Belmont Selections

10 06 2011

Race 6: Grade 1 TVG Acorn

I Want My TVG

The TVG Acorn was placed at the front of the Pick 6 sequence, and this would appear to be at least partially due to the presence of  #2 Turbulent Descent.  The daughter of Congrats is 5 for 6 lifetime, losing only to Zazu last February (whom she promptly returned to defeat next out).  She won’t offer much value at 3/5, but she looks like a worthy favorite and would figure to be very tough to defeat in this race.  She’ll be a single on many Pick 6 tickets and for good reason.  Fellow handicapper Derek Simon has made a few counterpoints regarding the Acorn that are worth checking out, so for those of us singling on the heavy chalk we may find ourselves in Dire Straits attempting to get our money from nothing and our bets for free.

#4 It’s Tricky could be an interesting choice, assuming you are comfortable drawing a line through that last effort in the Gulfstream Oaks.  I think she may be a better horse than either #1 Her Smile or #3 Savvy Supreme, even if the latter can control things from the front end.   All of this sets up what appears to be a very chalky opening to the stakes exotics for the day, so why not spice things up a bit by adding in the longshot of the field underneath at 10/1?  #5 Victoria’s Wildcat is only a neck away from reeling off 4 straight wins since switching to the dirt, and has progressed through the Grade 3 ranks in the process.  She’s improving, has worked well, and at 10/1 I think she’s worth a shot in the underneath slots.

Exacta: 2/4,5

Trifecta: 2/4,5/3,4,5

Race 7: Grade 2 True North Handicap

If (like me) you consider chestnuts to be the most striking of thoroughbreds, the Grade 2 True North is the race for you with 6 of 8 horses sporting the dapper reddish-brown hue.  The formidable coupled entry of Anthony Dutrow runners breaking from the inside and outside (chestnuts both) have earned slight morning line favoritism at 2/1 and would appear to be logical horses you’d have to cover on the exotics.  #1 D’funnybone is best going another furlong, and #1A This Ones For Phil, while very fast, is lightly raced in the last year and a half.  I don’t think they can be considered slam dunks and I’ll make an attempt to beat them in my exacta/trifecta plays.

#3 Trappe Shot (also a chestnut) for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is my top choice here.  The son of Tapit was 2nd in the G1 Haskell last summer while routing, and has been dangerous on this track and at the distance.  I still think he could have a future going 2 turns as well, but for now the connections seem content on sprinting.  I’ll also take a chance with multiple G3 winner #5 Calibrachoa (not a chestnut) on top in search of slightly greater value.  He’s won four straight before the recent break but will have to bring his best to win this.  #2 Wildcat Brief (another chestnut) could round things out rolling late for and underneath placement.

Exacta: 3,5/1,3,5  

Trifecta: 3,5/1,3,5/1,2,3,5

Race 7: Grade 2 Woody Stephens

There is no Woody Stephens, only Zuul!!!

Looking over the Woody Stephens field, I couldn’t help but remember the line in Ghostbusters just before the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man lumbered his way on screen.  ”The traveller has been chosen!”  That would seem to be a fitting euphemism for this year’s race, given the names of  two logical win candidates in this field.  Unfortunately, they are the top choices on the morning line.

#1 Travellin Man cuts back to the 7 furlong distance that he prevailed at in the G2 Swale.  Of particular interest for this race is his propensity to finish ahead of #6 Little Drama in two of his recent starts (though also note he was defeated by #7 J J’s Lucky Train last out).

James Jerkens will send out #5 Arch Traveller, who made a significant speed figure improvement in his last start over the Belmont dirt.  Bounce players may be looking for a regression, but the son of Sky Mesa has won his last three races that did not include the likes of Dialed In or Shackleford.  We’ll go ahead and make him top selection for now, but will keep a close eye on the tote board to see which travel-themed entry gives us the best value.

As for #6 Little Drama, like the name implies he is capable of making things interesting, but he seems more likely to settle for an underneath placement.   A horse that might be being overlooked here is the outside runner #7 J J’s Lucky Train.  As previously noted , he’s finished ahead of the favorite in the last effort, and has also beaten another of today’s rivals, #2 Justin Phillip (who is still seeking his first stakes victory).  I’ll be adding this one to my exotics and hoping for a possible price.

Exacta: 1,5/1,5,6,7

Trifecta: 1,5/1,5,7/1,5,6,7

 Pick 4 (Races 8 through 11): 1,5,7/1,2,5/4,7 /1,5,6,9,12

Race 9: Grade 1 Just A Game

Outside of the contentious feature race of the day, the Just A Game may be the best betting race of the sequence.  It’s certainly among the most difficult to decipher.  Many times handicappers will search for a key race to serve as a barometer when measuring closely ranked contenders.  While we don’t have that here, we do have what might be considered a key horse, as 6 of the 9 runners show a recent tilt against Never Retreat, with varying degrees of success.

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to #2 Aviate, who skipped over the Churchill surface on Derby day to win her first U.S. race (losing her U.S. debut to, you guessed it, Never Retreat).  The Churchill turf was listed as firm that day, but I think there was a little give in the ground and this daughter of Dansili would likely enjoy a little moisture if the heavens decide to open up.  She has trained over the Belmont turf within the last week and certainly is a serious contender you have to respect in the exotics, but as far as single race wagers go this race looks competitive enough to try and beat her at a price.

#1 Gypsy’s Warning heads out for trainer Graham Motion after a very disappointing 7th place finish in the G2 Jenny Wiley in mid-April.  Perhaps she just wasn’t fond of the Keeneland grass?  If you draw a line through that race, she’s a Grade 1 winner at the mile distance, although that was out at Hollywood.  A win for Graham Motion here would be totally mag (gypsy for magnificent), and 5/1 is a fair price in my opinion.   The rest of the field has taken turns beating each other and competing with Never Retreat, making them very difficult to separate beyond these top two.

I thought #5 Strike The Bell was a little interesting here at 12/1 with the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard.  The daughter of Mizzen Mast seems to run her best at the mile distance and seems to do okay on the Belmont turf.  #6 Fantasia and #4 C.S. Silk are also logical contenders at decent odds.  #3 Amen Hallelujah is a near lock to hit the board, but I can’t play to her win as she hasn’t prevailed since last February.

Exacta: 1,2,5 (box)

Trifecta: 1/2,3,5/2,3,4,5,6,7

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap 

There’s a decidedly royal theme when looking over the field for the The Manhattan – which is fitting for a race marking the return of the U.S. turf king #4 Gio Ponti.  Gio will have to overcome the much ballyhooed Dubai bounce to prevail, but the 6/5 morning line favorite has been stateside for a while now showing 4 local works over the Belmont turf.  He’s thrived here before, winning 5 races and finishing in the exacta in all 8 attempts.  Just keep in mind that stranger things have happened as Gio lost this race last year to stablemate Winchester in a similar setup (prompting yours truly to declare Winchester “a repeater”).

To be fair, the rest of the field doesn’t look particularly difficult to overcome. We don’t have a contender coming in with form quite like Winchester did last year, but you may want to think about adding in #7 Prince Will I Am as a logical contender for top honors.  The son of Victory Gallop has quietly had a decent 2011 campaign with a victory at the G2 level and a respectable 5th in the G1 Turf Classic.

