Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

30 03 2008

With 5 weeks to go now until the 2008 Kentucky Derby, the picture is starting to get a little clearer.  Big Brown’s romp in the Florida Derby on 3/29 has shaken up the entire division.  Will War Pass be able to return to form in the Wood Memorial?  If  so we’ve got ourselves a heck of a race coming up in May.  If not we’ll need some more contenders to step up here quickly.   Interestingly, while at one point it looked like War Pass had a shot at being lone speed in the Kentucky Derby, there now figures to be a strong pace with or without him. 

As always, you can either view my rankings on the main Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby page, or you can use the “more” tag below. Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Adriano, Atoned, Big Brown, Big Truck, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, El Gato Malo, Elysium Fields, Gayego, Georgie Boy, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Majestic Warrior, Pyro, Roman Emperor, Texas Wildcatter, Visionaire, War Pass

Big Brown looks for real

29 03 2008

Big Brown crushes the field in the G1 Florida Derby on 3/29/08

Rick Dutrow looks like he’s got a potential Derby winner on his hands with 3 year old phenom Big Brown. On Saturday at Gulfstream Park the 3 year-old son of Boundary destroyed a seemingly stacked field of contenders in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, blazing through opening fractions of  :22.76 and :45.83 to ultimately win by 5 lengths in 1:48.16, just .37 seconds off the track record.

Heading into the Floriday Derby, I had decided that the outside post position was too much for Big Brown to accept him as the 5/2 favorite.  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  The race wasn’t even close.  He absolutely annihilated the competition and won so impressively that I think you now have to think of him as a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby on May 3rd.

I’m not going to give too much away for my updated Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings coming out tomorrow night, but suffice to say that Big Brown will be rocketing up horseplayers charts all over the country.  The win in the $1 million Florida Derby assures that the colt will be headed to Louisville for the Derby as one of the top betting choices.  Big Brown now improves to 3 for 3 lifetime after having well documented hoof problems earlier in his career.  

big-brown.jpg

Smooth Air was chasing gamely for 2nd, and Tomcito did run well enough to get up for show as I suspected he might.  Elysium Fields was a horrifically disappointing next to last in the 12 horse field.   Big Brown returned $5.oo to win and anchored a $68.80 exacta with Smooth Air underneath.  Adding Tomcito for show awarded bettors a $702.80 trifecta.

I’ll just come right out and say it.  That was the most impressive win I’ve seen this year on the Derby trail.  Pyro’s run in the Risen Star is probably second, but this is going to be the one that sticks out in my mind.  Will there still be questions left to answer?  Of course.  Almost immediately the ESPN crew began speculating that the hard dirt surface of Churchill and the possibility of a good amount of pace would be factors working against the colt. 

I’m not really concerned with that yet since we’ve got a full month to go.  For now all I’m concerned with is the fact that we’ve got us someone who can give Pyro a run for the money.  We’ve got a horse race starting to take shape now for May, and if somehow War Pass were to get back on track in the Wood Memorial, suddenly things would start to look a lot more interesting than they have been. 

Of the horses running behind, I really liked what Tomcito did coming from last to third, especially since that was his first race in months.  Jockey Jorge Chaves mentioned that he seemed a little tired, but the colt has raced grueling distances in the past.  He looks to me like one that could move forward from this race along with the winner. 

Smooth Air will almost assuredly be heading to Louisville as well after bagging $200,000 in earnings with his 2nd place finish.  I was expecting him to get tired in the stretch but he showed he could handle the distance just fine.  Hey Byrn got up late for 4th.

Big Brown is likely to envoke visions of Barbaro, as two years ago the legendary colt won the Florida Derby in route to his 2006 Kentucky Derby victory.  My advice is to let Big Brown be Big Brown.  Resist the urge to compare.  Just let him mature into the horse he will be. We may have a great one on our hands here. 


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Curlin on top of the world

29 03 2008

Curlin wins the Dubai World Cup (AP Photo/Kamran Jabrieli)

Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year, is now a world champion after his impressive victory in the Dubai World Cup.  His story is  one of the most amazing in all of horse racing’s celebrated history, and we’re living it as it happens.   Just over one year ago, the previously unraced colt was breaking his maiden.  In that short time he has now gone from maiden to world champoin.

