THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Note: Breaking news just as I was about to leave:  Casino Drive may be out of the Belmont:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

Saturday.  Belmont Day. Triple Crown Day…perhaps a date with history. Thirteen races are scheduled, with the feature of course being the 140th running of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes – a race that will see Big Brown try to become the first colt in 30 years to capture the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.  There are 5 other graded stakes on the card, including the Just a Game (G1), The Acorn (G1), the True North Handicap (G2), the Woody Stephens (G2), and the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1). 

Some of the finest names in all of horse racing will be on the track in addition to Big Brown. The Acorn has drawn Indian Blessing, long thought to be the finest filly in the country before Proud Spell was able to turn the tables on her back in March. The True North Handicap features one of the fastest horses on the planet in Benny the Bull. Last, but certainly not least, the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap features what could be the final run in the magnificent career of “Blackie”, better known to many as Better Talk Now.

I’ve handicapped the first 11 races on the card, culminating in the Belmont Stakes. I figured I’d be battling traffic out the track by the time that was over, or (knock on wood) standing in line to cash a few tickets.  I’m headed up to NY in just a few hours, so I wanted to share this with you as quick as possible.  You guys will have over 24 hours to dissect/discuss/debate. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at each race. 

Race 1:  ALW 65000 N1X  – 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

• #1 Desert Key/ #1A Forest of Dreams (3/1*)
• #11 Accredit (4/1)
• #7 Commandeered (7/2)

If both portions of the entry of #1 Desert Key and #1A Forest of Dreams draw into the race, they look quite formidable to overcome.  Of the two, I prefer #1 Desert Key who looks slightly more consistent and with only 3 races under hist belt is eligible to move forward.  Note that Desert Key finished behind Ready’s Image by 3/4 of a length last out.  You may want to use this colt as a measuring stick for how well Ready’s Image may perform as the 2/1 favorite in today’s 9th race – the Woody Stephens (G2).  #11 Accredit has been a solid colt thus far in his career.  Really only  his debut was of poor quality. He appears to have been training well over the synthetics as of late, and his Beyer figures could improve with a return to dirt today.  #7 Commandeered took some play in the Hirsch Jacobs (G3) on Preakness day, despite being up against two quick ones in Lantana Mob and Force Freeze (not to mention Silver Edition – who we will also see in today’s 9th race).  A longshot to keep an eye on may be #8 Golden Age.  That debut Beyer figure of 95 hints at talent, although he’ll face quite a bit more than Md Sp Wt $16k company today.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 62k 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #6 Tiz It (5/2*)
• #4 White Tie (6/1)
• #2 Zong (6/1)

This race is pretty wide open. I don’t usually like to take the favorite in maiden races, but for a maiden #6 Tiz It has been up against some stiff competition in his 5 lifetime starts.  Just look at those names in his past performance lines:  Massive Drama, Smoth Air, Silver Edition, Halo Najib.  I like that he perked up a bit last time out here and ran a 99 Beyer, although buyers must be ware as his last highest Beyer (90) was promptly followed with a career bounce (60).  I settled on two expensive purchases for my 2nd and 3rd choices, although I think there are a number of ways folks could go.  #4 White Tie was a $1.3 million purchase in August of 2006.  It looks like he’s been working well in the mornings and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is known to be productive with 1st time starters.  Likewise, #2 Zong was a $1.7 million purchase in November of 2005. Besides these two, I think #7 Sixthirteen (7/2), #3 Bob’s Star (5/1), and #10 Golden Weekend (3/1) were all very playable as well.

Race 3: Md Sp Wt 57k – 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles – Inner Turf Track)

• #4 Piazza Di Spagna (5/1)
• #8 Smart Enuf (8/5*)
• #5 Seeking No More (6/1)

This was a weird race to handicap.  I settled on #4 Piazza Di Spagna as I thought he might perk up a bit wirh Ramon Dominguez aboard if he could get  a clean trip.  I also thought he had the more favorable post position for the inner turf track than some of the other contenders.  #8 Smart Enuf returns to the grass, which should help him, plus he’ll likely be on or near the lead.   #5 Seeking No More was running hurdles in 2 of his last 3.  If nothing else he ought to have the conditioning for this event as he was running over 2 miles in each of those races. For a longer shot, call me crazy, but the #9 Marsaponi has room to improve after joining trainer Thomas Bush’s barn.  Note that while he hasn’t run well, he was facing Icabad Crane (3rd place finisher in the Preakness) and Cannonball.   I’d expect improvement today.