The other contenders that appear to have an outside chance include #6 Viscount Nelson, who would be more attractive to me if he hadn’t raced in Ireland as recently as 6/3, and #3 Windward Islands who appears to be a logical horse to use underneath in the exotics and could be a Falklands style thorn in the side of the other royals.  Lastly, for the feel-good story of the year, I’ll try to find a way to use #2 Bold Hawk on the bottom of my tickets.

Exacta: 4,7/3,4,6,7

Trifecta: 4/3,6,7/2,3,5,6,7

Race 11:  G1 Belmont Stakes

And down the stretch we come.  Every year it seems the end of the Triple Crown season gets here faster than before.  What a season it’s been for bettors as well.  Animal Kingdom and Shackleford lighting up the tote board in the Derby and Preakness?  Favorites failing in both legs so far?  One would expect that trend may continue here in the final 2 furlongs of the Belmont – a race which has not been particularly kind to Derby and/or Preakness winners in recent history.  That said, I do believe that #9 Animal Kingdom and #12 Shackleford have established themselves as the cream of the crop thus far.  Animal Kingdom in particular should get the Belmont distance without any trouble, but he’s going to need to be a bit closer up than he was in the Preakness as the Belmont does not traditionally setup well for a late closer.  Somewhere around midpack would be ideal, I would think.

Shack-attack drew fairly poorly to the outside, which means he may have to run a step or two quicker towards the first turn than they’d prefer.  His best chance would be to get clear and then try to slow things down, I would think.   As for the “world’s biggest Shackleford fan” here at home with me (my wife)?  She thinks he doesn’t have a good chance to win here due to the distance, and I’d tend to agree with her.  I’m still going to cover him in the exotics, but I’m definitely leaning elsewhere with my top selections.  As for the Animal?  Big chance – but the odds are too low to get excited about.

Looking elsewhere in the field, I thought #1 Master of Hounds was a logical horse to consider adding in at a square price of 10/1 on the morning line.  He finished respectably in the Derby (5th) and like the favorite should be able to handle the distance without too much difficulty.  I haven’t heard much about him this week though, and coupled with Animal Kingdom would make my selections a tad closer-heavy for the moment.

#6 Nehro is a fairly obvious contender to include on my plays.  To be honest, I’d probably make the fiddling emperor top choice if not for slight concerns I have about the distance and with respect to jockey Cory Nakatani’s ability to get a prime trip out of him.  That move he made in the Derby to challenge Shackleford looked like it was going to win the day, and a similar trip gets him first jump on Shackleford as the field enters the stretch, which should give him a big shot.  There’s not much value to be had though at 4/1.

I’m also going to add in #5 Brilliant Speed as the bomber play for my tickets.  Admittedly it’s a wing and a prayer, but I do love me some Dynaformers and I’d like to see trainer Tom Albertrani take a Triple Crown race like I thought he might do with Odysseus last year.  Hopefully, as has been rumored, he’ll be closer up early on and not just another late running closer in my selections.

Obviously then, if recent history is any indication, your likely winners will be the horses I’m not playing, in particular #2 Stay Thirsty, #4 Santiva, or #10 Mucho Macho Man.  I could make a case for these guys as well, but you know the drill – can’t pick ‘em all.

Exacta/Superfecta: 1,5,6,9,12 (box)


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Shackleford Not Rusty in Preakness Victory

22 05 2011

“There he is – go up and see him!”

These were the words of encouragement I spoke to my wife on Thursday morning at Pimlico when we arrived to see the final Preakness workouts.  ”He”, of course, referred to her favorite 3-year-old in training, Shackleford, who had turned for home in the Derby in what seemed to be excellent shape after setting amazingly slow early fractions.  However, as we all know, it simply was not meant to be  for Shackleford and his supporters on the first Saturday in May.  Instead the final few hundred yards of Churchill stretch were to be all about Animal Kingdom.  As attention shifted to Baltimore, hardly anyone gave the front-running colt as much as a puncher’s chance.

Yet there he was this week looking regal as ever coming back from his gallop.  The son of Forestry strikes quite the figure on the track with his gorgeous chestnut coat.  As they brought him passed the stands, I blurted out somewhat awkwardly “Hey Shack – here’s your biggest fan!” while gesturing emphatically to my wife.  We snapped what photos we could while she commented on what a beautiful horse he was.   He had looked amazing in the Churchill paddock as well – at least as far as we could tell from the NBC broadcast in the comfort of our living room – but seeing him up close took things to a whole new level and left her somewhat breathless.

Shackleford working out on Thursday morning at Pimlico prior to his victory in the 2011 Preakness.

Later that morning she was able to speak with trainer Dale Romans and recount her Kentucky Derby experience.  When Shackleford cut that corner and came into the stretch, she had lept to her feet and began screaming her rear-end off.  Then she was forced to watch in dignified humility as the horse her husband was cheering for sailed passed her longshot in deep stretch.  ”My husband’s horse beat me in the Derby – I need you guys to get him this time around!” she joked to Dale as he signed a track program.  Upon returning from her encounter she promptly declared that Shack was going to be her Preakness pick and the only horse she would bet on to win.

Autograph of Dale Romans - trainer of 2011 Preakness champion Shackleford

“No way!” I scoffed.  “Why throw your money away like that?”

After all, If the horse couldn’t win after those Derby fractions, what chance would he have against a hotter pace in the Preakness?  Such considerations were trivial in her eyes.  Forget all the handicapping, the fractional times, and the supposed knowledge of the sport.  Sometimes it pays to have blind faith.  All that mattered to her was that she had found a horse to cheer for and believed in her heart of hearts actually had a chance.  In truth she did have a minor handicapping angle – repetitively insisting that the shorter distance of the Preakness would be more to Shackleford’s liking than it would Animal Kingdom’s – but it was the heart she was speaking with more than the mind (she had originally liked the horse because it reminded her of the alter ego of the character Dale Gribble, aka Rusty Shackleford, in the cartoon King of the Hill).

And it was the heart she was cheering with as her boy once again cut the corner and turned for home in the Preakness on Saturday.  At first glance I thought he was going to be swept passed by several horses yet again, but then he found more; picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down with determined effort.  My eyesight isn’t what it used to be when watching the track monitors, and it took me sometime in the confusion of the infield to figure out that the horse racing after him in the center of the track was my boy, Animal Kingdom.  Suddenly our voices rose as the excitement reached fever pitch.  Me screaming for my horse, and she for hers.  Down the stretch and into history.

If there’s one thing I have learned over the years following this game, it’s that things are cyclical – even if the connection is obfuscated at first glance.  It had been 4 years ago that we confidently strode into the Grandstands to see my beloved Curlin upset the Kentucky Derby winner.   Two years prior we had danced with joy near the winner’s circle as her beloved Rachel Alexandra held off another Derby winner (Mine That Bird) at the wire.  The in between years had been rather “meh” for us, as we were not fans of Big Brown or his trainer, Rick Dutrow (thanks to the absurd “paper rivalry” between he and Curlin), and hadn’t really felt an affinity with any of the 3-year-olds in last year’s crop once my boy Odysseus went down.

Had I been paying closer attention to that form cycle of on-off-on Preakness emotions, I may have walked out of the track with a lot more money in my pockets.  Paying greater attention to Shackleford himself would’ve done even greater good.