It was at the Eclipse Awards ceremony on January 21st that majority owner Jess Jackson announced that Curlin would return for his 4 year old campaign.  After picking up Horse of the Year honors, Jackson mentioned that the fans of horse racing needed their heroes.  He vowed to give us one by bringing the wonder-colt back into racing action.

Curlin spent the opening months of his 2008 season in mysterious fashion.  Folks were anxious to find out where he would enter for his first race.  There was even some speculation that he would be retired to a breeding career to help pay off legal debts for some of the colts minority owners.  He opened with a series of sharp workouts that have seemingly helped turn his running mate Pyro into the top colt of the 3 year old crop at the moment.

Eventually we learned that he would be headed to Dubai, where he would spend a month preparing for a run at the richest race in the world, the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  Trainer Steve Asmussen gave him a preparatory run around the Nad Al Sheba racetrack in Dubai to help get him ready, sighting the way Curlin had improved in his second effort at numerous tracks, including Oaklawn, Belmont, and Monmouth.   Curlin responded to his trial run by easily defeating a field that was clearly competing for place and show, with jockey Robbie Albarado only having to tap the colt once at the top of the stretch. 

Heading into Saturday’s prestigious Dubai World Cup, we were finally going to see how Curlin would stack up against the top competitors from around the world.  He would face off against the likes of Jalil, Asiatic Boy, Vermilion, and Premium Tap.  Curlin had trained beautifully for the race and had over a month to get perfectly acclimated to the notoriously warm conditions at Dubai.

As the field began the post parade it was clear that the colt was primed for a big run.  He looked absolutely regal as he went to post.  A little warm, truth be told, but that could be said of the entire field.   His coat was as shiny as ever, and he looked as physically sound as I’ve ever seen him.

As the race began, Curlin had to overcome an outside post position, having drawn the 12 hole.  Jockey Robbie Albarado indicated before the race however that he actually preferred the outside and thought Curlin was a better runner from the outside than the inside.  Contrast his runs in the Preakness and the Belmont to get an idea of what he meant. 

Curlin broke well and was up towards the lead with Well Armed  and Asiatic Boy for the entire race.   At times it looked like he was a bit too aggressive and wanted to run away with it from gate to wire.  Albarado held on to him well and kept him within about a half length of Well Armed entering the final turn.  

Once in the stretch, Curlin exploded and opened up a devastating lead with about 300 meters or so to run.  He ended up blowing the field away by an amazing 7 3/4 lengths to capture the World Cup, returning $2.80 as the heavy 2/5 favorite. 

Jockey Robbie Albarado was modest after the race, indicating that all the credit belonged to Scott Blasi (assistant trainer), Steve Asmussen (head trainer), and Carmen Rosas (Curlin’s exercise rider). 

“He’s an amazing horse,” Albarado said. “I’m just honored. He did all the work. It is an amazing feeling.”

The win vaults Curlin up the list of all-time earnings winners all the way to third overall, behind the legendary Cigar and Skip Away.  Curlin has now amassed $8.8 million in just 11 lifetime starts.  Cigar, the top overall earner ever, bankrolled $9.9 million over a storied career.   If all goes well, Curlin could become the world’s top money-winning horse ever with his next start.  I’m hoping to be there cheering him on wherever it is.

Curlin’s romp in the Dubai World Cup


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Waiting for Saturday

26 03 2008

Curlin

Curlin: ready for battle

Before I get started, tell me that isn’t the most impressive looking colt you’ve ever seen?  My god Curlin is gorgeous!  And check out that look in his eye.  Can’t you just feel the cheesy 80′s music coursing through your veins?

