THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Saturday was supposed to be a chance to showcase the talents of one of the best older horses in the country, Heatseeker, in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup.  Instead, the heavy favorite has scratched, leaving the field a bit more wide open.  Racing fans should still be treated to one of the stars of the California circuit when Daytona takes to the track in the Grade 2 American Handicap.  In addition, we’ve got 11 races that I must say look quite competitive on paper. 

All in all it should still be a great betting day, even if a “free square” in the multi-race exotics like Heatseeker has scratched. In fact, some of the races are so close that I’ve listed additional horses beyond the usual 3 I give out.  It’s that close trying to separate some of these guys.

Race 1:Md Sp Wt 62k F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs – Turf)

• #9 Solar Miss (5/2*)
• #3 Sleepin’ In (7/2)
• #1 Gloria Goodbody (8/1)

We open up with a decent maiden special weight race on the turf. Solar Miss and Sleepin’ In look like the top two. I went with Solar Miss as Sleepin’ In tends to fade when it counts. Solar Miss should get the better trip from the outside in my opinion andwill get her nose over the wire for the win. Sleepin’ In will be right behind at the wire after fading late.  I thought Gloria Goodbody had as good a chance as any to be coming late through the stretch for a minor share.  True Bella, Dolly Daggers, and Unusual Strike warrant some underneath consideration depending on how they look in the post parade.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 62K 3↑ (7 Furlongs)

• #6 Ksar Ghilane (4/1)
• #4 Star Time (3/1)
• #2 Victory’s Cry (4/1)
• # 5 Yankee Station (5/2*)

I know, I’ve listed 4 horses in my selections.  What gives?  Honestly I couldn’t separate these guys without guessing. Point being, I think you should cover all of these numbers if playing the early pick 4.  I like Ksar Ghilane to turn in an improved performance after busting through the gate last time out. Maybe that last Beyer figure darkens his form just enough that we catch a price?  Star Time had a very useful debut posting an 87 Beyer speed figure and looks another good one for Bob Baffert.  Victor’s Cry gets an experience edge with 4 races under his belt – including 3 good enough to win here today.  It looks like his most complete race came at 7 furlongs two back.  The favorite is Yankee Station, who adds blinkers today and cannot be discarded.  He’s been right there in the mix in both career starts and has room to move forward. 

Race 3: Clm 40000 4↑ (6 Furlongs – Turf)

• #2 Giovanni (2/1*)
• #7 Carman (5/2)
• #1 Irish Ty (4/1)

This one looks easy to me on paper – which admittedly makes me nervous.  Giovanni looks like he should be able to get an easy lead over this field, despite some pressure from Irish Ty to his inside.  I could see this race being a merry-go-round with the top 3 finishes being 1-2-3 or close to that the entire way around the track.  I spiced things up a little by predicting Carman would charge late and get up for 2nd.  If the pace is a bit hotter than the race may well fall into Carman’s lap.  As such I’d go at least two deep here in the multi-race wagers.  Irish Ty I thought would hold on for a share either battling Giovanni or more likely being just off him.  Drawing the rail may force him into a pace duel though – then the question will be whether he can even run with Giovani to begin with.  Maybe, but likely not.

Race 4: The Landaluce $100k F-2YO (6 Furlongs)

• #3 Glitter City (3/1)
• #7 Trifecta King (5/2)
• #8 Cosmic Queen (2/1*)

Another tough race for handicappers.  Glitter City exits two solid efforts including a 93 Beyer to break her maiden at the special weight level.  A repeat would crush that field, but was that a freak effort?  Trifecta King exits a listed stakes win in the Cinderella against some of today’s foes.  I can’t come up with any reason to toss this gal either.  Cosmic Queen is listed as the favorite coming off a maiden score which saw her defeat Trifecta King that also produced a return winner in the show horse Streamin Heat.  Would be hard not to cove her name either.  Two others horses that deserve long looks are Atka (who has defeated top choice Glitter City) and Emmy Darling, who ran second to top choice Glitter City.  See how tough this one is to decipher?

Edit: Trifeca King has scratched with 2 hours to post time in race 1 – I’d move Cosmic Queen up to 2nd and make either Atka or Emmy Darling third choice.  I tend to favor Atka at the moment, but I’d cover all 4 of them (Glitter City, Atka, Emmy Darling, and Cosmic Queen) in the early Pick 4.

Race 5: The American Handicap – Grade 2 (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

• #7 Daytona (8/5*)
• #5 Hyperbaric (5/2)
• #2 Storm Military (7/2)

Daytona, Daytona, Daytona.  This one is all about Daytona.  Barring a bizarre occurrence, this appears to be the easiest race to predict.  Depending on how you look at things, it’s either a shame not to have this “free square” in the pick 4/pick 6 sequences or it’s a blessing in disguise from a betting value standpoint.  Me, I’d like the free square as I like to keep costs down.  Hyperbaric looked like the logical rival here today with the best chance.  I liked Storm Military for show, but would also consider Becrux and Albertus Maximus as they stand similar chances and have much better odds.

