It’s been a long week, and thankfully the weekend has arrived! With all of the uncertainty surrounding the current situation at Santa Anita, I thought it best to stick with the local track at Laurel for Saturday’s selections. We’ve got 10 races on the card, highlighted by the What a Summer stakes for $80,000.
Race 1
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#2 Western Missile (5/1)
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#5 Ballen Isle (9/5)
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#1 Anxious (8/5*)
The first race is an open $10k claimer going 7 furlongs over the dirt track. There seems to be a decent amount of pace on the card, and even though the surface has seemed to favor inside speed horses (hat tip to Phil J), I thought the horses coming off the pace had the best chance here. #2 Western Missile could sit a nice stalking trip today behind the pace. He draws a favorable post position on the rail and is 3 for 4 lifetime at Laurel Park. Obviously that last race was troublesome for him, but it’s nice to see him sent back right away here. #5 Ballen Isle is very interesting. The only winner last time out in the entire field ships in for the Capuano barn and is flattered by Jeremy Rose taking the reins. A nice workout on 12/28 shows he’s in fine condition. His last 3 efforts at this distance have looked very good for this field. #1 Anxious is a worthy favorite at 8/5 largely because he’s shown some guts in the stretch. Scott Lake drops him from $14k into this event and he should find himself on the lead, but I expect him to get some pressure up front.
Race 2
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#5 Seattle Vixen (8/1)
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#4 Four Karatz (6/1)
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#1 Pretty One (8/5*)
The second race of the day is a $25,000 N2L claimer for fillies and mares going 7 furlongs over the main track. This is a pretty week field here to be honest. I went with #5 Seattle Vixen as an interesting CT shipper. Two of her best races have come at this distance and she finds some light competition here today. #1 Pretty One draws the inside post with Napravnik aboard. She won 2 races back at the maiden level by 6 lengths, then struggled mightily against allowance N1x types last out. #4 Four Karatshas the most impressive Beyer figures, but seems to come from well off the pace, which makes her a better candidate underneath on the exacta and trifecta tickets. Still, there isn’t much in this field so it’s possible she could run them down, but will there be enough pace?
Race 3
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#1 Charles Victory (10/1)
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#4 Tribal Casino (5/1)
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#8 Our Lally (2/1*)
The third race is a $16k maiden claimer for 3 year old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. #1 Charles Victory has a chance to flash early speed from the inside post position. She cuts back from 1 mile to 5 1/2 furlongs today and trainer Donald Krone has been live with his two previous runners going from route to sprint to the tune of a $22.60 ROI, which suggests he’s done this before at similar odds. Also note that she’s dropping from the $40k level after also running in the special weight level. Look out – long shot upset specialist here! #4 Tribal Casino takes the biggest class drop of the field from special weight $28k level. She flashed speed last time out before fading. Maybe she needed one? Camacho has a second chance to get to know her here and cuts back a half furlong in the process. At least we can hope for lightning in a bottle. #8 Our Lally has been running very close, with numerous second place finishes, something the rest of the field cannot boast. She drops from $25k to $16k today and perhaps that can help boost her in the stretch? She’s had a habit of fading when it counts. She’s got sufficient form on paper but those finishes make feel she’ll run for place or show again today.
Race 4
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#3 La Bamba (4/1)
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#4 Two Columbus (8/5*)
- #2 You Asked (9/5)
The fourth race is a $32k optional claimer N3x for fillies going 7 furlongs over the main track. #3 La Bamba is a huge threat to wire the field. She rattled off 5 straight wins before going wide and fading last time out. She should rocket for the front and be tough to bring to down. #4 Two Columbus drops in from the allowance ranks where she exits back to back winning efforts. She could use some pace assistance up front, which is not a foregone conclusion here, but could find herself parked in nice position turning for home. #2 You Asked is an interesting Aqueduct shipper that is tough to ignore. She takes the biggest class drop of the field from $75k to $32k. She’s a serious threat to win, but perhaps 7 furlongs is not her best distance?
Race 5
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#1 Gia Nina (2/1*)
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#5 Bo Waters (5/1)
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#13 Liily O’ Lake (8/1)
The fifth race is a $25k maiden claimer for fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. There’s not a whole lot to like in this race. I think everyone will wind up with #1 Gia Nina since she flashed speed last time out and cuts back a half furlong in distance today. Assimakopoulous is a deadly 57% off the claim so far this year. Those are probably the strongest angles of the race. #5 Bo Waters looks playable considering the field. There are some useful workouts you can support in the program that suggest some speed. #3 Liily O’ Lake had a nice workout on 12/19. There’s really not much else to bank on in here in my opinion.
