It’s hard to believe that in just 24 hours we’ll be gearing up for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. Derby day is a special day for horse racing fans around the country, and the single day on the calendar where our sport takes center stage nationally.
I’ve blogged earlier in the week about the inherent difficulties of picking a Derby winner from a field of 20. It’s a tough, thankless job (except for the winning wagers, of course) that more often than not leaves you looking foolish publicly. Even the great Steven Crist, the nation’s premier pick 6 player and the chairman and publisher of the Daily Racing Form, went winless from 1992 to 2006 before correctly selecting Street Sense in the 2007.
As difficult as it may be, it’s time to step up to the plate and make some selections here. I’ll caveat these selections by stating that I tend to go a little crazy in the Derby and play multiple tickets. In other words, I won’t be restricting myself to only what I type here. Roughly 5 minutes before post time I’ll likely be feverishly entering a slew of trifecta combos. You only live once, right?
Let’s take one last look at the field, with jockey and morning line odds information:
- Cool Coal Man (Julien Leparoux) – 30/1
- Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa) - 15/1
- Anak Nakal (Rafael Bejarano) – 30/1
- Court Vision (Garrett Gomez) - 20/1
- Eight Belles (Gabriel Saez) – 20/1
- Z Fortune (Robbie Albarado) – 15/1
- Big Truck (J. Castellano) – 50/1
- Visionaire (Jose Lezcano) – 20/1
- Pyro (Sean Bridgmohan) – 6/1
- Colonel John (Corey Nakatani) – 4/1
- Z Humor (Rene Douglas) – 30/1
- Smooth Air (M.R. Cruz) – 20/1
- Bob Black Jack (Richard Migliore) – 20/1
- Monba (Ramon Dominguez) – 15/1
- Adriano (Edgar Prado) – 30/1
- Denis of Cork (Calvin Borel) – 20/1
- Cowboy Cal (J.R. Velasquez) – 20/1
- Recpaturetheglory (E.T. Baird) – 20/1
- Gayego(M.E. Smith) – 15/1
- Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux) – 3/1*
Let’s begin by dispensing with the obvious. Big Brown is the best horse in this race. I think that’s pretty clear and in my mind is beyond debate. To win the Derby, someone’s going to have to defeat him and that will be no small challenge. I don’t really buy into the “knocks” against him. I think his feet are fine (despite the front bandages you’ll see on display on Saturday). I don’t mind that he’s “lightly raced” (Curlin, anyone?), or that he hasn’t faced the toughest of fields. I think we’ve seen his talent showcased and there simply isn’t another horse in the field that is on equal skill level as Dutrow’s colt.
The main competitors that have a real shot at upsetting Big Brown are: Colonel John, Pyro, Gayego, Eight Belles, Monba, and Z Fortune. I don’t really think anyone else in this race can be considered a win candidate. Obviously I can’t play all of these guys and Big Brown, so let’s see if we can take a stand somewhere.
Right out of the gate, I’m of the opinion that Big Brown will actually rocket for the lead, then try to cut over and save as much ground as he can heading for the first turn. While the 20 hole does mean he’ll be wide, it also assures him of a clean start and a chance to kick into high gear as soon as he desires.
The trouble for Big Brown right out of the gate is that potential speed duelers Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory are to his inside, along with the quick Gayego. Big Brown will have to clear them in order to collapse as much ground as he’d like to. Most likely, some combo of this grouping will get to the lead and then start angling inwards.
The next challenge for Big Brown will be the speedy Bob Black Jack breaking from the 13 hole. If he gets a good start, we could wind up with a pace setting duel that could tax the leaders and open things up for the off-the-pacers and closers. Big Brown should be good enough to get past Bob Black Jack, or he may decide to let Bob Black Jack have the lead (I think that would be wiser….why fight him for the lead when you don’t need to?).
If this goes as planned than Big Brown should be in a decidedly nice position to make one move and sprint away to win by a decent margin on Saturday. That being said, this is a lot to ask from any horse, let alone a lightly raced 3 year old breaking from the extreme outside, hence the reason he won’t be my top choice. Do I think he can win? Absolutely, no question about it. Do I think he should win? That’s where the picture gets a bit fuzzier.
