As of right now the plan with the defending U.S. Horse of the Year seems to be a run in the world’s richest race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in France on October 5. Usually the Dubai World Cup, which Curlin has already won, is known as the world’s richest horse race. This year due to a sponsorship from the nation of Qatar, the purse for the Arc has been boosted to a whopping $6,172,800.
Needless to say, a victory in the Arc would rocket Curlin to a stratospheric level of lifetime earnings, far beyond the $603,015 that he currently trails Cigar by on the all-time standings. In a larger sense though, much more is at stake if indeed Curlin goes in the Arc. The horse that I’ve loved beyond all others from the moment I first laid eyes on him would be looking to cement his status as one of the greatest race horses to have ever lived. A win in the Arc would make such a claim very difficult to refute as it would mean the colt had defeated the best the world could muster on both dirt and turf.
Originally run in 1920 to commemorate the Allied victory in World War 1, The Arc would be a daunting challenge for Curlin. Not only would he be trying the grass against some of the best turf horses in the world, but he’d have to run clockwise around the racecourse – mirror opposite to what he’s used to here in the U.S. He’ll also have to contend with a 1 1/2 mile distance – a distance he hasn’t tried since being nosed by the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. Luckily for Curlin, his bloodlines would appear to be right for a run in the Arc. Since 1994 no horse without a direct bloodline connection to Nearco and his grandson Northern Dancer has prevailed in the Arc. Northern Dancer just happens to be Curlin’s great-great-grandfather on his dam’s side (Sherrif’s Deputy). Also noteworthy is the fact that Curlin and turf specialist English Channel share the same father (Smart Strike).
Before we get carried away with visions of grandeur this Autumn in France, let’s look at what the road ahead for the talented 4 year-old son of Smart Strike might look like. For starters, trainer Steve Asmussen has indicated that Curlin will next race on the weekend of July 12th/July 13th. Exactly where still remains a bit of a question. The most likely scenario in my mind would be an entry into the G3 Arlington Handicap for his first try on the grass. Another option remains the G2 Man O’ War Stakes at Belmont Park that same weekend. If they decide to go in the Man O’ War, Curlin will be following in the footsteps of perhaps racing’s biggest legend: the great Secretariat.
Most people remember Secretariat for his scintillating Triple Crown run, capped off by his amazing 31 length victory in the Belmont. What some fans forget is that “Big Red” also proved he was world-class on the turf. In fact, Secretariat’s first turf victory came when he set the track record during the Man O’ War Stakes at Belmont Park. What better shoes for a chestnut colt like Curlin to follow in his quest for greatness than those of Secretariat?
It goes without saying that the challenges will be plenty, but honestly if there’s one colt I’ve seen in my life who can overcome everything thrown at him, it’s Curlin. Consider for a moment everything this colt has had to face in order to arrive where he is today, able to ponder the prospects of taking on the best of the world on turf after proving himself the world’s best on dirt:
- He was unraced as a 2-year-old due to sore shins, and then brought back very slowly by original trainer Helen Pitts.
- After getting beat by 7 lengths in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he returned to catch Derby winner Street Sense at the wire by a nose in the 2007 Preakness
- After losing by a neck to the filly Rags to Riches in the Belmont, and then returning from his Triple Crown campaign with a flat (by Curlin’s standards) effort in the Haskell – Curlin returned to defeat the top older-male in the nation at the time, Lawyer Ron, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This was no small task. Lawyer Ron was red-hot at the time coming off two career best performances.
- In a stacked field on Breeder’s Cup day in the slop at Monmouth, Curlin powered away to win convincingly over all of his rvials, including Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, and Any Given Saturday.
- Curlin then took significant time off before shipping to Dubai and winning for fun in the Jaguar Trophy and the $6 million Dubai World Cup.
- Finally, Curlin returned home from the Middle-East and overcame an assignment of 128 pounds to win easily in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill on Saturday.
It’s hard to believe when looking at that body of work that this colt was unraced just 16 months ago. Clearly he’s a one-of-a-kind colt that has answered the bell thus far. Without question he is the best dirt horse in the universe at the moment. Can you imagine what might happen if he were to beat the best of the world on grass as well?
It’s been a long, long time since the sport of thoroughbred horse racing had a star like this. The world will be watching with eager anticipation to see how Curlin takes to the grass in several weeks, either in Chicago or in New York. Wherever it may be, the hopes of racing fans worldwide will rest upon Curlin’s massive shoulders. If all goes well, I plan on making the journey to see his first attempt on the grass, as he’ll no doubt need the encouragement from his fans.
