THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

The Saturday card at legendary Saratoga is headlined by 4 graded stakes races in a row in races seven through ten.  Each race will be televised on ABC from 4:00 PM - 6:00 PM EDT and will comprise an all-stakes pick 4 sequence.  The races are also part of the Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series. 

Specifically we’ve got the Grade 1 Diana (race 7), the Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt (race 8), the Grade 1 Go For Wand (race 9), and the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap (race 10).  It goes without saying that we’ve got some good horses to watch today, although the weather could still play a factor – primarily with the Diana since it’s on turf. 

Race 7 – The Grade 1 Diana:

• #1 Bit of Whimsy (Eibar Coa) – 12/1
• #2 Dynaforce (Kent Desormeaux) – 4/1
• #3 Bayou’s Lassie (Robby Albarado) -12/1
• #4 Wait a While (Rafael Bejarano) – 3/1
• #5 Vacare (Edgar Prado) - 9/2
• #6 Criminologist (John Velaszquez) – 8/1
• #7 Rutherienne (Garrett Gomez) – 6/1
• #8 Forever Together (Julien Leparoux) – 15/1
• #9 Chestoria (Cornelio Velasquez) – 20/1
• #10 Lady Digby (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1

The 70th running of the Diana for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the Saratoga turf is perhaps the most difficult of the 4 stakes races on the card to get a handle on.  This of course is because it’s being run on the grass at the spa – which has seen some significant rainfall in recent days and has had numerous races moved off the grass in an effort to preserve the course for the major events of the weekend.  You really have to handicap this race assuming two different possibilities.  Either the track has dried out enough to be considered firm or the horses will be going to post with a bit softer footing.  That may seem trivial – but it could totally change the complexion of the race.  For starters, some of the heavier hitters in here like Wait a While may in fact scratch if the turf comes up anything other than “firm.”

Assuming we don’t have a rash of scratches, Wait a While looks to be the horse to beat.  Bejarano has flown in from California to be here for this race, and why not?  All this daughter of Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) has done is win 10 of 20 lifetime starts for a whopping $1.8 million in earnings.  Still, be careful about accepting luke warm favorites at Saratoga.  They don’t call this place the graveyard of favorites for nothing, and if that turf is soft it may indeed favor some other runners.

From a race setup, I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be on the lead here regardless of how the track is rated.  There’s a number of horses who could be just behind her, including Dynaforce and Wait a While. I also believe that Lady Digby is going to have to move a bit quicker than desired out of the gate due to the extreme outside post position.  Bit of Whimsy could be in that group as well breaking from the rail.  Vacare and Criminologist won’t be too far behind, and Rutherienne and Forever Together will likely play the role of closer today. 

I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be pressured enough by the stalkers that she fades before the wire, but do note that she handled Vacare on a wet track 3 races back (not to mention Dreaming of Anna as well).  In other words, I wouldn’t totally disrespect her here.  She could well hit the bottom of the trifectas.  If the track is playing dry, I expect the order of finish to be:  Wait a While, Vacare, Bayou’s Lassie.  If instead it comes up a bit wet (as is expected), I think you really have to boost the odds of Criminologist and Dynaforce.  Criminologist is the clear “horse for the course” play as she owns 2 victories over the Saratoga turf.  It’s pretty hard to ignore that at 8/1.  Forever Together could be interesting in here at a  price.  She’s not exactly proven herself against this level of competition, but she did class-up well against Ventura and Lady of Venice last time out and appears to have really taken to the lawn.  Lady Digby could’ve used a better post position, but perhaps if nothing else she’s assured herself of a clean break. 

Selections:

• Firm: 4/3,5/3,5,7,8 ($6)
• Wet: 6/2.3/ 2,3,4,5 ($6)

Race 8 – The Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt:

• #1 Thor’s Echo (Corey Nakatani) - 6/1
• #2 First Defence (Javier Castellano) - 4/1
• #3 Black Seventeen (Aaron Gryder) – 9/2
• #4 Sammarta (Channing Hill) – 15/1
• #5 Abraaj (Alan Garcia) – 3/1
• #6 Bustin Stones (Edgar Prado) – 2/1*
• #7 E Z Warrior (Kent Desormeaux) – 15/1

The 24th running of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap for three-year-olds and upward sprinting 6 furlongs on the main track drew a small field of 7, but we’ve got a couple of horses here to make it competitive. Really this looks like a two horse race to me on paper.  In the one corner you’ve got the undefeated Bustin Stones exiting his first Grade 1 victory and stepping into the toughest field he’s faced.  So far he’s been a need the lead type runner that has wired every field he’s faced.  You get the feeling that horses like Black Seventeen, Sammarco, and others won’t let him get away with that so easily today.  Of course, he may well make the whole thing academic and run ‘em all out of there shoes.   Still, I think you can look towards the other likely contender, Abraaj to get the better trip here today sitting just off the pace. 

