THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Saturday racing at Del Mar. Life does get any better than this - at least not until Saratoga kicks off next week.  We’ve got 10 races to cover, including the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap.  We had a $101 winner yesterday and it certainly seems like handicapping horses based on positive impressions in the post parade is the key to catching longshots thus far.  The following are my initial impressions -and are as always subject to change and not necessarily exactly as I’d bet them.

Race 1:

• #6 Wild and Ready (5/1)
• #5 One Only (5/2*)
• #2 Guts (3/1)

We start things off with a 50000 Claimer going 1 mile over the turf. #4 Enactment should be the pace setter, but #1 Rivergrade Boy and #5 One Only could be tucked in close behind.  I thought this set things up nicely for #6 Wild and Ready who has run respectably against better horses such as Kilderry, Crimson Star, and Sky Cape.  One Only looks like the x-factor to me. He could be part of a pace duel or he could be well placed just off the pace.  Either way I think he’s a factor and you have to love the last two running lines showing that he “fought back.”  He’s got heart and I expect that to show up here today. #2 Guts should be coming late and has also run well against the same horses as Wild and Ready.  I wouldn’t count Rivergrade Boy out of this one either though - note that he’s faced Behindatthebar, Polonius, Gayego, and Colonel John.  Needless to say he should find this competition easier.

Race 2:

• #7 Lucky Honey (2/1*)
• #4 Muscle’n Mane (9/2)
• #3 Raise the Heat (6/1)

The second race is a state-bred OC25k/N1X for 3 year olds and upward going 1 mile over the main track. We’ve got horses moving up and horses dropping in class. #7 Lucky Honey is the class dropper that seems to be in the best recent form having been nosed at the open $50k level last time out. #4 Muscle’n Mane is the horse stepping up from a starter allowance score that looks like the logical threat. #3 Raise the Heat and#6 Super Strut have worlds of back class. Of those two I prefer #3 Raise the Heat with jockey Joe Talamo at the 1 mile distance.

Race 3:

• #4 Judy Patootie (4/1)
• #5 Bella Talia (3/1)
• #2 Only First Class (2/1*)

The third race is a Madien Special Weight for fillies and mares 3 and up sprinting 6 furlongs on the main track.  The favorite will likely be #2 Only First Class who was able to move forward to 2nd place last time out against similar.  I don’t doubt she’s improving, but it’s hard to back a favorite who is 0 for 8 with only 1 finish in the money.  I’ll probably use two first time starters depending on how they look in the post parade. #4 Judy Patootie has some ridiculously fast workouts (4 furlongs in 46 and change on 7/9) and looks to be live at first asking.  #5 Bella Talia looks like the other firster that is most intriguing on paper.  You may want to just cover ‘em all here if playing the Pick 3’s and take a stand on one of the surrounding races.  These 6 furlong races with small fields can be anyone’s game.

Race 4:

• #1 Minister Blair (5/2*)
• #2 Rush Rush (5/1)
• #5 Maroon (3/1)

The 4th race is an interesting 80000 Claimer for 4-year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course.  I say interesting because, at least for me, you can never quite tell how things will go exactly over the grass.  I’m expecting a pace duel between #6 Shimby and #3 Kris SIlver right out of the gate.  Anyone of the above 3 horses could win if indeed that sets up.  Minister Blair exits back to back victories and with Bejarano aboard it goes without saying you’ll need to beat him to cash.  Rush Rush should get a favorable trip today and be in the thick of things in the stretch.  Don’t count #5 Maroon out - he should be coming late down the center of the track.

Race 5:

• #5 Absolutely Smitten (7/2)
• #3 Dice Affair (3/1*)
• #1 Warren’s Cookie (5/1)

The 5th race is a 25000 Maiden Claimer for fillies and mares 3 and up going 6 furlongs over the main track.  #5 Absolutely Smitten looks like the one to catch if you draw a line through that last effort.  Still, stamina would appear to be a concern with the added 1/2 furlong today.  #3 Dice Affair adds blinkers and looks like she will be a part of things from the start.  It’s possible that Dice Affair and Absolutely Smitten could go at each other and open things up for someone else, but for now I’ll cover them both in my picks and look at #1 Warren’s Cookie underneath.  She could get first jump if the top two were to falter.  Honestly though, this is the kind of race with cheap maiden claimers that you really need to watch the post parade for.  The favorites are vulnerable and a longshotjust might leap out at you.   Perhaps She’salittlepistol with Joe Talamo?  We’ll see.

