THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

The annual Sunshine Millions races have become one of the favorite early betting events of the racing year for horseplayers across the country, but the recent weather experienced at Santa Anita has thrown a bit of a cloud over the event.  There 8 races of the sequence are split between Gulfstream and Santa Anita and are slated to feature some of the biggest names in racing, including Eclipse finalists Ginger Punch and Nashoba’s Key. 

As of Friday night, the situation at Santa Anita did not sound good, with afternoon racing cancelled for the day and the prospects of the track being open on Saturday for the big event looking dicey at best.   Three and a half inches of rain and hail have pelted the laughably named “all weather” surface that has been plagued by severe drainage problems all year.   The results have been brutal:  5 days of lost wagering in full card cancellations.   The cancellation of the Saturday card would be a huge blow to the track.  

Still, I just got back from California tonight, and I”m not about to handicap half a sequence when it includes the likes of Nashoba’s Key, so I’ve gone in assuming the sun gods will allow enough of a respite in the downpour to allow the track to miraculously drain enough for the races to be run as scheduled.   With that in mind, let’s take a look at the races, shall we? 

 The Sunshine Millions Sprint (Gulfstream – Race 7)

• #6 Benny the Bull (8/5*)
• #2 Mach Ride (4/1)
• #9 Tropic Storm (20/1)

The 1st leg of the sequence is the $300k Sunshine Millions Sprint for foy year olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track at Gulfstream Park.    #6 Benny the Bull finished 2nd behind eventual Breeder’s Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute in the Grade 1 Forego on 9/1/07 when that one posted a 124 Beyer figure that ended up best of 2007. ‘Benny ran an equally impressive 119 that day, then faltered a bit on Breeder’s Cup day in the slop.   He came after that to take the Grade 1 Defrancis Memorial at Laurel Park on 11/24/07 and returns to begin his 5 year old campaign today.  ‘Benny should get a favorable post setup here and be tough to take down.  If he does falter, #2 Mach Ride looks like a contender for Steven Standrige.   He ran second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector on 1/5/08 and could put in a good run if he can resist getting into a speed duel.  #9 Tropic Storm is the long-shot I like in here at 20/1.   The race progression looks extremely sharp to me, and that first effort this year was pretty darn good. Obviously this is his biggest test so far, but he is 4 now and Craig Dollase has him working lights out for this.   I don’t think they shipped here for show money. 

The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint (Santa Anita – Race 4)

• #4 Tiz Elemental (5/1)
• #8 Dearest Tricksi (5/2*)
• #6 Cher Ami (8/1)

The second leg is the $300k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint for fillies and mares 4 years old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track at Santa Anita.   #4 Tiz Elemental looks to me like she’ll get a nice pace setup to run at for trainer Carla Gaines.  She exits back to back impressive wins on the California circuit and if she ships well should prevail.  #8 Dearest Tricksi  won the Grade 1 LaBrea last out, which is largely the reason she has been anointed as the morning line favorite.  I think we can turn the tables on this one, but I’d still cover her with saver bets or in the multi-race exotics.   The reason I think she can be had is because we just might get a bit of a duel today, as there are several others that seem to need the lead to prevail.  Still, you’ve always got to respect a Grade 1 Stakes winner, especially with a jockey like Michael E. Smith aboard.   #6 Cher Ami is a horse I think I’ll use underneath in the exactas/trifectas.  If she goes for the lead in the aforementioned pace duel she is likely cooked, but A.E. Smith could get her to rate just a bit, and in a race like this that could giver her first run at them turning for home.   I like the others better, but don’t totally count this one out of it. 

The Sunshine Millions Oaks (Gulfstream – Race 8)

• #5 Blitzing (5/2*)
• #8 Phantom Income (5/1)
• #3 Sindy Jacobson (6/1)

The 3rd leg of the series is the $250k Sunshine Millions Oaks for 3 year old fillies going 6 furlongs over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  #5 Blitzing exits back to back impressive scores to close out her 2007 2 year old campaign.  Based on that form alone she is the one to beat here today.  #8  Phantom Income is a hit or miss type that is quite playable if you can forgive that last effort in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.   #3 Sindy Jacobson is an interesting shipper from California for John Sadler that has moved forward in each of her 3 career trips, despite being beaten by 2 lengths last time out by Spring Awakening, who returned to win in her next effort.  If she ships well, she’s a huge threat here today and potentially at a fairly decent price. 

2007 Eclipse Award finalist Nashoba’s Key

The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf  (Santa Anita – Race 5)

• #6 Nashoba’s Key (3/5*)
• #7 Quite a Bride (3/1)
• #2 Placid Lake (20/1)

The 4th leg of the series is the $500k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf for 4 year olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the Santa Anita turf course.   #6 Nashoba’s Key is one of the best fillies in the world and was runner up for a 2007 eclipse award for both older female and female turf horse.   She had an amazing 7 for 7 record before not firing in the slop at Monmouth on Breeder’s Cup day.  She returns to California today where, weather permitting, she should get off to a victorious start to her 5 year old campaign.  #7 Quite a Bride looks like the logical rival today as she should get the lead and will have to hold on against Nashoba’s Key to score.  She’ll definitely be in it until the end in my opinion.   #2 Placid Lake is a long-shot I’ll round out the trifecta ticket with and consider tossing a saver bet on.   She’s 4 for her last 5, albeit she’s never faced anything like Nashoba’s Key.   She might be coming late with Nashoba’s Key at Quite a Bride and I could see her getting place or show. 

