We’ve got 48 days until the “greatest two minutes in sports” with the running of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Obviously there’s been some shakeups this week. The unbeatable War Pass got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Sierra Sunset and Georgie Boy made impressive moves to win the Rebel Stakes and the San Felipe Stakes, respectively.
So where does this all leave us? Well, I’ve locked myself away in the study and have spent hours going over the info in an attempt to rank the contenders as they stand today, the 16th of March. What follows is a bit of an expanded rankings list from what you may be used to. In keeping with the theory that ”bigger is better”, I’ve attempted to feed your desire for more information by numerically ranking the top 15 contenders as opposed to just the top 10. As we get closer to Derby week, I plan on expanding further to a top 20 list.
Without further adieu, let’s let the discussion begin. All of the content you see below is also found on my main Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings page. I’m using the “more” tag (as in “click here to read the rest of this post) as the load times are starting to get a bit longer thanks to the inclusion of so many youtube videos and pictures. I remain committed nonetheless to giving you guys as much information as I can in one concise location to help make your own evaluations. As always, I’d love to hear your own thoughts and opinions. Read the rest of this entry »
Sierra Sunset leads the field through the final turn and never looks back to win the 2008 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Sierra Sunset added his name to the growing list of Kentucky Derby contenders when the the three year old son of Bertrando held on to win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The Rebel is an important prep race for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, having produced eventual 2007 Preakness winner Curlin last year.
Calvin Borel and Sacred Journey shot out to a quick lead and led the field into the final turn setting quick fractions along the way. Christopher Emigh, who was piloting Sierra Sunset for trainer Jeff Bondee, was content to allow the colt the stalk beautifully behind Sacred Journey for most of the race. Moving into the final turn, Emigh and Sierra Sunset took the lead from Sacred Journey almost effortlessly as Isabull and He’s Eze were also putting in their runs.
The end of the race featured a very impressive move from a rather obscure Steve Asmussen trainee named King Silver’s Son, who shot from the back of the pack and was moving just as well as Sierra Sunset late finish 3 lengths behind the winner. You may have seen Ron Correll mention that horse in a comment on my pre-race writeup and handicapping selections. If I say it once I’ll say it a thousand times, that guy knows what he’s talking about and the colt sure looked impressive to me. He’s one to keep an eye on next time he runs if he can get a better trip.
As for Sierra Sunset, in a way his win could potentially be seen as flattering for some of the CA horses, as he had previously competed and been unable to get up for even a small slice in the Cash Call Futurity and the San Rafeal Stakes. My advice though is to not get too crazy about trying to read a whole lot into that. I think it’s a simple case of the horse seeming to prefer dirt over the synthetic surfaces, which if anything would really only further muddy the picture. It’s still going to be a risk trying to determine how the CA group stacks up unless one or more (Georgie Boy?) come east for a significant prep race in April.
The 4/5 post time favorite (and my pre-race selection), Z Fortune didn’t run a particularly good race here, which is a bit disconcerting. After having finished sandwiched between Pyro and Visionaire in the Risen Star, who both returned to win their next prep attempts, he was seemingly never involved finishing 5th today. Likewise, Anak Nakal continued to disappoint in his 2nd attempt of the 2008 season, finishing 7th of 9. Sacred Journey came in last after setting the opening fractions.
Bonde is reported as indicating that Sierra Sunset will next be seen in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which could put him against Georgie Boy and other top contenders on April 12th. The Arkansas Derby is a very prestigious prep race with a cool $1 million purse.
I’ll have my Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings updated tonight. Stay tuned to see the shakeups following Saturday’s action. When coupled with his 2nd place finish to Denis of Cork in his previous race, Sierra Sunset should obviously be taken quite seriously as a legit contender.
Georgie Boy finds running room to the outside in the stretch and guns down Bob Black Jack and Gayego to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday.
Georgie Boy made a case for himself to be considered the top 3 year old on the California circuit with an impressive win in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita against the speedy Bob Black Jack and Gayego. The win was the third in a row for the colt trained by Kathy Walsh and came on the heels of his earlier victories in the Del Mar Futurity and San Vicente Stakes.
As expected, Bob Black Jack shot out to the lead and set the pace virtually the entire way around the track. Gayego was right behind him though and seemed intent on applying as much pressure as he could. Georgie Boy tucked himself into 3rd and was not asked for anything while moving comfortably the entire trip. The rest of the field would remain behind these three the entire race, with High Stakes Silver being the only one that really got close into 4th around the 2nd turn.
As the field turned for home, Bob Black Jack and Gayego reached down inside to look for more, and each colt actually responded to their rider’s calls quite well as they continued to fight one. Georgie Boy was desperately seeking running room at the top of the stretch and had to shoot to the outside of Bob Black Jack and Gayego before being able to put in his run. For a moment it looked like he was thinking about splitting Bob Black Jack and Gayego, but when High Stakes Silver started to fade just to his outside, Georgie Boy took advantage by swinging out and engaging the leaders. When jockey Michael Baze asked him for all he had, he responded by exploding past the front runners, finishing in front by 3/4 of a length over a rather determined Gayego. Bob Black Jack held on for show honors. The final time of the San Felipe was 1:42.35.
What can we take from this race? Well, obviously the whole scene with the California 3 year olds still has some drama left to be played out, as right now it’s debatable on where to rank Colonel John, El Gato Malo, and Georgie Boy. I’ll say this, even though I’ve been higher on the Colonel and the Bad Cat most of the year, this makes two very impressive wins in a row for Georgie Boy who now deserves serious consideration as the top west coast 3 year old. Hopefully we’ll get a look at all of them together in the Santa Anita derby next month. It’s still going to be a nightmare tyring to anticipate how these guys will stack up against the rest of the competition on a true dirt track come Kentucky Derby week, but one gets the feeling that we do have some contenders out west. Complicating things slightly are the rumors that Georgie Boy may be considering a run in the Arkansas Derby rather than the Santa Anita Derby. To be honest though, that move would probably make more sense from a preparation for the Kentucky Derby standpoint.
Let’s not totally discount the performances by Gayego or Bob Black Jack either. Gayego in particular fought on very well while handling the added distance of the San Felipe for the first time and ran well enough to win. Likewise, I thought Bob Black Jack handled himself nicely considering the added distance. I was actually a bit shocked he had enough fight in him to keep it close with Gayego in the stretch while Georgie Boy was making his move.
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