THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

This week brought more shakeups to the list.  War Pass is officially off the Derby trail with an injury.  Speculation is swirling that top fillies Eight Belles and Proud Spell may enter into the Derby field.  I’m waiting for an official announcement before I rank them, but needless to say they’d make an instant impact.

Behindatthebar took the Coolmore Lexington to give Todd Pletcher, who just a few weeks ago was on the verge of being shut out of the Kentucky Derby, 3 entries in the run for the roses.  The field is really starting to take shape.  I won’t make an official “pick” until post positions are drawn and we get a chance to see a few more workouts.  Here’s how they stack up in my mind:

1. Big Brown

• Owner: Pegasus Holdings Group Stables
• Trainer:Richard Dutrow
• Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
• Sire: Boundary
• Dam: Mien
• Notes: The lightly raced colt is 3 for 3 lifetime and has the horse racing world buzzing with his win  in the Florida Derby. Prior to that he crushed a field of allowance runners in  a 12 3/4 length victory at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08, earning a 104 Beyer speed rating.  His dominance in the Florida Derby vaults him all the way to #1 on my list. That run looked like the most impressive by a 3 year old I’ve seen since Curlin.  Watching him win from the extreme outside (12) hole, it seemed clear to me that for the moment he is the best in the nation.  He’s had well documented foot problems in the past, so durability may be a concern. Likewise, if there’s a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby, he may have that to contend with as well.  What I saw in the Florida Derby was a colt that will run anyone right out of their shoes. Big Brown worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 at Palm Meadows on 4/18.  Now that War Pass is out I think this guy is the clear choice favorite.   

Big Brown blows away Allowance competition at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08

Big Brown crushes a field of top ranked competitors in the G1 Florida Derby 3/29/08

2. Gayego 

• Owner:Cubanacan Stables
• Trainer:Paulo Lobo
• Jockey:Mike Smith
• Sire: Gilded Time
• Dam: Devil’s Lake
• Notes:  Proved he was for real with an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on 4/12/08 over Z Fortune.  Prior to that had been  the winner of the San Pedro Stakes on 1/20 at Santa Anita, setting a new track record at 6 furlongs (1:13.07).  Ran strongly for 2nd behind Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes after battling it out with Bob Black Jack. Gayego finished better than Bob Black Jack that day. He’s vaulting up my rankings because he’s a horse that I truly believe can sit just off the pace in the Derby and look to get first pounce on the speed to his front.  I think he can handle being close to a hot pace and I like the way he dug to win the Arkansas Derby.  I’ll probably catch some serious flak for ranking him so high, but I’m going to trust my eyes on this one.  I think he’s a major player come May 3 in the Derby.  I’m torn between Gayego, Pyro, and Colonel John for the 2, 3, and 4 positions on this list.

Gayego finishes 2nd behind Georgie Boy but in front of Bob Black Jack in the San Felipe Stakes on 3/15/08 at Santa Anita

Gayego holds off Z Fortune to prevail in the Arkansas Derby on 4/12/08 at Oaklawn Park.

3. Pyro

• Owner:  Winchell Thoroughbreds, L.L.C
• Trainer:Steve Asmussen
• Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
• Sire:  Pulpit
• Dam: Wild Vision
• Notes: Has some questions to answer after his failure in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on 4/12 at Keeneland, but I’m willing to be forgiving since that was on Polytrack and he didn’t look like he took to the surface very well.  Dirt is another story with Pyro and I’m expecting him to bounce back just fine.  His late running style could give him some trouble in the Derby if he’s too far behind, but then again more speed seems to be entering into the field now – which should help improve his chances.  Earlier in the year he was the consensus most impressive 3 year old in the nation following his sensational wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.  Prior to that he had battled with War Pass finishing a distant 2nd in multiple tries, but closing ground on the front runner nonetheless.  We’ll see if Asmussen can get him back on track in time for the Derby. 

Pyro wins the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with a huge surge late in the stretch.

