It’s been a relatively slow Monday. All of us are chomping at the bit to start dissecting the Belmont as soon as post positions are drawn on Wednesday. However, even that right of passage is starting to feel a little anti-climactic this year, as nearly everyone agrees that we’re as close to a sure-thing Triple Crown winner as we’ve ever been.
In just a matter of days, BIg Brown will take to the track and stare down not only the other horses, but 30 years of history rife with heartbreaking upsets. There are some that are predicting doom for the son of Boundary – that his quarter crack, historical foot problems, or perhaps a new challenger like Casino Drive will spoil the fun and keep the sport in a collective 3-decade coma as it searches for it’s next Triple Crown winner.
I’m going to come right out and say this. I know I’ve been on both sides of the fence with this guy, imploring folks to support him and then calling on his trainer to show a bit more class with his comments. One may be more than a tad confused exactly where my sentiments lie with the subject of Big Brown. I’ve tried to clarify as much as possible that I love the horse and think he’s an amazing athlete, but have a rough time backing some of his connections. Still, sometimes I think the message comes across as something less than clear.
Well, let this be very clear then. What I expect to happen on Saturday is not a mere Triple Crown victory. It’s not going to be a close-call, or an unimpressive romp over less than stellar quality. No, far from it, I expect that this weekend will be the defining moment of Big Brown’s career. I think we’re going to see him do exactly what we’ve wanted to see form the start of the Triple Crown hype. He’s going to look into the eye of a contender bred for the upset, and he’s going to deny said contender any chance of stealing his glory.
I’ve run the race over in my head a few times, and I keep coming up with Big Brown and Casino Drive getting wonderful stalking trips, sitting just off the leaders. In my mind I see Casino Drive trying to get the jump on Big Brown by firing first. I can see Desormeaux asking Big Brown to go run down Prado and Casino Drive, and I can see Big Brown responding almost effortlessly.
To be truthful, this may well be the biggest challenge he has faced thus far, but if anything was going to derail this horse’s march to victory it was going to be the 20 hole in the Derby. Once he got passed that test, the rest was academic. I expect Big Brown to devour Casino Drive in the stretch, and end up pulling away by an impressive margin. I expect the crowd at Belmont to be mesmerized with having witnessed an event in history that many of them may not ever see the likes of again. I expect to see Big Brown’s best race.
Is there a part of me that is slightly jealous? I think that’s fair to say. In my heart of hearts I wanted to see Curlin in this position last year. I’ve no doubt in my mind that Curlin would’ve destroyed the same crop of 3 year-olds that Big Brown has run through this year.
However, I mustn’t let that detract from Big Brown, for Saturday will be his day, and as much as I may cringe when his trainer speaks, no amount of bombastic commentary can diminish what we are about to behold.
It’s been a long time in the making, racing fans. Get the cigars and champagne ready. On Saturday we break the Triple Crown curse. Take it to the bank – it’s as sure a thing as you’ll ever get in horse racing.
Spectacular Bid and Smarty Jones were also touted as “sure things”. I think Big Brown will win also, but nothing is a sure thing, especially in horse racing.
you paint a rosey picture of saturdays race and it may well happen. but i take a differant view. as a horse player and fan for 40 years i look at the overall picture of this horses talent as compared to horses of the past. big brown does not even come close to others that have won the crown or many others. he would have lost the derby by 12 lengths to big red. countless other horses would have beaten him also. when a horse is not challenged they really excell and i don`t think this guy will ever be challenged by this group and probably won`t be around to face older horses. curlin heetseeker don`t look easy marks for him. in my view point given is the best in the last 10 years and i could not get my $$$ out fast enough to bet that contest. all said i think he wins for fun saturday. best regards glc.
Argghh, it’s CHAMPING at the bit. Please fix this.
@Robert. Never such a thing as an automatic “sure thing” – but who’s going to beat him? I know, anything can happen, but I just don’t see anyone close. Casino Drive would be the only chance.