“It’s the eye of the tiger, it’s the cream of the fight
Risin’ up to the challenge of our rival
And the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night
And he’s watchin’ us all in the eye of the tiger”

Yeah man….that’s how pumped I am right now, pumped enough to break out the old-school 80′s cheese, and the cumulative effect of this is that I can’t sleep a bloody wink. With that in mind,  I’m going to struggle here to put into words how I’m feeling:

I want Curlin to win in the World Cup on Saturday so freakin’ bad!!!!  I’d almost sacrifice anything to see it happen.  In fact, I’ve decided that if it’s humanly possible, I’m travelling to wherever he makes his first return start back in the U.S. to see him run.  The way I see it, I’ve only got handful of opportunities to see him run in person again before the season will be over.  All the anticipation of days like Saturday and the upcoming Kentucky Derby in May just seems to make time pass in the blink of an eye.  Plus, and perhaps most importantly, I just know I’ll never have another Curlin. 

Every horse racing fan gets at least one great one.  I feel a bit like Chaz Palminteri’s character, Sunny, from the film “A Bronx Tale” when he imparts the wisdom that every man gets 3 great boxers in their life.  Hopefully the symbolism isn’t lost upon the reader.   You guys know what I’m talking about.  That special horse that makes you get choked up talking about their greatness.  The one that when you close your eyes and picture greatness, their image is forever burned into your brain.  We’ve each got our own opinions and preferences, and lord knows I’m not asking for anyone to agree with mine, only to understand the passion which he awakens in me.   Indeed, like good King Henry V would implore his men in the infamous “St. Crispin’s Day” speech that I’m so fond of quoting:

“he shall stand a tip-toe and rouse him at the name of Curlin”

Obviously I substituted Curlin there for “Crispin.”  :)

Of course, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t worry.  It would be un-Kevin like for me to show false bravado or ersatz heroism and boast too much about his talents.  I know he’s got his work cut out for him, and the mettle of his foes is battle tested and assured.  I know that Saturday will take a great deal of patience, energy, and a healthy dose of lady luck.  I know, that it’s always a possibility that Saturday could be his last race.   But I won’t let that damper my excitement for a moment.  Part of me wants to trumpet as loudly as I can the kind of passion he invokes in me, but then I remember that the more I build him up, the harder he will fall if/when something goes wrong.  I’m almost ashamed to admit I know this, but wasn’t it the Dixie Chicks that once twanged “if I fall, you’re going down with me?”  I suspect that would be Curlin’s tempered reply to me if he could speak. 

Nonetheless,  my love of Curlin comes over me like an irresistible force and compels me to enjoy the fleeting moments of greatness we are afforded when they present themselves.  Who knows how long it will be before another takes such a hold of me?   Surely I’ll lock my love of Curlin away somewhere special, where no other could usurp his position of honor.  That’s just how I am.  Loyal to a fault.  What makes him so special to me is that he has rewarded me over and over again for that loyalty.  How could I not love him so? 

Folks often think I’m kidding when I talk about that moment after the Preakness was run - when it was official on the monitors and you could see Curlin getting that chestnut nose of his over the wire ahead of Street Sense.   My memory is somewhat choppy.  I remember unleashing a loud Neanderthal-like yell….or probably more correctly a series of loud Neanderthal-like yells (and yes, there may have even been gratuitous chest-beating).  I remember holding my wife’s hand.  I remember her looking at me in amazement in disbelief, and I remember being utterly speechless while tears of joy streamed down my face.  Ah, to live life with such passion and emotion.  It can only be described as exhilarating.

We live in an age where heroes are hard to come bye.  Regardless of how right or wrong it is to prop sports figures and celebrities up as “heroes” or “role models” – it’s an act we do almost instinctively these days.   More often than not, we end up regretting these decisions as folks wind up being accused of cheating, or breaking our hearts by departing for distant clubs via Free Agency, or making some public ass of themselves, much to our collective embarrassment.  Horse racing has it’s pitfalls, believe me, but the one thing that strikes me as genuine is the nobleness of the horses themselves.  Such valiant competitors.  The perfect blend of beauty, power, and speed.  Sometimes the people around them are not to our liking, but the horse itself just wants to run, and for that matter wants to win. 