Pyro pulls away in the Louisiana Derby on 3/8/08.

4.  Colonel John

• Owner:  WinStar Farms
• Trainer:Eoin Harty
• Jockey:Corey Nakatani
• Sire:  Tiznow
• Dam: Sweet Damsel
• Notes:The son of Tiznow has displayed a tremendous amount of heart already in his young career.  He’s the kind of horse that can really make things exciting for his supporters as he explodes with late stretch bursts that are incredibly fun to watch. Way back as a 2 year old in the Cashcall Futurity he finished 2nd to Into Mischief, but was probably the best horse of the race as he fought through traffic from a nearly impossible position. In the Real Quiet Stakes we saw him explode from 4th to 1st in one move to prevail.  He returned totriumph in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1st against the highly regarded El Gato Malo. Scored another impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/5/08.  I’ve got his Santa Anita Derby replay below, and you’d be advised to review it – especially the last 20 seconds or so – to see what I’m getting at.  Next stop: the Kentucky Derby.  I’ve moved Gayego ahead of him, which was a decision I agonized over quite a bit – but don’t count out the Colonel come Derby day – he’s a fighter for sure. The Colonel worked 4 furlongs in 47.40 at Santa Anita on 4/14.

Colonel John holds off El Gato Malo to win the Grade 3 Sham Stakes 

Colonel John comes flying late to catch Bob Black Jack in the G1 Santa Anita Derby 4/5/08

5. Monba

• Owner: Starlight Stables
• Trainer:Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: Edgar Prado
• Sire: Maria’s Mon
• Dam: Hamba
• Notes:  I really like the way this colt came back to life in the Blue Grass Stakes.  He looked like he was back in perfect form running down Cowboy Cal in the stretch.  Prior to that the colt was dinged up and required surgery for a breathing problem following a last place finish as the post time favorite in the Fountain of Youth.  If he can run on dirt the way he did over the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Blue Grass, he’ll be a factor in the Derby.

Monba runs away with the Blue Grass Stakes on 4/12/08 at Keeneland

6. Court Vision

• Owner:IEAH Stables & WinStar Farms L.L.C.
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Jockey: Julien Leparoux
• Sire: Gulch
• Dam: Weekend Storm
• Jockey: J. Leparoux
• Notes: Ran a little flat in the Fountain of Youth in February, but prior to that had looked impressive as a 2 year old while winning the G2 Remsen Stakes and G3 Iroquois Stakes. Had suicide fractions set by War Pass to run into during the Wood Memorial (in part helped by his stable mate and fellow Bill Mott trainee Inner Light), but was unable to catch either War Pass or eventual winner Tale of Ekati. I’m not sure he’s quick enough to ever beat some of the higher ranked horses, but he’s got enough earnings to qualify for the Derby and looks like one of those horses you’d have to consider using underneath in the trifecta if we get the pace setup we’re expecting.  Court Vision clocked a head turning workout of 4 furlongs in 46.20 at Churchill Downs on 4/17.  Perhaps Mott has him peaking at the right time?

Court Vision overcomes some trouble to defeat Big Truck and others in the G2 Remsen in 2007 at Aqueduct.

7. Z Fortune

• Owner: Zayat Stables
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Jockey: Garrett Gomez
• Sire: Siphon
• Dam:Fortunate Faith
• Notes:Winner of the G3 Lecomte Stakes very early in the year, he returned to finish 2nd behind Pyro in the Risen Star. Based on that performance, he was favored in the Rebel Stakes, where he ran extremely flat in a disappointing defeat.  Up and down style of colt proved that he was a  Derby contender by running gamely after Gayego in the Arkansas Derby, finishing 2nd.  Next stop will be the Kentucky Derby.  

