Sunday is quite a day for racing at beautiful Gulfstream Park in Florida. The current leader of the three year old colt division and esteemed leader of our 2008 Kentucky Derby watch list, War Pass, returns to racing action in his innagural 2008 effort in what appears to be one of the more mismatched races in history.
The feature of the day however will be the 62nd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, which features a slew of Kentucky Derby hopefuls including Court Vision, Monba, Z Humor, Anak Nakal, and Cool Coal Man. The event is sure to add quite a bit of separation to the division and will hopefully answer some questions for us about who the real contenders are from the pretenders. I’ve put together a pick 6 ticket along with analysis of the races included in the sequence below.
Pick 6 Selections
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Race 6:
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#7 Overandabeauty (4/1)
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#6 Lady on Holiday (3/1)
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We start the pick 6 sequence off with a $41,500 Allowance N1X event for 3 year old fillies going 1 mile over the main track. #7 Overandabeauty looks like she could get the lead today. Apart from that I have to admit that I’m a total sucker for the Tapit connection angle. I like the recent works and think she is in fine shape. Her last effort seems a toss to me which makes her a serious contender and my top choice. #6 Lady on Holiday might be the best of the field on paper. She’s never finished out of the trifecta in 4 decent starts. #3 Pocket Angel is a bit of a long-shot at 15/1, especially considering her win was at the maiden claiming ranks, but it’s not like she humiliated herself when in the special weight ranks and her form looks decent to me. She’s probably not a serious win candidate but I wouldn’t leave her off the exacta and trifecta.
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Race 7:
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#9 Not Acclaim (6/1)
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#2 Lord Robyn (3/1*)
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#7 Salute the Count (4/1)
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The 7th race is an Optional Claimer ($75k) N2X going 5 furlongs over the turf for four-year-olds and upward. #9 Not Acclaim was my top choice. The last two races look really sharp to me on this one and it’s hard to ignore the 8 wins lifetime at today’s distance. #2 Lord Robyn has multiple angles that are playable, but will probably take significant action at the windows due to the triple digit Beyer figures in recent history. Toss that last race where he was steadied and checked and he’s an obvious win candidate. #7 Salute the Count could be the thief today. Note the switch to Prado as jockey and some of the recent morning moves, along with the 5 wins in 8 tries at today’s distance. I wouldn’t leave this one off the ticket today.
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Race 8:
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#6 Credit Only (8/5*)
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I chose the 8th race of the day, a $41k Allowance N1X for three-year-olds sprinting 6 furlongs over the main track, as a place to use one of my singles on the ticket. I settled on the favorite, #6 Credit Only, as he seems the logical top choice after breaking his maiden last fall at the Maiden Special Weight level. Sure he’s been off a while, but the workouts look sharp. I expect him to show up and run a big one today. I’d use #4 Ya Think and #2 Snow Mon underneath in the exacta. I’d toss in #5 Doctor Hall for the trifecta.
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Race 9:
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#5 Z Humor (8/1)
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#3 Court Vision (3/1*)
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#7 Monba (4/1)
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The 9th and featured race of the day is the 62nd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth ($350k) for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track. There’s a million horses to chose from here so you almost have to go deep. You could make a case for as many as 6 potential winners here. I’m going to make Z Humor my top choice. Yeah, I’m concerned that they brought him back so quickly, but he didn’t do much in that last effort. I know this guy is a warrior that will fight for it in the stretch. I’ll use Court Vision as he’s a horse I think very highly of at the moment, even though the DRF’s cover article makes it pretty clear that they may be expecting him to need this race today. I could foresee a good possibility of a Bill Mott exacta today. I’ll use Todd Pletcher’s Monba as well as I really like the horses he’s been running against such as Into Mischief and Colonel John. My hope is that Monba will give us a measuring stick for how the top tier of California 3 year olds stack up against the rest of the competition. Cool Coal Man is the one that scares me the most to leave off the ticket. We’re going to find out a lot about Ready Set, Anak Nakal, and Adriano as well. Toss in the recent good form of Kentucky Bear and the way Halo Najib has run well behind some tough winners and suddenly this is a very deep race to handicap. I’ll use the three above in the belief that they are the best 3 horses here today. Be prepared for a surprise though as this looks like any-body’s race. If you feel good about a particular long-shot, I’d say today could be a good day to play them.
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Race 10:
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#5 War Pass (2/5*)
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Nothing to see here. Just single War Pass here and move on to the next race in the card. Seriously, is this not the most unevenly matched race you’ve ever seen? The others are barely registering half of his monstrous 100+ Beyer figures.