For a guy whose football teams have been in decline in recent years (the St. Louis Rams and the Alabama Crimson Tide), and for whom the Orioles haven’t managed an 90 win season in, I don’t know – 50 years (or so it seems), I can’t even begin to quantify how thrilling it’s been to have this guy to cheer for.  When I needed a champion, he was there.  Now we’ve got one major hurdle left to climb.  One last trial and tribulation before we can forever say that he took on the world and won. 

If there is enough magic out there in the night, that by some stroke of fortune and good-omen I could somehow will him on this weekend, then by god make it so!  This will be my last post about Curlin and the Dubai World Cup until the results are official on Saturday.  Just thinking about it has me all worked up again.  This is what we live for folks – races that actually matter.  While the nation is torn assunder searching for political candidates to support, I’ve got my resolve fully invested in a special colt that should be running his heart out this weekend for the biggest prize of his life.  And just like Sunny says in the clip from A Bronx Tale I linked above:  “who knows, this one may put wind in your sail….this could be your first great one.” 

Watch him while you can folks.  The great ones come and go far too quickly.


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Florida Derby shaping up to be a good one

25 03 2008

It looks like we’ve got quite a race shaping up for this Saturday’s running of the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In the past 12 years, 3 winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to prevail in the Kentucky Derby, including Barbaro (2006), Monarchos (2001), and Thunder Gulch (1995).  The 2008 edition of the Florida Derby has many big name competitors on the Derby trail and figures to be a useful measuring stick when attempting to separate the pack come the first Saturday in May.

There are several horses from our Road to the Kentucky Derby rankings, including Big Brown, Hey Byrn, Elysium Fields, and Fierce Wind.  In addition, it is possible that Majestic Warrior will run this weekend.  Joining this group will be other live competitors including Tomcito, Cool Gator, Face the Cat, and Smooth Air.

big-brown.jpg Big Brown is the likely post time favorite for the 1 1/8 mile race.  The son of Boundary is 2 for 2 lifetime, including an eye popping 104 Beyer speed figure in an allowance level victory last out.  He broke his maiden by 11 lengths last summer at Saratoga before hoof problems sidelined him for several months.  Rick Dutrow has brought the colt back impressively and there is already quite a buzz circulating among horseplayers about his ability to compete with the big boys this May.  I think most of the horse racing world is anxious to see him this weekend.  Kent Desormeaux will ride the beautiful looking colt that makes a stunning impression visually.

Big Brown romps in his 2008 debut at Gulfstream Park in early March

hey-byrn.jpg Hey Byrn is a horse that my friend Ron Correll of the State Journal-Register is very excited about.  Trained by Eddie Plesa Jr., the son of Put it Back defeated onetime Derby hopeful Alaazo on 3/2/08 in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.  Prior to that he prevailed by an impressive 14 lengths on February 10, earning a 97 Beyer speed figure.  Interestingly, Jose Lezcano has picked up the mount in place of Edgar Prado, who will be busy in Dubai this weekend.   At the end of his aforementioned 14 length victory in February, the track announcer had yelled out “he’s for real!”  We’ll certainly find out if he’s for real this weekend.  Ron’s got one of the best eyes for talent I’ve ever seen so I’m equally as anxious to see him as I am Big Brown.

Hey Byrn wins impressively at Calder last August as a 2 year old

elysium-fields.jpg As if all that weren’t enough, another colt that I think very highly of is entered for Saturday’s race.  Elysium Fields, the talented son of El Prado who we last saw battling it out for 2nd against Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth, returns looking for Graded Stakes money that can help send him to Kentucky.  I really like this colt.  I thought he was much the best in the Fountain of Youth, but he may actually be stepping up in company today against the likes of Big Brown and Hey Byrn.  Barclay Tagg put blinkers on him before the Fountain of Youth and the colt responded with a rousing run in the stretch.  After Cool Coal Man passed him, he had enough left to fight back and make a late run for the money.   He broke his maiden in January at Gulfstream by 8 lengths.   He worked 6 furlongs in 1:12 at Gulfstream officially, with an unofficial 7 furlongs in 1:26. 

