This Saturday is going to be a day filled with major prep races for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. While most of the attention thus far has been focused on the prestigious Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (which features Pyro), let’s not forget that Aqueduct has a fiercely competitive prep race of it’s own in the Gotham Stakes that is shaping up to be a tough nut to crack.
The Gotham Stakes is both a prep race for the Kentucky Derby in May and the more immediate Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in April. The Grade 3 Stakes race is for $250,000 and is a 1 1/16 mile route around the main track at Aqueduct.
To my knowledge (at the time of this posting, the field has not drawn post positions yet, nor have odds been established) the field appears to have 10 entries, and you could honestly build a sane case for any of them here.
Giant Moon, a 4-0 son of Giant’s Causeway that is trained by Richard Schosberg, is likely to be the morning line favorite. He has victories in the Count Fleet Stakes and the Sleepy Hollow Stakes in his resume and has really blossomed as of late for Schosberg. In fact, I’ve seen quotes around the net from Schosberg that Giant Moon was rather lethargic when he began training and essentially came of age in the Count Fleet Stakes. This will likely be the toughest field he’s faced yet though, and Schosberg seems to appreciate this when he remarks “it’s a big field, which is a step up for us. I think it’s a wide open race with a lot of contenders that are improving. Hopefully we’re a part of that. ”
One of Giant Moon’s major competitors will be Saratoga Russell, an impressive colt that I know has captured the hearts of some of my fellow Thoroughbred Blogger’s Alliance companions. I’ve never seen him run yet myself, but it’s not hard to appreciate why they love him. He has won his last two races by a combined 18 lengths! The son of Trippi is trained by Rick Violette and is one of the more “feel good” stories of the year, as he is named in honor of a now deceased partner of West Point Stables, Russell Horvat.
Roman Emperor also has to be taken seriously here. We last saw him running well for 2nd place behind Barrier Reef in the Whirlaway Stakes and the colt seems to be improving nicely. Don’t forget that he’s got Belmont winners on both sides of his pedigree being a son of Empire Maker (2003 Belmont winner) and out of a Colonial Affair (1993 Belmont Winner) mare. My gut tells me he may be primed for a big effort this weekend.
Visionaire finished a respectable 3rd to the “new and improved Pyro” we saw on display in the Risen Star. He was only beaten by 2 1/4 lengths when all was said and done and was actually something of a late entry to the Gotham. Originally he was rumored to have been pointing to the Florida Derby or the Rebel Stakes. I like the move to enter him here and think he’s a huge threat to win the Gotham. He won’t find any monsters like Pyro to compete against this weekend, which can only boost his chances. Still not sold on Visionaire? Would it help if I pointed out that he beat the now highly regarded Elysium Fields in his maiden race? We all know how impressive Elysium Fields looked in the Fountain of Youth. Chew on that and the 2 1/4 length defeat to Pyro in the Risen Star when you handicap this race. Very interesting.
Holidaze is a Todd Pletcher trained son of Harlan’s Holiday that is stepping up from the Allowance levels. I wouldn’t discount this one totally as he proved he could win around two turns last time out and even encountered a bit of difficulty in his trip yet still wound up prevailing.
Texas Wildcatter is an improving son of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Todd Pletcher trains Texas Wildcatter, who ran third in the Whirlaway and appeared to put in a good late run when it counted. He seems to have a good deal of upside potential and shoud not be discarded in this event, as he is one of only four horses in the field (along with Giant Moon, Holidaze, and Roman Emperor) who has a win in his belt racing around 2 turns.
Eaton’s Gift last won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes for trainer Dale Romans. He’s a son of Johannesburg, but it’s interesting to note that he tired in the stretch during the Cash Call Futurity, which was run at the same distance as the Gotham (1 1/16 miles). Romans cut him back to 6 furlongs in the Swale Stakes, which seems to have done the trick. He’ll be stretching back out again today to the longer route distance. I think he’s a serious threat to be on the gas early and setting the pace, but I have trouble listing him as a contender due to the previous difficulties at this distance. He’s certainly eligible to have matured and moved forward from his try in the Cash Call Futurity, but it just feels like there are a host of other possible directions to go here that may be safer.