If (and this may be a big “if” when all is said and done), Big Brown were to get hung wide, or encounter a speed duel, or god forbid something wrong were to happen – just who would the race setup for? Gayego could be close behind Big Brown, but I’m having trouble envisioning him getting the extra furlong comfortably from so wide. Eight Belles could be in a nice position from the inside of the pack, but she has a tendency to not break well and from the comments on her recent workouts was observed to be “lugging in” towards the rail. That could spell problems for her.
I think we’d have to look a bit deeper to the guys who should be putting in their runs as the field turns for home. It’s all going to come down to position, but two horses we know can fight through traffic are Colonel John and Pyro. Neither is as fast as Big Brown, but this is horse racing and the race doesn’t always go to the fastest horse of the field. They’ll need some burnout happening in front of them, but they may get just that. Of these two, while I’ve said for weeks that I don’t take anything away from Pyro just because of his dismal Bluegrass effort, I do prefer Colonel John. In fact, I’m anointing Colonel John as my official Derby selection.
Please don’t mistake that last sentence as meaning that I’m foolish enough to think Big Brown won’t win. He probably will. I’m just not the type of guy that can take the favorite in the Derby unless there’s no reason I can support anyone else. The 20 hole and the speed to his inside is enough for me to go with Colonel John, but you’d best believe there will be some tickets on Big Brown as well. He’s just too good to totally pass up. I made the mistake of picking against him in the Florida Derby, and I’ll be darned if he’s going to burn me twice, even if he is my “2nd choice.”
Colonel John has that fight in him that all the Tiznow colts seem to show. I know he hasn’t been over the dirt yet, but he started to look like he really took to it as the week wore on. He’s bred for this type of race and has to be considered a player. I’m worried that his odds may come down a bit too much due to his post position compared with Big Brown’s, but there’s nothing I can do about that as I type this over 24 hours in advance of the race. I think he may actually run his best race over dirt, despite how accomplished he has been over the synthetics. Also, while I definitely concede that he’s not as quick as some of the others, I’m not of the opinion that we can compare the Beyer figures of Santa Anita to other tracks this year as easily as we might assume. True, that track seemed to play to his running style, but as the meet wore on it also tended to reduce speed figures.
The other horses I really like here are Pyro, Monba, Z Fortune, and Eight Belles. Court Vision could be sitting on his best race with the addition of blinkers, but I still don’t think he’s a real win candidate. My wife is playing Z Fortune all the way – and actually boxing him up with Pyro for an Asmussen exacta. Boy, can you tell the kind of cumulative effect Curlin has had on my household?
Gayego is the horse I wanted to pick. I dreamt about him winning when I was in California a few weeks ago. I loved the way he transitioned to dirt in the Arkansas Derby and think he has a bright future ahead of him. I’m not incredibly fond of the extra furlong on Saturday or the post position in the 19 hole. It pains me to do so, but I’m passing on him as a win candidate. I’ll have a casual bet on him “just in case” - but I won’t be giving him out as a winner here.
The main trifecta I’ll play is a bit deeper than I usually advise, which is only to be expected with such a large field. I’ll use both Big Brown and Colonel John for the win. I’ll add in Pyro and Z Fortune for place, and will then add Eight Belles, Court Vision, and Monba for show. Total cost $30.
10, 20 with 6, 9, 10, 20 with 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 20
Best of luck to all of you. Here’s hoping we get a Derby to remember. It would be great to see Big Brown go for a Triple Crown. Can’t say I’d be disappointed to see any of the other horses mentioned here win (Pyro, Gayego, Colonel John, Monba, Z Fortune, or Eight Belles).
The Colonel is coming home!
I have three longshots I’ll probably use, Court Vision, Z Fortune and Monba.
It is a tough race. I’ll go deep in the pick 3 leading up to and including the Derby.
