THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

FInally! It’s hard for me to get time to handicap and blog picks for Del Mar during the work week.  I’ve been looking forward to the first opportunity to seriously dive into the legendary track “where the turf meets the surf” for what feels like eternity. 

Last year was a tough meet.  In a word (or two) I could summarize it as a brutal beating.  It took me forever to get the new surface figured out and by the time I did my bankroll had already dictated focusing on Saratoga as my key meet of the season.

We’ve got 8 races on the card for Friday as we gear up for a big racing weekend at Del Mar, Colonial Downs, and other tracks across the nation.  My breakdown for each race follows.  One thing I’d like to mention that always irritates me about picking horses a night in advance is the inability to judge anyone with your eyes.  It goes without saying, these are subject to change.  I always hope these are helpful to readers.  If nothing else it’s one other possible interpretation that can be taken into consideration - but as always I’m an advocate of making your own picks. 

Note: I may need to come back and edit the odds here as I was using an early copy of the DRF obtained Thursday morning. (Edit: Odds have been adjusted)

Race 1:

• #6 Red Neck Gal (2/1*)
• #4 Bold Cleo (8/1)
• #5 Mikey Bones (8/1)

We start off with a 12500 claimer for fillies and mares 4-and-up going 1 mile over the main track.  I see my picks wound up very similar to Brad Free’s in the Daily Racing Form. Bold Cleo looks like the horse that will get the lead.  She is capable of wiring the field, but I thought the stalkers might get great trips here and Red Neck Gal in particular just had too many angles to ignore.  You’re getting Hollendorfer and Bejarano, and “King Jerry” is 30% coming right back off the claim. I would not be surprised if 10/1 longshot Mikey Bones ran a big one either.  I think many will ignore this gal at the window, but she’s had a useful 2008 campaign thus far.  I also like the workout on 7/13 (4 furlongs in 47 and change) and the fact that she exits her most productive race of her career. I still think Red Neck Gal is tops in the stretch though.  We shall see.

Race 2:

• #4 Elusive Legend (3/1)
• #6 Siena Gold (5/1)
• #2 America’s Friend (5/1)

For race 2 we’ve got a 59000N1X Allowance contest for fillies and mares 3-and-up sprinting 5 furlongs on the turf.  There’s really four horses I like in here, I just didn’t use Masterful Miss as one of my top three. I do think Masterful Miss is the speed of the speed - and we are going 5 furlongs here - but I thought another off-the-pace type might get things done here.  They just can’t be too far off-the-pace it would seem. Elusive Legend is clearly the x-factor of the field.  That was a nice debut, all things considered, and folks may not favor that at the windows.  You get the feeling this horse could be heads and shoulders better than the rest when all is said and done.  The danger is that we can’t be certain.  The post parade will be a good clue.  Sienta Gold may get ignored due to her previous turf efforts being from Golden Gate and Bay Meadows, but she looks game at this distance and could get a great trip. I thought America’s Friend would be moving best late and may make a run at the whole thing in the stretch.  I’m just not sure 5 furlongs gives her enough of a chance to win.

Race 3:

• #1 Padach (7/2)
• #4 Tizzalating (8/1)
• #9 Airplane Attendant (9/2)

The third race is a 32000 Maiden Claimer for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track.  Like most of the handicappers in the DRF - I see enough in Padach to rate top selection.  She showed speed last time out, drops in from the 40k level, and trainer Frank Monteleone has some impressive angles.  Tizzalating looks useful if she can move forward from the less than impressive debut. I like the workout tab and the fact that Rosario is aboard.  A cleaner trip and she could well move forward. Airplane Attendant gets the obvious class drop and “blinkers on” considerations.  Plus, I never count Doug O’Neill out of a fight.  I’d probably toss in Heavenly Tonight if looking for a longshot.