Ling Ling Qi is an allowance winner that I really don’t know that much about. I know he’s a half-brother to multiple Stakes winner My Great Love. He’s out of a Holy Bull mare named Holy Love and is trained by Ken McPeek. McPeek wants to test the colt and see what he’s got against some of the tougher 3 year-olds around. He may look a bit outmatched on paper, but keep in mind that he ran into traffic problems last time out at the Allowance level and still managed to fight on gamely in the stretch to prevail by a neck. He’s got huge upside potential if they can keep him on track.
Southern Terminus is another Todd Pletcher trainee that won his debut race before being defeated by the highly regarded Fierce Wind last time out as a 3/5 favorite. He was a $300,000 yearling purchase.
Stevil, a Nick Zito trainee, rounds out the field. He’s been running behind Eaton’s Gift and Visionaire in previous efforts and unless I spot something in the past-performances this weekend would appear to be hard to recommend in this field.
As you can see, it’s a difficult race to separate, but it should offer some tremendous betting value, especially for you trifecta players. I haven’t officially handicapped the race yet, but in the interests of full disclosure I’ll tell you that my gut is saying to pick Visionaire to win here. There’s raelly 4 horses I like in here that I think could win. Visionaire, Roman Emperor, Saratoga Russell, and Giant Moon. I’ll probably play against Giant Moon if he is favored though and take a shot at some longer odds. You could make a case for just about anyone else underneath in the exacta and trfiecta, but I’ll certainly cover Ling Ling Qi, Texas Wildcatter, and Holidaze. I’m not really interested in Eaton’s Gift, Southern Terminus, or Stevil at the moment.
I’ll have my full handicapping selections for the Gotham available late Friday night/early Saturday morning for any who are interested.
I like your dissection of the race. I think Giant Moon may have a problem if he can’t rate, but I have to believe that Rich Schosberg has Giant Moon prepared.
I think Pletcher will be sending 2 or 3 runners, but I don’t really consider them his first string. Likewise, Zito will be sending his 3rd string in Larry’s revenge. Visionaire is a serious horse, but I watched his last race. He had a real good trip and was not able to make up too much ground, albeit against Pyro and Z Fortune. Roman Emperor is another head scratcher. I think he will be real good in a longer race, but at 8.5 furlongs, he will be at a disadvantage.
That brings me to Saratoga Russell, my pick to win the Gotham. Saratoga Russell has shown the ability to win on the pace and being able to rate. He has terrific tactical speed and is push button. Both his jockeys (Prado and Coa) have indicated that Russell is easy to ride and is push button. In addition, Coa has remarked that Russell is not a sprinter and will be able to stretch out. Rick Violette, the conditioner, concurs. I think the fact that Coa is coming up to NY to ride speaks volume. I’m sure he had offer(s) to ride in the Louisian Derby on the same day. In fact, I think he rides Tale of Ekati regularly. Instead, he comes to Aqueduct to ride Saraoga Russell.
Last bit of opinion: It looks like the Gotham will be ran on an off track Saturday. Russell relished the slop in his last race, so any moisture in the track will prove to be advantageous for him.
Very good analysis, Thomas. I admit that I haven’t been keeping as close tabs on some of the New York horses like Giant Moon and Saratoga Russell as I’d have liked to.
I think you make excellent points about Visionaire and Roman Emperor. I know some folks that will be happy as can be if you are right about Saratoga Russell. I’m pretty sure I’ll end up using him in my selections as I’d have a hard time not backing anyone that has won so impressively in the past.
I’ll have to get a better feel for the potential pace setup when I get the PP’s. You definitely raise some good points that will have to be considered when I try and finalize my selections and attempt to narrow the field a bit.
Post position will be very important as it will dictate how some of the horses will run. The fact that Eaton’s Gift dropped out changes the race completely. I think the race will still be fast, but not crazy fast.
I just saw that about Eaton’s Gift. I didn’t like him in here anyway, but you’re right, he was a threat to set the pace right out of the gate.
When do they draw post positions? I was trying to get that info earlier and all I saw references to was ‘later in the week.” Tomorrow’s Thursday so they’ve got to be available, right?
They will draw for the Gotham Stakes Thursday early afternoon. The PP information will be available in the afternoon tomorrow. I expect about 10 horses to enter. I will be at the race.
That’s awesome Thomas! I hope you’ll stop over and offer your insights when you return. Happy betting at Aqueduct at this weekend.