I love Z Fortune, he had a great race last time, if he just had a better post position!
great race?
he backed up when gayego got a peek @ ‘em
sorry
I like Eight Bells and I’m using her in my last 2 pool. Anyone else playing it this year?
http://www.last2left.com/whatsinplay/kentucky-derby-2008
After hours of thought, I had narrowed it down to Eight Belles, Colonel John, and Pyro. Colonel John’s Beyers just seem too weak, though that workout over Churchill was amazing. Pyro has a 105 Beyer, but the time wasn’t all that fast. He ran a 1:43:2 over the Monmouth track which is a pretty fast surface. Eight Belles just ran a 1:43 flat in victory at Oaklawn, which I don’t recall being a really fast track. That and the fact that she’s won so easy were the deciding “wow” factors for me. She also doesn’t have to carry the extra five lbs that the boys will be carrying. I know Eight Belles lugs in but it can’t be any worse than Big Brown.
I disagree about Big Brown probably winning. I think he’s the best horse too, but I think the post and hot pace will do him in. He’ll have to be comparable to Secretariat to pull this off. It doesn’t take much to get a great horse beat. Curlin’s Derby and Belmont are good examples.
Kevin, I assume you’re going to be doing the cookout thing at home tomorrow?
It’s good to see the filly getting so much support. I’m passing on her but would love if she won.
@ Phil – Monba and Z Fortune look sneaky to me as well!
Court Vision I can’t see winning – but I’m hearing an in-the-money finish is actually quite likely.
@Amy – we’ll see, babe. He’ll be easy to spot on the track, that’s for sure.
@Paul – he did break from the extreme outside. A better post position may well have turned the tables in the Arkansas Derby. Who’s to know, right?
@Alice – I’ll have to check that out. Never heard of it to be honest.
@Jerry – I know…..I’m actually quite torn with this. I just can’t leave him out. Part of it I’m sure has to do with the fact that I got burned thinking the outside would kill him last time out. Can I really pick against the best 3 year old twice in a row? I did take Colonel John over him. Was torn between Colonel John and Pyro for the ultimate selection. Either way I couldn’t leave Big Brown out on talent alone, and with that in mind I couldn’t give out a ticket with 3 horses on top, either. Although (hint hint) I’ll probably have a few others in play.
Grilling out for sure – Amy just got back with the supplies. As long as we don’t get rain here. I’m near Balitmore and they are calling for showers. Shouldn’t be enough to totally dampen the day though.
i have seen a lot about the polytrack vs. dirt and was wondering with a sloppy track will all that dissappear? my pick is eight bells for purly selfish reasons! i am however looking forward to a great race and possibly a triple crown??
Nice to see your the featured blog. They had some goofyness there earlier. Let us pray. For a dry track tomorrow.
BAKIN
You seemed a bit timid announcing your picks for the Derby. Everybody was anxious to hear which horse you would pick. I know I was. I was expecting something like, “Behold, for I have chosen…” I know that’s how I feel when I finally write WIN by a horse’s name in the form for the Derby. I know I have made the best possible pick this year with Eight Belles, but I’m not the slightest bit confident. I guess after I’ve picked monsters like Curlin and Afleet Alex only to watch them run third, I know you really also need to be lucky. I’ll be happy if after the race I still feel I made the best pick, whether she wins or not.
@ Fritz – honestly if it’s raining tomorrow (last I checked weather.com was saying 80% chance of rain – mostly in the morning though) the race is wide open. Maybe I turn to a guy like Visionaire? Pyro didn’t do too badly in the slop. I’m honestly more of a form/Tomlinson guy when it rains – and I usually don’t do very well in the slop. The few hits I do get are big ones, but they are few and far between on the off-track. That’s not really an answer to your question though. I don’t really know to be honest.
@kanadianbakin – indeed. If for nothing else than to assure that the horses all come out of the trip safe and without injury. It gets a little bumper car-ish with 20 horses sometimes. I’m the featured blog? No way!!!! Than I owe all of you a huge thanks!
@Jerry- yeah, you read me like an open book. It’s tough to pull the trigger when really there’s 6 I like. Pyro? Colonel John? Big Brown? I like ‘em all. But, since you are one of my favorite readers, I owe you what you were looking for.