Abraaj may not have a Grade 1 victory in his belt, but that horse that beat him last time out (Benny the Bull) is the best sprinter in the country – and Abraaj lost by less than half a length to him.  I’ll give him the nod here.  Thor’s Echo and First Defence have every reason to wind up in the money today as well. Of those two I slightly prefer First Defence who has cracked 2 of three exactas so far this year. With such a short field you’d be perfectly sane to add a few more underneath than what I’m giving out. You know me though- always trying to cut corners and pinch pennies where I can.

Selections:

• 5/2,6/1,2,6 ($4)

Race 9 - The Grade 1 Go For Wand Handicap:

• #1 Ginger Punch (Rafael Bejarano) – 1/2*
• #2 Inside Passage (Eibar Coa) – 15/1
• #3 Indescribable (Kent Desormeaux) – 13/1
• #4 Moon Catcher (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
• #5 Copper State (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 10/1
• #6 Runway Rosie (R. Maragh) – 8/1
• #7 Over Under (Robby Albarado) – 20/1
• #1A Spring Waltz (Javier Castellano) – 1/2*

The 55thrunning of the Go For Wand  for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track is the closest thing to a “free square” folks playing the all-stakes pick 4 or the pick 6 will get on this card.  You just dont’ see anything close to super mare Ginger Punch in here. I think she could toy withthis field and win going away.  The funny thing is, the second best horse on paper is part of a coupled entry with her (#1A Spring Waltz). 

What this means is that we’ll probably have these two bet down to something like 1/5 by post time, effectively killing the prospects at high payouts in the pick 4 (more’s the pitty). So, if you think you’ve spotted a chink in her armor and can beat her – by all means try to do so as you should be well rewarded if right.  I tend to prefer  the bitter taste of chalk in this one allthe way.  I’m not going to make this one more difficult than it needs to be. Indescribable, Runway Rosie, and Moon Catcher could threaten for minor awards along with Spring Waltz. 

Selections:

• 1/3,5,6/3,5,6 ($6)

Race 10 – The Grade 1 Whitney Handicap

• #1 Commentator (Javier Velazquez) – 3/1
• #2 Solar Flare (Gabriel Saez) – 4/1
• #3 Notional (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
• #4 Cowtown Cat (Rafael Bejarano) – 20/1
• #5 Merchant Marine (R.Maragh) – 15/1
• #6 Tasteyville (M. Luzzi) – 12/1
• #7 Rising Moon (Cornelio Velasquez) – 10/1
• #8 Grasshopper (Robby Albarado) – 10/1
• #9 A.P. Arrow (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1
• #10 Student Council (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 6/1
• #11 Timber Reserve (Javier Castellano) – 20/1

We wind up the all-stakes pick 4 sequence with the 81st running of the  Whitney  Handicap for three-year-olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.  Rising Moon is the horse I’m interested in seeing in the post parade.  A lung infection may have caused this one the Suburban Handicap last out and if back to top form as trainer Richard Dutrow says (I know, I know – it’s Dutrow), than this one can easily turn the tables on rival Solar Flare in my opinion.  Stop and think about it.  If not for the lung infection you’d be looking at a horse with 5 consecutive wins in the books – and we’re getting him at 10/1?  Where do I sign up? 

Commentator looks like a solid candidate in here as well.  The thing with him is that he’s 7 years-old now and may not be running at his best distance.  He’s going to have to gun it from the rail, and there is other speed in here that should be making him earn it (namely #6 Tasteyville). That should set things up nicely for Rising Moon if he’s healthy, and Solar Flare if not.  There’s a slew of directions to go underneath.  Horses like Grasshopper, A.P. Arrow, and Student Council are all usable.  I prefer Grasshopper and A. P. arrow of that group due to their previous success here at Saratoga. Drilling down even further, of those two I’ll go with Grasshopper as one of my top choices underneath - even though he’s burned me numerous times since that battle with Street Sense in the Travers last August.

Selections:

• 7/2,8/1,2,8,9 ($6)

So, as far as formulating a pick 4 ticket for this all-stakes sequence, let’s see if we can’t get lucky with the following:

All-Stakes Pick 4 ($24)

• Race 7: 2,4,5,6
• Race 8: 5,6
• Race 9: 1
• Race 10: 1,2,7

Obviously if you have some deeper pockets you can add some additional horses in.  I thought the first leg was the most wide-open and opted for the deepest coverage there.  Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the racing action from Saratoga.