THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Saturday’s betting action probably can’t get much livelier than the enticing $265,310 carryover in the Magna Pick Five pool.  The Magna Pick 5 is a multi-race exotic bet that encompasses races from 3 tracks owned by the Magna Entertainment Corporation:  Satna Anita in California,  Laurel Park in Maryland, and Gulfstream Park in Florida.

The total pool for today’s Magna 5 wagering is expected to reach well over $1,000,000, and there are some interesting races to wager on in the sequence.   Coming hot of the heels of my less than lucrative pick 6 win the other week, I’ve decided to take a modest stab at the pick 5 today and hope for success.   Let’s take a look at each of the races in the sequence and then I’ll share the ticket I”m considering playing.

*denotes a morning line favorite

**denotes a horse I’m using in my Pick Five ticket

1st Leg:  Laurel Park Race 10

• #8 Control System (8/5*)**
• #2 Baby Bird (6/1)**
• #3 For Kisses (10/1)**

The first leg of the Magna Pick Five sequence is the 10th and final race from Laurel Park.  This just so happens to be a rather interesting race for the 55th running of the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie Handicap.  The Barbara Fritchie is a $300,000 7 furlong race over the main track at Laurel for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.   The winner of last year’s edition of the Barbara Fritchie, Oprah Winnie is one of the contenders listed today, but ultimately I sided against the New-York bred mare due to her recent form, which hasn’t been anything near like what she was running when she entered this race in 2007.   She is an accomplished sprinter though, and if the odds are right will be worth a saver win bet.  For the multi-race exotic wager we are playing, I settled on #8 Control System, who really hasn’t run a bad race yet in her career while tallying a 5 for 7 lifetime win record.  The added furlong will be something folks looking to beat her will rightly point out, but I just couldn’t pass on her recent form when coupled with bullet workouts.  #2 Baby Bird came up as my second choice largely due to the switch to Horacio Koramanos (one of my favorite jockeys on the circuit)and the addition of blinkers for today’s race.   This might be a risky play though as the only attempt at 7 furlongs I can see in the past performances was by far her worst effort.  Maybe she’ll relax today though with the blinkers and be able to get out to an early lead.  If so, you’ve always got to consider those types.  #3 For Kisses should be rolling late.  I thought of leaving this one off the ticket to keep it cheaper but the moves from 8th to first 3 races back and 6th to 1st two races back made me think otherwise.  If you’re playing a single race exotic on this one, don’t forget about #4 Golden Dawn who looks pretty darn sharp right now.  I wouldn’t worry too much about shipping in from NY or running over the Laurel track for the first time as she’s given a good account of herself nearly everywhere she’s run.  If the odds are right this one might also be worth a saver win bet.  It was very hard to leave her off the Pick 5 ticket. 

2nd Leg:  Santa Anita Race 4

• #3 Belafonte (5/2*)**
• #2 Slam Slew (6/1)**
• #5 Polonius (3/1)

The 2nd leg of the Pick Five sequence is an $80k Optional Claimer/N1X event going 6 1/2 furlongs over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita.   #3 Belafonte seemingly took to the downhill course by finishing a game 2nd behind Sky Cape in a similar race on January 8th.  Note that he’s also been running against the likes of El Gato Malo (A legitimate contender for the Kentucky Derby so far) and Gayego, who himself is a fine 3 year old on the California circuit.  He should get an easier field today.   He seems to like coming just off the pace from a stalking position and one might expect Polonius and Devil’s Afleet to be dueling towards the front of the pack.  #2 Sam Slew is a bit tough for me to get a read on in terms of where he wants to be positioned.  This will be his first test on the turf, and it is discouraging that he faded quickly as the favorite at this level last time out.  Still, I like that he was right behind Salute the Sarge (one of my favorite colts) in his debut try and defeated Drill Down to break his maiden last June.  I think that last race was a scratch off.   #5 Polonius will likely be on the lead, which should give him a fighting chance for top honors. I only went 2 deep here though because in my opinion the downhill turf course seems to favor closers and off-the-pace types.  

