Sunday handicapping selections – Pimlico

1 06 2008

Race 1: Md 12500 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Zero Coupon (8/5*)
  • #2 Final Authority (9/5)
  • #1 Silver Bay (6/1)

Looks like a two horse race on paper to me – and a rematch at that.  #2 Final Authority got the lead and the rail last out when facing today’s favorite, #4 Zero Coupon.  Final Authority was able to hang on for 3rd that day while Zero Coupon ran a disappointing 4th.  I look for a very similar race today, although I expect Zero Coupon to take a step forward today and perhaps turn the tables on Final Authority.  Zero Coupon could be stalking nicely as they turn for home.  A perfect trip might be just what the doctor ordered to wind up in the winner’s circle.  Whoever wins the battle between these two is your race winner.  I thought #1 SIlver Bay was eligible to move forward and might find himself up near the lead early on, but he’s a notch below the top two.

Race 2: Clm 10000  F+M 3↑  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #4 Hello Easy Street (4/1)
  • #5 Really Nice (1/1*)
  • #1 Swear To It (7/2)

Hard to take a stand against the favorite #5 Really Nice here. The 9 time winner was beaten chalk at the $20k claiming level last time out. She’s easily capable of handling today’s distance and challengers are likely going to have to deal with her on the lead.  On the downside, she is a 7-year-old so there’s not really any room for improvement.  Be careful of taking at too low of odds.  1/1 just isn’t very attractive at all here, but she is capable.  #1 Swear to It exits a pretty good race last out where she faced some of the tougher State-breds on the track, including Four Karats, Vicar’s Vixen, and Pick Up The Tempo.  Like the favorite, Swear to It seems to prefer today’s route distance. Only concern is that she may not be tough enough in the stretch.  #3 Hello Easy Street warrants consideration here as well.  She should be coming late and if Really Nice starts to tire in the stretch, it could be this 4-year-old who takes a step forward today and steals the victory.

Race 3: Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #9 Najdiah (2/1*)
  • #2 Count Backwards (3/1)
  • #11 Holy Akadya (6/1)

Another chalky looking race on paper.  #9 Najdiah makes two moves that warrant expecting improvement; she takes the hood off and moves back to the grass where she does her best running.  I think she looks tough to beat here in today’s 3rd race.  #2 Count Backwards drops in from the Maiden Special Weight level and her usual race looks good enough to contend here.  #11 Holy Akadya is an interesting looking first timer who must first clear the Also Eligible list to draw into today’s field. 

Race 4: Md Sp Wt 28k 3YO (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Short Dancer (1/1*)
  • #1 Plane Image (3/1)
  • #6 Loveme Lovemenot (6/1)

Another race, another formidable favorite to contend with. #4 Short Dancer adds blinkers to the J. Arce/S. Lake jockey-trainer combo tandem and enjoys a 14 point advantage in terms of best last Beyer speed figure.  #1 Plane Image is eligible to improve after breaking slowly and getting hung wide as the beaten chalk last out in his debut  I liked #5 Hesagoldmine and #6 Loveme Lovemenot about equal for the bottom of the exotic wagers. 

Race 5: Clm 25000 N2L F+M 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #7 Grazezing (5/2)
  • #8 Little Topper (6/1)
  • #6 Kelly’s calling ( 9/2)

A very competitive 4th race could be a spot for players to look to make money. #7 Grazezing should get a great trip stalking the early speed and at 5 furlongs will need to be near the front to ensure a good finish.  #8 Little Topper really perked up on the grass two races back. #6 Kelly’s Calling should also be respected here. If she takes to the turf a bit better in her 2nd try, she could be a major factor in the stretch.  #3 Lady Grandeur should be coming late to threaten for the exotics. 

Race 6 Clm 7500 N2L F+M 3↑ (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #5 Miss Elloree (5/1)
  • #3 Greener Pastures (7/2)
  • #4 No Exposure (3/1*)

A very competitive conditional claimer in today’s 6th at Pimlico.  I tend to prefer recent form in such races, and #5 Miss Elloree fits the bill exiting a 6 length score to break her maiden last out.  #3 Greener Pastures drops in from open $12k claiming ranks after a turf try last out.  Trainer Hamilton Smith is an ace taking them from turf to the main track. #4 No Exposure was beaten chalk last out and retains the services of J. Arce.