Race 6
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#4 Jazz Seeker (7/2)
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#7 Max’s Bid (6/1)
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#6 High Act (2/1*)
The sixth race is a 7 furlong $30k allowance N2L race going 7 furlongs over the main track. #7 Max’s Bid would rate as the top choice here if I were sold that he’ll actually run. He just raced on Wednesday 1/9/08, winning by six lengths. If he somehow goes to post I’ll back him, but I suspect he’ll be scratched. #4 Jazz Seeker has improved in every attempt, albeit at the maiden level. Still, he seems to have the kind of toughness in the stretch that can defeat lesser horses. I like the looks of this one. #6 High Act may need a race after the recent layoff. That being said, he’ll probably be kissing the ground he’s so happy to return to dirt after horrible trips on the synthetic and turf surfaces. Do note that he broke his maiden in December of 2006 going 7 furlongs. Interesting.
Race 7
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#4 Oorah (8/1)
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#9 Gammy’s a Winner (3/1*)
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#6 Jimmy’s Pride (4/1)
The seventh race is an N1X allowance route for $30k going 1 mile over the main track. #4 Oorah gets C. Gibbs back aboard and could strike the front early. Note that he ran second in the Maryland Mile Handicap back on 11/24. #9 Gammy’s a Winner should get a nice stalking trip sitting 3rd or 4th as they turn for home. Jeremy Rose gets the mount hitting at an absurd 42% clip at the moment. #6 Jimmy’s Pride could also battle for the early lead here and would be tough to bring down if he can get loose.
Race 8
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#3 Wings of a Dove (5/1)
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#1 Miss Emeritus/ #1A Joyful (8/5*)
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#2 Hold/ #2x Evonne (4/1)
The 8th race is a $28k maiden special weight for 3 year old fillies going 7 furlongs over the main track. #3 Wings of a Dove looks extremely dangerous as a first time starter here. The workouts at Fair Hill are extremely sharp compared to what we can evaluate of her competition. Since she represents value at 5/1, I’d recommend siding with her. Don’t dismiss the 1/1A combo lightly or forget to include on exotics. #1 Miss Emeritus in particular looks interesting considering she was a $250k purchase in May of 2007. The entry mate #1A Joyful looks playable as well. #2 Hold and #2A Evonne are two equally competitive looking Richard Small horses that should be running for place and show.
Race 9
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#4 Silmaril (2/1)
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#3 Your Flame in Me (9/5*)
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#5 Baby Bird (3/1)
The 9th race is the What a Summer stakes for $80,000 going 6 furlongs over the main track. #4 Silmaril is a wily veteran who lost last time out to repeat winner For Kisses. She excels at Laurel and this distance and picks up Jeremy Rose for the main event. #3 Your Flame in Me is a serious threat to wire the field. The Aqueduct shipper just missed at a $77,000 stakes on 12/17 by a nose. Could get loose and be hard to catch up front. #3 Baby Bird has proven she can win off a rest, and trainer Richard Dutrow is adept at that angle. She’s shown she can fly as evidenced by the two 100+ Beyer speed figures. Could be ready to roll today.
Race 10
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#1A Johnny Z (5/2)
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#1 Buddha’s Song (5/2)
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#8 Lowe’s Island (2/1*)
We wind up the day on the 10th race, an open claimer for $10k going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track. #1A Johnny Z has won back to back efforts at the $5k level and looks like the one to beat for the Scott Lake barn. Lake also sends out #1 Buddha’s Song who drops in from the $18k claiming level. #9 Lowe’s Islandis the favorite at 2/1 but came up as my third choice. Gibbs takes the reins as he ships in from CharlesTown after “finishing well” per the comment line as the favorite last out.
Happy Saturday everyone and here’s hoping you have success at the track today. As always, be sure to check for late scratches/changes.
Glad to see you back in action!
The track played to speed on Wed and Thurs, with 4 wire to wire winners Wed. and 5 more on Thursday. However, a bit cooler temps and some moisture in the air changed things around for Friday when no winners went wire to wire and we had a $22.40 horse come from last as well as a $46.60 horse storm home from last. And some folks will still proclaim that race tracks don’t have biases.
Onto todays card: Pretty decent betting card with decent horses and some nice size fields. Couple tough races mixed with a few that look chalky.
