THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

This Saturday’s 139th running of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Track looks like it may be the best 3-year-old race of the year.  Certainly it’s the most competitive from top to bottom since the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. We may not have Big Brown, but we’ve got a full field of 12 contenders and what looks like a great betting race.

The field for the 1 1/4 miles G1 Travers:

1. Tale of Ekati  (E. Prado) 20/1
2. Colonel John (G. Gomez) 8/1
3. Da’ Tara (A. Garcia) 8/1
4. Tizbig (C. Velasquez) 30/1
5. Macho Again (J. Leparoux) 6/1
6. Cool Coal Man (J. Velazquez) 15/1
7. Amped (J. Chavez) 30/1
8. Harlem Rocker (E. Coa) 4/1
9. Mambo in Seattle (R. Albarado) 5/1
10.  Tres Borrachos (T.Baze) 15/1
11.  Pyro (S.Bridgmohan) 7/2*
12.  Court Vision (K. Desormeaux) 12/1

Let’s start with a feel for how the pace sets up.  Looking at the race on paper we appear to have the makings of a speed duel between Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara and Tizbig. In other words a showdown could be brewing between a pair of Tiznow colts, who are known for having quite a bit of fight in them.  Add to that the fact that the two are posted eyeball to eyeball in the 3 and 4 holes, respectively, and it looks like we’ve got a battle on our hands up front early on.  I’ll be honest, I’m not sure which one is quicker.  Da’ Tara would appear to need the lead a bit more, but Tizbig is stepping up in class and will likely need to be fairly quick out of the gate. 

This should set things up for one of the runners coming off the pace. The question is who might get too close if a speed duel occurs and who might find themselves having some late traffic trouble?  Pyro is favored at 7/2, but I’m betting that won’t be the case at post time.  The two horses everyone is talking about are Todd Pletcher’s Harlem Rocker and the Neil Howard trained Mambo in Seattle.  I’d tend to agree that they look like the pair to beat on paper.

We’ll start with Harlem Rocker.  He graces the cover of the Saturday Daily Racing Form.  The impressive son of Macho Uno has run up a 4 for 5 lifetime record on his way to $445,000 in earnings.   The win that sticks out is the Grade 3 Withers where he defeated J Be K by 2 1/2 lengths and earned a 106 Beyer figure.  However, the race that most horseplayers are focusing on is his last effort.  While the 90 Beyer speed figure in the Prince of Wales may not seem like a winner on paper, it’s important to note that Harlem Rocker fought back in the stretch and refused to go down in defeat.  That’s big.  He strikes me as a colt with a lot of upside that we probably haven’t seen the best from.

Mambo in Seattle is a fast improving son of Kingmambo who will be piloted by Robby Albarado.  I know a lot of people are picking this guy and I can see why.  Let me just make the argument though that despite the sexy improving Beyer figures, that this is a horse “classing up”, potentially quite a bit.  This of course despite the fact that I don’t think this year’s 3-year-old crop was on par with those of recent memory.  Collectively I think this field will give him all he can handle, and he’s going to have to earn it if he’s to prevail. 

Pyro is a shaky favorite in my opinion.  Don’t get me wrong.  I love the guy.  He was one of my favorites leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and I thought the Jim Dandy was a lock for him. Unfortunately he was upset by Macho Again, who will 6 lanes to his inside at the start of the race.  I’d look for a better performance from Pyro.  This is a battle tested member of this field, from his races against 2-year-old champion War Pass as a juvenile to his victories in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Northern Dancer.   I think he’ll turn the tables on Macho Again today, but I’m a bit worried drawing the outside might leave him ducking in to save ground early on and then encountering some traffic problems if/when the field starts coming back to him.  He’s a player and he can win this thing with a solid run, but I’ll pass on the morning line favoritism and go with Harlem Rocker for the win.

As for the rest of the field, yeah…I guess I’ve got to own up to it everytime this guy runs.  Fine – I was a Colonel John guy going into the Derby. There, I’ve said it.  In my defense I had Big Brown ranked #1 from the Florida Derby on, but that matters not when you give out the Colonel as your Derby pick.  I still like him, just not here and not on dirt.  I’d love to see him thunder home on top, but I’m not seeing it. 

Macho Again looks quite playable underneath at 6/1.   When you consider he’s been 2nd to Big Brown and has defeated Pyro, it’s hard not to like the “other” son of Macho Uno in the field today.  If you scratch a line through his Belmont run (you’d do it for Big Brown, right?) then his Derby Trial, Preakness, and Jim Dandy runs look pretty darn good against this field.  I have a feeling he’ll be right there in the thick of things in what should be a great finish to the Travers. 

I’ll paly Harlem Rocker for the win over Pyro and Mambo in Seattle for place.  To fill out the trifecta I’ll add in Macho Again for show.  I’m also going to toss in Cool Coal Man who may get a nice, if uninspiring trip.  He’s got a habit of sticking around if you toss out the obvious scratch in the Derby and a synthetics debacle in the Blue Grass.

8/9, 11/5, 6, 9, 11 ($6)

Unless of course one of you convinces me to go in another direction.