Elysium Fields, after losing the lead to Cool Coal Man, fights back in the final strides to lose by a neck

Fierce Wind wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes over Big Truck Fierce Wind is a Nick Zito trained son of Dixie Union.  Most notably, he defeated Big Truck in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 16. Big Truck of course went on to win the Tampa Bay Derby over Atoned and War Pass.  Fierce Wind will be seeking his 4th consecutive victory on Saturday.  The colt breezed 4 furlongs in 49 seconds on 3/18.

Fierce Wind defeats Big Truck and Z Humor in the Sam F. Davis Stakes

Tomcito Tomcito is a very interesting colt that most folks are probably not familiar with.  He’s a Stakes winner shipping in from Peru that was a mere $7500 purchase as a yearling.  That’s rather amazing considering his daddy is Street Cry, who produced 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and is one of the most sought after sires in the world.  Tomcito will make his U.S. debut on Saturday and will look to invoke memories of Canonero II – the famed Venezuelan colt that won the 1971 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.  The colt worked 5 furlongs in 58.6 on 3/17.  He won the prestigious Nacional Derby in Peru with a resounding move in the stretch from very wide.

Tomcito’s wide run prevails in the Derby Nacional (Peru)

 

Smooth Air is yet another contender in the stacked field on Saturday.  The son of Smooth Jazz won the 7 furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park earlier in the year on January 5.  Most recently, he was third behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay on February 16.

Face the Cat is a highly regarded son of Tale of the Cat that many horseplayers have been waiting to see for quite some time.  Padua Stables purchased him after an allowance level victory on 1/30 at Gulfstream and promptly transferred him from Helen Pits barn to Todd Pletcher’s barn.  Many will note that story sounds eerily similar to that of Curlin in 2007.  The colt breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 in his most recent prep workout.

Cool Gator is a son of Macho Uno, who was the 2 year old champion back in 2000.  He’s trained by Danny Vella and will enlist the services of jockey Eddie Castro.  He appears to be a bit over-matched here as he was recently second behind fellow Florida Derby competitor Nistle’s Crunch in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race on 1/30 at Gulfstream.  Still, Vella thinks the colt is progressing nicely and wants to see how he stacks up against the competition.

majestic_warrior_l.jpg Majestic Warrior remains a possibility for the Florida Derby.  The son of A.P. Indy was at one point in time (read:  around New Year’s Day) my selection for the Kentucky Derby.  Since then just about everything has gone wrong.  First he was delayed with some minor physical problems, and then after a long layoff he came back to finish a disappointing 7th in the Louisiana Derby.  He’ll need to turn things around quickly if he’s to remain on the Derby trail, but it’s possible the colt needed that last race.  He did win the Hopeful in 2007 as a 2 year old.  Majestic Warrior breezed 4 furlongs in 49.2 on 3/19 at Payson Park. 

Other entries in the race include Nistle’s Crunch, BB Frank, and Da’ Tara.  It would be a huge surprise to me if one of them were able to prevail this weekend.  This race looks loaded with developing talent and could wind up being the best prep race we’ve seen so far this year when all is said and done. 

I’ll be back later in the week to make official selections after the post positions have been assigned. 


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Curlin set for world domination

24 03 2008

Curlin in the stall

2007 Horse of the Year: Curlin

A date with destiny is rapidly approaching for Curlin, Eclipse Award winner for 2007 Horse of the Year.  The 4 year old blasted his way through U.S. competition by winning the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Breeder’s Cup Classic last year.  With one  prep race under his belt for 2008, he now has his sights set on the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup this Saturday. 

It’s a moment I”ve been waiting for ever since it was announced he was headed to Dubai earlier in the year.  As many of you know, I’m quite fond of Curlin and consider him the greatest horse I’ve had the pleasure of seeing with my own eyes.  I know that’s a bold statement, but I firmly stand behind it.   I cheered for him all throughout his 3 year old campaign, including the euphoria of winning the Preakness and the Classic, as well as the agony of losing in the Belmont and Kentucky Derby.  It’s been a roller-coaster ride, for sure, but I never for a moment doubted how talented he is.  