“Behold – the oracle hath spoken. The portents are favorable for thy Colonel of John. He shall slay thy beast of Biggest Brownus! And then, the good people shall feast on sleuth, and orangutan…….”
(with a little Monty Python homage for good measure) 
I promise I’ll be a bit more firm on the Preakness.
great stuff!!!!
Can I play too?
I know nothing about horse racing. But here are my picks based solely on names:
Pyro, Visionaire and Cool Coal Man.
Make the bet just for fun kstafford
What I did for this race is toss the ones that don’t finish well enough.
I posted my pace figures at the above link.
BB is short on experience and iffy at the distance. BB is however experienced with the outside post and he won’t know or care how many are to the left of him.
The filly lacks tactical speed but can finish.
Denis Of Cork is coming back around to his Southwest race which puts him in here. He shows 3 fast works at CD including one before the ILL Dby.
Pyro, CJ, CV all rank high on the Experimental Free Handicap. Tale Of Ekati ran a weak final fraction last out so I’m off him.
Z Fortune fits too but lacks class and breeding.
CV and BB have never finished out of the money, won graded stakes at 9f and have opposite running styles. CV is a better price than CJ and just as likely to run in the top 3.
My picks:
BB and CV (longshot pick) to win.
exa box BB,CV
tri boxes:
BB,CV,CJ
BB,CV,PY
BB,CV,EB
BB,CV,ZF
BB,CV,DOC
K, great stuff as usually. Good luck on the derby, the info you provide is essential to any horse player out there. As for the Derby I do agree with Colonel John. I would bet him to win, and box him in a huge exacta with Z Fortune (my opinion its a two-horse race), but I would also use Denis the Cork and Big Brown in some exotics as well. Take care.
The Colonel should become the Kentucky Colonel (think about THAT) hah maybe he can grow one of those pointy beards and mustash’s. He’s the betting favorite, I mean to win in my book for weeks now based on his finish and gallop out at Santa Anita. Pyro is my personal favorite, I’ll be rooting for him, no doub’t. Other than that the 6 thru 8 horses have great chance. Personally I that that Gayego will do better than Big Brown way out there in the gate. I have NO idea why Big Browns connections took # 20 when , I believe#1 and/or #2 was still available, that’s pretty dumb (well unless he wins hah)! Good luck, I sure hope the track drys out, if NOT who knows who will win???
The differences of opinion between racing analysts is really amazing. Both Kevin and I believe Gayego’s 19 post spells doom, yet Dan Illman of Daily Racing Form thinks that Gayego will “stay out of trouble breaking from the outside.” I’m expecting a fast pace of 45 n change with the way the speed horses are breaking from outside, yet Andrew Beyer believes “the pace might be middling by Derby standards–a half in :46 and change or :47. ” A slow pace like that would give the race to Big Brown in my opinion, but Andrew thinks with that pace, “horses of any style would have a chance.” I really love the big guessing game. It’s what makes the race so intriguing for us handicappers. Can’t wait for 6 o’ clock!!!!
I’ve been lurking for a while here at this friendly site, thought I’d pop in with my “thinking” just so I can be a public fool at day’s end. I like Col. John, he’s a perfect roses colt, but I’ve been burned before by Nakatani on closers in deep fields. So I’ll go for a tri wheel with Pyro and the Col. above those two + Court Vision above those three + Adriano. (The real money, as always on May’s first Staurday, lies with the undercard.) Denis of Cork’ll prolly FUBAR the whole deal.
BB’s outside post means he’ll break clean but be stuck at least 5 wide on the first turn. There are so many other factors against him (greenness, unimpressive fields) I don’t see him there. Now watch him turn out to be the next Secretariat.
Love your blog, but the copy editor in me can’t resist making a little correction. Cool Coal Man is being ridden by Frenchman Julien Laparoux, not Jordan Leparoux, as you state in your chart.The analysis is good — you just need to double-check those pesky foreign names!
@ theBeadden – of course you can play! I’ll toss a small play in for you and see if it hits.