Race 1 – #1, #1A, #4, #5
One of the Lakes is most likely going to scratch, but I think either one is live in here. Seems we see this race a bit different. I saw this race as being pretty paceless. #2 Western Missile has some route speed, but he is stalking type that doesn’t need the lead. #3 Flash Can Dance is another who does his best running on the lead going a route of ground, in the past this horse was unrateable however he seems to have developed a rating gear in his last few efforts. #1A Timely Bid is an off the pace type as is # 5 Ballen Isle.
That being said, I like the #4 Very Very Sneaky, #1 Anxious, #1A Timely Bid, #5 Ballen Isle. Rig/Panell love the engine, so I think you will see Very Very Sneaky sending and hoping to catch this field sleeping. His chances only get better if #1 Anxious is the Lake horse who scratches. Anxious can be up close and I project a nice pace pressing trip right off of #4 in here, he ran against the shape of the race in his latest. A race in which Sounds Impossible exited to win impressively for the $7500 claim price earlier this week. The #1A fits here also if he goes, I felt he was wrongly DQ’d in his last when he bothered #2 Western Missile, he was going by and Western Missile was finished. #5 Ballen Isle goes out first time for D. Capuano with J. Rose at the controls. Cap/Rose have teamed up for 3 wins in the last 9 days together. One reservation I do have is that Capuano sent out a horse on Thurs. at Lrl for the $10k claim price named Ballerina’s Halo who was coming off a win at Woodbine for $10k just as this horse is. Ballerina’s Halo ran last as the favorite or 2nd choice in that race. She was transfered from the same trainer as this horse by the same owner. Two good notes, both horses worked, presumably in company on Dec. 28 at Bowie and todays starter outworked Thurs. dud by almost two seconds, both going handily and Thurs. starter had C. Gibbs up who Capuano hasn’t had a winner with in the last 30 days while him and Rose have won 3 races in the past 9 days.
Race 2 – #1, #3, #6
We differ mightily here also! If the #4 or #5 win this race I’ll tape myself eating a live goldfish and put it up on Youtube for all to view.
#1 Pretty One goes out for the hot Ferris barn and gets one of the barns go to riders in Napravnik. Toss her last, she was overmatched ( 42-1 ) and saddled with a less than ideal post. Go to back to her maiden breaker and that alone gives her a good shot in here, dig a bit deeper and she looks pretty tough … to me. The horse she beat, Perfect Marriage came back to run 2nd to ( against the grain of the track no less ) to a horse named Big Patti. Big Patti then came out of that race to win a FAlwN1x at Lrl late last week. #3 Skeenes Hill goes out for Layne Giliforte who has a solid win % and who has also sent out some live runners here at Lrl and over at Philly in recent weeks. Runner won her debut beating 10 others which is never easy and then followed it up with a poor effort for $40k in her next, albeit with what looks to be a troubled trip. Never raced over a dirt track but her pedigree doesn’t say she’s strictly turf. I’d take this type of runner, lightly raced with a decent pedigree ( and this one is more than decent, Mt. Livermore out of a Red Ransom mare ) and only two starts ( the #2 is 1 win for 30 starts with 12 2nds/3rds ) than the others in here who lack any ability. My third choice in here was #6 for lack of other options really, but she has some speed and may make the lead if Napravnik is intent on stalking from the rail. Speed is always dangerous in the N2Lers were horses have shown a chronic inability to win, it sometimes wins by default.
As for why I don’t like the #4 or #5 … the #4 has run 5 races over a dirt track and she has beaten exactly ONE horse to the wire. She has started against 35 horses on the dirt and only managed to beat one home. On top of that, she has only one other angle going for her, that is jockey Gibbs. No drop in class, no 2nd or 3rd off a lay off, her trainer stinks etc etc … Due to conformation, shape/size of the horses feet, and breeding turf form and dirt form most of the time differ greatly. Not sure who is going to finish infront of the other here, but it should be a real battle between the #4 and #5 … the #5 has 7 starts over the Laurel dirt course and she has beaten a grand total of 4 horses to the wire. She has faced 49 horses and beaten only 4 home on this course. She doesn’t even get a decent jockey, she’s already been in for cheaper and got belted and her trainer stinks too. The form of her last race is questionable. Atleast she has some speed. Now watch one of them jump up and win
Race 3 – #4, #6, #8
The slightest touch of class sometimes can win these cheap maiden claimers for young horses which makes this race tough because so many are dropping in class to some extent or another. #8 Our Lally is the captain obvious horse here because she is the only one who has consistently run decent, doesn’t stop on a dime and runs the best Beyers. No great shakes there. #6 Zoe T comes out of the same race as #8 and ran a respectable 5th first out. 2nd time out improvement can be huge sometimes and it is an angle I love that consistently produces prices. The 1st and 2nd place finishers in their last had run 2nd for 25k and 3rd for 40k respectively in their most recent races, so that race may have a touch of hidden class which only makes these two look even better in here. #4 Tribal Casino takes the biggest class drop in racing from MSW to MDN Clm and showed speed to boot, would be no shock to see her lead gate to wire especially with the front end loving Camacho in the saddle.