Whether you’re a die-hard fan of horse racing, or a casual observer with a passing interest, realize that you are looking at a horse who when all is said and done, may well find himself atop the list of all-time greats.
keven; way over the top curlin is a nice horse but as good as secretatiat alidar seattle slew. what if the purses today were what they were today? curlin won 1 race in the triple crown and lost to a filly. what if vindication empire maker and my favorite point given would have gone as older horses. given for a questionable ride and short on training point given would have won the crown. granted curlin has run against some good ones but has not dominated them. glc
kevin 1 more point do you really think curlin is better than the great crown winners secretariat comes to mind 31 lengths at the belmont track records that hold today at 2 of the tracks and 1 disputed track record at pimlico. its nice to like a horse but really curlin the best ever???? i hear a bubble bursting. glc
still not better than Ghostzapper!
Curlin is not a half to English Channel.
@Gerald – not sure where you’re getting that I think he’s better than Secretariat from. I don’t recall saying that.
My closing statement of “when all is said and done may well find himself atop the list of all-time greats” should be taken to mean that if he beats the best of the world on grass in the Arc, to go along with his world and U.S. championships on dirt – then yes, at that point in time I think he’d be deserving of consideration at least, as that would be quite an accomplishment.
I’ve never said anywhere in the post that he’s better than Secretariat or any other of the TC winners for that matter. In fact, since this invariably comes up the minute you whisper anything about great horses, that’s why on my “about” page I talk about how I wasn’t alive to see the TC winners of the past – so for me Curlin’s the best I’ve known. And he just keeps getting better. But – this post was not in any way, shape, or form meant to be taken as “Curlin’s better than Secretariat” post. I’m really baffled as to how it could be taken as such?
@Greg – the horsie “half” thing always gets me, even to this day. In my mind they are half brothers as they both share the same daddy, Smart Strike. I’ve edited to correct. Thankfully this isn’t my day job.
@Brian – funny you should mentoin Ghostzapper. I came very close to talking about him in this post as well as he has some interesting parallels. From being brought back to racing after winning the horse of the year, to his victories in stakes like the Met Handicap…not to mention that mind blowing 128 Beyer Speed figure at Monmouth. He’s a great one for sure. Amy and I were talking a bit at lunch today about what 10 horses from recent memory we’d want to see in a dream race. No doubt Ghostzapper would be one of ‘em.
brian; its simple to me dollars won don`t mean zip to me as too times and records the best measure is speed figures beyers, time form, bris, and the ones i use trackmaster on tvg. beyers is probably the most trusted. 152 was the beyer that was created after the fact on the 73 belmont. i have only seen 2 horses get 125 or better in 2 strait races. skipawy and best pal. my point being you have to rate all time horses on speed an quality oppenents. thats were curlin falls short but older horses get better if they stay sound. i will root for your favorite while i hope for point given to prove his worth in the barn.
Don’t worry about it, the half brother thing is a mistake we all make once. Curlin is not really bred all that well for the turf, but a horse of his class transcends breeding. If he goes on to win the Arc it would be the greatest accomplishment in racing in the last 20 years. Looking forward to the race.
Cheers for Mr. Jess Jackson………………….
And just think, just after winning the Classic, he and Mr. Asmussen
where already talking about the Arc………
Wow………..That surely wasnt on my mind after the classic…..
WAY TO GO CURLIN………….
I would prefer to compare Curlin to Ferdinand, a Derby/BCC winner. Curlin like Ferdinand has a leading turf sire and a female family that raced primarily on dirt and like Ferdinand was an off-pace type well suited to 10F. English Channel is a half brother from a French decended female family. First time on turf, Ferdinand ran 12F in a Gr-1 against good horses, ran out to the lead and hung late as the well backed favorite. The second time at 9F, he wound up close to a slow pace and the Gr-1 caliber leader (the royally bred Al Mamoon) simply ran away from him late. When a dirt horse switches to turf it’s probably a good idea not to run against top company or to monkey with the distance.
Soldier Of Fortune OTOH is a good future prospect for the Arc having won the Irish Dby and Coronation S both at 12F, and bred to run all day.
The Arlington Hcp Gr-3, the Million and the Champion S along with the Japan Cup Dirt might be better targets since all of them are run at Curlins’ best distance which AFAICT projects to be about 10.5F. Problem here is that these top 10F races tend to get horses like Storming Home, Literato, Powerscourt, Indian Skimmer and other assorted top class monsters.
All of his races this year have been light workouts. The Dubai World Cup was a joke. The Arc will be the real deal if he even makes it that far. At least if he suffers a defeat in the meantime they can just blame it on the turf. If he does run in the Arc, somebody at one of the major networks needs to make sure it gets televised here in the states -and I’m not taking about TVG.