So they drew the field for the Gotham. Here’s how it looks;
1) Giant Moon-Will need to run from the get go
2) Laysh Laysh Laysh-sit back chilly and be the trailer
3) Roman Emperor – Rush up with Giant Moon
4) Saratoga Russell – Gun to the front or stay with Roman Emperor, but keeing an eye on Giant Moon
5) Southern Terminus – Also on the pace and may be caught 3 wide
6) Holidaze – Saving ground and ducking to inside
7) Texas Wildcatter – Midpack
8) Larry’s Revenge – Rush up and may have the roughest trip
9) Ling Ling Qi – Also rush up, but complacent in the midpack
10) Visionaire – Midpack as well
I can see either Giant Moon or Saratoga Russell at the front after 1/2 mile, with Roman Emperor, Southern Terminus and Larry’s Revenge just behind them, followed by Ling Ling Qi, Visionaire, Holidaze, Texas Wildcatter, and Laysh Laysh Laysh trailing.
At the 6 furlong mark, some of the contenders will make moves, including Visionaire, Ling Ling Qi and Texas Wildcatter. Saratoga Russell will also be on the drive if he is not in the front already.
My feelings have not changed about Saratoga Russell. I see him drawing away at the top of the stretch with Visionaire closing, followed by Giant Moon and Ling Ling Qi to finish out the superfecta.
I think Saratoga Russell received a real good post position. He can either shoot to the front, or take back to rate 2nd or 3rd. Also with the pending bad weather and off track, that only helps him.
If my description of what will take place comes true, I should go out and buy a lottery ticket. But this is how I see it and I’m sticking to it.
You’ve made a believer out of me!
I’m probably going to advise covering Visionaire, Saratoga Russell, and Roman Emperor in the multi-race tickets. It just looks like a tough one to single on.
If I play a tri I”ll probably get brave and use Saratoga Russell alone over Visionaire, Giant Moon, and Roman Emperor over those 3 and Ling Ling Q. I may have to think about Texas Wildcatter in there for show as well.
I just hope the don’t get rained out this weekend. A lot of rain is coming.
No such thing as rainout Mike. I watched Saratoga Russell glide over the slop at Gulftream last time out. The more rain the better.
That’s the spirit, Thomas! Someone buy this man a beer!!!!
It’s a good thing I’m not putting money on this, because I like Visionaire.
Visionaire is a nice horse, but he received a bad post position, plus his trainer may scratch him if the track comes up sloppy. I believe the track will be sloppy by post time.
See you at the winner circle.
Indeed – looks like massive rains are headed our way. It’s already started here in the Baltimore area. I finally got my hands on a Saturday DRF (had to try about 4 locations as they were all sold out – found one that was “hidden” in a bin of other magazines by chance). Saratoga Russell sure does look like the horse for the off-track.
I’ll pop a beer in your honor if/when he wins.
I’ll be buying a lot of beer for everybody if he wins. I must reveal, I am a part owner of Saratoga Russell, so you may say I’m a bit biased. However, I would not tout unless I truly believe in it. I also noticed that all the writers in DRF has Russell winning the race as well, so I’m not the only one.
Thomas – that’s awesome!!! You have no idea how much of a celebrity guys like you are to us bloggers.
I have to share with you that one of my fellow TBA (Thoroughbred Blogger’s Alliance) buddies named Teresa over at the Brooklyn Backstretch blog has been in love with your colt for quite some time.
In fact, she wrote an awesome piece about him back around Valentine’s day and about how in love with him she is. If you get a spare moment, I think it would mean quite a bit to her if you stopped over and left a note. Here’s a link to the post of her’s I mentioned.
http://brooklynbackstretch.blogspot.com/2008/02/just-in-time-for-valentines-day.html
Best of luck tomorrow, Thomas. I’ll be cheering my heart out for your boy and I know Teresa will be as well.
Go get ‘em Saratoga Russell!!!!
I’ve traded e-mails with Teresa a couple of times and I read her article on Valentines Day and thought is was terrific.
From time to time, I would write in to let her know how Russell is doing, since I know that she is a big fan. I think it’s great that there are forums to write about our favorite topics. I’m always interested in hearing what others have to say about horse racing.
You and I will be cheering loudly at the top of the stretch tomorrow, as I fully expect that we will be in contention for the trophy.
I heard that there will be a big cheering crowd of over 100 for Russell at the paddock, none of which will mind a little rain, especially Russell.
I wish Pyro was in this race. What a line-up that would be. And War Pass. We’ll see War Pass in the Derby, for sure!