Couple trainer tid bits … the trainer of #1 Charles’ Victory is 3 for 3 ( 100% ) with this move in the past 5 years ( Route to Sprint , 31 to 60 days off, and dirt surface ) for a $16.xx ROI. I looked at this one long and hard as a long shot but the horses he made this move with had prior proven form. I also always look at firsters in these cheap, bad races and #2 Ballado Py fit the bill, however his trainer Ivan Reis has sent out 3 winners in the last 2 years at Laurel and G. Garcia has been aboard all 3, he is absent today which led me to elminate this guy.
Race 4 – #1, #2, #4
Nice race with atleast one nice runner. My jury is still out on #2 You Asked when she isn’t running over the Gulfstream Park strip she seems to adore.
Didn’t really need three selections here. I think it is a two horse race between the aforementioned #2 You Asked and #4 Two Columbus who has been ultra impressive since C. Grove took over her training. Jeremy Rose rides this barns star horse, Lexi Star, and gets the call today on the barns co-star horse Silmaril. Infact, he seems to get all the calls on this stakes and nice allowance horses that this barn sends out. Him in the saddle and another bullet in the work tab tells me this one is rolling today. This horse has been more impressive to the eye than she is on paper. #2 You Asked is probably the “class” of the field, hitting the board in a G2 and G3 stake. However, if you put her finger over her Gulfstream efforts she isn’t nearly as impressive. That being said, she ran against the shape of the race in her last ( 1st and 3rd place finishers were 1/2 at the 1/2m call, no one else made up ground ) and looks to be easily 2nd best in here. #1 Debbie’s Diamond rounds out my selections, looks to be improving and draws the rail. The form of her last race is a bit suspect but I still think she is 3rd best ( maybe 2nd ) in here. Was no match for #4 when they met two back and that 1L margin of victory is very misleading, it could have been as many as 5 or 6.
Race 5 – #1, #5, #6
Bad race … the other race had a bunch of class droppers and this race has no real “class” to judge. #1 Gia Nina goes first off the claim for a trainer with a long name that begins with A. Trainer A shows a 57% success rate off the claim and goes to top rider who also happens to get this barns live horses in Pino. Inside draw and speed to take advantage of it makes her look tough. #6 Elensita D makes her 3rd start and is improving with each effort, 3rd off the lay off or in this case 3rd start is a lot of the times a horses best effort and I’m almost positive that will be the case here, has some speed in a field full of firsters for poor first out trainers. #5 Bo Waters is one of the many firsters in here, but he rates an edge of off a decent pattern of works that hint at some speed. Good barn goes to aggressive rider for first go of it.
Can’t say I’d be shocked if any of the 8 crossed the wire first.
Race 6 – #2, #4, #6
I’m going to assume #7 is scratched here. #6 High Act will enjoy getting back to conventional dirt here ( as you mentioned ). His dirt efforts at Gulfstream tower over these. In those N1x’s at Gulfstream he faced Chelokee, a stakes winner ( graded I believe ) from the Michael Matz barn. For You Reppo, mentioned on the Triple Crown Scene a bit after his efforts down there. Sightseeing, graded stakes performer that was the “wise guy” horse in Street Sense’s Travers Stakes along with Hals My Hope ( Stakes winner I think ) and Silver Express who was well meant and running well at the time. Those company lines to me make this one a stand out, obviously those races were almost a year ago, but Nixon/Pino teamed up to win a race last week with a horse coming off a layoff, removing blinkers and had the identical work pattern this one does. #2 Jazz Seeker fits here, though what you see as “toughness” in the stretch I feel is a weakness, any horse that runs 2nd 5 times versus 1 win is a poor bet. Especially when so many of those 2nds are by close margins, it leads my to believe he doesn’t really “want” to win and lacks that killer instinct he’ll need when another horse looks him in the eye. #4 Untamed Hero faced a good one in Casey’s Music ( #2 also faced him ) and another good one in well meant Pop Rocket ( Nixon/Pino ) and hasn’t been disgraced. Another one of quite a few in here that likes to settle for 2nd.
