THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Early speed, early speed, early speed.  How many times do we need to see it?  Mast Track put on another lesson for handicappers by wiring what appeared to be a highly competitive field of older horses in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on Saturday as a 10-1 longshot.

I had pointed out in the day’s handicapping that he as a legitimate threat to wire the field as there didn’t appear to be anyone else with his kind of early zip.  True, he didn’t seem to be at the same level as some of his competitors – with folks mostly talking about Tiago, Go Between, Student Council, Big Booster, and even the 9-year-old Perfect Drift as likely win candidates.  Nobody bothered to tell Mast Track though as he simply broke out of the gate on top and never looked back. 

Mast Track got away with setting very slow fractions of 24.41 and 48.88 in the beginning of the race.  McCann’s Mojave, the eight horse, had every reason to go up and challenge him for the lead but never did.  This combination of a comfortable lead and slow fractions helped propel the 4-year-old son of Mizzen Mist to the wire in 2:01.37 to return a whopping $23.60 for the win. 

Off the-pace types like Tiago and Go Between were effectively neutralized by the early pace – although Go Between did run his heart out to get second place. Student Council proved his versatility on any surface by hanging on for show honors.

So what can handicappers learn from this race?  First and foremost, always respect lone speed – no matter how much better other horses appear on paper.  We had two synthetic races in the previous 3 efforts from Mast Track to build a case for him going to the front.  Toss in the fact that he was breaking from the rail, had added blinkers, and that nobody else appeared to want the lead based on past performances – and you can start to make a safe wager.  I had him third behind Tiago and Go Between in my rankings – so it’s not like I was confident with him, but how many times must we see situations like this.  Forgive me, but Da’ Tara comes to mind as a classic example as well.

With the spirit of the July 4th weekend fast approaching, we must here highly resolve that all horses are not created equal, and that when in the course of equine events a horse appears to be lone speed in a field (and I’d say especially in a route race) – that we will respect said horse’s chances of reaching the wire on top.