Race 7: OC 32k/N3X 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #5 What a Monster (7/2)
  • #3 Lycurgus (3/1)
  • #7 Skeleton Crew (9/2)

Depending on how this one sets up, #7 Skeleton Crew could either be on the lead or in a duel for the front. If it’s the former he could wind up hanging on to the end here.  Regardless, #5 What a Monster should be perfectly placed in striking distance turning for home.  #3 Lycurgus could be coming late, but if there’s not a lot of pace to run at he’ll need to be much the best in the stretch to prevail.

Race 8: Alw 30000 N1X F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Camp Spirit (9/5*)
  • #3 Gus’s Axios (3/1)
  • #11 Abbicadabra (5/1)

You get the feeling #4 Camp Spirit is going to be singled on a number of pick 4 and pick tickets. The real challenger I could see is #3 Gus’s Axios, who could return as something to close to what she was in 2007 – although the workout tabs aren’t exactly heart stopping.  #11 Abbicadabra is better than that last race shows.  Drawing the outside will likely ruin her chances, but I feel like this gal can run with the other contenders.

Race 9: Md 2500 F+M 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles Turf)

  • #1 Tiffany’s Charm (6/1)
  • #7 Little Red Bullet (5/2*)
  • #2 Found Daylight (8/1)

#1 Tiffany’s Charm had a nice little turf debut on 4/24 finishing a close 3rd after having a bid in the stretch.  #7 Little Red Bullet is a must use in the exotics due to the drop from the Maiden Special Weight $27k level and the addition of blinkers.  #2 Found Daylight just ran back on 5/26, and it wasn’t a bad debut at all.  If she doesn’t scratch this one might be an interesting play.

As always, check for scratches/changes.





Zenyatta keeps perfect record intact; Wins Milady Handicap with ease

1 06 2008

Zenyatta takes the G2 Milady Handicap with a hand ride.

Zenyatta overcame being bumped at the start of the Grade 2 Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday, as well as extremely slow early fractions to waltz away under a hand ride from jockey Michael E. Smith while running her unbeaten record to 5 for 5 lifetime.

“She was squeezed at the start and I just did not want her to fall,” Smith said. “I knew if she stayed up she was going to be tough to beat. Amazing. All I can say is amazing. There are no words in my vocabulary to describe her.”

(Source:
http://www.
latimes.com/sports/horseracing/la-sp-horse1-2008jun01,0,4610697.story
)

“She’s special,” Shirreffs said of his powerful filly. “She was lucky because she got really squeezed coming out of the gate, and Mike was saying he just closed his eyes and hoped she didn’t clip heels. She picked up her feet and got over it alright. She’s breaking better and is a little lighter on her feet. “

(Source:
http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/45508.htm
)

Right out of the gate Zenyattawas knocked around by Romance is Diane and Double Trouble.  The crew covering the race on TVG noted how Romance is Diane and Double Trouble seemed to bounce off of Zenyatta, who appeared totally unfazed by the contact.  This may be no surprise to some, as Zenyatta is an absolutely enormous specimen, and is rumored to be nearly 17 hands.

Trailing the field into the stretch, Zenyatta responded by chewing up ground when asked by Smith.  With absolute ease she coasted past her challengers, and then cruised straight to the finish line without so much as a tap from the whip.  Perhaps most impressively, despite the slow early fractions of 24.74 and 48.19, Zenyatta wound up covering the 1 1/16 miles of the Milady Handicap in 1:41.17 – or roughly a half second off from the track record.

The daughter of Street Cry prevailed by 2 1/2 lengths over Santa Teresita and returned $2.60 for the win.  Kris’ Sis got up in time for third.  Zenyatta has now defeated her opponents in all 5 lifetime starts by a combined 15 1/2 lengths.

Her rise to fame has also coincided nicely with the creation of this blog.  One of my initial handicapping posts gave out Zenyatta as a contender in her maiden race – most likely the most value we’ll ever catch on her at 5/1.  Watching her meteoric rise to fame as perhaps the top older female in the country has been extremely entertaining thus far.

If you were not a Zenyatta fan before Saturday, I strongly suggest you take notice. She’s blown away everything she’s faced thus far, including the mare many will say is the 2nd best in the country at the moment, Ginger Punch.  According to the article from Bloodhorse linked to above, Zenyatta will next point to the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap on July 15.

Perhaps most touching of all, after the race Smith stated that Zenyatta had “told him she wanted to dedicate this race to Nashoba’s Key.” 








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