Every year we go through this ritual. Twenty or so of the finest 3 year olds in the nation gather for the prestigious running of the Kentucky Derby, and all of us handicappers rush out to make our selections and identify “our horse” that we will back and support for the race.
When we pick right, we look like geniuses. When wrong, we look like buffoons. More often then not, we do pick wrong. It’s only logical that with a 1 in 20 shot in such fields that you’re bound to wind up on more wrong picks than right. Those few occasions where you do pick the right horse publicly become moments in time that are impossible to forget and fill our hearts with a sense of satisfaction and pride.
I’m a guy that lives and dies a bit too much on pride. I’ve got many friends that will ask me casually about horse racing as the Derby approaches, and nearly all want to know “who’s going to win?” Trying to make them understand that the best you can do is reduce the field to likely contenders and then pick from there seems to meet with looks of disbelief. Attempts to rationalize the difficulty involved reach some, but not all.
As an avid football fan, I challenge folks that most fans aren’t able to correctly predict the Super Bowl winner – even when it’s reduced down to just two teams. I mean c’mon – you’ve got a 50/50 shot there and most experts can’t even pick that right. What’s a lowly horseplayer to do when they’re down to a 1 in 20 shot? Case in point would be this past Super Bowl. While much of the “smart” betting money was indeed on the Giants (due to their ability to “cover the spread” as opposed to the Patriots seeming inability to do so down the stretch), you’d be hard pressed to find folks that could seriously articulate to you “how” the Giants might be able to pull it off. On paper it seemed a slam dunk.
Imagine then, if you will, how difficult it is to select a single winner from a field of 20 top notched contenders. Do you go with the best horse overall? Do you attempt to predict the pace setup of the race and see who “should” benefit the most? Is your conscience and reasoning affected by a “what have you done for me lately” syndrome, whereby only recent winners register in your mind, and the heroics of February and March seem too distant to recall? Complicating matters further is that many passionate fans have already started to identify with one horse or another. This is fantastic from a fan standpoint, as nothing brings more joy than being able to cheer your heart out for a particular horse (much like my fetish/infatuation/obsession/however you choose to classify it with Curlin), but betting with your heart can be a recipe for disaster, as all too many horseplayers know all too well.
So what am I rambling about this for now? Well, it’s that time of year and I’m being asked by many people who “my horse” is. The sad truth is that I don’t really have a single horse. I’m actually stuck between 4 horses that I’m convinced the winner will come from, barring some horrible post position scenario.
The 4 I’m stuck on would be Big Brown, Gayego, Pyro, and Colonel John. These just seem to be the best 4 in my opinion, and I must confess that I’d be shocked if the winner was someone else. That being said, you can’t go out and publicly predict 4 winners of a single race – and therein lies the trap. How, once reduced to 4, can you attempt to separate further without inviting disaster?Tread carefully, ye of little resolve. For the path to horseplayer glory is littered with the carcasses of those who have tried in vein before you. Personally I can draw little confidence from my own track record. I bet against Street Sense last year. I was a Bandini fan a few years back. It gets even more embarrassing (trust me) the further back you go.
The answer for the moment is that you simply can’t pick a horse yet. It’s still too early. The field hasn’t been finalized. We’ve got several workouts pending, and of course there’s the dreaded post position draw. I’m still of the opinion that drawing the 2 hole last year destroyed any chance my beloved Curlin had of winning. I love how the announcers on ESPN will still reference his 3rd place finish in a field of 20 and say confidently that it “proves” that a green horse is a risk in the Derby. Fiddlesticks, I say. Sure experience matters, but the game seems to be changing and they don’t run these colts as often as they used to. I just don’t think you can toss a talent like Curlin last year, or Big Brown this year on grounds of inexperience alone. As I say that, realize that in watching Curlin’s Preakness run last year, I do think he still looked “green” at times. I remember thinking then “if that horse ever puts it all together – watch out!!”
What this means to me is that Big Brown has to be considered a serious favorite here. His win in the Florida Derby looks to me like it would’ve left everyone else running for place and show, no matter who else had been in the field. Of course, we won’t be betting on the Florida Derby come May 3, so it’s still possible that a pace duel or the aforementioned post position draw could spell doom for the highly touted colt. I just think he is “the best” of the field and deserves to be the favorite.
Looking at the other contenders on my short list, I’m a guy that is probably a bit biased in favor of the California horses. No doubt this is due to the fact that I wager so frequently on Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, and Del Mar, and as such have a much stronger feeling of familiarity with the west coast colts. All year long I’ve had to defend my rankings of Colonel John, Gayego, even El Gato Malo at times (who yes, I admit, I was too high on). Maybe I’m letting this familiarity cloud my judgement, but I’ve been impressed with Colonel John and Gayego each time they’ve stepped on the track. I just can’t discount them. Gayego is always involved in the outcome, and Colonel John has so much fight and determination in his heart that It’s almost impossible not to cheer for him. I’ve even confessed in earlier comments that I’ve been swayed a bit recently by a dream I had following a flight to Los Angeles last week, in which I saw Gayego surge to the front and take the race. Me? Superstitious? Say it ain’t so, Kev…..say it ain’t so! 
Pyro is another I just don’t think we can toss. He had a bit of a strange workout this week with ominous signs for those that look for such things. It was shrouded in fog and trainer Steve Asmussen was unable to judge just how fast he had actually worked. All this will likely add to the mystery of the colt that not long ago was thought to be the consensus favorite heading into Derby weekend. Has he really fallen that far? I for one am not even considering his Blue Grass effort, which was dismal. There’s a laundry list of horses that for whatever reason didn’t fire at Keeneland this year – including Pyro, Proud Spell, Country Star, and Panty Raid (coincidentally, and invoking my juvenile sense of humor – is that not one of the best names for a horse you’ve ever heard?). My heart tells me that we’ve got to chalk it up to the surface. Am I concerned? Of course I am, but I think we must also remember that his runs in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star were only outdone (and even that is a matter of opinion) by Big Brown in the Florida Derby. Might we really get a colt with such credentials as the third of fourth betting option in the Derby? It’s possible. Maybe not likely, but possible, and obviously such value would be very attractive to players looking to make a splash.
So where does this leave us? Well, for the moment, if you’re going to make me commit to a single horse, I suppose it will be Big Brown. I know, I can already hear it. I love chalk. What can I say? I was simply blown away in the Florida Derby and remember telling myself “don’t be a fool and bet against this guy come Derby day!” That being said, my heart pick would Gayego, and my gut is telling me not to count out the Colonel or Pyro.
So many choices, so little time. With less than two weeks to go in the Derby, I’m curious who many of you are backing. One horse per person – let’s hear your Derby picks now, with the caveat that you may reserve the right to change them once the field and post positions are set. So who ya takin?
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