Race 4:

• #3 Freebiehadthemoves (2/1*)
• #9  Jinx (3/1)
• #4 Laruen C (6/1)

We’ve got Cal-bred fillies and mares 3-and-up going 6 furlongs over the main track in a 40000 starter allowance in the 4thrace.  Again, no real surprises here withmy picks.  I think these three are the obvious contenders.  Freebiehadthemoves is the best on paper. We’ll see how she looks in the post parade to solidify the choice.  Jinx exits a quite useful race as well.  If Freebie doesn’t fire this looks like the “best of the rest.”  Laruen C looks like she belongs here as well with the contenders.  I like that she keeps within range and can fire in the stretch.  I’m guessing Square Genius is the speed here so be sure and consider using that one in your exactas and trifectas as well.  I thought of using Pure Refinement, as she could stalk beautifully, but I’m bothered that it took 25000 Maiden Claimers to bring out her best.  Still, she’s not exactly facing the track’s finest in this one.  I’ll consider using her if she makes a favorable impression. 

Race 5:

• #5 What a Wish (15/1)
• #6 My Man Sumo (8/1)
• #9 Bradytomoss (15/1)

The 5th is a very lively 100000 Maiden Claimer for 2 year-oldsgoing 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track.  The favorite dropping from the G3 level will likely be Let’spickupthepace. I do think this one is worth tossing if you don’t like 8/5 odds.  It doesn’t look like that much of a lock to me.  What a Wish, Fu Peg He Rat, My Man Sumo, and Bradytomoss all appear to have chances in my estimation.  Each is a debut runner and some of these guys have RIDICULOUS trainer stats.  Adam Kitchingman (Bradytomoss) is 32% withfist time starters? 41% with debut maiden claimers?? All at some of the most juicy looking ROIs I’ve ever seen. There’s a lot to like in this race.  Really I’d say let the 6/5 beat you if he’s really that good and hope for a longshot here.  It’s not that I don’t think the favorite can win - clearly he can - I just can’t take 8/5 with some of the angles I’m seeing on other runners.

Race 6:

• #3 Robscarvic (3/1*)
• #10 Nimas Pad (15/1)
• #2 Dr. Zaentz (9/2)

The sixth race is a very competitive  OC 80k/N1X race for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course.  Robscarvic is a worthy favorite dropping in from the G3 ranks where he was close against runners like Tiz West and Polonius.  He seems clearly the horse to beat.  Call me crazy, but I thought Nima’s Pad breaking from the outside with the addition of blinkers was going to get the lead here. I don’t really thing he has a choice.  That being said, call me even crazier - but I think it could help boost him.  I love the blinkers on angle - and I think it plays in nicely here. Dr. Zaentz always winds up in my picks and he seldom returns anything for my troubles.  That said, he’s bound to get it done one of these days.  I met as well have him on a ticket or two. 

Race 7:

•  #9 Atka (7/2)
• #8 Ten Churros (3/1*)
• #5 Streamin Heat (5/1)

The 7th race is the 55th running of the California Thoroughbred Breeder’s Association for $125k.  We’ve got 2-year-old Cal bred fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track.  This looks like a two horse battle on paper between Atka and Ten Churros.  Atka’s got the classier first few races while Ten Churros looks to be in fantastic form.  It’ll take quite an effort to get past these two. Streamin Heat exits a run that was more impressive than it appears on paper.  The x-factor here would appear to be the Melvin Stute runner, Laird’s Lassie.  What’s this debut starter doing here against this competition?  The workout tab makes you have to consider her.  Can’t wait to see what she looks like in the post parade to she if she’s a contender or a pretender.

Race 8:

• #2 Downtown Lover (5/1*)
• #10 Kentucky Waltz (5/1)
• #4 Tiz Next (6/1)

We wind up with a 10000 Claimer for state bred fillies and mares 3-years-old and up going 6 furlongs on the main track.  Downtown Lover looks tough to over come here.  You might even be able to single on the pick 4/pick 6 here. Not often you get a back-to-back winner in such events.  Note also the 4 wins in 7 starts so far in 2008.  Yeah- that’s impressive. Kentucky Waltz could be a real steal if she goes off at anything like 12/1 (edit: note corrected odds as my advance copy of the DRF was slightly off).  She’s dropping from 16k, keeps Bejarano, and is really either a hit or miss type.  Her running lines show 3 firsts and 3 seventh place finishes in her last 6 starts.  I think she needs to go from the outside - but she has shown a stalking style in the past.  Tiz Next will be forgotten I think as he’s coming back from Golden Gate and there apper to be other options.  I think this is the right bunch for him to get a minor share against. Hotitude and Miss Lola La Dare also look usable underneath.

As always, be sure to check for late changes and scratches.  Best of luck to all.