We still have no idea how good Curlin is. They were trying to set track records with Secretariat -particularly in the Belmont after being denied the track record by a clock malfunction in the Preakness. Turcotte said they were racing the clock. That would never happen these days. Does anybody think Robby Albarado would let Curlin win a race by 31 lengths? He’d be wrapped up and win by five. Anyway let’s hope he stays sound and is up to the task for his tough challenges ahead.
man this is a great site some very good observations on curlins future keep it so. we are all still learning. i`m 40 years into this game and learn something everyday. this site is a great tool keven keep it up. glc
It’s amazing how many horseplayers and racing fans have such incredibly long memories…you would think everyone was in attendance at Belmont in 1973 when Secretariat wow’d the world…
Either that, or traditionalists simply become inquisitors when anyone, in whatever context, names a horse & uses the two words “all time” in the same sentence…lol.
Then, after having been completely misread, the obligatory defense (quite unnecessary, imo) that, no, I wasn’t comparing Curlin to Secretariat…when in fact, you never even said it.
If Curlin can overcome the significant obstacles & actually gets into the starting gate in France for the Arc…and wins, especially within the context of “today’s game…” Well, any and all comparisons will be legitimate, in my opinion. However, the horse could literally jump over the moon & land safely back on earth…and there would still be people who would ask…well, how many pounds was he carrying…
Hey Kevin: Great post! I’d love to see him run in the Arlington Million. Hope you played Barcola in a tri on Saturday. I cold decked him in an exacta with Curlin on a big ticket (by my standards) and had to say that was a tough beat. Should have played a tri too!
Curlin lost the Haskell after running in the slow paced Belmont. The Stephen Foster was nearly as pathetic (:25, 1:13:2.) I know he was eager to go faster and was under a snug hold, but he still may need a race before he can handle a 1:10 or 1:11 pace. As a handicapper that bases so much on pace, I’d see him at big disadvantage in his next race. Hopefully he doesn’t run against anybody as tough as Big Brown.
I used to enjoy horseracing and handicapping some years ago and I felt that it was the only form of gambling in which it was possible to make a consistent profit.
You write with enthusiasm and love ~ so what can I say but “wonderful”
henry
“If Curlin can overcome the significant obstacles & actually gets into the starting gate in France for the Arc…and wins”
The historical facts tend to weigh against Curlin winning against top class horses going long on turf here, there, or anywhere. Winning the Arl Million would be a huge accomplishment all by itself. Claiming “best in the world” requires winning the Champion S, the Arc or the Melbourne Cup.
The Foster Hcp should’ve been downgraded years ago. Barcola is a listed caliber horse with speed figures to match. And there can be no comparison to Secretariat, a 2yo champion and triple crown winner.
Wow – thanks for all the comments, guys.
Don- you’re one of the best pace handicappers I know, so now I”m really worried about Curlin running in the Arc.
@Kevin – Oh yeah, nailed that tri-although I was very upset when Einstein nosed Barcola for 2nd. I figured that probably burned a lot of exactas. I tend to try the trifectas just because of the usual bigger payouts. They seemed the logical 3 to play so I put both Barcola and Einstein in 2nd and 3rd. Thank god!
By the way – to any readers with an a love for the history of horse racing, do make sure you check out Kevin’s blog “Colin’s Ghost” – it’s phenomenal!
http://www.colinsghost.org/
@ Jerry – BB is the only dirt horse in the U.S. that would worry me in a matchup with Curlin, although I’d like to see Heatseeker and Curlin go at it at some point as well.
@Soul Merlin – You have no idea how much such comments mean to me. I totally agree as well, although I do dabble quite a bit in fantasy football – even though that’s not really hardcore gambling. Not much of a cards or slots player as I just can’t really get into them, and I don’t bet on any other sports. Handicapping horse races is fun for me whether I bet or not. I usually end up betting at least a small $2 wager or two though.
@Steve – yes indeed – although I try to stay away from making direct comparisons to the horses of yesteryear if at all possible. I just wish I had been alive during the sport’s glory days so I could’ve seen some of the TC winners of the past.
Don, I agree with your specific points, including your thoughts about the Foster…
As to the Arc…aside from the “sporting” comments I have read ( and with which I agree…to an extent. I do not make Mr. Jackson as solely a “sportsman.”)
Well, in the context of celestial bodies vis a vis horseracing…the Arc would be like jumping over the moon. I wonder if Curlin’s stud deal will “eclipse” the combined deals of SS, HS & AGS…should he accomplish such an improbable feat?
lol this site should be called all curlin al the time lol
I know, I know….what can I say – he inspires me to no end.