four year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main track, is the final leg of the early Pick 4 sequence.   Yet again, I’m not sold on the favorite.  #4 Tizmet looks quite useful here to me.  Doug O’Niell is taking the blinkers off, which typically isn’t as strong a betting angle as putting the blinkers on, but with O’Niell (20% in such situations), you have to take notice.  I like that Tizmet is switching back to the main track after a less than impressive turf route, and is dropping in class from the Allowance ranks.  He should get the pace setup in front of him that he needs to score.  #1 Full In is one I’m luke warm about.  I like his running style here against the probable pace, but I don’t like that red-flag class drop from $50k to $16k.  #7 Scrummage is hard to ignore with those gaudy Beyer figures, but could get torched if the pace is too hot.  Still, note that he did “fight back” in the stretch 2 races back.  Perhaps he can hang on here?  The favorite is #9 The Supply Program, who could be playable if he makes a good post parade impression. 

Early Pick 4:  8 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,9  ($48 Total)

(note: skipping Race #5 since it is not part of the pick 4 sequences)

Race 6:

• #5 Power Shift (5/2*)
• #2 Grits (8/1)
• #7 Forest Danz (4/1)

The late Pick 4 kicks off with race #6, a $25k Claimer for four year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track. #5 Power Shift looks awfully tough to beat here.  Jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Jeff Mullins team up on this 5 year-old gelding.  Mullins in particular is absolutely lethal fresh off the claim.  The May 5th workout of 5 furlongs in 59 and change shows me he’s fit and ready to run.  He hasn’t run his best over 6 furlongs, but I like the confident move forward.  #2 Grits is one that will have to live up to his name in the stretch.  Doug O’Neill is simply due and this guy ran well at the $50k level last summer. He should be ready to move forward with one start under his belt following a long layoff.  It’s encouraging to see O’Neill is moving him up in class.  I like the signs I”m seeing.  #7 Forest Danz is in sharp recent form for trainer John Sadler, who is also due to heat up a bit. 

Race 7:

• #5 Medzendeekron (2/1*)
• #2 Towzee (9/2)
• #7 World Asunder (10/1)

The 7th race is a $62k Optional Claimer (N2X) for three year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the turf.  #5 Medzendeekron looms as the favorite, but will have to switch back to turf today. It’s anyone’s guess if his recent form will hold.  I wouldn’t bet against it, but you could make a case to play against him.  Trainer Barry Abrams hasn’t made many wrong moves thus far this meet though (57% winner).  #2 Towzee looks like the top competitor to me.  He’s got strong recent turf form and Beyer figures.  He should be charging late and moving the best of the field in the stretch.  It’s nice to see Alex Solis hop aboard again.  #7 World Asunder could be the speed of the speed, but this is turf racing and such a novelty usually doesn’t transfer to the winner’s circle as well as it does on dirt and/or synthetics. There’s also other speed here in this race (Luis’s Especial and Faulkwood Shores, specifically) which would seem to hinder his chances.

Race 8:

• #5 Lethal Heat (9/5*)
• #2 Magical Victory (12/1)
• #1 Sweet Hope (8/1)

The 8th race is the 46th running of the Grade 3 Railbird Stakes, a 7 furlong event for three year-old fillies on the main track.  #5 Lethal Heat is a perfect 3 for 3, including a G3 Stakes win in the Santa Paula at Santa Anita on 3/30/08.  Bejarano climbs aboard and he’s got some impressive morning moves to consider as well. Trainer Barry Abrams is a ridiculous 4 for 7 so far this meet.  Looks like a worthy favorite to me.  #2 Magical Victory is a real steal at 12/1.  I was considering him and #7 Homemade Brew, but sided with Magical Victory as the former has struggled beyond 6 furlongs.  Magical Victory is out of Grade 1 winner Miss Houdini, and looks like she’ll enjoy the extra furlong today.  Note her workout on 5/8/08 - 4 furlongs in 45 and change.  Sure appears she’s ready to run today, doesn’t it? #1 Sweet Hope is hard to leave out of the mix considering that 97 Beyer figure. She’s also shown that she can handle the tricky 7 furlong distance.  Still, this will be a move up from the claiming company she last faced at Bay Meadows. 

Race 9:

• #5 Dawn Star Rising (7/2)
• #6 Distant Victory (9/2)
• #7 Bee’s Cee (5/2*)

The final race on the card is a $48k Maiden Special Weight for state bred fillies and mares 3 years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  #5 Dawn Star Rising gets top nod due primarily to the track record of her sire, Decarchy, who is 27% with debuters.  Trainer Vladimir Cerin and jockey Joe Talamo are a mind blowing 38% when together, and it looks like Cerin has given him the call on a live one again today ($140k purchase in October of 2006).  #5 Distant Victory also comes from a good win early sire (Distant View), and has those Mr. Prospector/Deputy Minister bloodlines that we’ve seen on display before.  Add in Victory Espinoza, who is winning at a 26% clip, and a strong workout on 4/16 (6 furlongs in 1:11.80), and I’m thinking this miss might show up running in her debut.  #7 Bee’s Cee is the favorite at 5/2.  The reason the horse is favored are the same reasons you can’t afford to leave her off your tickets.  While her sire, Cee’s Tizzy isn’t the best win early sire, due note the incredible morning drills, most notably 6 furlongs in 1:09.80 on May 3rd.  That ought to be fast enough to crush the competition if it translates to the track today.

Late Pick 4:   2,5,7 with 2,5 with 2,5 with 5,6,7 ($36 Total)

Best of luck to all, and Happy Mother’s Day.

The challengers keep lining up.  You can add Icabad Crane, the Graham Motion colt who last won the Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on April 19.  On the down side you can scratch the fifth placed finishe from the Kentucky Derby, Recapturetheglory, who is out with a fever and will miss the Preakness.  Recapturetheglory was the only horse returning from the Derby to face Big Brown, who instead will face an entire field of fresh faces.

I happened to be at Pimlico the day that Icabad Crane won the Tesio and got a good look at him.  Rumors were swirling even then that he would be entered into the Preakness.  I thought he looked good, but he’ll face a whole new caliber a competition than he saw in the Tesio. 

Jeremy Rose usually gets the mount, so you can be confident in the fact that both horse and rider are fond of the course.  In the Tesio he ran down the front running Mint Lane on a day where speed holding was pretty well.  Speed usually holds at Pimlico in my opinion, and it goes without saying that Mint Lane is not on the same level as Big Brown.  He is the type of horse that would appear could benefit if Big Brown were to get some contention up front. 

Icabad Crane wins the Federico Tesio at Pimlico 4/19/08

You can never count Graham Motion out at Pimlico though, that much I know for certain.

Source: NTRA.com: Icabad Crane heading to the Preakness