Race 7 – #3, #7, #10
Tough race. Wide open and should make for a good betting race. I see a lot of pace in this one. I think the #1, #4, #5, #6 and #9 are all going to want to be up close or on the pace. The #4 has 6 wins and everyone has been when he made the lead by the 1st call. The #9 has 4 wins and everyone has been when he made the lead by the 1st call. The #6 has 5 wins, 4 of which were wire to wire and the other he was only 1/2 length back at the 1st call while dueling inside and the #1 has 1 win and it was wire to wire.
So, my selections are #3, Kiyoshi who comes out of a common race with a few of these and he by far got the worse of the trips from a bad post. He was hung 3 wide very step of the way and should benefit from the inside draw and that last effort which he may of needed. Rooteen Hero exited this race to win on Friday. You get natural fitness improvement and trip improvement which should have him in the hunt. #7 Dude Again gets Pino and makes his 3rd start off the break and has atleast shown he can win by passing horses. Comes out of the same race as #3 and might trip out nicely. #10 Jedoum draws a poor post but with all the speed he should have no trouble getting a decent spot and making his run. The winner of his last returned to step up and win at the 35k level and the trip/race shape should help him turn the tables on his rival who beat him two back, Gammys A Winner. He has shown a propensity to finish 2nd.
Will finish the card tomorrow … its getting late.
I was roaring with laughter about the “trainer with a long name that starts with A” comment. I seriously mistyped that guys name about 15 times last night while handicapping!
#7 Max’s Bid has to be a scratch. What confounds me is that the comment in the DRF is “razor sharp now” – I”m reading that and thinking “what???” how about “tired” from racing 3 days ago. Oh well.
Looks like another day I’ll be rooting your picks home! I really like your pick of #4 Very Very Sneaky in race 1. I wavered back and forth with that one and definitely think there’s a good chance there.
Race 8 – #1A, #2X, #3
If the #1A or #2X scratch I don’t want their stablemate, instead I would include #5 Wings of Dove. #1A is by a good first out sire in Distorted Humor. Work pattern matches that of a firster that ran well yesterday and Rose is up. Some reservations here since the sires stud fee is 300k and this one sold for only 53k at auction, but she is the lesser of a few evils in here. #2X is by another good first out sire in Include, has some bullets on the tab and gets Napravnik. #3 Diva Maria is sent out by Michael Trombetta who is 32% 2nd time out. This horse was bet down to 3rd choice in her debut, a field that included a live firster from the Pletcher barn ( winner ) and a live firster from the Motion barn ( 2nd ). More often than not, these Trombetta horses that go 2nd time out improve a bunch, especially when they took money in their debut.
Not sure if I play the pick 4 if I could leave out some the #5 or #7 completely. The Motion horses, while they are working as well as their stablemate that ran yesterday did, that horse debuted going two turns and showed no speed. These two aren’t working nearly as well as the two most recent “live” firsters Motion has sent out sprintng. So def. mixed signals from both sets of firsters. The #5 Wings of a Dove has some real nice works but all of this trainers horses seem to work swiftly and don’t do much on the track.
Race 8 – #3, #4, #5
#3 Your Flamin Me looks tough in this field and also looks to be at her best going this far. She will go to the front and try to improve her position. #4 Silmaril is the class of the field and will try to run everyone down late. Bullet work and Rose takes the call, she seems as if she is losing a step or two so I wouldn’t settle for any of the prices she was in her last two. #5 Baby Bird has run some monsters, but also runs some real duds. She is cross entered in todays Affectionately at Aqueduct. Rose has ridden most of Dutrows live ones at the meet but he ends up elsewhere.
Two long shot plays that I will include in my pick 3/4s. #2 All Giving and #7 Andrea’s Pic. All Giving is a 4 year old who has a license to improve on her form from last year. Should get a real nice trip stlaking along the rail. Comes back on short rest but her last didn’t look too taxing, atleast to my eye. #7 Andrea’s Pic comes in off a short break, Jenkins uses this move a lot and his horses respond.They both love Laurel and will be good prices.
Race 10 – #4, #7, #8
I like #4 Could Be You in here. Barn seems to be heating up and this one goes 3rd off the lay off while taking a drop in class. Should rally late. #7 Mr Sexy Cat goes out for Salvaggio who has been sending live runners over the last few weeks. Bullet work and barns regular rider in for the assignment, looks well meant. #8 Lowes Island makes his 2nd start off the break here for G. Capuano and Gibbs takes the call, faces a field that is in for the same price but if you look at the horses he faced in his last at CTown, I think that group was a bit tough.