Race 4: OC 50k/N2X – 3↑ (1 Mile)

• #4 Forefathers (3/1*)
• #6 Mobo (4/1)
• #11 Teide (5/1)

Today’s 4th race is an interesting affair.  #4 Forefathers looks plenty dangerous here dropping in from Grade 3 territory.  This is a guy who’s faced the likes of Daaher, Deadly Dealer, Elite Squadron, and Midnight Lute.  He’s capable of turning in duds, but this ought to set him up nicely. Note how he ran a triple digit Beyer (100) when dropped into Alw48000 territory back in March. He should be able to get a nice off-the pace trip running into some decent splits today.   #6 Mobo  has turned in two stellar double digit win performances in a row, winning by a combined 22 lengths.  Sure it gets harder today, but any kind of step forward will find this one being tough to defeat.  There is a bit of pace pressure in this race when looking at the form, but this guy has pulled away beautifully in the stretch each of those last two, not just held on begging for the wire.  #11 Teide draws the extreme outside, but has turned in several sharp races in a row.  Sure he was beaten chalk last out, and in fact beaten by another of today’s rivals (#6 Firejack), but that was over the synthetic track at Keeneland, so it’s really almost a toss.

Race 5: Alw 59000 N1X – 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #4 Wonforthegoodguys (15/1)
• #9 Too Tough Pete (5/1)
• #12 Benny the Waiter (3/1*)

Did I really wind up on a 15/1 here?  It appears so – although this guy isn’t really a bad 15/1 when you look at him. #4 Wonforthegoodguys has been a tough claiming competitor for the entire year, and has been pretty consistent if you toss out that start three back.  His Beyer’s may not be sexy, but they aren’t that far off what it would take to win here.  Plus he’s got an inspiring name. I like him.  #9 Too Tough Pete exits a maiden score over the track last time out and has been well bet in each lifetime start.  #12 Benny the Waiter almost looks like Benny the Bull light – okay maybe not.  But he sounds like him, doesn’t he?  Is this a Benny-filled day?  Dare I say – Beneful? 

Race 6:  The True North Handicap – Grade 2 – 3YO  (6 Furlongs)

• #7 Benny the Bull (4/5*)
• #4 Abraaj (5/1)
• #2 Thor’s Echo (7/2)

Benny the Bull is one of the fastest horses on earth and should be a force to contend with here.  Perhaps the only thing his rivals can hope for is a “Dubai bounce” as he returns from a score in the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen (Grade 1). #4 Abraaj would appear to be the only entry with the speed figures capable of contending.  Even so, he’s stepping up today and would need a career best to contend. #2 Thor’s Echo could be a player if he returns to the form he showed in 2006.  The trouble is that he’s shown nothing of note since, including two less than appealing starts in Dubai in 2007 and nothing so far in 2008. He has been training well though. A longshot that I don’t think is getting the credit he deserves is #6 Council Member at 20/1.  This guy is coming off non embarrassing Stakes tries and could well wind up in the money.  I’ll say the same about #5 Suave Jazz who was a neck away from winning on Preakness day.   Don’t discount these guys totally from hitting for minor shares.

Race 7: The Just A Game – Grade 1 – Fillies and Mares 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

• #10 Vacare (3/1*)
• #5 Criminologist (9/2)
• #1 Lady of Venice (4/1)

#10 Vacare looks to be the one to beat here. She’s faced some of the better older females in the country, including Precious Kitten, Wait a While, and an old favorite of mine I still wish was running – Citronnade. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but she’s classy enough to handle it. #1 Lady of Venice is a fighter who lately has been settling for minor awards.  #5 Criminologist looks tough to me here today.  She’s won 5 of her last 6 races! I wouldn’t discount several others from winding up in the money here either, such as #3 Bit of Whimsy, and #4 Ventura.