Z Fortune’s triumph in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1/12/08

8. Smooth Air

• Owner:  Mount Joy Stables
• Trainer:Bennie Stutts
• Jockey: Manny Cruz
• Sire: Smooth Jazz
• Dam: Air France
• Notes:Winner of the 7 furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park on 1/5, proved he could handle 1 1/8 miles running behind the impressive Big Brown in the Florida Derby.  Next up will be the Kentucky Derby as he’s already secured enough winnings to ensure placement.  I don’t think he’ll wind up as one of the stronger win candidates, but he certainly likes to hang around and has the look of a guy that could help get a price in exactas and trifectas.  Smooth Air worked 7 furlongs in 1:25.80 at Calder on 4/19.

Smooth Air wins the 7 furlong Hutcheson Stakes on 1/5/08.

 9. Tale of Ekati

• Owner: Charles Fipcke
• Trainer: Barclay Tagg
• Jockey: Edgar Prado
• Sire: Tale of the Cat
• Dam: Silence Beauty
• Notes:Folks might remember Tale of Ekati from my rankings earlier in the year.  I started out very high on the classy son of Tale of the Cat, but then he took some time off and failed to fire in his return in the Louisiana Derby.  It turns out he had some trouble getting caught on the starting gate in the Louisiana Derby, and trainer Barclay Tagg thinks we can scratch that race. Tale of Ekati confirmed Tagg’s thoughts by going out and catching the vaunted War Pass in the closing strides of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on 4/5/08.  Keep an eye on this guy.  It’s not only his class and ability, but like Pyro he’d appreciate a good pace to run at in the Kentucky Derby.  I still think Pyro is the better at closing into the pace, but depending on post positions and the size of the field, it’s not unreasonable to imagine Tale of Ekati getting a nice trip and trying pounce on the leaders late.  We’ll find out on May 3 in the Kentucky Derby.  Tale of Ekati worked 4 furlongs in 49.20 at Keeneland on 4/17.

Tale of Ekati catches a tiring War Pass in the G1 Wood Memorial on 4/5/08

 10. Visionaire 

• Owner: Team Valor International and Vision Racing
• Trainer: Michael Matz
• Jockey:Jose Lezcano
• Sire: Grand Slam
• Dam: Scarlet Tango
• Notes: Ran a game third behind Pyro in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February.  Returned to prevail in the Grade 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/8/08 when he nipped Texas Wildcatter at the wire.  The colt came from out of nowhere (literally, considering the dense cloud cover) to prevail in the Gotham.  Michael Matz had chosen the Gotham in favor of the Louisiana Derby as he felt it was an easier assignment for the developing colt. He returned to run 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes, which was better than any of the other dirt specialists (Pyro, Cool Coal Man, etc).  Visionaire will probably appreciate the switch back to dirt for the Derby. 

Visionaire wins a fog shrouded edition of the Gotham Stakes on 3/8/08

11. Cool Coal Man

• Owner: Robert Lapenta
• Trainer: Nick Zito
• Jockey:Kent Desormeaux
• Sire: Mineshaft
• Dam: Coral Sea
• Notes: Won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes off of what appeared to be a perfect stalking trip.  He failed to fire in the Blue Grass Stakes on 4/12 at Keeneland, but like Pyro and VIsionaire, I’m willing to chalk that up to the synthetic surface.  Could be a player in the Derby if he could revert back to his stalk and pounce style that brought him home in the Fountain of Youth, but others clearly rank higher at the moment. Cool Coal Man becomes Nick Zito’sbest chance in the Derby with the recent defection of War Pass.

Cool Coal Man uses a perfect stalking trip to win the Fountain of Youth on 2/24/08

12. Bob Black Jack

• Owner:Jeff Harmon & Tim Kasparoff
• Trainer:Tim Kasparaoff
• Jockey: David Flores
• Sire: Stormy Jack
• Dam: Molly’s Prospector
• Notes: Colt set the world record with a 1:06.53 romp in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita on 1/26/08.  I thought he was a pure sprinter until he showed me he could handle a route of ground in the San Felipe on 3/15, finishing third behind Georgie Boy and Gayego. He was on the gas the whole way around the track despite a bit of pressure from Gayego, but still had something left in the tank turning for home.  He came back in the Santa Anita Derby and fought it out with Colonel John, finishing 2nd.  It took the Colonel everything he had to catch him.  Colt may benefit the most from War Pass’s injury as he may well draw into the field here.  Plus, the Derby sets up a tad more to his liking with the speedy War Pass gone.  He’ll still have to contend with Big Brown and perhaps Recapturetheglory up front, unless his connections try and slow him down a bit to ensure he lasts the distance.  Bob Black Jack worked 4 furlongs in 48.00 at Santa Anita on 4/14.

