First and foremost happy 4th of July to everyone. It looks like we’ve got a good day of racing action in store at Hollywood Park as we fire up the grills and get the family ready for late evening fireworks. Speaking of fireworks, lets see if we can hit some of our own prior to the larger festivities of the day, shall we?
Race 1: 10 Clm (6 1/2 Furlongs)
- #3 Jazzerin (9/5*)
- #1 Smooch (5/2)
- #5 Blushing Bearcat (2/1)
We open with an open claimer for fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. It looks like we’ve got lone speed to the outside with Warren’sgoldengirl at 10/1 – which when added to recently white hot jockey J.A. Garcia would seem a smart play, but it’s hard to endorse these types when they blow 3 length leads to lose by 17 in their last start. This is doubly true when the last three races give the impression of a runner who cannot hold the lead. I’ll use her in the trifecta since she’s lone speed, but I think you have to look at who’s coming from behind her for the win. Jazzerin showed an improved stalking ability last out by keeping close the whole way around the track. She looks to be the one to beat to me, although 9/5 is hard to swallow. Hopefully that softens up a bit before post time. Smooch and Blushing Bearcat have every reason to be right there getting good trips. I thought Smooch had the better chance of the two to wind up threatening for the score or hitting the exacta. On the bottom of the trifecta I’ll likely add in Lady Disdain and take a shot on Warren’sgoldengirl hanging on for a money finish since there isn’t much value elsewhere.
3/1,5/1,2,5,6 ($6)
Race 2: Md 4000 (5 1/2 Furlongs)
- #3 Salah Mrs. D (5/2*)
- #9 Improvising Gal (7/2)
- #2 My Sister Laureen (3/1)
The second race is all about whether Salah Mrs. D shows up or needs a race. If she’s anything like her former self she should crush this field – but she’s been off since March of 2007. The workouts look good (particularly 5F in 58.8 on 6/15) and trainer Mike Mitchell seems to be an ace with horses coming off extended layoffs, so I’ll accept her as the favorite. Improvising Gal has been very close in numerous tries – many against better than she’ll face today. John Sadler is on fire at the moment and this is just the type of race that jockey Jonathan Rosario thrives in. This could be her day. My Sister Laureen was a well beaten 2nd in her last effort and may get over bet because of that. If she tries to go with Salah Mrs. D at the start she’ll likely burn them both out. I’m hoping she settles behind a bit and looks for a more tactical trip. Of the others I think there are 2 that you could make a case for. Joe Talamo seems to be on a live one with Promise Rose. Dixie Dot Chance could move forward dropping in class and adding blinkers.
3/2,9/2,4,8,9 ($6)
Race 3: Md 25000 (6 1/2 Furlongs)
- #4 Texas Devil (7/2)
- #9 Tizsong (5/2*)
- #7 Bringbackabillion (3/1)
An interesting maiden claimer awaits bettors in today’s third race. Texas Devil looks like the horse to beat dropping in from the $32k level. He hasn’t really run a bad one yet, but needs to step forward to win today. Tizsong is the one to catch up front, but he’s had trouble hanging on even with a clear advantage in previous efforts. Bringbackabillion takes the biggest class drop of the field from the $80k maiden claiming level. I’d also look at Son of Pegasus in here as even though it’s alarming to see an $875,000 purchase offered for a $25k tag, he wouldn’t have to be too talented to make his presence felt here today. Ring Master and Quarter Moon also look playable underneath depending on who makes the better post parade impression. I’ll use Quarter Moon for now since he continues to drop in class.
4/7,9/ 5,7,8,9 ($6)
Race 4: Clm 12500 (1 1/16 Miles)
- #6 Gary’s Got Rhythm (5/2*)
- #3 Quasimodo (4/1)
- #4 Mananan McLir (9/2)
We wind up the early pick 4 with a rather competitive open $12,500 claimer. Gary’s Got Rhythm shows the best recent Beyer figures enough so to warrant accepting as the 5/2 favorite. His last two races going this route over the main track at Hollywood Park have been good enough to win here today. Really his last 4 races are all solid enough. Quasimodo looms the upset specialist dropping in from the $16,000 level last out. If you scratch that last race that began with a bad break, his last 5 before that included 4 wins. I wouldn’t sell this guy short today. Mananan McLir gets jockey Corey Nakatani back today and that could be an angle for perking him back up just a bit. He’s not that far off the leaders from a Beyer standpoint anyway. There are a couple of other interesting horses in this one to keep an eye on, including Chadlington (moving to jockey J. Rosario) and Norway House, who has a tendency to finish in the money.