@Gary Curry – No doubt – and we’re 100% behind team Curlin here. He’s my favorite by a longshot. I also agree that a horse looks incredible when making their move against very suspect competition. It almost looks like he’s beating Allowance or G3 level runners. Maybe one good thing that can come out of this is that there won’t be a ton of 3-year-olds commanding high stud fees apart from Big Brown, and maybe these guys will stick around and develop a bit longer? Who knows. I think he’ll win for fun as well.
@Anon – oh for goodness sakes – this is a blog, not my paid job or something. Sorry but tending to family tonight outweighed 100% accuracy in spelling and grammar. I’ve handed myself over to the authorities. They’ve demanded my 4th born as atonement.
To the contrary, Anon. Both champing and chomping are acceptable. Pay a visit to Webster’s for confirmation.
Glad to see ya, Ron! Looks like your site is starting to take form. If there’s one voice the entire sport of horse racing needs right now – it’s that of Ron Correll! There’s no way in hell I’d be blogging right now if it weren’t for the joy I got from reading your old blog at the SJR and the multitude of advice you’ve given me.
And thanks for the clarification. I”m changing it back to chomping again.
I love the certainty with which you predict the outcome. I can’t wait for the race.
So many things can go wrong, I wouldn’t call anything a sure bet. But, IF he fires and gets a good trip, then it is a very close shot. Even though this isn’t the most ideal Triple Crown, I will toast him if he wins. =)
“Take it to the bank…” Hell yeah!
If you’re gonna endorse a horse, do it right.
@robert – to be honest I was more certain about the Preakness, but I’ve seen nothing in any of Big Brown’s runs that makes it fathomable that he could lose.
@Clarice – excellent blog – really loved your Phar Lap and Nashoba’s Key pieces. I agree with you – this is just “as sure a thing as you get in horse racing” – which means something less than 100% but darn near close.
@glenvargas – My pleasure, amigo!
What will be the Show prices if Big Brown finishes 6th????????? Life changing score!
Oh Scott – don’t go all reverse bridge-jumper on me now! The prices would be unthinkable – but unless something awful happens I just can’t imagine any way this race could play out that would leave Big Brown out of the money.
I think the key to a big score might be getting Casino Drive out of the money, since all the exactas will have him and most of the trifectas will probably key him in 2nd with some longshots in 3rd.
That probably won’t happen either, but it may be easier to accomplish than knocking off Big Brown. Macho Again and Icabad Crane look like horses that could get up into 2nd to me. Haven’t officially handicapped it yet – but just based on hunch/what we’ve seen so far.
For what it’s worth, IF one were to take a stab at a life changing score, the Belmont would be the time to do it. Handicap it as if Big Brown were not in the race and play whatever bet suits your fancy. Since the payouts, when Big Brown wins will not be worth the risk involved, the best thing to do is bet crazy or pass.
I’m worried about that no-hope longshot breaking from the #2. I think he’s there with specific intent to slam into Brownie at the break and knock him out of the race.
WHY isn’t there a graded earnings threshhold for the Belmont? If Big Brown is interferred with by that #2 horse, I think it should be seriously concidered.
I wish that Empire Maker colt was in the race…Roman Empire? I like him, and I was counting on the good old Sir Barton(now Barbaro)/Belmont angle!
Roman Emperor? I was kind of thinking he’d draw in as well – especially since he beat Da’ Tara in a stretch duel in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness Day. He’s bred for the Belmont, but I don’t think he’d have any chance against Big Brown.
bold prediction;
1==dennis of cork
2==casno drive
3== big brown
casino drive runs big brown into the ground from the final turn to the quater pole and dennis picks up the pieces. the only reason casino does not go on is lack of seasoning. big brown hangs on for a tiring 3rd.
kevin fat chance huh???
this is fun never been on a blog before hope i make some sense. just wish i could spell better. lol
Hey man, you nail that trifecta and you’ll look like the smartest man alive – and I feel your pain on spelling – I’m awful about it in the comments. Thankfully the posts themselves have a spellcheck feature, but even then I’m known to bastardize a decent word or two.