THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Note: Inspired by Dick Jerardi’s column in Friday’s Daily Racing Form (you’ll need a subscription to read – it’s the one titled “Right spot to bet against Curlin” – or you can just by a DRF at your local newsstand since it’s the feature cover story)

First things first – there’s no reason why anyone should miss the Man O’ War Stakes as it will air live on ESPN News at 5:15 EDT on Saturday.  That’s right – Curlin will be broadcast to the nation.  It’s about damn time considering how bitter many of us are for being shut out of his return last month.

I suppose It’s easy to tell what my brain is focused on today (and altogether unsurprising).  You all know it. Curlin.  Still, something has been bothering me all day.  We’re headed up to Belmont as a family to see him run. In fact, we’re leaving tomorrow night.  I feel like it’s my duty as a diehard fan of his – but I’m not kidding myself.  This is going to be a tough one for him to win.

So all things considered, do I bet with my heart and take a stand on him, boldly singling in the pick 4 and pick 6?  Do I do the unthinkable and play against him (while having the nerve to consider myself one of his biggest fans)?  Or do I just pass on betting all together and resolve to simply watch him run?

In all honesty, should I wager against him, it won’t be the first time I’ve done so. I’ve mentioned in previous posts that Rags to Riches made such a strong visual impression on me in the post parade for the 2007 Belmont Stakes that I hurried to place a small chunk on her to win.  I did have other bets already on the line (the usual pick 4 and pick 6) singled to Curlin that were still alive.  I screamed my heart out for him, but it wasn’t a total loss when he came up a neck short at the wire.

When I stop and think of that day, it’s quite remarkable.  Think of how differently the story of Curlin could’ve swung.  He goes on of course to lose to Any Given Saturday in the Haskell, which was truly the low point of his career – but the Belmont may have been the most unexpected and potentially devastating defeat.  Thank goodness things has played out as they have over the last year.

Getting back to our original dilemma.  What to do about Curlin?  It’s no secret – he’s totally unproven on the grass.  He’s bound to be a huge underlay and the overwhelming post time favorite.  Do we take him at face value on name alone and bet him?  Or do we look to runners with more solid turf form? 

Truth be told, the smart play is to bet against him.  And yes, you’ve no idea how much it pains me to say that. It’s not that he can’t romp on turf.  He can – and god knows I think he’s good enough. He’s capable of anything, but in terms of being a “smart bet” – it’s kind of hard to make a strong case.  The only thing you can really go on is “heart”, or “gut.”  We’ve got one workout to digest – and while it was a good one, there’s a pretty big difference between working around dogs and a grade 1 race.  Hey, wait a minute….that’s eerily spot on to Asmussen’s own quote.  And you know what – he’s right.  

Now you guys know me pretty well from reading this site regularly, or semi-regularly, or….well you get the picture.  You know there’s no way in hell I can be there LIVE at a Curlin race and NOT cover my boy.  I just love him too damn much.  More than I’ve ever loved another horse.  Infinitely more.  Incomprehensibly more. All things considered though, as your friendly neighborhood handicapper, I have to silently whisper here that better value is probably going to be found elsewhere on the totebaord.

Of course, on the other hand you can say that you want to be a part of potential history in the making by supporting Curlin as he embarks on his grass career. Or you could pass entirely and get your betting fix in on the undercard races – but let’s not kid ourselves here.  That would mean passing up on the pick 6 and pick 4 wager pools.  In other words, the best action at the track would be bypassed.  Can’t really do that, now can we? 

So here’s my strategy.  I’m going to single Curlin again in my pick 4 and pick 6’s.  I reserve the right to have a sudden loss of confidence though if something looks amiss in the post parade. I’m haunted by memories of Big Brown pulling up back in May – and Rags getting her nose in front last year.  Still, to keep the ticket cheap and playable, I’ll circle Curlin and take a stand.  But, don’t think for a moment I won’t have a little change elsewhere in the race.  Perhaps on a Euro invader or even Blackie (Better Talk Now).   I haven’t finalized that yet and with a 4+hour drive looming tomorrow night with the family in tow – yeah, let’s just say I’ll have to get to finalizing my handicapping a bit later than desired – not to mention sans computer access and therefore unable to blog (more’s the pity).

We are headed back home after the race and should arrive very late on Saturday night – so expect to see our update once we return. By then the outcome will be old news, but win or lose there will be much to discuss.

So what are you other horseplayers doingi n the Man O’ War?  Who’s going with the chalk and who thinks they’ve got a longshot?