Probably will include #1A in my pick 3/4s, but I do feel who may be compromised by the #3 in here.
Good luck. We look quite a bit different today.
Dutrow has pulled that stunt before, running horses back on very short rest. A few years ago he ran Golden Man in a G3 stakes at Monmouth ( the Longbranch ) and then shipped him overnight to Delaware and ran him the very next day a graded stakes there ( the Lawrence Richards ). So I woudn’t be shocked if he isn’t scratched.
Infact, over the last 2 years, he has started horses on 1 – 7 days rest 55 times and has 11 wins, for 21%. So don’t be too shocked. Including 2 winnrs who only had 2 days between starts.
We’ve got a few differences, but we did wind up with many of the same horses in our picks. I think we share 17 of 30 horses overall. Races 7 and 10 are where we realy differ, and to be honest I didn’t like either race that much. Race 7 was too wide open for my tastes so I’ll probably just play odds.
By race 10 I think I was half asleep while handicapping!
Nice call on the Lake entry in race 1! 12/1? How often do you get that with Lake?
Looks like you avoided the goldfish in race 2
Punchintina in race 3 I did not see coming.
La Bamba!
Para bailar la bamba
Para bailar la bamba
Se necesita una poca de gracia
Una poca de gracia pa’mí y pa’ ti
Ay Arriba y arriba
Ay arriba y arriba por ti seré
Por ti seré
Por ti seré
Couldn’t resist!
two in a row now thanks to Gia Nia. That wasn’t a bad exacta in race 4 considering it seemed like an obvious 2 horse race. At least it was over $10
I see I mistyped Jazz Seeker as #4 in race 6 – he’s #2 and my top pick. Sorry for the misprint. My picks should be 2, 6, 7 in that race.
Looks like you were right and Dutrow is up to his old tricks again. 2 races in 3 days? Wow…..if he shows up he should be tough. Looks like I’ll be rooting for your pick in the 4 Untamed Hero since all the money is going on the 2 and 7 at the moment.
……And Jazz Seeker brings home a $108 pick 3!!!! It’s about damn time I won something.
Did you see the results of race 2? Not only did I avoid the gold fish, I gave out a $73.00 dollar horse.
Race 2 – #1, #3, #6
1st 6 MAID OF COTTON $73.00 $18.40 $6.00
2nd 1 PRETTY ONE $2.80 $2.10
Along with the race 1/2 double and the race 2 exacta …
$2 EX (6/1) paid $199.20
$2 DD (1/6) paid $220.40
I hope you atleast put $2 dollars to win on a horse that I put on here that goes off at 35-1???
Some thoughts on the day.
Race 1 – #1A Timely Bid was all revved up just like I thought. This horse was a bargain at 3-1 in my opinion.
Race 2 – I avoided the gold fish stunt and got a 35-1 shot home … you don’t need to do to much more after netting those prices in the exacta, double and on the win end.
Race 3 – Just a disaster of a race. Someone had to win and it wasn’t me. My 2nd choice ran 2nd at 6-1 but that was about it. This race knocked me out of the Pick 3 that started with the 35-1 in the prior race.
Race 4 – I couldn’t have had La Bamba in here if you told me she won before the race, especially at 5-2 … Two Columbus just never fired and Rose really didn’t ask her all that much so I think he felt something amiss early, or she just might need a break, she had been running and working sharply for over a month and had shown before that she had trouble stringing 3 good ones together.
Race 5 – Had the tri cold above. I felt it was a very fair price at $32.xx.
Race 6 – #7 came back on three days rest and almost pulled it off. Took money early in the betting and ran 2nd. Jazz Seeker looks to have turned the corner and finally figured out he was out there to be infront of his pals not behind them. $76.00 tri with #6 in 3rd.
Race 7 – You had the exacta and 4-1 was probably fair odds on #6. The pace battle I evisioned never materialized and my horses never got there.
Race 8 – Another poor maiden race. Silmaril’s sister wins her first race while big sis comes back in the next race to become a millionaire. I didn’t heed my own advice about 2nd time out improvement that I spoke of in race 3 or 5 and this horse won without me.
Race 9 – #3 Flame in Moon broke through the gate which never bodes well and she probably left her best race on the track before the start. She is another who doesn’t string many good ones together so who knows what her problem is. Silmaril wins and becomes a millionaire. One of the longshots I mentioned above ran 2nd for a nice $45.xx exacta.
