Big news this Saturday on the Kentucky Derby front. One time favorite War Pass, who has had a 3 year old season from hell, has been declared officially OUT for the Kentucky Derby. Nick Zito indicates the colt has a minor leg fracture and will be out until the fall.
This would appear to make Big Brown a sure thing lock as favorite on May 3 in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, and rightfully so. If all goes well Big Brown may be able to get loose on the lead, with perhaps some pace pressure from Bob Black Jack and/or Recapturetheglory.
That means the other contenders, specifically Colonel John, Gayego, and Pyro, will have to run down Big Brown in the stretch. Judging by the way he pulled away in the Florida Derby, that will be no easy task.
Adding to the intrigue of Saturday’s racing action is the fact that ESPN has just reported the connections to top 3 year old fillies Proud Spell and Eight Belles are “strongly considering a run in the Kentucky Derby.” I’ve actually been hoping quietly that this would happen for quite some time. Throughout much of the 3 year old campaign the fillies have been running just as good as, if not clearly better than the colts. With Rags to Riches triumph in the Belmont last year, I doubt anyone will be taking them lightly.
It’s starting to get interesting folks! Get ready for more drama as the field becomes more clear in the coming weeks. Post positions may be absolutely crucial in this one, but War Pass’s departure has clearly shaken things up beyond what we expected.
In other racing news, Behindatthebar won for Todd Pletcher over the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. I’m not that impressed though. It’s good to see Pletcher get on a roll lately and certainly that bodes well for a horse like Monba, but two of his runners in both Behindatthebar and Cowboy Cal look more like types that would appreciate a synthetic surface than the true dirt.
Also, in a gorgeous day of racing at Old Hilltop in Baltimore, Icabad Crane took the Federico Tessio Stakes. While this doesn’t have any implications for the Kentucky Derby, the winner of the Tessio is often entered in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
Once again, one thing is for sure. It’s going to be a bitch ranking the three year old’s this weekend. I’ll give you guys a teaser since I saw all the ESPN analysts giving out their “top 5″ colts after the Coolmore.
- Big Brown - I just don’t think anyone’s going to catch him. Only a poor post position draw to either the inside of another speed horse (Bob Black Jack or possibly Recapturetheglory), or an extreme wide position - which would have to be something wider than the 12 hole that he already destroyed a field from in the Florida Derby - would be able to stop him. Looks a sure thing to me.
- Gayego - Could easily see him just outside Big Brown and he would love to get a speed duel in front of him, but he could also get too close to the pace though. He may be the wild card.
- Pyro - I’m not counting him out. Forget what you saw in the Toyota Blue Grass and instead remember what you saw in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. I’m looking for a comeback.
- Colonel John - just outside the top 3 and to give you an indication of how close he is, I bang my head against the wall deciding between him, Pyro, and Gayego. He’s the last of the colts I don’t think you can count out. The winner SHOULD be one of these 4 unless something crazy happens and they were to draw the 17 -20 holes.
- Monba - I’ve been moving him up in my mind and he’s finally overtaken Tale of Ekati on my rankings. You just can’t keep Pletcher totally out of the Derby, can you? Monba seems to be his best shot.
I’ll tell you that subconsciously I’m considering moving Pyro to #2 and Gayego to #3. Part of my reasoning is that Pyro used to be my #1, and if I’m really serious about tossing his Blue Grass effort, than he should be #2. There’s also a crazy “x-factor” going on my mind though. While I was in California I actually dreamed that Gayego won the Derby by passing just off the rail to catch 2 speed horses to his front. I know, I know - what the heck am I doing referencing an admitted dream here? Well, to be honest, if he were to somehow do it and I didn’t tell you about the dream, I’d be kicking myself for life.
Still, I think it’s Big Brown’s to lose, and the others are going to have to pray for a disadvantageous post draw. Barring such a situation, they will need to show up with the race of their lives to catch him.
Welcome Back,
Gotta see what that Beyer is. Could be a lock on Big Brown though Kevin. Not a Derby you want to see, favorite wise I mean.
BAKIN
lets see, your dream and my futures bets, perfect together.
so rooms in lexington are $3000 per night and big brown as
the favorite will have history as the favorite against him. i’m sorry
war pass and the other fella are out as they could have pumped the
odds making gayego an even more rewarding bet. you realize this horse
has had just 5 life time starts and has only succumbed once to a soft
poly track and the other time to human error?
racing luck and mike smith say this horse is destiny. furthermore
he is a LOCK @ 1 1/16 in Johnwatersland.
Lol, every time I go on here it seems like you guys are speaking another language
I don’t understand other sports talk either…
Hi, Kevin, how’s it going? Did you ever read my response to your last post regarding taking care of yourself as this is going to be a bad year for horse signs? (I discovered how to answer posts by editing original posts and maybe you never got my response. I also found out how to increase the number of viewable comments.)
My friend who is a horse says that she is having the worst year ever! Hope yours is faring much better.
Man…looks like I’ve been slacking on my replies to comments here. My apologies guys.
@Kanadianbacon - Big Brown does appear to be a worthy favorite now. Still, I have a feeling we’ll get some good drama leading up to the Derby. It won’t be like last year, but their will be plenty of folks shying away from a Derby favorite with just 3 races under his belt (doubt I’ll be one of them though - he just looks too impressive). Post position draw could make or break his chances. I’m still convinced the 2 hole did Curlin in last year.
@ Paul - glad to hear at least one person won’t think I’m crazy. It’s very hard to “rank” #’s 2, 3, and 4 in my opinion as you could have Colonel John, Pyro, and Gayego in any of those spots in my opinion. It may get a bit more interesting if Eight Belles and Proud Spell toss their hats into the ring though. What a story it would be if a filly won the Derby?
@ Zenca - LOL - that just means I’ve been slacking. I’m supposed to be making it easier for outsiders to understand the game and the terminology. Give me two days of undivided attention and I’d turn you into a horse player for sure! Will you at least be watching the Derby in two weeks (May 3)? You’ve got to - it will all start to make sense then.
I actually hadn’t seen your reply. Kind of lost track of my comments across other blogs when WP did the whole re-engineering of our dashboards here. It’s been a rough year for horses indeed.
How about you just add a note at the end of every post: “Put $10 on so-and so-horse for such and such to win” (or whatever the terminology is) for us horse racing newbies? Just kidding! I’m not that interested in the gambling part, just nice to watch horses. They’re such beautiful animals.
Besides, I’m more of a learn by seeing, hearing and asking questions type of person AND not by reading (which is unfortunate as I have bought many astrology books recently… lol)
I’m still getting used to the new WordPress–the Tag box is irritating as I repeat a lot of tags, but I guess that is my main complaint so it’s not too bad.
Hope the year gets better for you. Remember to stay positive and things can’t get you down!
I’m actually the same way, Zenca. That’s one of the reasons I’m so fond of journalists/public handicappers like Ron Correll of the State Journal-Register and always link back to him where I can. The guy taught me so much by patiently answering all of my off-the-wall questions.
I’m starting to rethink my use of tags/categories as well and may spend a healthy weekend updating mine. It’d be a huge undertaking though. Not really sure I’m up for it. I’m definitely using more tags now than before as they do seem to drive google traffic.
I’ll always stay positive, buddy. Here’s hoping your year has been a bit better as well. It had been tough treading from where we last left off.