Bob Black Jack sprints away in the 6 furlong Sunshine Millions Dash.  

   13. Cowboy Cal

• Owner: Stonerside Stable
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: John Velasquez
• Sire: Giant’s Causeway
• Dam: Texas Tammy
• Notes:  Came back from the dead to run 2nd behind Monba in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes over the Polytrack at Keeneland on 4/12/08.  He gives Todd Pletcher two horses to shoot for the roses in the Kentucky Derby.  Earlier in the year he had been on my watch list, but I dropped him after he ran in 2nd in a relatively weak field in the Hallandale Beach Stakes.  He’s taken the turf/synthetic road to the Derby and there will be questions about how well he can handle the dirt in the Derby.  He could be another going for the lead adding to what is sure to be a hot pace in the Derby.

Cowboy Cal wins the Tropical Park Derby (turf) on 1/1/08 at Calder

14. Big Truck

• Owner:Eric Fein
• Trainer:Barclay Tagg
• Jockey: Eibar Coa
• Sire: Hook and Ladder
• Dam: Just a Ginny
• Notes:  Has been quietly improving for some time, as evidenced by his recent 2nd place finish to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes by half a length.  He returned to do the unthinkable by defeating War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby. What was most impressive about that effort was the way he battled Atoned throughout the stretch. He’d be a bit more flattered if Atoned had come back to run big, but he didn’t.  Plus, War Pass had a total melt down in the Tampa Bay Derby, so it’s not like he looked him in the eye and beat him.  Still, he is moving forward and that’s more than I can say about some of the other guys.  He did look rather flat in the Bluegrass on 4/12 at Keeneland, but like the other dirt runners (Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man), I’m chalking that up to the surface switch.

Big Truck pulls the upset of the year over 1/9 favorite War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby

15. Adriano

• Owner:Courtlandt Farms
• Trainer: Graham Motion
• Jockey: Edgar Prado
• Sire: A.P. Indy
• Dam: Gold Canyon
• Notes:  Colt appears to be headed for Kentucky after Graham Motion originally indicated they would pass. His pedigree sets up stronger for the turf, but you can’t knock a guy for trying considering the vulnerability favorites have displayed all along the Derby trail.

Adriano wins the Lane’s End Stakes on 3/22/08

16. Recapturetheglory

• Owner:Louie J. Roussel, III & Ronald Lamarque
• Trainer: Lara Van Deren
• Jockey: E.T. Baird
• Sire: Cherokee Run
• Dam: Cold Awakening
• Notes: Ran 2nd to Cool Coal Man at the Allowance level at Churchill earlier in their careers. The son of Cherokee Run came back to wire the field as a long-shot in the Illinois Derby on 4/5/08.  The heavy favorite, Denis of Cork, simply did not fire that day.  He’s also got a 2nd place finish to Cool Coal Man in his resume, so it’s tough for me to think of him as a total fluke. Still, if he tries for the lead in the Derby he’ll likely end up cooked by a combo of Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, and possibly Cowboy Cal as well.  Recapturetheglory is already at Churchill and worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.00 on 4/19.

Recapturetheglory wires the field in the Illinois Derby on 4/5/08.

17. Behindatthebar

• Owner: Padua Stables
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: David Flores
• Sire: Forest Wildcat
• Dam: Rhiana
• Notes: Win in the Coolmore Lexington gives trainer Todd Plecther3 Derby runners along with Cowboy Cal and Monba.  Did look pretty impressive in the Coolmore Lexington, but that was over the Polytrack at Keeneland, which is quite different from the true dirt at Churchill.  Would appear to be the weaker of Pletcher’s 3 entries at the moments.