@Don Swanson – I think there’s a good chance you just nailed most of the trifecta there with Big Brown and Court Vision. I just can’t see Court Vision winning, although “blinkers on” is always something to pay attention to.
@Parliament – thanks man, hoping to be able to get online with you guys again and make some picks.
@roblejeune – is it an omen that Amy brought home some KFC last night? I hadn’t even realized that! Of course, I woke up at 4 AM with an upset stomach, but what price is that for a Derby win (possibly)?
@ Jerry – Tell me about it. I’ve seen folks taking about 8 or 9 different horses in this field. Haven’t met any Anak Nakal backers yet.
I thought it was interesting that Brad Free – who covers CA racing – picked Colonel John 4th. That gave me a good deal of pause. I’ll be honest, I don’t even really read most of the “expert” picks though. I found out long ago that letting them sway you in anyway is a bad idea. Preakness last year is my best example of that. Nobody seemed to back Curlin for the win. I listened to Beyer and Watchmaker (if I remember correctly) talk about how he couldn’t make up the lengths he was beaten by. You just tune it out. I even tell people not to really listen to me even though I’m writing about it. Reason being-if you’ve formed an opinion – go with it. It’ll feel 10x better if you hit on “your” picks than anyone elses. God…ist it 6PM yet? I’m 0 fo 2 so far on trifecta plays on the undercard (down a whopping $12).
@cavjam – That’s awesome that you popped in to comment. I always wonder who the folks driving up the stat counter are that I don’t hear from. It’s a pleasure to meet you. That’s a nice analysis you laid out there pretty quickly. Can’t knock any of them, although I’d probably leave off Adriano. I love Graham Motion but I’m not seeing it from him. I keep hearing Denis of Cork more and more from folks. Many think he’s ready to fire his best.
@Monica – thanks for pointing that out. I don’t know what I was thinking. Where did I get Jordan from? I should point out that I’m running on 3 hours sleep right now. See the aforementioned KFC comment in the portion of the reply directed at roblejeune.
I’m hearing from an owner that tale of ekati or whatever his name is has an ankle sprain. in fairness to colonel john one should add 8 to 10 beyer points ala gayego moving from santa claus poly track to dirt and his blood and work might make that more palatable. gayego on the outside is fine, its a str8 line to the turn and this horse ran two ENTIRE races on the outside among the 5 entering this race. the connections want no part of the rail. if smith keeps him in the top 3 or 4 on the backstretch it will be over for the naysayers. brown is last year’s curlin. needs another race. the 4 horse imo belongs in the exotics along with the 6 , Z misfortune. good luck all and thank you Kevin for the time you’ve allowed me on your awesome blog!
What time does it run today?????? Are you there, or are you in front of the TV already? Geesh.
Oh….I finally decided on Pyro, Big Brown, and Visionaire.
@ Paul -Very intersting to consider, Paul. I hadn’t heard that about Tale of Ekati. LOL @ Z Misfortune. My wife will be happy to hear that someone else is using him. Feel free to stop over and comment any time – it’s a pleasure to have you with us.
@Tamera – roughly 6PM EST is post time- TV coverage of the Derby itself begins at 5PM EST on NBC. Right now the undercard is on ESPN. Curlin’s already been on a few times walking around the track. I’m doing odds and ends in the house and laying some casual bets here and there. Had the tri in the last race and didn’t bet it. Doh!!!!!
Nice picks by the way – see what’s happened – you’re even more decisive than I am!
So, what did i miss?
Who’s the winner?
I’d choose, Big brown — Pyro — Eighbelles
Track is actually fast WOW ! I bet there will be 3 or 4 horses close at the wire, maybe even 5 horses!
Did you see Curlin get paraded—-Wow!!!! That white garment….Less then
an hour for the derby——What Excitement!!!!!!
Oh by the way–Curlins owner Mr. Jackson says he will run in the Steven
Foster….Asmussen will not confirm it!!!!!
Good Luck Kevin. I’ve got to stick with Gayego + Monba, really worried about Z Fortune though. Still think Proud Spell would have been at worst 2nd here.