2007 Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch

The Sunshine Millions Distaff (Gulfstream - Race 9)

• #2 Ginger Punch (6/5*)
• #11 Curiously Sweet (12/1)
• #8 Bayou’s Lassie (4/1)

The 5th leg of the series is the $500k Sunshine Millions Distaff for fillies and mares 4 years old and upward going 1/18 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  #2 Ginger Punch took home the 2007 Eclipse Award for top older female and starts her 2008 5 year old campaign here today at Gulfstream.  The daughter of Awesome Again seems the obvious play to me here in this race that you’ll need to beat to cash.  Good luck doing so.  I mean after all, she beat Nashoba’s Key!  Of the contenders, I like #11 Curiously Sweet, especially at 12/1.  When I first handicapped the race, I thought I was crazy for choosing her, but then I saw that Art Gropper made her his selection in the DRF “closer look” comments.  “Okay” I thought, “perhaps I’m not crazy?” The reason?  Check out those last 3 races.   Sure they weren’t against anyone like Ginger Punch, but they show she can run.  Need more proof?  Check out those blazing workouts.   This will be a test today but I won’t be surprised if she runs big.  #8 Bayou’s Lassie showed a new stalking capability last time out as opposed to the usual front running preference she had displayed thus far.  The result was a victory in a Grade 3 Stakes race.   If she goes for the front today she’s cooked.  If, however, she rates like last time, well then she just might have a chance. 

The Sunshine Millions Dash (Sant Anita – Race 6)

• #7 Bob Black Jack (5/2*)
• #6 Georgian Boy (3/1)
• #4 Afleet Ruler (5/1)

The 6th leg of the series is the $250k Sunshine Millions Dash for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs over the main Santa Anita track.  This looked like a 3 horse race to me.  #7 Bob Black Jack is the obvious favorite, and his only real risk looks to be some potential company trying to burn him out up in front.   He also has a peculiar habit of racing up and down from looking at his Beyer progression.  His PP’s don’t show a recent layoff, but he’s been off almost a full month now.  That last Santa Anita workout looks sharp, but to be honest a mule looks like it could turn up a blazing workout at Santa Anita these days.  #6 Georgie Boy broke my heart in the Del Mar Futurity when he defeated my beloved Salute the Sarge.  I remember watching that race and being impressed with Georgie Boy, although I think  “the Sarge” would have won had he not encountered some traffic problems.   It’s hard not to play a Grade 1 Stakes winner last out in a race like this though.  #4 Afleet Ruler is a very interesting colt exiting his maiden victory.   Don’t discount him just because of the move up.   He’s run 2 very nice races and that last workout at Hollywood is more impressive than Black Jack Bob’s at Santa Anita.  Does Sadler have another sneaky thief here? 

The Sunshine Millions Turf (Gulfstream – Race 10)

• #1 War Monger (4/1)
• #7 Soldier’s Dancer (6/1)
• #12 Presious Passion (10/1)

The 7th leg of the series is $500k Sunshine Millions Turf for four year olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the turf at Gulfstream Park.  #1 War Monger is a Bill Mott trained colt that has run very well over the turf thus far (6-3-1-0).  He exits an impressive win in the Rutgers at Monmouth, NJ on 10/24/07.  Brian Pochman calls him the “most exciting horse in the race” in his DRF comments.  He’s got a decent amount of versatility already and looks the one to beat.  #7 Soldier’s Dancer didn’t fire last time out in the McKnight.  He cuts back to a more favorable distance today and I really like his chances underneath in the exacta at least, if not more.  #12 Presious Passoin won the McKnight last out against Soldier’s Dancer, but don’t expect the same trip today.  Still, he’s rewarded his supporters with massive payouts in the past, and he’s playable based on that and the last victory if the odds are right.

The Sunshine Millions Classic (Santa Anita – Race 7)

• #8 Electrify (5/1)
• #1 Diamond Stripes (9/2)
• #2 Bilo (10/1)

The final leg of the series is the main event, the $1 Million Sunshine Millions Classic for four year olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main course at Santa Anita.  #8 Electrify is the one that stood out to me at 5/1.  He’s won in 4 of his last 5 efforts and excels at this distance (5-3-1-0).  If Now Victory and Bilo were to hook up in a speed duel, he could get first run at them from a stalking position. #1 Diamond Stripes finished 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup Classic against monsters like Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, and Any Given Saturday.  He probably could’ve run better in the Grade 2 Clark at Churchill on 11/23, but was bumped at the start and steadied early.  I think he has a big chance to fire here and I wouldn’t forget the level of competition this one has been facing.  Just look at the names in the recent races.  My god!!!! #2 Bilo is very interesting.  He’s stretching out for mike Mitchell from 6 furlongs to two turns for the first time, an angle that Mitchell hits at 19% with.  He’s won his last 3 efforts, including a Grade 1 at Hollywood Park.   Will likely be overlooked at the windows in his first route attempt, but could run a big one.   Hard to tell if he’ll be on the gas early of if he’ll conserve energy for the longer distance.  Either way I give him a chance, unless a speed duel with Now Victory ensues.   It’s probably best to tuck right in behind him if possible and give him just enough pressure to keep him from running away. 

Good luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather gives us a break and allows the Santa Anita races to be run.