All week long my wife was subjected to the musings of everyone with a voice (including me) about what the horse couldn’t do.  She took it all in stride with dignified grace and quiet confidence.  All she cared about was what he could do.  For my part, I went into the race believing, as I always do, that the best 3-year-old wins the Preakness.   I believe strongly that recent history invites such a conclusion.  I just couldn’t see how Shackleford could be that horse?   Looking back at that Derby defeat, I think I do see it now.  The inside running lanes at Churchill may have simply been dead that weekend, and to the horse’s credit he did initially repel a very big move by Nehro before finally surrendering in deep stretch to the top 3 finishers.

Nobody was getting passed Shackleford today though.  In my heart I’ll always believe the Animal would’ve reeled him in with another few hundred yards, but such arguments are trivial.  The only thing that matters now is that for the rest of our lives, whenever we raise our Preakness glasses at Pimlico for a sip of  tasty Black Eyed Susans – there he will be.  Shackleford – enshrined along with the names of some of the greatest race horses to have ever lived.

He did it, babe.  I’ll be damned, but he did it.


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Handicapping Selections, Pimlico, Preakness, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Full Card Selections

20 05 2011

It just wouldn’t be Preakness without some picks here at the Aspiring Horseplayer, would it?   Much has happened between the last time I had the opportunity to post and now.  Most significantly, I managed to nail my first Kentucky Derby winner correctly since Barbaro in 2006 when Animal Kingdom soared home at 21/1.  Feels good to get that monkey off my back!  That was likely the loudest I’ve screamed since another certain chestnut who was the subject of many a post here race his last race.   The victory connected my hometown roots with my Derby selections once again – as Fair Hill (home of the late Barbaro and now Animal Kingdom) was the spot were my lifelong love affair with horse racing first began within walking distance of my boyhood home.  What remains to be seen is if my streak of correct Preakness selections stretching back to Curlin in 2007 is now about to change as well?

Will there be enough magic in the Maryland air to bring us yet again within sight of the elusive Triple Crown that has remained just out of reach since the first month of my life in 1978?  In 24 hours we’ll know for sure.  Before we get to the big event, let’s spend some time going over the undercard races to see if we can pick a few winners.

Race 1:  Alw 31000 N1X (6 Furlongs)

We start things off with a 6 furlong conditional allowance event on the main track.  This one is for the early birds as post time is slated for 10:45AM.  Speed seemed to be holding up fairly well from what I could tell on Friday, so I wouldn’t have any concern going with a front runner if you land on one – but definitely pay attention to how that plays all day.  I went with #2 Boreal Forest as the horse most likely to shake loose in the opener and look to wire the field.  #8 Forest King has served as his main rival in the last two starts, and they appear destined to renew that matchup today.  If you’re looking for a price horse, #3 Devilish Gait makes some sense rolling from farther back in the pack at 12/1.  I might be tempted to use #1 Issues And Answers and #9 Technique (homer Graham Motion pick) on the bottom of the exotics.

  • #2 Boreal Forest (9/5*)
  • #8 Forest King (7/2)
  • #3 Devilish Gait (12/1)

Race 2:  Hcp 75002 (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of nine Maryland-breds awaits in the 2nd race of the day.  #2 Joel’s Touch may be able to get loose on the lead in a race that looks fairly paceless on paper, which would boost his chances significantly, but it’s hard to back a horse that is 0 for 5 at the distance and appears to want shorter.  #5 Heavenstmurgatroid took a huge move forward last out, and will probably have every bounce player in the country betting against him.  He should get a nice trip once again and anything close to that last effort would be good enough. #9 No Brakes may be the best horse of the field, but he didn’t get a lot of pace to close into and the post position Gods were less than kind.  Another horse I thought rated a shot is #1 Say Now at 12/1.  This horse has won 3 of his last 4 starts and drew a favorable rail position, although he has been off since February.  Lastly, there’s West Virginia invader #6 Across The Wind at 10/1.  Winner of 4 straight starts last fall who, judging by the last 3 efforts, may have found his way again.

  • #5 Heavenstmurgatroid (8/5*)
  • #9 No Brakes (9/5)
  • #1 Say Now (12/1)

Race 3:  Alw 29000 N1X (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

The presence of #6 Battleground and #8 Gotta Believe Me should ensure a decent pace in the 3rd race of the day on the turf track.  I thought this might set things up very well for the man of the hour, trainer Graham Motion, and his #5 Golden Causeway making his first career turf start.  He should be able to sit stalk behind the leaders and if he takes to the Pimlico grass will have a big chance.  Likewise, there are positives about Graham’s other entry #11 Rampaige coming out of flat effort on the Keeneland plastic. #9 Double Eagle has the gaudy speed figures that many will focus on, but is clearly beatable having not won since last June.  Similarly, #12 Live The Dash has some impressive figures, but on paper is a one-turn sprinter.  Perhaps Julien Leparoux can get Majestictroubadour figured out and turned back in the right direction?

  • #5 Golden Causeway (3/1)
  • #9 Double Eagle (5/2)
  • #11 Rampaige (10/1)

Race 4: Grade 3 Allaire Dupont Distaff (1 1/16 Miles)

This race is all about #4 Life At Ten.  If the horse that many felt was a lock for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last fall before a post time debacle of epic proportions show up in her 2nd start of the year, this one could be over before it’s run.  The main threat may come from the former Black Eyed Susan champion #2 Payton D’oro, who has the strong tandem of trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez in her corner.  #6 Check Point is a fairly consistent daughter of Posse who should be able to give a good account of herself as well.  Then you have #3 Decelerator, who should be on the gas trying to gun for the lead. If she gets there, an upset could be in the making.  Still think that even not on her best that Life At Ten is simply too much for this field.

  • #4 Life At Ten (4/5*)
  • #2 Payton D’oro (4/1)
  • #3 Decelerator (5/1)

Race 5: OC 25000 N2X (5 Furlongs – Turf)

Turf sprints – my arch nemesis.  I’ll try to keep things simple here.  #4 Princess Malka exists back to back scores against similar, the last victory came despite being steadied.   With Sheldon Russell in the irons, I think this is the horse to beat.  #11 Toni’s The Won also exits consecutive victories, but drew a bit more unfavorably for a 5 furlong sprint.  Then there’s #8 Easy Ashley who like the others mentioned has a mini winning streak going – but will return to the grass this time out. #1 Belarus should be moving well late and may have a chance to spring the upset.

  • #4 Princess Malka (9/2)
  • #11 Toni’s The Won (5/1)
  • #8 Easy Ashley (7/2*)

Race 6: Chick Lang Sprint (6 Furlongs)

This is one tough race.  You could make a case for each of the 9 entries to win this thing as they aren’t separated by much.  I gave the checkmark to Todd Pletcher’s #4 Escort, who defeated 12 and posted a huge speed figure at Gulfstream 3 races back.  I”m willing to forgive the Keeneland debacle last out.   Since it’s such a contentious field, I’m also going to take a swing with #2 Chipshot at 10/1 on my deepest exotics.  If you’ve been burned by this guy before, today may be the day to catch him at a decent price.  #6 Road Ready looks ready to roll as well, but you can’t overlook the class of the field in #5 Vengeful Wildcat at 3/1.

  • #3 Vengeful Wildcat (3/1*)
  • #4 Escort (7/2)
  • #2 Chipshot (10/1)

Race 7: JW Murphy Sprint (1 Mile – Turf)

We move back to the grass for the 7th race.  This field was somewhat difficult for me to separate.  Starting from the inside, you have the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard #1 Master Dunker.  Ultimately I liked the two outside runners best, #9 Humble And Hungry - who’s van I think I passed on the road shipping in from Sagamore, and the classy #10 Joe’s Blazing Aaron for trainer Michael Maker.  #4 Lil Bit O Fun and #1 Master Dunker have me on the fence about using, and the longshot I’d like to play on the bottom of my tickets is #7 Broad Rule.