Despite his wins in the Preakness and Classic, Curlin is still not quite as well known as I’d like him to be.  From conversations I’ve had over the past year with folks who are not regular fans of the game, it’s easy to observe that Street Sense has somehow achieved more fame and name based recognition.  This bothers me for a number of reasons, most notably that Curlin is 2 for 3 when head to head with Street Sense, and probably would’ve made it 3 for 3 if not for a “kiss of death” post position (the 2 hole) in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  Nonetheless, the public somehow remains fascinated with Street Sense, who has long since retired, while Curlin continues to march towards history.  Owner Jess Jackson brought him back for his 4 year old campaign after we yet again watched with disappointment as the top 3 year olds in the nation retired to the breeding shed.   Jackson said he wanted racing fans to have a hero to cheer for, and wanted a super star that could attract fans to the sport and restore some of the luster to our struggling sport.  A win by Curlin this weekend would do much towards fulfilling that vision.

History itself could be in the makings this weekend if the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike is able to prevail in the prestigious event.  He’s already racked up over $5 million in lifetime earnings with his 7 wins in 10 lifetime starts.  A win in the Dubai World Cup could make him the horse with the most earnings in history.  Currently that honor is held by the legendary Cigar, who won $9,999,815 over a storied career.  With $6 million in total purse money on the line in Dubai, the lions share of which awarded to the winner of the World Cup, Curlin won’t quite break Cigar’s record with a win.  However, a victory would put him in great position to overtake Cigar at some point later this year.  You might say the son of Smart Strike would be in “striking position” – which if you’ve ever seen Curlin run is precisely when he’s at his best.  Give him a target to run at and he’s bound to take aim at it with his giant closing strides. 

Facing Curlin will be an impressive array of competitors from all over the world. The Dubai World Cup (DWC) stands to feature a full field of 13 horses, which represents the largest field in the history of the race. The top competitors of the world will line up to take their shot at the American super-horse this Saturday at Nad al Sheba racetrack.  The field for the DWC looks like this:

  • Curlin
  • Jalil
  • Vermilion
  • Premium Tap
  • Asiatic Boy
  • A.P. Arrow
  • Well Armed
  • Happy Boy
  • Great Hunter
  • Gloria De Campeo
  • Lucky Find
  • Kocab
  • Stay Ed

Jalil is an interesting competitor for Godolphin Stables, as he was a staggering $9.7 million purchase as a yearling.  He started off a bit slow, but the 4 year old son of Storm Cat and brother to After Market has handled his DWC prep races exceptionally well.  He won the Grade 2 Al Maktoum Challenge (Group III) using a determined drive from around mid-pack to take command in the stretch.  He’s got 4 wins and 2 places in 7 lifetime starts and is in exceptional form.  I think he’ll be the biggest threat to Curlin on Saturday.

Folks may recall Premium Tap from last year’s World Cup, where he dueled with Invasor through much of the stretch before finally being put away by the 2006 Horse of the Year.  The 6 year old son of Pleasant Tap won the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup and the Crown Prince Cup at Dubai last year before going down in the DWC.  Interestingly, just a few weeks ago trainer Julio Gardel had indicated Premium Tap might skip the DWC, but now he has officially entered.  My gut tells me that he was a better horse last year and that his connections are hoping for a minor award at best.

Vermilion is the top dirt horse in all of Japan.  The 6 year old is out of the Sunday Silence mare Scarlet Lady  and has won 4 races in a row in Japan since finishing 4th in last year’s DWC.  Most recently he won the prestigious Grade 1 February Stakes at Tokyo.  Vermilion looks to be in sharp form entering Saturday’s race and could be one of the main challengers to Curlin.

Happy Boy, like Jalil, is from Godolphin Stables and figures to be a main rival.  The son of Ski Champ prevailed in Group I of the Al Maktoum Challenge and has proven he can handle the Dubai track.  He’s a Brazilian bred with a lot of upside that many bettors will find reason to support on Saturday.  His only race at Nad al Sheba he won by an impressive 9 lengths.  My guess is that one of the Godolphin horses will be the main competition, I just tend to think Jalil may be the main threat with Happy Boy close behind.