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Race 11:
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#1 Pleasant Strike (3/1)
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#5 Parading (2/1*)
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We end the day with a $75k Optional Claimer N3X for four-year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. #1 Pleasant Strike is my top choice, although it’s probably no surprise that I’m a sucker for the Smart Strike connections considering my love of Curlin. It looks like we can scratch that fourth place finish in the Axthelon Stakes. The rail is really my biggest concern, but I feel this is the right level to expect a win today. #5 Parading is the favorite and looks like tough cookie that finishes well, two qualities that quickly endear a horse to me when handicapping. I’d use #3 Terrific Storm underneath in the exacta although I can’t figure out what happened in that effort in the Appleton?
Pick 6 Recap:
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Race 6: 6, 7
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Race 7: 2, 7, 9
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Race 8: 6
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Race 9: 3, 5, 7
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Race 10: 5
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Race 11: 1, 5
(2x3x1x3x1x2 = 36x$2 = $72 Total)
Best of luck to you and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches. Here’s hoping we get some of our questions answered about this year’s crop of three-year-olds when the sun sets on Sunday’s racing action.
The Fountain of Youth has got to be one of the most wide open races I’ve ever seen. I don’t even like Mott’s or Zito’s horses!
Monba, with soon to be Hall of Famer Edgar Prado aboard, looks quite formidable here.
Make the Point will show the way. Question is, can he stay? Velazquez apparently thinks so after getting off Cool Coal Man to ride him.
Elysium Fields became a different animal after adding blinkers, and is working faster now than he’s ever ran in a race. Talk about a live longshot.
Kentucky Bear won his only race with ease, and earned second best Beyer in doing so. We still don’t even know how good this horse is. He earns my win bet, and should be a great investment at odds perhaps over 8-1.
Indeed, I can’t argue with any of your thoughts. It’s definitely worth it to look for value in some of the longer shots on the board. Ron Correll likes Make the Point as well but the 11 hole is a concern. What a race! It’s setting up like a mini-Kentucky Derby today. (He’s got a comment on his write-up that only one horse has won at this distance from the 10 hole out – and that was Barbaro).
http://blogs.sj-r.com/themorningline/index.php/2008/02/22/fountain-of-youth-is-crowded/
I’m going to guess that the step up in competition will be a bit too much for Kentucky Bear to win. I think there’s enough speed in the race that Make the Point will be defeated late.
Elysium Fields sure does look like a useful longshot. I also think I may be selling Anak Nakal too short today.
Can I hit the “all” button ?
Fountain of youth pick!
17 minutes before post and my cash just went on #7 Monba 4-1.
did you hear about the guy who bet a dollar and won 2 million by picking 8 winners in a horse race? I think it was in Europe. It happened a week ago i think. Is that even possible?
And Cool Coal Man gets it done.
@Scott – Ah, the Scott Shelton “kiss of death” strikes again!
@thecup – I think you’re talking about the guy that hit the pick 6 at Santa Anita last week. Basically the wagering pool was inflated due to no one winning for several days in a row. The “carryover” attracted another million plus in wagering and than he had the only winning ticket, along with about 20 tickets that got money back for having 5 out of 6 winners. That’s a dream come true scenario. I think he ended up with somewhere between 3 and 4 million dollars.
Did you see all the bumping and checking in the clubhouse turn? Kentucky Bear and Monba were involved. Were any of your other horses involved? How about that quarter in 25 and change? The race ended up being disappointing for the both of us.
I read a DRF article about the race and they said the time was wrong and that the quarter was in :24.10. Monba returned from the track with a cut on his hind leg. There was some weird stuff happening in that first turn.
Monba got the worst of it. He just never looked comfortable and you could tell something was wrong for him to finish last. He’s a better horse than that. I couldn’t really tell from the replay who else might’ve been involved.
That time seemed insanely slow. Disappointing yes, but I thought Court Vision and Elysium Fields looked really good. Court Vision got almost nothing to run aat and left himself too much to do. I didn’t even see Anak Nakal. Elysium Fields fought back and looked like he might’ve caught Cool Coal Man in a few more steps. Very interesting. Hats off to Cool Coal Man but it looked like he got a perfect trip to me.
Edit: By the way, I just posted the race replay and write up.
The guy in Europe won like 1.7 million for a $1 dollar ticket, he had 8 winners in a row and swept the pool.
That was a very weak field. War Pass would have beat all of them without breaking a sweat.
I still don’t see anyone that will challange him just yet. He is so good and above all of these horses.