  • #9 Humble And Hungry (5/1)
  • #10 Joes Blazing Aaron (5/2*)
  • #7 Broad Rule (12/1)

Race 8:  Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (6 Furlongs)

Ready for another sprint? #3 Nathan’s H Q should be be the speed in this race, and  that should set him up nicely for a big run.  I”m not a big fan of the 8/5 favorite, #5 Ventana as I feel I’ve burned too many tickets over my life on that horse when he runs for minor awards.  #8 Safety Check looks interesting with a strong debut effort for the 2011 campaign last out.  I feel obligated to use #7 China because I’ll never hear the end of it from my wife, who happens to be Chinese, if/when the horse runs big.  Lucky for me he actually turned up in my handicapping as a possibility.

  • #3 Nathan’s H Q (4/1)
  • #8 Safety Check (9/2)
  • #7 China (6/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

I’m still kicking myself for not having used my boy Graham Motion’s big winner on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall in #6 Shared Account.  Gone are the prospects for anything like the 46/1 odds her supporters reaped that day. Instead I’ll have to settle on 4/5 chalk.   There are a few other horses I think are worth covering in the late Pick 4 that begins on this race.  #7 Desert Sage makes some sense exiting back-to-back victories for trainer Chad Brown.  #2 No Explaining is a consistent Irish-bred filly who can make some noise in this race.  Lastly, you have to pay attention to the outside runner, #8 Dyna Waltz.  She may want more ground in an ideal setup, but I think you play against classy Dynaformers on the turf (especially with Dominguez aboard) at your own risk.

  • #6 Shared Account (4/5*)
  • #7 Desert Sage (5/1)
  • #2 No Explaining  (4/1)

Race 10: Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Memorial (1 1/16 Miles)

There’s a bit of intrigue in the WD Schaefer this year as #3 Eighttofasttocatch is also entered in the Dixie Stakes – but this race would appear to make much more sense for the son of Not For Love as he’s won back-to-back starts over the Laurel main track.  He’ll need to bring his A-game wherever he winds up, as some classy horses await, including the 3rd place finisher from the 2008 Preakness, #5 Icabad Crane.  ”Icky”, as some of us refer to him, has always thrived at Pimlico and should have a good shot here if he can get a target to run at.  He’s been on the shelf since February, so he may need a race, which is why you have to spread things around a bit and also cover #2 Apart and the speedy #8 Colizeo on the multi-race exotics.

  • #5 Icabad Crane (4/1)
  • #3 Eighttofasttocatch (6/1)
  • #8 Colizeo (7/2)

Race 11:  Grade 2 Dixie Stakes (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

The Dixie has long been my nemesis.  Ever since Shakis failed in the 2008 running of the marquee turf race of the weekend, I’ve been unable to cash a single ticket on this race.  I even covered the entire field last year save for one horse, and I’m sure I don’t need to tell you what wound up happening to me.  Thankfully, the racing Gods have given me a small field to work with this year, but I can almost see Admiral Akbar warning me from the start; “It’s a trap!”

What makes this race difficult to decipher is that the attention on the tote board will be focused on last year’s 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, #4 Paddy O’Prado.  The son of El Prado is obviously more at home on grass than on dirt, but he’s also making his first start since last November.  That’s a heckuva time to be on the shelf.  If he shows up even with his B-game he likely beats this field, but he’s also the most vulnerable single folks will be standing on in the Pick 3′s, 4′s, and 6′s all weekend.  So who has a chance to pull the upset?  I think you start with #5 Baryshnikov at 10/1 with Leparoux in the saddle.  This Empire Maker colt has won 5 of his last 6 starts and offers double digit value on the morning line.  How often do you see that?  The ubiquitous Graham Motion barn also has an interesting shooter in #6 Slews Answer – a Ghostzapper gelding who has progressed nicely in 3 lifetime races.

  • #4 Paddy O’ Prado (4/5*)
  • #5 Baryshnikov (10/1)
  • #6 Slews Answer (6/1)

Race 12: Grade 1 Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 Miles)

Is this the year we finally get to bust out of the Triple Crown nightmare we’ve been stuck in for 33 years?  Everything now depends on the wild man himself, KY Derby champion #11 Animal Kingdom.  Folks, I think we’re looking at a special race horse here.  I don’t think this year’s crop is particularly deep or challenging, and certainly he hasn’t scared off the competition – as we are constantly reminded of the full field here in Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes – but just look at that form cycle.  If not for some traffic in the debut and an awkward start at Gulfstream Park, we’d be looking at an undefeated Derby winner.  Ironically, he’s oft-mentioned as a turf horse, or at least that was the knock against him going into the Derby, but so far the grass remains the lone surface he’s not won over.  So much for the smart guys, eh?

The Animal will not arrive until Saturday morning, but if he steps off that van in anything like the form he showed in Kentucky, well, good luck to the rest of ‘em.  The other contenders are not without hope though – as the pace setup for this race should be completely different.  Gone will be the slow 48-and-change fractions set by #5 Shackleford, as new shooters #4 Flashpoint and #8 Dance City will ensure a faster pace this time around.

Ultimately I see this race as being very formful.  I expect #11 Animal Kingdom to be flying down the stretch, coming from a bit closer than he was in the Derby.  I think #9 Mucho Macho Man will actually get first jump on the pace setters and that both Animal and #10 Dialed In will be gunning for that one in the stretch.  Of the new faces in the crowd, I’d anticipate the best run coming from #1 Astrology, who has really made an impression on me this week.   My wife will be rooting for #5 Shackleford like she was in the Derby, but beyond her steadfast support I can’t see that horse improving off the Derby setup.   You might be able to twist my arm and get me to do something with #6 Sway Away as well.

  • #11 Animal Kingdom (2/1*)
  • #10 Dialed In (9/2)
  • #9 Mucho Macho Man (6/1)

Happy Preakness!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico

Derby Trail Heats Up – Premier Pegasus and Uncle Mo Romp

13 03 2011

With less than two months until the 2011 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, the 3-year-old thoroughbred division is starting to take shape as we separate the legitimate contenders from the numerous pretenders.  On Saturday racing fans were treated to solid performances from two serious racehorses, as well as a disappointing performance from a horse thought by many to be among the elite.

Uncle Mo, last seen in November crushing the field of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 4 1/4 lengths, returned to action in what for all intents and purposes amounted to a public workout in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park.  The son of Indian Charlie was making his first start of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher, who opted for the softer 1-turn mile rather than bang heads with stablemate Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Despite being bumped at the start of the race, Uncle Mo wound up winning for fun in 1:36.56, drawing clear by 3 3/4 lengths.  While the champ still clearly has the goods, there may be room for some concern as he’ll have just one additional start (presumably the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 9) before the Derby with which to prepare for the longer distances (and added turn) of the Triple Crown season.

As the evening progressed, another of  Todd Pletcher’s purported contenders, Sam F. Davis winner Brethren, was sent to post assumed to be the class of the field in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  Instead a pair of longshots in Watch Me Go (43/1) and Crimson Knight (86/1) handed the son of Distorted Humor his first lifetime defeat in what has to be considered a disappointing effort.