@Thomas – Indeed – I’ll lead the cheering contingent from Hanover, PA. You probably won’t be able to hear us all the way up in NY, but I promise we’ll be cheering for you.
@Dissfunktional – Just wait until May good buddy. Pyro’s actually running on Saturday in the Louisiana Derby, so we’ll get to see him as well. By the way, how did the move to Texas go?
I’ll be here for another two months, to finish the lease on my current arrangement. I need to locate employment in Texas before moving as well, so I’m still here, your neighbor!
I’ve been reading on Russel @ the Wespoint site, the stable that owns him.
http://www.westpointtb.com/news/article.jsp?id=10808
he’s never done two turns before. pray for an off track tomorrow, that’s what he needs, that should really help him.
Oh wow. oh wow. I know many, many folks who own race horses. Some own them outright, others own partial. I know jockeys, trainers, etc. I’ve grown up around horses, but wow… this is the big time .
On the same site where I located the above link for the stable that owns the horse Saratoga Russell, I located this:
http://www.westpointtb.com/verification.jsp?redirect=/opportunities/index.jsp
It’s a “Qualification” to be eligible to invest in their horses. One of the questions asked is whether you’re an “accredited investor”.
From the website (link above):
An accredited investor must meet at least one of the following criteria:
(a) An individual whose net worth (or joint net worth with my spouse) exceeds $1,000,000.00 (including homes, home furnishings, and automobiles)
(b) An individual who had (i) income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years (excluding any income of my spouse) or (ii) joint income with my spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of those years and I reasonably expect to reach the same income level in the current year.
(c) Is the beneficiary of a trust, with total assets in excess of $5,000,000, not formed for the specific purpose of acquiring the securities offered, whose purchase is directed by a person who has such knowledge and experience in financial and business matters that he is capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the prospective investment.
My jaw dropped. I’ve yet to pick it up. It rolled out into the living room I think.
He’s a pretty amazing horse, and I could totally see myself getting behind him if he makes a run at the roses in May. That’s one of the things I love about this game – finding horses that you can fall in love with and just cheer your guts for. He has the look of that type of competitor in him. I haven’t seen him “live” yet (only on race replays), but I can’t wait for Saturday.
Amy and I hope to one day be able to invest in a thoroughbred and West Point would probably be one of our top choices. They really seem to have their act together and have been involved with some incredible race horses. Like Thomas, we’ll be looking to do the partnership thing.
Either that or we may rescue some cheap claiming/maiden horses that nobody wants when they are older. I’ve got a soft spot for them and would like to one day save as many as I could.
I’m looking at the sites equineline.com and bloodhorse.com and researching the background on some of these horses and comparing daddy’s to each other. You’re getting me addicted. darn you!
U need Meebo!
Russell is my first horse with West Point. Can you believe my luck. People like me get into the game because of love of the animals and the joy of competition. At the end of the day, I realize that this is not an investment, but a hobby that I actively participate in.
You are right about West Point. They are a class act from top down. The management team treats each partner as an individual and they are the first ones to tell you that it’s a tough game. They never sell their product as an investment. Rather, they sell the experience. So far, the experience has been an A++ for me. If I want to visit my horses, I pretty much tell them and then show up. The trainers that they predominantly work with, Kiaran McLaughlin and Rick Violette, are awesome. They make time to talk with you about your horses. As an owner, you also get to watch horses train in the track backside in the morning. Some of the best times I’ve had are on the back side of Saratoga Race Course 7 in the morning. You also get some betting tips from the horse handlers.
I agree with dissfunktional that Saratoga Russell has never gone 2 tuns before in a race, and on top of that,, his sire, Trippi, is a sprinting specialist. Nothing on paper indicates that Russell will be effective around 2 turns. What I can tell you is that both the trainer and the jockey feel that Russell will run 2 turns. That’s good enough for me. I am not the guy that works with the animal on a daily basis, so I’ll leave it up to the experts to tell me. I think by the end of the 9th race tomorrow, you and I will know if Russell can handle a distance of ground.
I just saw a Gotham Stakes Preview Video on http://www.kentuckyderby.com They mentioned Giant Moon and Visionaire as the obvious two to watch, but the reporter mentioned that he is more interested in watching what Saratoga Russell can do. I got a kick out of that.
