Del Mar Oaks comes up stacked

15 08 2008

Saturday’s 52nd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, going 1 1/8 miles over the turf, has come up as a very intriguing feature event.  Bettors will have several options available when trying to take down 6/5 favorite Storm Mesa, who seeks an impressive 6th straight  victory for owner Rick Davis andtrainer Bret Calhoun.  The 3-year-old daughter of Sky Mesa took to the turf quite impressively in the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 26 and was able to prevail despite being steadied midway through the race.  A field of 10 will compete for the $350,000 purse.

The field for the Oaks with jockeys and expected morning line odds:

  1. Storm Mesa (E. Martin) – 6/5*
  2. Ginger Pop (R.Migliore) – 12/1
  3. Lethal Heat (R. Bejarano) – 10/1
  4. OceaneMusic (M. Smith) – 15/1
  5. Magical Fantasy (A. Solis) – 20/1
  6. Bel Air Sizzle (C. Potts) - 12/1
  7. Misty Ocean (J. Rosario) – 6/1
  8. Satan’s Circus (G. Gomez) – 5/2
  9. Missit (D. Flores) – 10/1
  10. Million Dollar Run (T. Baze) – 20/1

The early pace could be decent in this one.  Lethal Heat will likely attempt to take the lead early on.  The question for the 3-year-old daughter of Unusual  Heat is going to be the 1 1/8 mile distance.  I’m not expecting that she’ll be able to hold on with such a competitive field here today.  Besides, I think Misty Ocean will be right there with her every step of the way breaking from the 7 hole. 

Ginger Pop and Storm Mesa should be sitting right behind Lethal Heat and Misty Ocean and will look to get first jump turning for home.  Ocean Music, Missit  and Million Dollar Run are not likely to let the leaders get too far away as they attempt to rate as well. 

This could set things up nicely for the closers in here, such as Bel Air Sizzle or Satan’s Circus.  Satan’s Circus in particular looks very playable as the 2nd choice on the morning line.  As noted by Michael Hammersly’s comments in the “a closer look” section of the DRF, this is a filly who has run respectably against the likes of Zarkava.  Zarkava is considered a serious player for the Arc de Triomphe – you know, that prestigious French turf race that Curlin was at one time pointing towards.  Not bad, huh?   It took all Pure Clan had to get past her in the American Oaks last month, andnow she switches to Garrett Gomez.  She ran well enough in the American Oaks to win, with Pure Clan having to punch through horses late while Satan’s Circus bursted to the outside of the fading Raw Silk.  Pure Clan was able to hold on, andClearly Foxy was gaining late, but she looked like a Grade 1 winner that day and if anyone is going to stop the consecutive race streak of Storm Mesa here today, it’ll be Satan’s Circus.

It would be hard to imagine Storm Mesa not finishing in the exacta (at least).  In fact, if s he keeps running like she has this whole thing could be over before it’s begun. I just think 6/5 is a bit tough to swallow here.  As she’s “classed up”, the competition has been getting closer to her, and then there’s the issue of the distance in the Oaks.  Is 1 1/4 miles a good fit for her, and are you confident enough to take 6/5 on that?  I think the world of her, but I’ll be playing against her today.  She’ll likely get a beautiful trip and I wouldn’t worry at all about her being on the turf.  Her San Clemente win was much more impressive than the Beyer figure or the running line as a whole suggest.  Obviously you play against a winner of 5 straight races at your own risk.  She has my respect, she won’t have my prime wagering dollars.

I’m thinking Misty Ocean has a chance to hang around for a minor award unless she gets absolutely toasted on the front.  If her and Ginger Pop go at it up front they are likely both gone when it counts.  As such, I’ll also add in the French invader, Oceane Music.  It looks like she’ll get a nice trip just like Storm Mesa tracking the leaders.   In fact, she could be good enough to crack the exacta.  On the other hand, it will be her U.S. debut so make sure you get a look at her in the post parade for any clues on how she may run.  If she doesn’t make a good impression, Bel Air Sizzle or Missit would likely make a useful alternative in the wagering.

