THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

It’s Friday night once again! God how I love Friday nights watching racing at Hollywood Park on TVG.  We’ve got 8 races on the card to kickoff what should be a gorgeous weekend.  Even if the card looks a little chalk heavy, you can always expect Friday nights to be rather crazy at “the wood.”

Race1:  Clm 40000 - F+M 4↑ (1 1/8 Miles - Turf)

• #6 Bye Bye Ladies (5/2)
• #3 Mark Set Go (2/1*)
• #1 Angeletta (7/2)

I’m expecting a bit of a pace duel here between #4 Exclusive Daniel (7/2) and #5 Dine at Nine (6/1).  For this reason I went with #6 Bye Bye Ladies as the top selection as I thought she’d get a nice shot to stalk and have first run at the field turning for home.  I’m not sure how she’ll respond to the removal of the hood, but trainer Jeff Mullins is 33% with blinkers off.  #3 Mark Set Go will likely be just behind Bye Bye Ladies and the race could well come down to which of these two mares wants it more in the stretch.  Note that Mark Set Go has burned some backers as a chalk, so be careful before accepting her at too low a price.  #1 Angeletta will need the expected pace scenario to play out as she is more of a closing type.  Running for show is probably her ceiling today.  Of the aforementioned speed horses, I prefer #4 Exclusive Danielle to hang around and have a chance for the lesser spots on the trifecta. 

Race 2:  Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

• #2 Pass Me the Sugar (9/2)
• #4 Charlotta (10/1)
• #8 Spring Catch (3/1*)

Cheap maiden claimers.  I seldom accept the favorite in such fields unless she stands out, and I didn’t think that was the case here. #2 Pass Me the Sugar drops from the $62k level where she showed some ability in her 2007 debut before being sidelined.  Not sure what went wrong, but she’s been training well and the tandem of jockey Joe Talamo and trainer Brian Koriner are hitting at 41% at Hollywood Park over the last year.  #4 Charlotta is another I think is capable of improving tonight.  She had a bad post position in her 2nd race but still showed some talent.  I’d like to see some better workouts, but at least she’s dropping a smidge in class.  #8 Spring Catch can’t be totally discarded.  She’s been banging on the door and tonight could be the night she kicks it in.  She’ll likely be bet fairly heavily based on her last two efforts, so beat her to score here in the 2nd race.  A couple of others I’d like to see in the post parade include #12 Serbiana (5/1), #10 Sidra Holland (8/1), and 5 Our Storm (6/1) - any of these are candidates to move forward and I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger if one were to  make a favorable post parade impression.

Race 3: Alw 58000C F+M 4↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs):

• #4 Lemon Kiss (6/5*)
• #2 Kalookan Dancer (5/2)
• #5 Zilla (3/1)

Well, I was really hoping to pick an upset here as my early edition of the DRF had #2 Kalookan Dancer listed as the likely favorite.  Alas, it’s #4 Lemon Kiss who gets that honor, and I don’t disagree at all.  I love to play older siblings of Lemon Drop Kid these days.  Her last three races look exceptional, she’s got Bejarano as the jockey , and bullet workouts and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer seal the deal.  Looks like a potential single on the multi-race wagers to me.  #2 Kalookan Dancer will be on the gas early for sure.  The question is, can she hold?  I wouldn’t be too harsh about those last two efforts as they were against better competition.  This race should come down to whether or not she can hold off Lemon Kiss in the lane.  #5 Zilla looks like the best of the rest on paper.  I’d probably play #3 Catherin’s Hope underneath as well as if she woke up a tad she’d be able to threaten for a money placement.

Race 4: Md 25000 3↑ (7 Furlongs)

• #14 Fire Scout (8/1)
• #2 Hasty Court (9/2)
• #6 Stag On the Run (7/2*)

Another cheap maiden claimer where I think you can catch a price.  This time we get boys for the first race of the night, and hopefully I’ve picked the right one.  I liked #14 Fire Scout because his first race showed he had some potential.  Trainer Brian Koriner knows how to win with 2nd time starters, and when coupled with what looks like a hint of ability here and jockey Joe Talamo, I’ll jump aboard myself at 8/1.  The post position stinks though - although we’ll probably get a decent break out of the gate.  #2 Hasty Court looks like one poised to move forward.  Note how John Sadler has been dropping him in class trying to find the right spot - and he’s been responding well.  His recent workouts also look plenty useful. #6 Stag On the Run just doesn’t look like a winner on paper, although his last two efforts certainly place him among the contenders here.  Who knows, perhaps tonight is his night.  I wouldn’t take him at a low price though as he’s never finished strongly in 9 career races. 

