THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

The Sunday racing action at Santa Anita features 3 graded stakes events, including the Grade 2 Santa Ynez and El Encino, and the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel.   The feature race of the day is the Grade 2 Santa Ynez for $150,000 featuring the top 3 year old filly in the country, Indian Blessing.  

Indian Blessing wired the field in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies back in October at Monmouth Park in New Jersey.  So far her career is spotless, with a maiden victory at Saratoga in August, a victory in the Grade 1 Frisette Stakes at Belmont, and her triumph in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies.   She’s a shoe in for top 2 year old filly of 2007 when the official voting takes place later this month.   Attached below is the race replay of her impressive triumph in the Breeder’s Cup.

Indian Blessing should be the play in the Santa Ynez, but you won’t get any kind of price on her.   There are two horses that I think have a chance of turning the tables on her if you are looking for upset picks or trying to fill out the exacta.   Izarra has run well at the Grade 1 level before running into a troubled trip in the Juvenile Fillies.  It’s not hard to forgive that considering the sloppy conditions that day.  We’re probably lucky more horses didn’t come back with problems.   Joe Talamo takes the reins fresh off his first wins of the meet, and just a few weeks away from likely being crowned as the 2007 Apprentice Jockey of the Year.   Golden Doc A is another that I think could find herself in a good place.  She’s a full sister to Unusual Suspect, who is a horse I really like.   Everyone else should be running for place and show here, but it’s hard to bet a 1/2 morning line chalk. 

The Santa Ysabel is the 5th race of the day going 1 1/16 miles for 3 year old fillies.   There were three horses I liked in this one.  #3 Turn Away enters as the odds on 1/1 favorite, dropping in from a rough trip that resulted in a 3rd place finish her last time out in the Golden Road after being sent off as the post time favorite.   If she gets a cleaner trip today it’s not hard to imagine her running a much better race.   Kazamira looks interesting to me at 3/1 as well.  She’s a daughter of Dynaformer and was a $530,000 purchase at Keeneland back in September 2006. Trainer John Shirreffs excels sending runners out after a layoff, but is today’s jump from the maiden special weight level to the Grade 3 Stakes level a bit more than she can chew?  Note that the runner up and 4th place finishers from her last race came back to win their next at Hollywood.  I think this one is eligible to move forward a bit today despite the stiffer competition.  Shirreffs seems to be a pretty level headed guy so if he has confidence here  that means something to me.   #5 Final Fling should be charging late, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace to run at when reviewing this race on paper.  Still, you’ve got to like the guts she’s shown in the stretch at 8/1, at least for the bottom of the exacta and trifecta tickets if not more. 

 The 9th race is the 44th running of the Grade 2 El Encino Stakes for 4 year old fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles.   Once again I think there are 3 horses with a legitimate chance to prevail here.  #2 Zenyatta is the horse I’m anxious to see as she looked like a future Stakes winner in her victory in the Allowance level on December 15th.  Yet another John Sherriffs runner as the trainer looks primed to have a huge day at Santa Anita on Sunday.  #5 Romance is Diane is the second choice in the morning line at 5/2.  She’s wired the field in back to back wins, including a victory in the Grade 2 Bayakoa on December 1st at Hollywood Park.  Lastly, I thought that #6 Tough Tiz’s Sis looks like one that will be parked behind the leader heading into the final turn and could threaten to run a big one if all breaks well.   She’ll need her best effort to beat the top two, but it’s not out of the question.  The 7/2 odds on the morning line may represent the best hope at value we have for this race. 

Considering the condition of the Santa Anita track lately, I’ve decided to stay away from the rest of the card and just use the selections above to make a few choice plays while I watch the NFL playoff games tomorrow.  There are a couple of other horses that I think either stand a good chance to win or are deserving of  a play, including:

 - Alonzo, full brother to Tiago making his 2nd start in the 8th race of the day,  a maiden special weight for $50k going 1 1/16 miles over the main track.  This is the same type of move Sherriffs made with Tiago last year, who responded with a strong second place finish when stretched out to two turns for the first time.  I expect Alonzo will move forward today and at 15/1 on the morning line will certainly be toying with jumping into the betting fray.  There are some other dangerous horses in the field though that look ready to run decent races, so don’t focus too much on this one yet.   Still, know that Ron Correll has this one on his Kentucky Derby Trail watch list.  I doubt we’ll get many 15/1 shots at such horses throughout the year.  It must be said though that Tiago took some time to round out into form as he bloomed late in the spring of 2007 in the Santa Anita Derby…..but these are just maiden special weights here, so if he’s anything like his brother or half brother Giacomo (winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby), he should be able to run a good one today.

- Costume looks like the horse to beat in the 10th race on the card, an N1X Allowance race going 1 mile over the turf course.   She’ll have to overcome the outside post position, but I didn’t see anything to really scare me off of her here dropping in from Grade 2 and Grade 1 Stakes tries in her last two efforts.  In my opinion 3/1 is a generous morning line price for her in this event. 

Hope you enjoy your Sunday.  I’ll be back with more coverage next weekend or as time permits during the work week.