THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Five horses will compete in the Grade 3 Cinema Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday. The field will travel 1 1/8 miles over the turf course at Hollywood in what looks to be a race that is all about the pace.  The field for the Cinema Handicap is as follows:

1. Polonius (J.K. Court) 9/5*
2. Ez Dreamer (C.Nakatani) 4/1
3. Tiz West (V. Espinoza) 3/1
4. Robscaravic (J. Rosario) 5/1
5. Liberian Freighter (R. Bejarano) 5/2

Here’s the deal. If Polonius can get to an easy lead in this one than the race is probably over right then and there. Thankfully, things may not quite be so simple.  The presence of Liberian Freighter to the outside may ensure either a pace duel between he and Polonius or at the least some pace pressure.  I expect it will be the latter rather than the former. 

Polonius exits a very impressive score in the G3 Will Rogers where he defeated two of today’s main rivals in Ez Dreamer and Tiz West, as well as the longshot of the field in Robscarvic.  He also showed to be very strong in the stretch as he did not weaken significantly as front runners so often do.  It’s a simple game for Polonius - break well from the gate and try to wire the field. 

Liberian Freighter has several really good Allowance level races in his past to go along with a very impressive Beyer speed progression.  He’s also shown that while he prefers the lead, he doesn’t need it to prevail.  He’s never faced one quite as good as Polonius on the grass, but a stalking trip parked just outside his hind quarters would appear to give Liberian Freighter a real fighting chance here.

Tiz West is another who is progressing well after taking a bit of time to break his maiden.  He’s another that could find himself sitting a comfy trip behind the early pace, but once again if that early pace is a comfortable Polonius rather than a battle between Polonius and Liberian Freighter, it would be hard to anticipate a win.  If the pace does set up well, he could get first jump turning for home. 

Ez Dreamer and Robsarvic would appear to be the longshots to me.  I like Ez Dreamer best of those two and think he has a real chance to wind up in the money.  He wasn’t able to cut into Polonius’s lead last time out and has been bested by Tiz West in the past.

I’ll play Polonius for the win in a captain obvious play.  I’d use Tiz West and Liberian Freighter underneath.  If trifecta wagering is allowed, toss in Ez Dreamer for third.  There won’t be much value here anyway with such a short field.  This will be a race to watch rather than bet in my opinion. If you’re formulating a pick 4 ticket - I think there’s enough reason to expect a strong trip from Polonius that you can consider singling here.

1/ 3, 5 / 2, 3, 5 ($4)