In keeping with the “boy” theme, Asiatic Boy is a 5 year old son of Not for Sale that is owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum.  Asiatic Boy will be trying to become the first horse in history to win both the UAE Derby and the Dubai World Cup.  He’s trained by Mike de Kock, one of the best South African trainers in the game.  Prior to being defeated in his last start he was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad al Sheba.  Clearly he’ll be fodder for “horse for the course” type players.

Well Armed is a big, strong looking son of Tiznow.  He fractured his pelvis in the 2006 UAE Derby and spent 19 months on the bench as a result.  He’s trained by Eoin Harty, of Colonel John fame.  Lately he’s been running at Santa Anita, having finished 2nd in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap in January and then defeating the highly regarded Heatseeker in the San Antonio Handicap on February 9th.  He figures to be the possible pace of the race and should lead the field into the final turn.

Great Hunter hasn’t won a race in over a year.  At one point he managed to defeat Street Sense when they were both 2 year old’s in the 2006 Lane’s End Breeder’s Futurity.  Street Sense of course went on to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  Great  Hunter ran in the Derby but finished well out of the money.  The 4 year old son of Aptitude will be ridden by jockey Garrett Gomez, and features a late closing style that could put him at a disadvantage if no one goes after Well Armed on the lead.

Of the rest, A.P. Arrow is a Todd Pletcher trainee and 6 year old son of A.P. Indy.  I don’t really know that much about him, but my gut tells me he’s a longshot.  Gloria De Campeo has been running behind Jalil and Happy Boy in recent preps and would be something of a longshot to win, although a minor award seems possible.  I’ll just come right out and admit that I know next to nothing about Kocab, Stay Ed, and Lucky Find.  If any of them were to prevail it would be fairly big upset.

You won’t need to see a race-day update from me to know my selection.  I’m 100% behind Curlin and will be cheering my heart out for him as they turn for home.  I could see big runs from Jalil and Happy Boy, with Vermillion and Asiatic Boy being my next tier of competition.  Well Armed, as stated above, could be a handful if alone on the lead, but ultimately I think he’ll be the target that Curlin focuses on.  I look for Curlin to gun them down in the stretch and come away crowned as an international champion.  

Go get ‘em, Curlin.  It’s time to take your place as the world’s finest.


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Adriano takes command to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End

23 03 2008

Adriano pulls away in the Grade 2 Lane’s End at Turfway Park

Trainer Graham Motion may have just found himself a Kentucky Derby competitor.  Adriano, a 3 year old son of A.P. Indy, put in an impressive run over the Turfway Park synthetic track to prevail in the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes.  Motion had enticed jockey Edgar Prado to head south to Turfway Park for the event, and the veteran jockey was able to get Adriano to make his move entering the far turn.  Once asked for his run,  Adriano was able to pull away from the rest of the field, that included the hard charging Halo Najib and Medjool – who finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.  The final winning margin of 2 1/2 lengths is a bit misleading as the colt was ahead by as many as 4 lengths when Prado began to ease him up in the stretch.

The win gives Adriano enough graded earnings to seriously consider heading to Churchill the first Saturday in May to compete in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Prior to the Lane’s End, Graham Motion had been quoted as saying he wasn’t sure if the colt would be on the Derby trail even if he did win.  Once the colt made his way to the winner’s circle however, that sentiment seemed to have changed. 

Adriano returned $11.60 for the win.  The final time for the Lane’s End was 1:50.20.  

There will still be questions and concerns, as Adriano has primarily been a turf runner, and a solid run over the Turfway Park synthetic surface doesn’t really give us a clear indication of how the colt will take to a true dirt surface.  Many times horses with strong turf pedigree perform well over the synthetic surfaces, but true dirt can be a whole separate ballgame.  Other considerations will include the fact that the Lane’s End was not a particularly strong race as far as the field was concerned, but I thought Halo Najib and Medjool were running pretty well in the end and Adriano was still pulling away from them until eased up.

Will have to stay tuned to see if Motion and owners Courtlandt Farms decide to ship the colt to Kentucky.  For now we can simply imagine Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky character shouting at the top of his lungs, “Yo! Adriano did it!!!”


