Things just got a tad more difficult for the defending Horse of the Year in his 2008 U.S. Debut. Already up against it, so to speak, from a weight disadvantage, the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike has now drawn the rail post position for Saturday’s running of the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.
Why is this significant? Well, consider for a moment that two times we’ve really seen Curlin stuck to the inside, he’s had some problems. I’m of course referring to the opening moments of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, where he broke from the 2 hole, and his stretch battle with the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes.
During a pre-race interview for the Dubai World Cup, jockey Robby Albarado indicated that Curlin is a horse that seems to prefer running on the outside. He likes to get horses on the lead in his sights and unleash his runs from around 4 to 5 wide when possible. Moreover, Albarado indicated that Curlin doesn’t like being whipped on his left side - something that might prove a problem if he’s got horses in tight quarters to his right as they turn for home.
All of this is starting to add up to a difficult challenge for Curlin on Saturday. Where once this seemed it would be a walk in the park against a field that was intimidated about facing him, you have to think that there are owners and trainers licking their lips now thinking they just might have a shot at beating him.
Everything will come down to his positioning as they turn for home. Let’s not mistake this. Curlin is the best dirt horse in the world. That fact is not debatable any more. Still, if we’ve learned anything over the last few weeks, it’s that even the best are capable of encountering hardship in any given race. I still expect him to prevail, and as Curlin is my favorite horse of all-time, I’ll be cheering my guts out for him as they turn for home, but I have to be honest here and say that I’m more worried about the setup in the Stephen Foster than I was when Curlin took on the best in the world in the Dubai World Cup. In other words, this won’t be a piece of cake.
The field for the Stephen Foster looks as follows:
- Curlin (Robby Albarado)
- Delightful Kiss (Miguel Mena)
- Sam P (Kent Desormeaux)
- Einstein (Julien Leparoux)
- Grasshopper (Garrett Gomez)
- High Blues (Corey Lanerie)
- Red Rock Creek (Shaun Bridgmohan)
- Jonesboro (Jamie Thierot)
- Barcoloa (Jesus L. Castanon)
- Brass Hat (Calvin Borel)
Hey Kevin…I couldn’t agree with you more that this is no walkover for the Big Horse. However, if he brings his A game, I expect him to prevail despite the weight imposte & post position.
As we just witnessed in the Belmont, again, there is no such thing as a sure thing in horseracing. I enjoyed your post-race commentary…though the “fix was in” speculation ( I admit…it crossed my mind momentarily) I discarded as more worthy of a novel…than “real” life…and I’m no cabbage patch doll.
Let’s root Curlin home on Saturday, eh? Love to see him sparkle against this good field…
Some horses can handle hot weather, some can’t. Curlin is a mature horse and clearly the best on paper. Lack of experience might have caused the defeat in the Derby. The Belmont loss probably resulted from not being acclimated to the surface combined with Albarado giving the filly every chance to stay in the race by not doing what Garcia did with Da’ Tara.
If the Belmont was a fix job i’d be all for it. It’s the only way the stables are gonna get a share of what the tracks may be looting from the tote through odds fixing, which is BTW where Mike B. probably got his ML odds for the Derby.
@Steve G - Amen brother - I promise that if you’re within decibel range of Hanover, PA on Saturday you’ll hear me screaming my butt off “send him Robby!!!!! Go get ‘em Curlin!!!!!”
@Don Swanson - good points. I’m sure Curlin will be able to handle it as he certainly has matured into something special to behold.
Regarding “the fix” - I still don’t think it was really in, I just think it should be considered a bit more than some seem to be willing to do.