Race 6: The Grade 2 San Diego Handicap

• #6 Well Armed (3/1)
• #2 Surf Cat (5/2*)
• #3 Rebellion (7/2)

The 6th and feature race of the afternoon, the 67th running of the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. $180,000 is on the line to whomever can win.  #6 Well Armed would appear to be the speed here exiting a solid effort against Curlin in the Dubai World Cup.  Of course,  you have to worry about the infamous “Dubai bounce” - so be careful to check how he looks prior to the race if you can for any tells. Surf Cat obviously has to be considered, but you get the feeling that he’s not quite what he used to be.  #3 Rebellion should be coming on well in the lane and could wind up the thief when all is said and done.  I’d cover this number on the multi-race exotic wagers for certain.  I also get the feeling that the rail runner - #1 Mostacolli Mort - will be in the money when all is said and done.  Tall Texan is another that looks lively to use underneath.  As far as a trifecta play on this one goes, I’m thinking:

6/2,3/1,2,3,8 ($6)

Race 7:

• #3 Bye Bye Ladies (3/1*)
• #7 Missoula (5/1)
• #8 Beyla (15/1)

The 7th race is an open 40000 Claimer for fillies and mares 3 years-old and up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.  It looks like we’ve got plenty of speed entered in this one so I’m going to look for someone coming off the pace for top honors. #3 Bye Bye Ladies adds blinkers as a beaten favorite last time out and should get a beautiful trip.  I think this one sets up very well for her.  #7 Missoula will be in the money - that much seems certain (10-3-4-2 lifetime).  Personally I think she (Missoula) should avoid the speed duel today and look to stalk off the pace. #8 Beyla should be coming late, and I’m expecting the pace to help boost her chances, but it’s tough to imagine her pulling off the upset.  I think she’s best used underneath in the trifectas and exactas. Of the ones that appear to be front running types, I prefer #4 Heaterhsdaddysbaby - but to be honest I’m hoping this one takes action at the windows and comes up short.

Race 8:

• #8 Soda Pop Kid (8/1)
• #7 North Fork (5/2*)
• #4 Cable Dancer (4/1)

Today’s 8th race is a 25000 N2L Claimer for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the main track.  I’m going to use #8 Soda Pop Kid at 8/1 as my top choice. What can I say - I love using these Lemon Drops when they stretch out long. Truth be told he’ll probably get better with age and I may be climbing aboard a bit early - but he looks live for trainer Wesley Ward.  #7 North Fork has to be covered in the exotics as well.  Rosario and Mitchell team up here and he looks like he could be a decent horse.  I thought of  taking #3 Angus as my 3rd choice, but he could get burned up if any kind of pace duel occurs.  With that in mind I looked for #4 Cable Dancer to be moving well through the stretch and at least threatening for a minor award.

Race 9:

• #2 Bahama Mama (10/1)
• #5 Fleet Caroline (3/1*)
• #9 Kris’ Sis (7/2)

The 9th race is the 53rd running of the Osunitas Handicap for fillies and mares 3 and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course.  This race came up very intriguing.  #9 Kris’ Sis is the defending champion of last year’s contest and certainly has to be considered a major player in this race. She’s been taking on the likes of Zenyatta and Diamond Diva in recent efforts, so doubtless today should be easier. Still, I went out on a limb somewhat to try and beat her with #2 Bahama Mama.  Something tells me this gal will get loose on the lead and be very difficult to catch.  She’s beaten colts before in Europe (and been favored over them) and has run very well since arriving in the U.S.  I think we’ll catch her today at a long price at what could be her top effort.  #5 Fleet Caroline also has to be respected here and could benefit form not being stuck on the outside.  Obviously you’d be leaving  Bejarano off your pick6/pick4 tickets at your own peril, so I can’t advise to do so even if she’s not my top choice.

Race 10:

• #9 Shade of Moonlight (12/1)
• #3 Friendly Mystery (7/2*)
• #6 Bella Madeira (9/2)

We wind up the day with a 6 furlong sprint for 25000 Maiden Claimers.  I’m going withanother price here in #9 Shade of Moonlight. Most of it has to do with the connections/pedigree. For starters, Joe Talamo is due for a big day, and although Vladimir Cerin isn’t famous for his work with debut horses, do note that this gal’s daddy (Northern Afleet) broke his maiden here at Del Mar.  Also note that she has 4 siblings, and 2 of them won their debut races.  I’ll take 12/1 on that all day long.  #3 Friendly Mystery will be everyone’s top pick I’m sure. Natakatani and Dollase team up on this miss who has been working pretty well in the mornings getting ready for this.  I thought Bella Madeira could be a sneaky play to wind up in the money.  Finishing 3rd in her debut was pretty good - and with that race under her belt she can inch forward a bit.  She doesn’t have to move forward much to be right in the thick of things, now does she?

Hope this was helpful - as always be sure to check for late changes/scratches and be sure to do some post parade handicapping as well.  I joked yesterday that we should have a new rule for horseplayers - whoever Christina Olivares interviews during Trackside Live on TVGdeserves at least a token win bet - even if they claim their horse “needs a race” as we heard with the $101 winner last night.  Enjoy.