Race 5: Clm 20000 F 3YO (1 1/16 Miles)

• #8 Hottodi (4/1)
• #7 Applaud Dubai (12/1)
• #6 Princess Susan M (5/1)

This one looks wide open to me.  I could make a case for over half the field here.  I thought #8 Hottodi would get a clean break from the outside and could sit a nice trip stalking the early pace.   The last effort is disappointing to support in making her a top selection, but I feel we haven’t seen her best running yet.  Something happened in that May 2 race as she didn’t return to workouts until June 1st.  If she’s back in shape, hopefully she should have every chance here against $20k claimers.  #7 Applaud Dubai will be coming late and is probably more of a play underneath on the exactas.  Still, 3 out of her last 4 finishes have been good enough to strongly consider here.  #6 Princess Susan M might get overlooked by bettors despite the presence of an 80 Beyer speed figure in her last race.  I don’t think you can toss her and the slight class drop might boost her forward again, although you always have to worry about a bounce.   #3 Dances With Tigers (5/1) and #4 Queen Holly (3/1*) look like logical contenders as well.  Tough race to build a trifecta aroundin my opinion and not the kind of start to the late pick 4 I was hoping to see.  Very dangerous - go deep and stay alive is my advice.

Race 6: Md Sp Wt 48k 3↑ (6 Furlongs - Turf)

• #3 Zetterberg (5/2*)
• #11 Exclusive Pleasure (3/1)
• #10 Ginobili (9/2)

One thing is certain - San Antonio Spurs fans will be all over #10 Ginobili in here, and he’s certainly got a shot dropping in class off back-to-back in the money performances.  Ultimately I sided with #3 Zetterberg, who has burned before but I remain convinced is a decent horse.  He’s moving up to the $48k level today - which is opposite of what you might expect, but he’s really only ran one bad race and look at some of the colts that beat him:  Tres Borrachos (2008 Preakness contender), and Into Mischief - not to mention Medjool).  I think tonight is Zetterberg’s night. #11 Elusive Pleasure posted an 84 Beyer in his debut after being “off bit slow” according to the running lines.  Watch out - if that’s a slow start performance, I can’t wait to see what he’ll run with a clean trip.  Note the speedy workouts as well.  Again, I know the outside is usually a negative, but with a horse that has had problems breaking from the inside before, perhaps it’s just what the doctor ordered? 

Race 7: Clm 25000 3YO (7 Furlongs)

• #2 Drewthegentleman (2/1*)
• #6 Rasgado (3/1)
• #4 Mountain Route (4/1)

I really wanted to play “beat the favorite” here, as these types of claimers are known to take turns beating each other, but I nonetheless wound up with #2 Drewthegentleman as my top choice.  Admittedly that’s based largely on his last race after he dropped to this level.  These are 3-year-olds so improvement is still possible from the entire field.  #6 Rasgadois a hit or miss type.  It looks to me like they’ve finally got him straightened out, although this is the type that I hesitate before putting any money on.  #4 Mountain Route has been coming along well.  He could be closing well late cleaning up whoever in front is falling apart. 

Race 8: Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

• #4 Mrs. Tiz (6/1)
• #1 Alotta Wild (3/1*)
• #3 Freebiehadthemoves (8/1)

We finish the night with more maiden fillies and mares.  I’ll use #4 Mrs. Tiz as my top choice.  Yes that last race was awful, but clearly something went drastically wrong to be shelved over an entire year.  Usually I’d avoid such a runner like the plague in their first start back, but c’mon - we’re talking $25k maiden claimers here.  If there’s ever a spot to play such a horse, it’s here.  Something got Bejarano to take the mount, andI tend to trust trainer Doug O’ Neill as a horsemen.  This play is just a hunch, and hopefully the post parade will give us more clues as to just how ready she is.  #1 Alotta Wild looks very dangerous if you scratch that last race.  The class drop should wake her up and she looks like a worthy favorite to me compared to the rest of the field.  #3 Freebiehadthemoves took no money at the windows in her debut and didn’t exactly make anyone’s jaw drop. Still, the Beyer wasn’t horrible for a debut run at this level, and we do get D-Flo (David Flores) aboard.  I can’t find much else in this field to support, so for what it’s worth, I’ll make her my 3rd choice.

As always - best of luck and be sure to check for late scratches/changes.  Let’s get this weekend started off with a bang!