Race 10 – #1A Johnny Z rolls off while my 17-1 #4 Could be You chases him in vain. What aggravated me even further was the exacta only paid $27.xx which I felt was light.
Pay attention to any horse that had to do most of his running along the rail on Dec. 29, I feel that day the real was pretty dead and some results in recent days have showed some evidence of it.
Oh I totally took your play of Maid of Cotton. Had a $5 saver win bet on her. THANK YOU PHIL!!!!!
I also took a flyer on Kiyoshi in Race 7 when he drifted up to 9/1 after a ML 9/2. Figured he was worth it after you gave out a $73.00 winner.
That was the hit of the day by far in race 2. What a beautiful Saturday – we each go home with money in our pockets!
I started out like crap but did pretty good towards the end. Races 4 through 10 my top choice took home 4 races, had a second and a third choice win others and the one race I lost my top one ran in second.
We get to see Tiago run here in a little bit. I see that Monterrey Jazz scratched from the outside, which could affect the pace situation. Tiago might need to park in 4th or 5th to have a shot today. Probably can’t afford to close from too far out now.
Good for you. I didn’t have such a good back half of the card. The exacta in the What A Summer and in the finale were good enough, but I never made a big kill. I would have had the tri in the What A Summer had Flame In Me won, but only had the exacta with Silmaril. I had a nice win bet on 17-1 on Could Be You in the finale and only had a smaller saver exacta with the #1A, and #8 so the exacta helped a bit but as I mentioned above I felt it was light.
Kyoshi was a disappointment to me. I liked this horse a lot. Probably would have been my second best bet on the card to the #4 Two Columbus in the 4th. Neither ran very well.
I like Monzante to upset the apple cart in that race with Tiago later on. Tiago is the captain obvious horse. I’m alive in pick 3′s that go like this
Race 8 – 2,7
Race 9 – 5,6,8,11,14
Race 10 – 4,5,7,8
$40 dollar ticket for a dollar. I played against Ravel in race 10, used Tiago but am hoping for an upset from one of my other 3. My fear was that I’d get the 3-5 in race 8 and than Tiago in race 10 and lose money. Fear not though, I beat the 3-5 in race 8, which was just run and things are looking ok.
Good luck if you are playing.
Jeez non-winners of 2 25k claimers just went 107.3. They need to slow that place down a bit.
Did you happen to watch the 3 year old race earlier on the card? Going 1 mile they went 22.xx, 44.xx and 107.xx around 2 turns. Unreal.
I got home in the 2nd leg of that pick 3 to the favorite. They ran
5
6
8
11
$2 SPR (5/6/8/11) paid $973.00
Think I have any of it? Nope! I think you can play .10 supers here and I didn’t even look at it.
Oh well onto leg 3, hopefully Tiago is pointing to the Big Cap and not ready to fire his best bullet today. Will pay nice if I can get around him here I’d imagine.
I just got nosed by 50-1 Air Commander. You have got to be kidding me.
Arrrgggghhhh!!!! Crap….I thought Johnny Eves would have that on the lead with no pace pressure. Air Commander? Are you kidding me? Didn’t see that one coming.
Have you looked at tomorrow’s card? Pretty interesting. Indian Blessing returns…..Tiago’s brother Alonzo looks interesting at 15/1 in a maiden special weight late on the card. There’s a few horses I like sprinkled throughout the card. I’ll probably cover the major races and then maybe toss some names out on horses I like in the rest of the card. Horses like Zenyatta and others.
No I didn’t get tomorrows form. Probably taking the day off, I went at it the last four days at Laurel and some allowance stakes and stakes races on the bigger circuits. Need a break, plus have some handicapping work to catch up on and some football to watch.
I will watch those races though, for future consideration and may yet get the Form in the morning. I’m interested in watching Zenyatta, she looks like a freak. Indian Blessing would be a stone cold play against for me if I were to play at all.
One of the other things I do at Laurel, or whatever mid-atlantic track I’m following closely at the time is make my own speed figures.
I just got done Saturdays card, which has some interesting yet not unusual aspects to the times.
These are Beyer Speed Figures that I come up with with a system that is a little bit of his method and a little bit of another method I was shown a few years ago. Sometimes myself and the Beyer assoc. that does the figures for the track come up with the same numbers, sometimes we differ greatly. I’ll be interested to see what he does with the figures for this card, because I ended up splitting the variant.