It wasn’t just that he got beat – he got beat after relatively pedestrian early fractions (:23.73 and :48.20) by horses whose class would not appear to stack up against the heavyweights of the division.  Brethren had soundly defeated Watch Me Go by 5 lengths in the Sam F. Davis stakes on February 12.  Like many, it looks like I may have wasted a spot in my Road to the Roses stable on Brethren.

Brethren - "I Am Disappoint"

As the saying goes, often we find that the best is saved for last – and that was certainly the case this weekend as attention shifted westward to Santa Anita for the Grade 2 San Felipe.  Premier Pegasus, the horse that my good friend Tencent has been heralding as his Derby selection since last Fall, was absolutely brilliant in cruising to a 7 length victory over what appeared on paper to be a very interesting group of horses.  In the process he likely stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of picking up $150k in precious graded stakes earnings.

The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby champion Fusaichi Pegasus also served notice to Uncle Mo and the rest of the Derby contenders that there was a new face in town – and one that would appear to mean serious business.

The victory gives Korean-born trainer Myung Kwon Cho a chance to rise from the ranks of the relatively unknown to celebrity if he can continue to move forward and avoid any setbacks between now and May.  Premier Pegasus may have benefited from a hot pace in the San Felipe (opening splits were :21.75 and :44.58, respectively), but when a horse makes an explosive move like that in the turn and then opens up a veritable can of whoop-ass in the stretch, I think you’d be wise to take notice and give serious respect.

PrePeg, as his fans call him, was 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the late closing Jaycito at the wire, stopping the timer in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe at 1:41.23.   He returned $16.43 for the win, as the betting public let him get away at odds of 7/1 at post time.

The PrePeg/Jaycito Exacta returned $24.30 and if you backed the good looking colt Bench Points on the bottom of the Trifecta you were rewarded with a payout of $201.60.  Pace factor Comma at the Top rounded out a Superfecta that returned $935.10.

Coming up next weekend is the $300k Grade 2 Rebel Derby at Oaklawn Park.  I may not have been posting as frequently this year for numerous reasons, but suffice to say the action this weekend has sparked the fire and I’ve done a bit of housecleaning this weekend as a result – including a new Derby Watch List page with rankings and race replays for the key Kentucky Derby prep races.  I’ve attached a screenshot of my latest rankings below (just click on the table below for an easier to read full sized image).


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Kentucky Derby Trail, Premier Pegasus, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay Downs, Uncle Mo

Ten Memories From Breeders’ Cup 2010

7 11 2010

“We sat and heard in silence. What other expression had we that was not meant for such an awful universe of battle?” – Lt Frank Haskell –  Gettysburg, PA – July 3, 1863

It’s hard to believe that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is already a historical memory.  With so much anticipation and build-up, I’m surprised each year as the races rattle off and the weekend winds down just how quickly the whole affair can happen.  This year, like all others before, was filled with memories; some of them favorable, some of them far more disconcerting.   On the plus side, attendance and betting handle were up from 2009.  On the downside the races didn’t quite end in the story-book fashion many were hoping for.  As we wind down from the weekend that was, I thought we might take a quick look back at 10 memories that will stay with us from the Breeders’ Cup 2010.

  • Jockey Fight 2010:

It’s a shame, but you sort of have to begin here. Things got off to a strange start in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano exchanged blows following the running of the  Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The moment was captured live on ESPN and instantly went viral – becoming the first sustained memory of the championship weekend.  From Castellano’s seemingly stunning left jab to the enraged look in Borel’s eyes as he was held back and then removed from the scene.

The entire ordeal was both bizarre and absurd.   This couldn’t have been the start the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup were hoping for, but there’s a line of thinking that suggests any exposure is good exposure, and if nothing else the novelty of two height-challenged individuals resorting to fisticuffs in the winner’s circle certainly attracted the attention of folks who would otherwise would not have cared.  The real tragedy was the number of times throughout the continuing racing coverage that “jockeyfight” was harped upon.  Additionally, the high drama surrounding the entire affair should’ve given us a clue as to the proper hunch play for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the following day.

  • The Big 10 can’t play defense:

Sadly, horse racing fans have to be acutely aware of this fact, but any who didn’t already know that the teams of the Big 10 have a ways to go as far as being able to actually prevent opposing offenses from scoring at will got a healthy reality check about midway through the racing action on Saturday afternoon.   Just as ESPN was switching it’s coverage from ESPN2  to it’s main channel, fans were greeted with a stunning Overtime battle between Illinois and Michigan.

Yes, those two powerhouses fighting for middle-of-the-pack status within the conference wound up going through 3 OT periods before a winner was decided.  During that time racing fans the world over began to form organized resistance as it appeared we would not be able to see the running of the Juvenile.  Thankfully the heavens parted, Michigan sealed the game, and we wound up getting to see Uncle Mo’s brilliant performance (more on that in a moment) in stunning HD quality…and there was much rejoicing.

  • Rough Sailing breaking down:

Probably the saddest of all memories from the past weekend was the injury suffered by longshot Rough Sailing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The horse fell, dropping Napravnk from the saddle and then had to be taken away in an ambulance. Not long afterwards came word that the horse was euthanized. Ironically, the winning horse in the race, Tam Valour’s Pluck, was very near Rough Sailing when he fell, and jockey Garrett Gomez deserves credit for steering Pluck away from what seemed to be a collision in the making once Napravnik was on the ground.  A scary moment that could’ve turned out even worse if not for some quick thinking and reflexes.   Sadly, as far as Rough Sailing is concerned, there was no silver lining.   RIP.

  • Bet the longshots!

Right out of the gate we were greeted with a glimpse of what was to come when Eldaafer scored in the Marathon and returned $23.20 to win.  The only favorite that won on the first day was Awesome Feather, who still managed to return $10.40 worth of value to her supporters.  By the time the weekend was through we had witnessed More Than Real scoring at $29.20 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dangerous Midge at $19.00 in the Turf, and bank breakers Dakota Phone ($77.40) and Shared Account ($94.00) in the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, respectively.

Shared Account’s victory in particular being memorable as it came over the highly regarded and heavily favored Midday – and may have ultimately led to the decision of Arc winner Workforce being scratched from the BC Turf.  Suffice to say, if you played value horses over the favorites throughout the weekend, chances are you were highly rewarded.   Personally I didn’t catch either of the whoppers, and the victory by Dakota Phone bounced me from the Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

  • Uncle Mo exploding in the stretch to win the Juvenile:

The question everyone wants answered with the yearly running of the Juvenile is whether a 2-year-old exists that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the division. While it’s still a long way to go until the “First Saturday in May”,  many folks will no doubt be looking back to Saturday’s performance from Uncle Mo as an early indication of a potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite.  Mo’ exploded in the stretch when asked by jockey John Velazquez and stopped the clock on the 1 1/16 mile race at 1:42.60, good enough for a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for the son of Indian Charlie.

Only time will tell if Mo is able to continue his form cycle into next season, but it’s interesting to note that the last horse use the race as a stepping stone to a victorious Derby campaign the following season, Street Sense, also won the Juvenile over the main track at Churchill.  Admittedly there may have been a speed bias favoring the rail during Street Sense’s06 Juvenile score, but for Uncle Mo it seemed like a simple case of being the far superior horse in the field.

  • Dakota Phone noses out Morning Line:

The score that essentially crushed my Pick 4 dreams in the final races of the championship weekend, the 37/1 victory by Dakota Phone was undboutedly a key component to a memorable weekend for those lucky enough to have covered him in the exotics.  The son of Zavata got up just in time to nose out the tepid early favorite, aptly named Morning Line, by a nose in the photo finish.

