THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

In case you hadn’t heard, there’s an enormous carry over at Hollywood Park of $1,197,009 thanks to a deluge of long-shots yesterday during the July 4 card.  Today’s racing action features to be a bit more formful with several high profile stakes races on the card - and could be a juicy opportunity for bettors willing to dip into their pockets and take a stab at a large score.  

I’m guessing we’ll be at around $3,000,000 in the pool come post time for the 6th race at 2:42 PM (PDT).  There could be more than that when all is said and done considering it’s a  Saturday.  What this means is that the pool will have inflated value, and even chalk heavy scores will likely pay out better than expected profits.

WIth that in mind, let’s take a closer look at each race in the sequence beginning with race 6.  The under-card is quite playable as well and will feature super filly Zenyatta in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap. You know how I feel about this. Being a penny pincher, I’d have preferred to have Zenyatta in the pick 6 sequence as a free square. 

Race 6: Md Sp Wt 62k (6 Furlongs)

• #7 Seamus (5/1)
• #10 Ribald (7/2)
• #4 Crash Landing (5/2*)

The opening race of the pick 6 sequence is actually one of the more difficult to decipher as we haven’t got a whole lot to work with from a handicapping perspective.  I’d suggest carefully studying the field in the post parade to see who looks like they want to be here today before launching any $100 tickets in the pick 6.  Seamus looks like a well bred first time starter for trainer Mark Glatt.  Benchmark gets roughly 13% with debut starters and Glatt scores upsets wuth firsters quite regularly (18%, $4.00 ROI). Also note that Garrett Gomez is aboard. Ribald will likely take less play at the windows than rival Crash Landing, but note that Ribald was favored amongst the two last out then blew the start. Offspring of Unusual Heat are quite playable early in their careers and I wouldn’t sell this guy too short compared to his rival.  Speaking of said rival, Crash Landing has two solid races to build off of and gets jockey Rafael Bejarano.  Value probably won’t be there but it’s tough to leave this guy out of the mix.  Several others to keep an eye on are #1 Hannahs Classy Boy (first time starter for Brian Koriner), One Chin Again (Doug O’Neill trainee who did not disappoint in the Snow Chief), and Special Grey Ghost (if for no other reason than J. Rosario is aboard).

Race 7: The Cashcall Mile Invitational -G2 (1 Mile - Turf)

• #2 Ventura (9/5*)
• #1 Lady of Venice (2/1)
• #5 Diamond Diva (3/1)

Before I even start - yes, I know that almost all the pundits on TVG and in the DRF are picking against Ventura here. I felt like La Tee would be the speed here and get away up front early on. The two James Cassidy runners, Diamond Diva and Passifiedwill likely be just behind the pacesetter withDiamond Diva perhaps being a bit aggressive and getting involved with La Tee while jockey David Flores tries to keep her from spending her bolt too soon. Ventura should be behind thisgroup and I feel she should be good enough to run them down in the stretch.  Lady of Venice will be coming late and while 1 mile over the turf is clearly her game, she may have a bit much to do if in fact La Tee gets loose on the lead setting comfortable fractions.  If Diamond Diva can restrain herself in the early going (something Flores should help with), she has every right to run a big one today as well.  Passified will probably wind up in the money, but I ranked her just below the others in terms of a win candidate.

Race 8: Alw 66000N1X (6 1/2 Furlongs)

• #11 Tizsweetdreams (3/1*)
• #1 Barbara’s Love (5/1)
• #10 Magical Victory (4/1)

Similar to race 7, many of the selections I’ve seen for race 8 have folks jumping off the favorite, Tizsweetdreams and looking for value elsewhere. I tried to do the same but came back with her as top choice. I thought Tizsweetdreams had a good shot to get loose out front after gunning it early on from the outside post. Thunder and Ice may giver her some company early on. Barbara’s Love could be sitting beautifully just off the pacesetter(s) and will likely get first jump trying to gun them down.  Sure she’s primed for a bounce, but there’s no question she loves going 6 1/2 furlongs and she should be able to save a bit of ground breaking from the rail.  Magical Victory could be the best horse of this field when their careers are over, but it looks like they are trying to find the right distance for her.  She is a possibility today and I wouldn’t totally discount her.  Chosen Royalty and Awesome Again would be further possibilities depending on how deep you wish to go.

Race 9: The American Oaks Invitational - Grade 1 (1 1/4 Miles - Turf)

• #4 Raw Silk (6/1)
• #1 Pure Clan (7/2*)
• #7 Annie Skates (10/1)

The American Oaks is another tough one to decipher.  Raw Silk looks to have a shot at wiring the field as the lone speed of the race.  Many of you know how I feel about lone speed. I’m a converted disciple.  Enough said.  Pure Clan is a helluva runner who has only been beaten by the likes of Eight Belles and Proud Spell - and even then not by much.  I have a hunch she’ll thrive at this distance.  Caribbean Sunset looks like the class of the Euro-invaders.  You always have to respect the Europeans in these middle distance turf races. Still, do remember that Europeans have gone 1 for 17 starters in the history of the Oaks - so don’t be too scared of them just because they are Euros alone.  One has to wonder whether Caribbean Sunset will enjoy going 1 1/4 miles or not?  Want an x-factor?  How about Annie Skates?  Rumor has it the daughter of Mr. Greeley has been pointing to this one for quite some time, and she’s got a couple of tries at today’s distance under the belt. 

Race 10: The Triple Bend Invitational Handicap - Grade 1 (7 Furlongs)

• #5 Street Boss (9/5*)
• #1 Elite Squadron (5/2)
• #4 High Standards (8/1)

This would appear to be the easiest spot in the pick 6 sequence to single. Street Boss, the talented son of Street Cry, has blossomed into the best sprinter on the California circuit. Looking over his performances, he really should be 5 for 5 thus far for the year.  I’d say single and move along, although those looking to break the bank should focus on whether 7 furlongs might compromise Street Boss. His only bad race of his career just happened to be 7 furlongs.  Hmmmmmmmm.  Elite Squadron is a Grade 2 winner and with Bejarano aboard would appear to be the main rival. There is a lot of zip in here, which seemingly plays into Street Boss’s hands.  Another contender would be High Standards with the white hot J. Rosario aboard.

Race 11: Md Sp Wt 65k (1 1/16 Miles - Turf)

• #9 Surprises Welcomed (5/2*)
• #7 Wicked Delight (3/1)
• #1 Alley Theater (5/1)

We wind up with maiden special weights.  God willing all of us are still alive in the pick 6 and sitting on the edge of our seats.  I thought there were three logical choices here.  Surprises Welcomed looks simply the best on paper. A well-bred daughter of Storm Cat, she ought to take to the grass quite fine and could actually move forward in her third lifetime race.  Wicked Delight was beaten by a neck last out in her third start and should be right in the thick of things as they hit the wire.  Alley Theater may get overlooked, but she’s working well and not that far behind Surprises Welcomed and Wicked Delight from a Beyer perspective.

As always, best of luck to everyone. Be sure to check for late scratches and changes before wagering.  Here’s hoping someone out there strikes it rich today.