Race 8: The Acorn – Grade 1 – Fillies 3YO (1 Mile)

• #2 Indian Blessing (1/1*)
• #3 Game Face (5/2)
• #1 Zaftig (3/1)

Don’t be too fooled by the 5 horse field and the presence of one of the top fillies in the nation in #3 Indian Blessing – this one actually could be a battle. Indian Blessing cutting back to a mile should be enough to ensure the victory, but she’s running into some improving fillies in #1 Zaftig and #3 Game Face.  I wouldn’t leave #5 Golden Doc A totally out of it either as she’s given Indian Blessing all she can handle in the past as well.  This one is tougher than it seems, although it is Indian Blessing’s to lose. 

Race 9: The Woody Stephens – Grade 2 – 3YO (7 Furlongs)

•  #5 J Be K (3/1)
• #3 Silver Edition (5/1)
• #2 Ready’s Image (2/1*)

The Woody Stephens looks wide open to me.  I think you’ve got a slightly vulnerable favorite here in Ready’s Image.  At one point last year this was one of the better 2 year-old colts in the nation.  I like his comeback in May over the track, but the competition gets tougher today. #5 J Be K has been getting better and better each time I see him.  Okay, he’s got one hiccup in the Louisiana Derby, but besides that he’s fired every time out.  The horse he lost to last time out, Harlem Rocker, is partially owned by a friend and fellow TBA blogger, and is a horse many of us thought might have the best chance to knock off Big Brown in the Preakness if he had run.  That’s definitely something to keep in mind.  #3 Silver Edition has been on the improve as well.  I saw his run on Preakness Day where he lost by a neck and thought it was most impressive.  A longshot to keep an eye on in the post parade is #9 Majestic Warrior.  At one point last year he was my pick for the 2008 KY Derby (we’re talking December ’07/January ’08 here - long before folks were even thinking of Big Brown).  I always expect better from him, and one of these days his talent will show up.  It’s just trying to figure out when that is maddening.

Race 10: The Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap – Grade 1 – 3↑ (1 1/4 Miles – Inner Turf)

• #9 Proudinsky (7/2*)
• #5 Out of Control ((4/1)
• #10 Dancing Forever (5/1)

This is actually a sentimental race for me.  You see, one of my favorite horses on earth is racing in what for all I know could be his last start. Certainly it will be the last time I see him again.  #1 Better Talk  Now.  While he doesn’t come up in my picks, “Blackie” has given us a lifetime’s worth of memories, as evidenced by his 14 wins and $4 million in lifetime earnings.   Run well, buddy- it’s been such an honor to see you perform.  Looking at the race I thought #9 Proudinksy warrants favorite status here after being able to defeat Daytona.  #5 Out of Control  has run well against the likes of Einstein and Kip Deville- who are two of the tops in their division.  #10 Dancing Forever is right there with the leaders based on his last two.  I ranked him a notch lower due to the outside post position.  Keep an eye on #4 Stalingrad at 20/1.  I’ve heard some folks whispering that they think this guy could continue to improve. 

Race 11: The Belmont Stakes – Grade 1 – 3YO (1 1/2 Miles)

• #1 Big Brown (2/5*)
• #5 Casino Drive (7/2)
• #4 Denis of Cork (12/1)

Well here it is – the feature race andour date with destiny. Can Big Brown bring home the Triple Crown?  Oh, you bet he can.  I’m not worried about the post – I’ll never worry about the post again with this colt after he overcame the 20 hole in the Derby – although to be honest, I’d much prefer he were hung outside again today.  There shouldn’t be anyone close to him as he hits the wire.  #5 Casino Drive is your logical play in the exacta.  It’ll be interesting to see how this guy stacks up against Big Brown.  He’s certainly bred for the Belmont.  I thought there were several horses you could use underneath, including Macho Again, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Ready’s Echo, and Icabad Crane.  Ultimately I went with Denis of Cork – but it’s anyone’s guess.

EDIT: Just before I left the house, word has come that Casino Drive may be out – looks like Big Brown’s a lock now!

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

So there you have it folks.  Hopefully we can all make some money and watch history in the making.  Years from now you may find yourself telling stories about where you were when Big Brown won the Triple Crown.  I know we’ve discussed and debated Big Brown, Dutrow, and everything in between at length.   As racing fans, just make sure you sit back and enjoy the spectacle that’s been 30 years in the making. 

Riders up!