6/3,4/3,4,5,6,7 ($8 )
Race 5:OC 40k/NIX (1 1/16 Miles)
- #3 Shebang (5/1)
- #10 Lupita’sluckyangel (10/1)
- #5 Sangay (9/2)
It looks like Shebang might be able to get away with the early lead in this one, and if so she’s a legit threat to wire the field in today’s 5th. Two potential obstacles include Lupita’sluckyangel to the extreme outside, and the Shirreffs runner in the 5 hole, Dynamatic. Being as that Lupita’sluckyangel may be looking to stalk today and Dynamatic has been off since April of 2007, I’ll give the edge to Shebang. Lupita’sluckyangel could get a perfect trip if she rates just behind Shebang and potentially Dynamatic if that one is eager out of the gate. Sangay should be coming late through the stretch, but unless she gets some help pace wise up front is probably running for a minor award. Accopela Choir and Dynamatic look useful underneath to me.
3/5,10/4,5,6,10 ($6)
Race 6:Md 40000 (5 1/2 Furlongs)
- #6 Warren’s R Ready (2/1*)
- #7 Heaven Tonight (4/1)
- #5 High Performance (3/1)
The sixthrace features state-bred maiden claimers going 5/12 furlongs over the main track. Warren’s R Ready seems to tower over the field on paper, but you have to remember this is a horse that is 0 for 4, albeit with3 second place finishes. She looks the worth favorite though. High Performance has the Bejarano/O’Neill angle working in her favor and seems to be coming into form since dropping into this level. Heaven Tonight and Wendythief exit the same race last out. I went with Heaven Tonight as she seemed to be slightly better – especially early on. Do note that Wendythief adds blinkers from the rail so don’t be surprised if they change tactics and try to send this one early on. As far as Heaven Tonight goes, I like her works and the fact that she’s dropping form open special weight company into state-bred maiden claimers – which obviously holds true for Wendythief as well.
6/5,7/1,5,7,9 ($6)
Race 7: Clm 40000 (6 Furlongs)
- #8 Rudemeanie (4/1)
- #7 Make Mine Vodka (3/1*)
- #4 Wheaton Hall (9/2)
This may be the most wide open race of the day. I actually count 5 runners who can win this thing. Along with the 3 I’ve listed above, I’d also play #2 Capt. Joe Blow (6/1) and #3 Chief Teddybear (5/1) in the Pick 4 if you can afford to. Make Mine Vodka looks to be in tip top shape stepping up off an impressive score at the $32k level. Rudemeanie is likewise evidently in top form. I wouldn’t let that 5th place finish last out worry you as he was only beaten by 1 1/2 lengths and that was Carman he was facing. Wheaton Hall got third choice from me largely because of Nakatani and his more forwardly placed running style. Like I mentioned earlier though, I won’t be surprised at all if Chief Teddybear comes closing late or if Capt. Joe Blow put in a good run up front here either. Tough one to call.
8/4,7/2,3,4,7 ($6)
Race 8: The Flawlessly (1 Mile – Turf)
- #8 Lethal Heat (7/2*)
- #11 Sweeter Still (9/2)
- #1 Final Fling (6/1)
The feature race of the day is the 11th running of The Flawlessly for 3-year-old fillies going 1 mile over the turf course. Lethal Heat is my top selection – check mark all the way. I’ve got a feeling she’s going to be one of the better fillies on the So-Cal circuit this summer. She’s yet to run a bad race and still has plenty of room to move forward. This could be the next star in the making for this division out west. Sweeter Still looks like the main threat. She has been in some tight finishes in previous graded stakes tries and always seems to wind up in the mix at the wire. Final Fling might get overlooked purely from a Beyer prospective, but I like this Jeff Mullins runner in here. She probably should’ve won her last out but note that she hit the rail and stumbled – yet still managed to only lose by 2. Prior to that she was running well behind Ariege and Golden Doc A. Very interesting upset player here. Ginger Pop and Starry Pursuit look like the best of the rest to me.
8/1,11/1,6,10,11
Race 9: Md 25000 (6 1/2 Furlongs)
- #9 King Kang (9/5*)
- #6 Redorwhite (10/1)
- #2 Buster WIth a K (20/1)
We wind up with maiden claimers going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. King Kang looks like the standout to me dropping in from the $50k level and adding blinkers. He’s burned backers twice before, but he’s worked well and Ted West seems to be an ace at today’s conditions. Buster With A K also adds blinkers and jockey J.A. Garcia has been doing well lately. I see enough here to make him my second pick. Perhaps the blinkers help keep him more focused early on? Redorwhite has the right name for a 4th of July, doesn’t he? And if a 10/1 longshot burned ticket holders, might that make them “blue?” I like that this one has worked well, drops from the $62,500 level, and is a son of the talented Point Given. Also note that trainer Clifford Siseis hitting at 30% with 2nd timers. Upset specialist?
9/2,6/2,3,4,6 ($6)
As always be sure to check for late scratches and/or changes prior to wagering. Best of luck to all and here’s hoping you have a wonderful 4th of July.
your picks fail.