Here are the figures:
Race 1 – Timely Bid- 4+10k – 7F – 124.0 – 74
Race 2 – Maid of Cotton – F4+25kN2l – 7F – 126.4 – 41
Race 3 – Punchintina – F3yoMdn16k – 5.5F – 106.4 – 29
Race 4 – La Bomba – F4+N3x – 7F – 124.1 – 72
Race 5 – Gia Nina – F3yoMdn25k – 5.5F – 106.0 – 41
Race 6 – Jazz Seeker – 4+AlwN2L – 7F – 124.3 – 67/81
Race 7 – Jimmy’s Pride – 4+N1x – 1M – 138.4 – 72
Race 8 – Another Jewel -F3yoMSW – 7F – 127.0 – 52
Race 9 – Silmaril – F4+ Stk – 6F – 110.2 – 91
Race 10 – Johnny Z – 4+10k – 5.5F – 104.0 – 72
Really the day came up pretty easy. Most 5.5F races at Laurel have to be put on a variant to themselves. For whatever reason, run up distance, etc. the races just never fit the rest of the card. For all races 6F and over, I split the variant after the 6th race. The 6th race is an example of something that happens more at this track than any other I’ve ever seen. The pace of the race was so slow that the final time was affected in a significant way. This was the Jazz Seeker, Max’s Bid race and you would expected them to run anywhere from 80 to 76 or so. If I used the variant that I used for the prior races, this race would get a 67. Obviously slow, but that is actually the number they earned with the final time. Beyer Assoc. split these races out and make a guesstimate based upon the final half or quarter mile and what they might have run with a legit pace infront of them. If you go that route, then use the variant for the previous races, that race would get an 81, obviously more of a representation of what those horses are capable of, but not what they actually did. The two races of similiar class come up with similiar figures which is usually a good sign.
Wow….now that is impressive! I’d take your estimations over the approximations by the Beyer Assoc. since they are covering every track and yours is much more fine tuned the local action at Laurel. So do you have your own class/distance pars for each level of race? I’ve always wanted to try this but have never undertook the effort. Very interesting,Phil!
The best thing about making your own is knowing which races come up out of line and are questionable as far as the figures go. Without making your own figures, you don’t know what races are split out and which figures might not be perfect.
I did make my own class pars at one time for Laurel, however I don’t use them anymore. I use a projection type method which eliminated the need for making/using par times and is generally more accurate.
The Beyer gurus gave Silmaril an 88 for her performance this weekend, which leads me to think they probably split the card up also.
88…pretty darn close to what you had. Looks like you did your usual A+ job, sir! I’ve got to learn how to do this one day. I honestly wouldn’t even know where to start. I always thought that you took class/distance pars and then adjusted for conditions and beaten lengths. Man, you’re a regular Davidowitz!
I saw that Silmaril retired after the race so that was her swan song. She had herself a nice career.
The class par method is a good place to start, but it is an arduous task to perform. I did it and honestly would have been better off buying a par time sheet/guide from one of the companies that sells them. Making your own par sheet doesn’t offer you any real advantage because that method of making figures is only so accurate anyway. Distance has nothing to do with it because in theory, 10k claimers should run about 75 at 5.5F and at 1M 1/8th.
After all that work, they are really only the best way to go for the first few weeks of making figures, after that period of time the projection method based upon figures you have previously made is the most accurate way to go.
Beyer mentions this process of going from class par method to projection method in most of his books. I took his method a little bit further by incorporating some steps of a method I was taught by someone who makes and sells figures for/to big players, trainers, and owners as well as some of my own ideas.
Like I said above, the biggest edge may come on those days when the track changes drastically throughout the card and I know that the figures were tough to come up with and may be suspect. Such as Friday when the track was good for the first 4 races and then switched to fast. I could see that day being split into three variants and really those judgements could be considered subjective, which leaves those who aren’t sure of such instances at the mercy of the decision making that the Beyer assoc. making the figures uses.
Well you talked me into starting one of these “blogs”. I actually talked myself into it because it seemed like it was something fun to kill some time and it also seemed to help my handicapping.
http://horseracingtalk.wordpress.com/
I’m not even sure if it works!
Alright Phil!!!!!!!!!!! Your blog looks good, buddy! I’m adding you to my blogroll right now so hopefully that will bring some traffic your way. You know my thoughts – the world of horse racing needs your voice!!!!! You’ve got such amazing insights and your love for the game comes out in each of your posts. This is an amazing turn of events. PLease let me know if I can assist with anything.
Thanks. So far so good. I had no clue that so many of these blogs existed, including many that are in our area ( NJ, PA, DE, NY ). If nothing else studying the race and putting my analysis down in writing seems to have helped my handicapping. Or perhaps thats an illusion but it looks like fun.