Saratoga Russell has never been past 7F, he does not have what it will take to hold off Visionaire in the stretch.
@Dissfunktional – Yeah!!!! That’s been my goal all along! Mwahahahahaha! It is highly addictive. Like Thomas mentions, the competition is just so amazing.
@ Thomas – I love the TV commercial for West Point that features the guy leaving the screaming voice mail message as his horse wins it’s first race. Sends chills up my spine.
@Maximus – I think everyone understands the concern, but let’s be honest here – horses win doing new things for the first time all the time in thoroughbred racing, whether it be adding blinkers, trying lasix, going from sprint to route or vice versa. It’s hard to ignore that he handles the wet track well. I think highly of Visionaire, but I won’t knock a horse in the stretch that has won as impressively as Saratoga Russell…..especially not when we’ve got first hand opinion on display here from someone that actually talks with the trainer as opposed to guys like me that just read the DRF.
Go take a look at Visionaire’s Allowance win at GS, Saratoga Russell can’t handle that in the stretch, he will need a huge lead. Visionaire is a very versatile horse that will run well whatever the track conditions.
Go take a look at Visionaire’s Allowance win at GS, Saratoga Russell can’t handle that in the stretch, he will need a huge lead. Visionaire is a very versatile horse that will run well whatever the track conditions.
Visionaire is going to scratch if it’s a sloppy track; it’s been raining all night. We’ll see what horses make it to the line up tomorrow!
Kstafford, thank you for your kind words. I know the commercial that you are talking about. That person reminds me of me. I am 38 years old. When I’m watching my horse run, I turn into a 12 year old, at least that’s what my wife says. I remember when Saratoga Russell broke his maiden in Aqueduct in December. Rick Violette asked Eibar Coa to rate and let Saratoga Russell get some dirt kicked in his face. It was basically a training session for future benefits. I don’t know if you remember the race. At the top of the stretch, Eibar Coa decided that class is over and shot him through the inside to draw away. For young horses, threading a needle on the rail is a frightening thing, so I think Saratoga Russell learned a lot that day, and one day, that lesson will come in handy. I bring up this story to illustrate your point that horses do new things for the first time all the time.
When partners like me bump into Rick Violette, they alwasy want to know if Russell will be able to stretch out in distance. I don’t ask those type of questions because I know the answer…..nobody knows until the horse actually does it. All you can do is go with you gut. Our gut tells us that he can do it.
Because of the bad post position, Michael Matz, the trainer for Visionaire, said that he might scratch if the track comes up sloppy. That doesn’t sound like he has a lot of confidence in Visionaire handling off track.
I like your style, Thomas. That’s exacly how I’d be if I was in your shoes. I appreciate both your love of your colt and your honesty about his chances.
I think very highly of Visionaire and agree with Maximus that he’s a versatile horse, but this does look like one that Matz might want pass on. It’ll be tough though. Sometimes that chance at nice purse is too tough to pass up, but I suspect he knows he has a good one and won’t want to waste him.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that besides Saratoga Russell, if Visionaire were to scratch the horse that might benefit the most is Ling Ling Qi. I think suddenly his chances at making a good run with Giant Moon and Roman Emperor would be boosted.
I’d love to make an informed, relevant comment but I’m way out of my league. I will however partake of that celebratory beer if your horse wins, Thomas!
Thank you everybody…..I’ll be back to give my after the race thoughts tomorrow!!!!
For Anok not to have something informed or relevant to say, I’d say she’s gotten into the beer already.
Best wish Thomas. You know I’m going to be trying to figure out which guy is you if you make it to the winner’s circle.
If Giant Moon is contested on the lead, I like Roman Emperor. When he was beat by Giant Moon two races back, he was well off the slow 48:1 pace. The fresh leaders turned up the heat at the end finishing the mile and seventy in a fast 1:41, making any rally by Roman Emperor impossible. In his last, he equaled Giant Moon’s 93 Beyer figure while staying close to a slow pace. Provided the pace is contested today, Roman Emperor should be able to get a nice ground saving trip and make a nice rally.
The thing that scares me is I suspect Saratoga Russell may be rated off the lead which could essentially give the race to Giant Moon.
gallery of sex thumb and movie
Oh great – just what a horse racing blog needs – “gallery of sex thumb and movie.”
What exactly is a “sex thumb?” No, wait, don’t bother answering that. I’d prefer to remain clueless in that regard.