Personally, I had spread 6 horses deep to cover this race on my tickets, and like many folks I was reminded that in contentious Breeders’ Cup races, sometimes going 6 deep just isn’t enough.  I suppose it’s a bit of a handicapping lesson; if you’ve got no real opinion in a race and are covering that many runners, keep in mind that “anything can happen”, and in the case of the Breeders’ Cup, “anything” probably will happen.  Hats off to anyone that used this horse.

  • Unrivaled Belle best of the ladies:

In a race that featured the 3 biggest names of the division other than Zenyatta (Blind Luck, Life At Ten, and Havre De Grace), Unrivalled Belle may have been somewhat under the radar to many folks.  While clearly capable on her best stuff, it was assumed by most that one of the more highly touted runners would be able to reel her in during the stretch run.  Several handicappers did select Belle, however, most notably (in my opinion) the much adored Christina Olivares of TVG.

Wish I would’ve paid that selection more attention, but in truth by the time I caught this on the DVR I was a bit “opinioned out” and essentially not listening to anything more being said.  Big mistake.  The daughter of Unrivaled Song took command as the field entered the turn and then pulled away to a convincing 1 3/4 length score.  Blind Luck showed the heart of a champion but could not make up the ground that separated the two.

  • Life At Ten – the scratch that should’ve been:

As the field headed to post in the 2010 Ladies’ Classic, it was clear that something was wrong with Life at Ten.  A blind man could’ve seen it.  How this horse went to post is beyond me. She was the surest toss of the entire weekend once she was observed in the post parade.  Of course, that was little comfort to those of us who had confidently wagered on her in the multi-race exotics.  Todd Pletcher had himself a pretty good Breeders’ Cup weekend, but Life At Ten’s debacle is likely the memory that will haunt him the most.

Thankfully she appears to be okay and not seriously injured, but had something even more disastrous occurred I don’t think the game would’ve been able to avoid the proverbial backlash.  When folks who have never seen a horse race in their lives are asking questions like “why are they letting that horse run?”  you know things aren’t going well.

  • Goldikova makes it 3 in a row:

One has to wonder if somewhere in the back of her mind Goldikova wasn’t tired of playing second fiddle on the center stage for Breeders’ Cup 2010?   The champion proved she was every bit the super horse that we’ve made her out to be in earning her unprecedented 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup victory in the TVG Mile.  For a while it seemed like she may be in a bad spot, and turning for home I remember thinking “this is going to take everything you have.”  And yet, it didn’t, as the daughter o Anabaa pulled away to a clear 1 3/4 length victory over her primary foe, the Eclipse Award winning Gio Ponti.

For his part, Gio Ponti can now claim that if not for two of the greatest mares the sport has had in recent memory running the races of their lives, it might be he we are fawning over for consecutive Breeders’ Cup victories.  It was Gio, after all, who trailed the great Zenyatta during her 2010 Classic score.  The big question everyone is hoping for a positive answer to is whether Goldikova now tries to make it 4 in a row in 2011?  Considering she’s now won over 10% of the Turf Mile events ever run at the Breeders’ Cup, I’d expect it may still be a possibility.

  • Blame over Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic photo finish

I’m torn on this moment and a bit confused as to what my proper feelings should be.  On the one hand I’ve liked Blame all year and thought he may be the only horse capable of holding off Zenyatta in deep stertch.  In fact, I even went so far as to predict a photo finish between the two in our pre-race handicapping selections.  On the other hand, despite the valiant effort, I’d be kidding if I claimed to not be a bit heart broken.

There was a feeling in the air, even as Zenyatta went to post amidst the roar of the crowd and began her patented “dancing” routine, that things were going to be desperate.  Early on in the race I thought she looked like she was not enjoying herself.  She’s always in the back of the pack but she was so far back I worried that she may wind up being pulled up.  Turning for home it seemed as if once again the great mare was going to find a way to thunder down the center of the track and into the history books.  She would have – if not for an equally game contender in Blame.   Someone must’ve forget to tell Blame that he was supposed to play 2nd fiddle to the great one, and he simply did what he knows to do best in holding off a living legend at the wire for the score.

Deflating for Zenyatta lovers?  Sure.  Indicative that Zenyatta is not the super horse of legend we’ve made her out to be?  Hardly.  In fact, I’d argue that the 2010 Classic was one of Zenyatta’s best performances given how absolutely out of it she seemed as the field entered the final turn.   A mile into the race she was in 11th position.  At the top of the stretch she was already in 3rd and rolling.  She may have lost the head bob, but she gained so much more in terms of respect and appreciation.  We learned that we don’t need perfection – as who amongst us can claim to be perfect in anything – in order to appreciate greatness.


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Categories : Blame, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Selections

5 11 2010

Race 4: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Similar to yesterday’s card, we start out with a race I don’t have a particularly strong opinion about.  Not a single runner in the entire field has a previous start over the Churchill dirt.  We know the turns are tight and the ground has been reportedly more firm than many of the Euro connections would prefer.  This race will be our first indication of how the European runners will fare the rest of the day.  Speaking of which, MASTER OF HOUNDS should be tough here if he has shipped well and will be my top selection.  I also like the looks of MANTOBA with Dettori aboard.  For the domestic runners I gravitated towards the outside horse, PLUCK, for Todd Pletcher even though I hate the post position.  MADMAN DIARIES came close to being my 3rd selection. You can really make a case for just about anyone in this field.  Tricky race to start the day off with.

  • Selections:
    • #5 Master of Hounds (9/2*)
    • #3 Mantoba (5/1)
    • #13 Pluck (6/1)

Race 5: The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint

I’m going to keep things fairly simple in the sprint.  I like the favorite, GIROLAMO quite a bit, but as the morning line odds of 3/1 suggest, he is a bit vulnerable here.  It’s interesting to note that he (along with Gio Ponti who races later in the card) are two examples that buck the myth that suggests horses who have faced Zenyatta don’t go on to achieve much of anything.  This son of A.P. Indy (one of many in the BC) took the G1 Vosburgh last out despite being “steadied” at one point early in the race.  BIG DRAMA is a horse that makes a good deal of sense here as well, but my gut tells me he finds a way to finish 2nd again.  CASH REFUND is probably the fastest of the field, which in theory should help for a sprint.  KINSALE KING figures to offer solid reward relative to his chances due to the recent “darkened form” in the last two efforts.  The horses that I was torn between for 3rd selection were ATTA BOY ROY and WARRIOR’s REWARD on the outside.  Definitely those are not ideal post positions, so despite the fact that I like both horses I had to leave one off.  I think of the two WARRIOR’s REWARD has the better chance to wind up in the winner’s circle, whereas ATTA BOY ROY has a better chance to hit-the-board (if that even makes sense…forgive me folks as I’m running on about 3 hours sleep).