Edit: With roughly 2 hours to post Albertus Maximus has been scratched.  This race should still be all about Daytona, but I think you can now substitute Worldy in for Albertus Maximus at the bottom of exotics.  Daytona -Hyperbaric still seems the obvious one-two.  Storm Military, Worldly, and maybe Becrux underneath if he doesn’t look rusty.

Race 6: Alw 66000 N1X (7 Furlongs)

• #7 Usurp (5/2*)
• #5 Bullsby (8/1)
• #2 Cost of Freedom (7/2)

Another tough race awaits bettors venturing into the pick 6 sequence.   Usurp has the standout Beyer figure of a whopping 100, so don’t expect any value here at all.  If you’re looking to beat him, he is moving up a notch in class today, so perhaps a runner like Cost of Freedom could defeat him?  It’s not likely, but it’s possible.  Bullsbay looked headed in the right direction to me and has never missed the exacta in 4 career starts. Well, if you discount the disqualification in his debut that is.  Two other horses that looked playable to me are Black Wolf and Cherokee Tear. I ranked them just a notch lower but won’t be surprised at all if they score here.

Race 7: Alw 40000s (7 1/2 Furlongs)

• #7 Pictural (5/2*)
• #6 Dr. J J (4/1)
• #2 Warren’s Operator (6/1)

These starter allowance races can be tricky ones as it’s hard to decipher who exactly is in the best form.  Pictural appears to standout a bit with some of his Beyer speed figures – but not by much.  There aren’t many to chose from in true winning form in this race, but two that I thought could possibly upset were Dr J J and Warren’s Operator as they both exit victories over maiden claimers.  Theoretically the waters deepen today against other horses that have won maiden claimers, but as none of them outside of Pictural looks particularly impressive, I”ll take their recent form as my 2nd and 3rd choices.  Candy Pull also looks useful – although I’ll likely keep him underneath on the trifecta.

Race 8: OC 62K/N2X (7 Furlongs)

• #5 Barbecue Eddie (7/2*)
• #6 Valiant Effort (5/1)
• #12 Secret Shuttle (9/2)

Barbecue Eddie highlights the field of this conditional optional claimer.  I’m perplexed that he’s only a 7/2 favorite because if the Barbecue Eddie we’ve seen so far this year in both the U.S. an Dubai shows up, this one isn’t even close.  In fact, as far as the late pick 4 goes, I think Eddie is  your logical single.  Secret Shuttle is in good recent form with 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts and should be a factor before all is said and done.  I thought Valiant Effort had every right to wind up in the money as well.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Forest Phantom ran a big one as well, although I’m  a little worried about breaking from the rail.

Race 9: The A Gleam Handicap – Grade 2 (7 Furlongs)

• #9 Intangaroo (9/2*)
• #6 Tiz Elemental (5/1)
• #10 Magnificience (7/2*)

I seem to like another lukewarm favorite here in Intangaroo.  That’s okay though. Like a modern day Rodney Dangerfield, the betting action throughout Intangaroo’s career shows that she gets no respect – despite winning 3 of her last 4 starts.  She’s fresh today and training well.  Magnificience is the x-factor challenger.  She’s got 3 very impressive career races under her belt and would appear to match up well with Intangaroo.  I could see a great stretch battle between these two today.  Tiz Elemental shouldn’t be discarded either - do note that she’s beaten Intangaroo before, as well as another filly I’m fond of named Glorified.  Romance is Diane would be the ultimate thief here.  Might she get on the lead and try to wire the field? It’s a longshot, but those hoping for bombs might just fire away at 8/1.

Race  10: The Holywood Gold Cup – Grade 1 (1 1/4 Miles)

• #4 Tiago (3/1)
• #7 Go Between ( 5/2*)
• #1 Mast Track (12/1)

The feature race of the day is the 69th running of the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup.  We were supposed to get Heatseeker here and I doubt he could’ve been stopped if he was good to go.  Instead a hoof problem scratches the favorite and we’re left with a bit of a head scratcher.  Rather than make this overly complicated, I trusted my gut that this would be a two horse race between Go Between and Tiago.  I gave Tiago a slight nod here, although I don’t think he can allow himself any traffic problems in the stretch.  He may have to be more forwardly placed today , say around mid pack in the early running.  Mast Track would appear to have a  chance to wire the field from the rail.  I’m not expecting swift fractions here, and that would seem to play into his favor and against horses like Tiago and Go Between.  Student Council is interesting here as well.  He can seemingly do it all: dirt, turf, synthetics – and he’s pulled upsets before.  Big Booster looks like a horse you’d have to use underneath in the trifecta.

Race 11: Md Sp Wt 62K (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #10 Ima Offended (9/2)
• #2 Chimera Star (7/2*)
• #3 Smooch Me (8/1)
• #11 Ampys Lil Girl (4/1)
• #9 Hot Little Bug (8/1)

Yup, that’s 5 horses I’ve got up there – and for good reason. Any one of them could win this thing.  Either cover ‘em all or pick your poison.  There’s not much to go on here besides jockey/trainer stats and limited recent form – most of which look good for the guys listed above.  This should be a good one to close out the day.

Best of luck and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.