8/1,4,7/1,4,7


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Categories : Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News

Big showdown (maybe) in little Alabama

15 08 2008

Saturday’s running of the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga Race Track is supposed to be a showdown between top 3-year-old fillies Proud Spell and Music Note.  However, as of late Friday evening that remains somewhat in doubt.  That’s because Sheik Mohammed and Godolfin Stables, owners of Music Note, are still toying with the idea of facing off against some of the top 3-year-old colts in the Travers Stakes next weekend.

The 1 1/4 mile Alabama is one of the bigger stakes of the Saratoga meet, attracting some of the top fillies in the nation in each year with a $600,000 purse.  Even if Music Note departs, we’ll still have a decent matchup with Proud Spell and Little Belles. In fact, Little Belles is officially listed as coupled with Music Note for Godolphin Stables and trainer Saeed bin Suroor. The field for the Alabama is as follows:

  • #2 Proud Spell (G.Saez) – 8/5
  • #1 Music Note (J.Castellano) – 4/5*
  • #3 Skylighter (E. Prado) – 15/1
  • #4 Mushka (J. Velazquez) – 6/1
  • #1A Little Belle (R. Maragh) – 4/5*
  • #5 Sweet Vendetta (R. Dominguez) – 8/1

Assuming Music Note runs tomorrow, I firmly believe it’s her race to lose.  When coupled with the feisty Little Belle, Music Note would appear to make a strong favorite to beat.  She exits 4 consecutive impressive victories, including a dominating 11 length victory in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks over Little Belle, and a 3 length victory over Proud Spell in the Grade 1 Mother Goose after stumbling at the start.

 

Music Note defeats Proud Spell in the G1 Mother Goose on 6/28/08 at Belmont Park

 

If Music Note were to scratch and opt for the Travers, than the Alabama would appear to be a two horse race between Little Belle and Proud Spell.  In such a case, Proud Spell would likely inherit post time favoritism over Little Belle,  While Little Belle and Proud Spell have taken turns beating one another, with Little Belle prevailing in the Ashland and Proud Spell turning the tables on her in the Kentucky Oaks, it’s important to note that Proud Spell is the much more accomplished runner on the dirt.  Proud Spell also has the always dangerous Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez tandem, and I’m not sure there’s a better trainer/jockey tandem for 3-year-old fillies in the nation.

Looking at the rest of the field, Skylighter is a Robert Frankel trainee that took 6 tries before breaking her maiden 2 starts ago.  She came back to beat N1X Optional Claimers  at the $75,000 level last time out and is taking quite a class hike today.  It’s good to see that she’s headed in the right direction, but it’s hard to expect her to run her best race here with out quite a bit of racing luck.  Mushka was a Grade 2 winner in the Demoisel as a 2-year-old, but was a beaten favorite against weaker in her 3-year-old debut on July 25. 

Sweet Vendetta is probably the most attractive of the longer shots on the board.  I was on hand at Pimlico to watch her prevail in the Black Eyed Susan over a very sloppy Pimlico track on May 16.  The win marked her 2nd in a row and 3rd in her last 4 races.  In fact, in her last 4 starts, Little Belle is the only horse to have defeated Sweet Vendetta.

This doesn’t have the makings of a good betting race, but as I’m a guy  that likes to have at least a small amount of action on the major races, here’s how I’d play it.  If Music Note runs she’s the obvious win candidate, and good luck trying to beat her.  I’d use Proud Spell and Sweet Vendetta underneath in the exacta and trifecta.   If Music Note is out than I think you play Proud Spell for the win, with LIttle Belle and Sweet Vendetta underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

1/2,5/2,5  (If Music Note runs)

2/1,5/1,5 (If Music Note scratches)

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Music Note, Proud Spell, Saratoga


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