  • Selections:
    • #2 Girolamo (3/1*)
    • #1 Big Drama (7/2)
    • #12 Warrior’s Reward (12/1)

Race 6: The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

This race was extremely difficult for me to narrow down even a top selection – perhaps the most difficult of all 14 championship races this weekend.  In fact, I’m not even going to do an analysis here. My advice is to just play whatever your opinion is and don’t listen to anything anyone else has to say.  If someone twisted my arm I’d say that I expect the pace to be fairly quick here, and that may setup for DUE DATE and CALIFORNIA FLAG to be rolling late.  I know just about everyone has totally given up on the Flag, but not me.  He can still beat these guys,  and 12/1 isn’t half bad on the horse that won this race last year.  Obviously the post position is horrific though and gives me great pause.  I like to use CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE but he seems to have trouble winning in graded stakes.  ROSE CATHERINE was going to be my top play as I feel she doesn’t “need” the lead in this, but I’ve begun to question that selection the more I look over the race.  Guess I’ll have to make SILVER TIMBER the top choice then?  The post isn’t bad and he makes some sense having defeated the aforementioned DUE DATE (not to mention $450k in earnings at the distance).

  • Selections:
    • #5 Silver Timber (4/1)
    • #9 Rose Catherine (6/1)
    • #12  California Flag (12/1)

Race 7 : The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The Juvenile features a showdown between two highly regarded colts, BOYS AT TUSCANOVA and UNCLE MO.  My initial opinion is that UNCLE MO may be the best of the two at the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, but I would advise using each of them in the win position on your exotics.  Looking over the rest of the field, STAY THIRSTY would make some sense to include underneath of the top two. MURJAN and BIONDETTI come into the race sporting perfect records from overseas, while J B’s THUNDER is a perfect 2 for 2 here in the U.S.  J P’s GUSTO hasn’t missed an Exacta since her debut in May.  Lastly you have the improving sons of Kentucky Derby champions Smarty Jones (ROGUE ROMANCE) and Fusaichi Pegasus (RIVETING REASON).  Even the “easy” races are filled with intrigue.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Uncle Mo (7/5*)
    • #2 Boys At Tuscanova (5/2)
    • #6 Stay Thirsty (8/1)

Race 8: The TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf):

While all of the attention is focused this day on the Classic and the undefeated Zenyatta, racing fans the world over are perhaps equally anxious to see GOLDIKOVA get her shot at defeating the boys for an unprecedented 3rd Breeders’ Cup victory (although that unprecedentedness may be fleeting, depending on developments later in the day).  We all know the story; trainer Freddie Head who rode the great Miesque to consecutive Mile victories has the daughter of Anabaa looking very tough to defeat, although it will be interesting to see if she can once again overcome some adversity in the form of post position and familiarity with the local track.  PACO BOY has the most familiarity with the favorite, having been defeated repeatedly at her hands (hooves). GIO PONTI is the x-factor here who probably is better suited for the BC Turf, but gives GOLDIKOVA’s connections something to think about.  PROVISO is another interesting runner who has rattled off 4 consecutive victories.  I haven’t liked what I’ve seen of SIDNEY’S CANDY in the morning workouts to support that horse as an upset contender. I could see including DELEGATOR as an underneath play.  COURT VISION is a horse I’ve always been fond of, but I can’t envision him defeating the likes of Goldi.  Look for history to be made in this race – hopefully not the last time we get to say that for the evening.

  • Selections
    • #10 Goldikova (6/5*)
    • #3 Gio Ponti (4/1)
    • #11 Proviso (12/1)

Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Dirt Mile looks like another great betting race where folks have numerous logical directions they could go.  MORNING LINE was awarded favoritism at 7/2 but I think many of us are thinking this is a play against at those odds given the distance and post position questions for a one-turn mile.  I actually like the other Tiznow colt here, TIZWAY at 6/1.  I thought that was a big win in the Kelso last out over Cool Coal Man, and the 3rd behind Quality Road and Musket Man in the Metropolitan could look flattered by the end of the day depending on how those runners perform in the Classic.  HERE COMES BEN is another logical contender that you don’t want to let knock you out of the exotics.  CROWN OF THORNS was going to be a play against from me before his late scratch.  The x-factor horse I think may show up big here though is VINEYARD HAVEN.  I just wish he drew a better post position because I think he has every right to be there at the wire and 10/1 is attractive value.  Very interesting race.

  • Selections:
    • #2 Tizway (6/1)
    • #5 Here Comes Ben (6/1)
    • #12 Vineyard Haven (10/1)

Race 10: The Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

For the sixth time in history, a winner of the Arc De Triomphe, the world’s richest turf race, will attempt to prevail in the BC Turf within the same year.  The previous competitors are 0 for 5 lifetime, so keep that in mind before accepting low odds on WORKFORCE.  Even more concerning has been the hot topic story this week that the connections feel Churchill’s turf course is “too firm” and does not have enough moisture in the ground to set up the Arc winner for his best run.  This is actually a continuing theme that we’ll have to pay close attention to throughout the weekend to see how the Euros hold up, but moisture in the forecast and the opportunity to have viewed numerous turf races prior to this point will hopefully have clarified the picture.  If you’re looking to beat captain obvious, I thought the other Arc runner, BEHKABAD made quite a bit of sense.  I’ll be using WINCHESTER and AL KHALI on some exotic plays.

  • Selections:
    • #6 Workforce (7/5*)
    • #7 Behkabad (9/5)
    • #5 Al Khali (10/1)

Race 11: The Breeders’ Cup Classic

And so it all comes down to this. One race, two minutes, and a date with destiny.  Obviously my heart, like that of every racing fan on Earth, will be beating rapidly in the hopes that Zenyatta will be able to unleash her trademark gigantic run down the center of the track and then gallop off into history as the greatest race horse that many of us younger fans have ever had the pleasure of seeing with our own eyes.  If she loses, well, unfortunately such circumstances tend to bring out the worst in human nature – but no mater what anyone says or types her legacy was sealed when she prevailed at Santa Anita last year.  Nothing can ever take away that accomplishment, and I fully expect her to be right there at the wire on Saturday.  The horse with the best chance of knocking down the champ has got to be BLAME.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a photo finish between them. LOOKIN AT LUCKY would make a great deal of sense to me here if he had not drawn such a crappy post position – but Baffert does seem quietly confident lately.  QUALITY ROAD and MUSKET MAN have every right to factor into the equation, and of course you’ve got a runner like HAYNESFIELD who was able to get loose on the lead and defeat BLAME last out.  I like BLAME and ZENYATTA hitting the wire together with MUSKET MAN edging out other rivals for 3rd.   If this is indeed the last time “slow cheetah” will grace us with her presence, here’s hoping she goes out as a winner.  This one’s going to be tough though, folks.  It may take her absolute best – but rest assured that her absolute best is pretty darned good.

  • Selections:
    • #8 Zenyatta (8/5*)
    • #5 Blame (9/2)
    • #7 Musket Man (20/1)

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Categories : Handicapping Selections

Ladies’ Classic – Breeders’ Cup Friday Selections

4 11 2010
What’s this?  A new post from The Aspiring Horseplayer on Breeders’ Cup Eve?  Surely your eyes deceive you!

Clearly the rumors that I had retired to pursue my dream of chasing scantily clad Sherpa women through a series of increasingly complex obstacle courses in front of live studio audiences was a bit premature.  Yes, like an older champion thoroughbred returning from an extended layoff and hoping to recapture lost glory, the Prodigal Son hath returned to the racing blogosphere.  At least temporarily.

It’s been a long time, my friends (too long) – since June to be exact, and admittedly my absence deserves a brief explanation.  As much as I’ve wanted to continue writing regularly about the sport we love, the facts of life simply caught up with me (though thankfully I can still outrun Mindy Cohn).  Working full time, commuting long distances, and raising two young boys just didn’t leave anywhere near enough time to collect my thoughts and organize them into something worth posting.  Thankfully the proverbial torch has been passed to some more than capable writers/bloggers, some of whom I’m lucky enough to count among friends.