BAKIN
@Tris – didn’t miss anything yet on the Derby – but turn on NBC now if you can.
@roblejeune – Yup – playing pretty quick right now!
@Greg – Saw it and recorded on my DVR – my god that horse is amazing to behold. Can’t wait for the Steven Foster!
@Kanadianbakin – That would be a huge score – bigger than anything I’ve got in play, so here’s hoping that comes in for you.
Big Brown – Holy Bejesus!!!!!!
The filly is down on the track. Here’s hoping for the best for Eight Belles.
Oh no…..Eight Belles got put down. She fought on hard for 2nd.
Unbeaten in 4 starts. Another Curlin in our future?
Eight Belles had compound fractures in her front two legs – I’m having a hard time being excited about the race.
if you’re able to access, you can watch the whole show again here,
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/espn360/player
Oh. I feel really bad for Eight Belles
I couldn’t figure out which one had gone down on TV…did they send her out with ankle injuries to begin with?
I think she might have spooked at something from what was said afterwards, I’m looking for a replay. I’ll see it soon at the end of what I’m viewing now.
Big Brown became the first horse to win from post 20 since 1929.
Did ya’ll see Pyro get pushed out in the start?
Very tragic. Really takes the wind right out of the Derby. I’m heartbroken for Eight Belles.
I’ve got the write-up and race replay posted already:
http://theaspiringhorseplayer.com/2008/05/03/big-brown-wins-kentucky-derby-eight-belles-euthanized/
Eight Belles shouldn’t have been in the race. She wasn’t prepared for such an event. Her last race she ran against three other horses. Unlike the Belmont where there is far less competitors for Rags, this filly was thrown to the wolves and was destroyed. What were the connections thinking. Now they have only themselves to question. She had a good draw and it killed her…
I watched Winning Colors win the Derby years ago; what amazing courage she had, she wouldn’t give up. The same for Eight Belles. I’m just sick at heart.
if she wasn’t ready to run, she wouldn’t have beat 18 of 20 horses today. she fell when she was pulling up, not during the race. i don’t believe it has anything to do with her being a female. had big brown not been in the race, she would have won, and then we would have seen the winner being euthanized after the race. all of those horses have big hearts and want to run; today she was second best and either she took a bad step while pulling up after the race, or she had swelling in the right fore that was most likely unknown at the time. they can have a sesamoid injury and walk off sound; sometimes it’s not known unless someone actually notices the heat.
Not to downplay the Eight Belles tragedy, but most of us here at Sunland Park were talking Triple Crown for Big Brown today. Agree?
By the way, I’ve been into your blog for weeks now, but this is the only night I’ve been drunk enough to venture a comment.
@Bruce – I respect your opinion but disagree. She (Eight Belles) was in much sounder shape with more races under her belt than many of the colts, including Big Brown. There was no way to expect this would happen. Plus, Larry Jones absolutely loved her.
@Diss – yup – just think of it – she beat 18 of the top colts in the country. There are thousands of thoroughbreds born each year. The top 20 were there yesterday. She ranked #2 when all was said and done. I’d say they had her perfectly placed.
@glenvargas – Awesome! Glad you decided to leave a comment. I”m certainly thinking Triple Crown now. I think Big Brown is an absolute lock to win the Preakness – there’s no way anyone will catch him at Pimlico. The Belmont, as always, is where I’ll be worried. The extra distance (mile and 1/2) along with the prospect of running into fresh competition (like Curlin did) will be the main challenges. Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide – the list of horses of equal talent that have failed to win he Belmont are like a painful memory burned in my brain.
I hope he does though- after the Eight Belles tragedy, we need a Triple Crown winner to help bring more positive energy to the game. Then we could await the matchup between Triple Crown winner and Curlin in the Classic. Ah, one can only hope.
A spill first race at Belmont. Not pretty.
BAKIN
Awe man…this post is getting hits again? No doubt from folks thinking it’s my “09 derby selections. Brings back all kinds of bad memories. Eight Belles….my picking of Colonel John….but hey, it was the first comment from GLenVargas here. Wherever did you go, Glen?
[...] JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him. He’s a [...]
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