3rd Leg:  Gulfstream Park Race 9

• #10 She’s All Ettish (6/1)**
• #9 Back For More (3/1*)**
• #11 Lady on Holiday (10/1)**

The 3rd leg of the Pick Five sequence is a $41,500 N2L Allowance race for 3 year old fillies going 1 mile over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  I liked #10 She’s All Ettish best in here.  She’s had 4 quality starts in her young career and has never finished worse than third.  She’s also got bullet workouts in the bag on 2/11 and 2/6 and trainer Martin Wolfson is hitting at a very enticing 40% from a 20 horse sampling when going from turf to dirt.   #9 Back for More ran an impressive debut to break her maiden at Gulfstream on 1/17.  The Todd Pletcher trained filly has early speed and when added with her own bullet workout looks like a legitimate thread to me.  #11 Lady on Holiday is one I think folks might overlook in this race in favor of Ginger Brew.  I was torn between them for a moment, but when you look at Lady on Holiday do note that she’s won at the 1 mile distance over the dirt before, which no one else in the field can claim.  Also, like She’s All Ettish, Lady on Holiday has yet to run a bad race.  If you have the money, I would not leave this one off the ticket.

4th Leg:  Santa Anita Race 5

• #1 Ghost Actor (5/2*)**
• #4 Mananan McLir (7/2)
• #3 Can’t Stop Slew (12/1)

The 4th leg of the Pick Five sequence is an open $12,500 claimer for four year olds and upward going 1 mile over the main track at Santa Anita.  I’m going to use this cheap claimer as my spot to single in the sequence as my pick 5 ticket is starting to get a bit expensive (see below for full ticket information). #1 Ghost Actor looks like the play here to me dropping in from the $16k level and getting a recent freshening after losing by a nose to Judge Gallivan last time out as the post time favorite.  As the DRF notes, Ghost Actor is just 2 for his last 29 races, but that last effort was good enough to have scored and he hasn’t exactly been blown away by anyone in recent efforts at more pricey claiming levels.  It’s certainly dangerous to single a horse that you can’t even see a winning effort from anywhere in the past performances, but you’ve got to take a stand somewhere.   Of the rest, I like #6 Mananan McLir in this race quite a bit.  The 9 year old is dropping in from the $28k level.  That kind of drop can often wake this type of runner up.  #3 Can’t Stop Slew also looks usable in the single race exotics as he should be on or near the front. 

5th Leg:  Gulfstream Park Race 10

• #1 B L’s Metropolitan (7/2*)**
• #4 Blues Brother (5/1)**
• #7 Motorcycle Tom  (8/1)**

We end the Pick Five sequence with the 10th from Gulfstream, a $25k Maiden Claimer for 3 year olds going 6 furlongs over the main track.  #1 B L’s Metropolitan drops in from the $50k maiden claiming level after a recent freshening.  He put okay efforts for place honors before fading as the favorite last out.  Note that he hit the gate in that last effort.  Has shown some speed and could well find himself on the lead in this one.  #4 Blues Brother is taking that drop from the special-weight ranks into today’s open claimer, which is probably my favorite angle in all of horse racing to play.  The race he was in on 1/20 turned out much sharper than today’s should be, and didn’t disgrace himself by finishing 5th out of 9.   I like that he’s cutting back in distance today and think we have some reasons to expect a much livelier performance.  #7 Motorcycle Tom looked like the best of the many debut horses in the field.  Honestly I’d prefer to go much deeper here but am ultimately paying for my indecisiveness in some of the earlier races.  

So, with all the above being said, what does my Magna 5 ticket currently look like?  As of this writing the ticket I’m considering playing would look like this:

• R1:  2, 3, 8
• R2:  2, 3
• R3:  9, 10, 11
• R4:  1
• R5:  1, 4, 7

(3x2x3x1x3 = 54 x $2 = $108 total cost)

 As always, be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches and try your best to at least catch the post parade for the first leg so that you can make some last minute decisions about the opening race of the sequence.  Usually wagering over $100 is not something I recommend, but I couldn’t resist the allure of such a large betting pool.