This weekend, however, is simply TOO BIG to ignore.  Zenyatta, my beloved “slow cheetah” aiming for a repeat in the Classic and a fitting wrap to her perfect career?  Goldikova trying to make it 3 in a row against the boys?  An Arc winner still in the mix (at least as of this writing) for the Turf?  Saying nothing would be akin to being bound and gagged and left in some swamp conditioned pit of despair.  It’s Breeders’ Cup time – that moment of the year where even my love of collegiate football cannot keep me from obsessing over the happenings at the race track.  I won’t be in actual attendance this year – the days of such distinguished honors having seemingly passed, but I will be here to cover both racing days in full – undoubtedly to the spattering of a handful of golf claps.

Let’s kick things off by looking over the Friday Breeders’ Cup races from Churchill Downs:

Race 5: The Breeders’ Cup Marathon (1 3/4 Miles)

Well, the skinny is that I’m 0 for 2 in “marathon’ events.  Not exactly the kind of grand return to the handicapping scene I was hoping for.  The way I see this race, I’ve never been a GIANT OAK fan and I’d really only take the tepid morning line favorite, AWESOME GEM, if the conditions were wet, so I’m going to shake things up and try something new.  It’s interesting to note that the Euros have done well in this race the last two years, so perhaps I roll the dice with one of them?  Obviously they aren’t running over synthetics this year, so it’s a bit of a risky proposition, but what the hey? Two contenders fit the description, BRIGHT HORIZON and PRECISION BREAK, with the better odds available on the latter.

  • Selections:
    • #9 Bright Horizon (10/1)
    • #11 Precision Break (15/1)
    • #12 A.U. Miner (9/2)

Race 6: The Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 Mile)

Usually the Juvenile Fillies Turf would be a race I’d throw darts at a wall and hope for the best.  This year feels different though, thanks in large part to the presence of WINTER MEMORIES.  The daughter of El Prado has looked very impressive finding the winner’s circle in each of her 2 starts.  She seems to have a decent stretch burst when she puts in her run, and I like the versatility she’s shown in those two starts over firm and yielding turf courses.  She’s capable of taking another step forward in her 3rd career start.  KATHMANBLU is another late running type that has prevailed at the lower stakes level.  A victory from the daughter of Bluegrass Cat would reward trainer Ken McPeek with his first Breeders’ Cup victory and is not out of the question at all here at 10/1.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Winter Memories (2/1*)
    • #4 Kathmanblu (10/1)
    • #13 Together (5/1)

Race 7: The Filly & Mare Sprint (7 Furlongs)

This could be the most wide open race on the card.  RIGHTLY SO drew a horrible post position in the 13 hole, which means we’ve got the warning flag out right away on a vulnerable 3/1 favorite.  Of course her front running style could render that less of a factor if she found her way out in front and was able to come over and save ground while relaxing a bit.  The presence of RINTERVAL in the 10 hole means that she may have to run a bit harder than her connections would like early on, and longshot MOONTUNE MISSY could also add to the pace equation.  Call me crazy but I think you roll the dice here. In my heart I’d like to select INFORMED DECISION, since she’s been so good to me in the past, but I have to side elsewhere this year.  I’m going to take a stab with GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL, who I thought made a good impression during Monday’s episode of “The Works”.  She’s not consistent, but her recent workouts suggest to me she may be primed for her best, and at 15/1 I don’t need much convincing.  SECRET GYPSY also makes a bit of sense here at 12/1 value.  I have a feeling folks are all over the board in this race so if you’ve got an opinion this looks like a good place to take a stab at a nice value play.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Gabby’s Golden Gal (15/1)
    • #3 Secret Gypsy (12/1)
    • #5 Evening Jewel (15/1)

Race 8: The Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of 13 horses awaits the call to post for the 2010 Juvenile Fillies.  Admittedly I’m a bit torn here between A Z WARRIOR and AWESOME FEATHER.  Ultimately I’ll assume that A Z WARRIOR may be the superior horse, although what this daughter of Bernardini has lacked in terms of stringing together consecutive victories thus far in her young career is easily contrasted by the consistency of her primary foe.  AWESOME FEATHERS has been nothing short of her name in earning a perfect 5-for-5 mark.  Needless to say I’d suggest covering both on the exotics.  TELL A KELLY seems to be a classy enough daughter of Tapit. The surface switch and post position draw would be the obvious concerns, but the presence of local hero Calvin Borel will ensure the horse takes some action at the window.  R HEAT LIGHTNING drew a much more favorable post and is an obvious horse to consider in the exotics.

  • Selections:
    • #8 A Z Warrior (7/2*)
    • #4 Awesome Feather (6/1)
    • #2 Theyskens’ Theory (10/1)

Race 9: The Filly & Mare Turf (1 3/8 Miles)

We’ve got 11 horses to consider in the premier ladies’ turf event of the day, but I see this boiling down to a three horse race.  In one corner you have MIDDAY who appears a very strong favorite at 6/5.  Sarafina, who ran third to her in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, wound up finishing 3rd in the Arc, if that’s any indication.  The daughter of Oasis Dream has rattled off 3 consecutive victories and 4 of her last 5 races.  The turf course may be a bit firmer at Churchill than the Europeans are accustomed to, but if she’s shipped well she looks mighty dangerous.  The primary contender generating the most buzz in the racing world would have to be RED DESIRE, the Japanese-bred filly who couldn’t quite get it done over a yielding turf course at Belmont in her North American debut.  If you’ve watched along with TVG’s “The Works”, you’ve no doubt heard she’s reportedly training well.  Major player in this race, although admittedly I’d have to use her regardless given my fondness for ladies from that area of the world.  The x-factor here may be PLUMANIA, who was less than a length behind MIDDAY (and ahead of the aforementioned Sarafina) in the Vermeille.  Considering she was that close at Longchamp, 8/1 seems like a gift.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Midday (6/5*)
    • #10 Red Desire (8/1)
    • #1 Plumania (8/1)


Race 10: The Ladies’ Classic (1 1/8 Miles)

With 11 horses entered in the 2010 edition of the Ladies’ Classic, most of the attention will be focused on the big name contenders BLIND LUCK, HAVRE DE GRACE, and LIFE AT TEN.  Of the big 3 I prefer LIFE AT TEN at a decent price of 7/2.  The daughter of Malibu Moon has prevailed in 7 of her last 8 races, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park on October 8.  The betting public will likely follow the morning line and favor BLIND LUCK, who has every right to win this race.  I simply feel she’s too vulnerable to accept 9/5 in this race.  HAVRE DE GRACE defeated BLIND LUCK last out yet finds her odds more than double those of her foe at 4/1 on the line.  Of the other runners, Unrivalled Belle did defeat Rachel Alexandra back in April, but has had a series of decent-if-unspectacular 2nd place finishes in New York ever since.  If you’re looking for a price play, consider using MALIBU PRAYER at 8/1 in the exotics.  She may drift upwards on the tote board if the bigger named horses take heavy play and could offer attractive risk/reward potential.  I’m thinking LIFE AT TEN will be too much for her foes in the stretch. I expect the other big names will vie for minor awards, but keep an eye on MALIBU PRAYER at a price.

  • Selections:
    • #1 Life At Ten (7/2)
    • #11 Havre De Grace (4/1)
    • #10 Blind Luck (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone and remember to keep that bank roll padded for Saturday!


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