Behindatthebar wins the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on 4/19/08

18. Denis of Cork

• Owner:  Mr. and Mrs. William Warren
• Trainer:David Caroll
• Jockey:Robby Albarado
• Sire: Harlans Holiday
• Dam: Unbridled Girl
• Notes: Had “bucked shins” as a 2 year old which delayed his eventual debut.  Trained with fellow Derby hopeful Blackberry Road prior to making his belated debut.  Since then has run off a 3 for 3 record, including a win around two turns in the Southwest Stakes. His connections wavered between heading to the Rebel or the Illinois Derby and sided with the latter.  The colt responded by turning in his worst race thus far.  Denis of Cork is at Churchill getting ready for the Derby and turned in a 4 furlong workout in 50.00 on 4/13.

Denis of Cork comes from 15 lengths back at one point to win the Southwest Stakes by 3 lengths 

19. Z Humor

• Owner: Zayat Stables
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Jockey: Rene Douglass
• Sire: Distorted Humor
• Dam:Offtheoldblock
• Notes: Ranks among the leaders in terms of graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but hasn’t really shown anything as a 3 year old since winning in a dead heat at the end of his 2 year old campaign in the Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot.  So far in his 3 year old campaign he’s earned a 5th place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, a 4th place finish in the Fountain of Youth, and a 3rd place finish in the Illinois Derby.  I suppose in keeping with that trend he’s bound to run 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.  I’m kidding of course.  The Delta Jackpot was not particularly strong and the colt  has seemed outclassed when matched against the better 3 year olds so far this year.  Still, he turned in a rather sharp 4 furlong workout in 47.60 at Churchill on 4/17.

20. Anak Nakal

• Owner: Four Roses Thoroughbreds
• Trainer:Nick Zito
• Jockey: Alan Garcia
• Sire: Victory Gallop
• Dam: Misk
• Notes:Won the Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 years old but since then hasn’t really had a solid 3 year old campaign.  Anak Nakallooked flat in both the Rebel and the Fountain of Youth Stakes.  He has enough earnings that a trip to Kentucky is likely, but he has the look of a total long-shot about him.  I’d be shocked if he wound up in the money against the kind of field he’ll likely face in the Derby. Colt turned in a 4 furlong workout in 49.40 at Churchill on 4/18.

Anak Nakal wins the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill 

On the outside looking in:

• Eight Belles:3 year-old filly could be headed to the either the Oaks or the Derby.  Larry Jones (of Hard Spun fame) is still deciding. She turned in a brilliant 4 furlong workout in 46.60 at Oaklawn on 4/20.  I’m hoping she gets the green light as I think she’ll be an instant contender.
• Proud Spell:  Well regarded filly is also mulling a decision over the Oaks or the Derby.  If she gets in she’ll be a force as well.  If/when an official announcement is made I’ll update the rankings to depict the sure to happen changes.
• Hey Byrn: won the Holy Bull and is a bubble horse for the Derby.
• Salute the Sarge: Didn’t run his best race in the Coolmore Lexington, which was likely his last chance for the Derby.  Looks like he’ll be skipping the run for the roses despite having enough earnings to qualify.
• Tomcito: Peruvian shipper ran 3rd in the Florida Derby during Big Brown’s romp.  Came back to finish disappointingly in the Coolmore Lexington, but that was over Polytrack. Likely off the Derby trail unless their are defections above him.  
• Icabad Crane: Colt won the Federico Tesio Stakes on 4/19 at Pimlico for trainer Graham Motion, which is typically a spring board for a Preakness entry.  No official decision yet. Definitely not a qualifier for the Derby but could be seen two weeks later at Pimlico.
• My Pal Charlie: Colt has rewarded backers with in-the-money finishes at long odds but is likely on the outside looking in come May 3.