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Categories : Adriano, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Turfway Park

Lane’s End still anyone’s game

21 03 2008

We’ve already taken a preliminary look at the Grade 2 Lane’s End earlier in the week and identified that the race is fairly wide open from a betting perspective.  With Saturday rapidly approaching, it’s time to make the picks official and predict a winner.  I’ve seen folks going a lot of different ways in this one, from the favorite Halo Najib to longer shots such as Racecar Rhapsody an Cannonball.  The Lane’s End is a 1 1/8 mile race over the main track at Turfway Park, and will be broadcast live on ESPN at 6:00 PM EST.

I’m going to officially back Medjool for the win in this one.  I’m still concerned about the outside post position, but I like the idea that he should get a clean trip without getting into traffic trouble inside and be able to come from off the pace to score.  It’s a bit risky to back an outside post position colt that has only recently broke his maiden, but I’m not totally convinced about the form of some of the other competitors and think this race could set up in Medjool’s favor.  The son of Monarchos should handle the distance fine today and I’ll be slightly shocked if he’s not at least in the money when all is said and done.

Halo Najib is one of the horses I’ll use underneath.  He’s got the class and Beyer figures to be an obvious contender here, but that effort in the Fountain of Youth makes me hesitant to fully support him.   He should be well positioned  for Desormeaux to make a run for the money. While handicapping this race I couldn’t envision a scenario where he would finish out of the money.

Many people are selling their stock on  Turf War and writing him off as a competitor here.  I’m not quite ready to do so yet.  His effort in the Southwest was flat, but that was his first race of the year.  I agree with those that say the Delta Jackpot produced some inflated Beyer figures and that no one has returned from the field to win, but it’s not like that was his only decent race. I’m not going to support him for the win but a minor award seems quite likely.

After those front line contenders, I think players can pick from a bevy of colts underneath to help fill out their tickets, depending on how deep you want to go.  The above colts are simply my top 3.  Adriano, Racecar Rhapsody,  Cannonball, and Macho Again look like the next tier of competition.  One of them could certainly step up and steal the show today so by all means support one of them if you’ve got a feeling. 

Adriano is interesting as he has the capability to put in a late run to get into the action and potentially win the whole thing in the final furlong.  The son of A.P. Indy has attracted Edgar Prado for Saturday’s event, and I’m always respectful of the horses Graham Motion sends to post.  I’m just not sure if he’s got the turn of foot necessary to win on Saturday.  My gut tells me he’s more of a show candidate. 

Racecar Rhapsody earned selections from several of the Daily Racing Form handicappers for this race, but I’m not buying.  The Beyer Speed figures (93, 85, 87, 82) look impressive, but once again we’ve got the Delta Jackpot figure (93) potentially inflating the appearance artificially.  I’m also not that impressed with the 3rd place finish in the KJC that was won by Anak Nakal.  Besides that all we have is a pair of maiden sprints.   I could see using this one in place or show but I’m not going to advise a win selection here.

Cannonball is slightly interesting.  He’s been running into the duo of Cowboy Cal and Why Tonto the last couple of times out on the turf.  Alex Solis has taken the reins and figures to send this one out of the gate towards the front.  I’m not sure if he’ll be on the lead or not as Chitoz and Duke of de Buqe may have to gun it from the start as well, but he could find himself in a beneficial position at or near the front. The question will be whether or not he can hang on, as we’ve never seen him run on a synthetic surface yet.  I’m inclined to pass as a result even though I won’t be shocked if he’s in the money either.

I’m not really interested in Duke of de Buqe, Chitoz, Rich Young Ruler, Halo’s King, or El Aleman.  Mach Again is worth considering underneath though. I think ultimately we’re going to have to make some final opinions during the post parade as they head to the starting gate.  That being said, I still need to answer the bell here and support a ticket.

In my official ticket I’ll use Medjool for the win.  I’ll use Turf War and Halo Najib in 2nd, with those two and Adriano in third.  Like I’ve said above, feel free to toss in more horses if you can afford it as this one is a prime betting situation with many different directions for players to make their opinions known.

12/ 8, 11/ 5, 8, 11  ($4)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Turfway Park

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