Let me just start off by saluting “the Colonel.” We were away most of the day yesterday, so I didn’t get to see the Travers until last night. When I saw that Colonel John had won, my first reaction was “huh????” I had convinced myself that it was foolhardy to run the colt over dirt again after his Kentucky Derby run. In so doing I broke one of my cardinal rules in handicapping. Think about it – if Colonel John was good enough for me to give out against Big Brown in the Derby, shouldn’t he have been good enough for me to give out in the Travers? Alas, I didn’t give him out (I sided with Harlem Rocker), and he goes on to nail Mambo in Seattle at the wire by a nose bob.
This means I’m seeking a bit of redemption heading into Sunday. I’m going to focus on Del Mar since we’ve got the Pacific Classic and a bevy of other good stakes races to ponder. I love playing these “all stakes” pick 4’s, and Del Mar has one for us in races 7 through 10 on Sunday.
Starting with the Rancho Bernardo (Grade 2) in race 7, I like #3 Magnificence here. She’s going to have to turn the tables on main rival #7 Dearest Tricksi, but I fully expect this to happen. Dearest Tricksi handed Magnificence her first defeat last time out, and I keep coming up with these guys as the top two for the Rancho Bernardo. Underneath those two I’d play #1 Silky Smooth and #6 Lethal Heat.
3/1,7/1,6,7 ($4)
Moving on to the Grade 2 Pat O’ Brien in race 8, we’ve got what appers to be a heck of a sprint on paper. #3 Midnight Lute won the Breeder’s Cup Sprint last year and looks like a serious player here. Don’t discount #8 In Summation though. I’ll let you in on a little tidbit that might interest you. A few weeks ago I was off from work one afternoon and was conversing with TVG’s Rich Perloff. I asked him who he thought would in a sprint battle between Benny the Bull and Street Boss, two of the best sprinters in the nation. Rich came back and said In Summation is the horse he’d want to see in that race. I’ve gone back and watched some of In Summation’s races and have officially jumped on the bandwagon (though I’d still take Street Boss in the theoretical race just described). Underneath these top two I’ll use #6 Barbecue Eddie and #2 Rebellion.
8/3,6/2,3,6 ($4)
Moving on to the Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2), I think this race is all about #8 Daytona. If the “real” Daytona shows up than the others should be running for place and show. If he doesn’t show up, than things open up a bit for several contenders. #10 Monzante and #4 Whatsthescript look like the two major challengers, and I’ll play both of them underneath for place on the trifecta. Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in #3 Storm Military.
8/4,10/3,4,10 ($4)
The feature race of the day is obviously the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. When looking over this field it looks like a lot of speed has signed on . As such, I’m looking for a runner who should benefit from the pace up front, and I keep winding up with #6 Go Between and #10 Student Council. Of those two I prefer Go Between, although Student Council is a horse that has burned me before. #7 Well Armed would be much more attractive to me if there wasn’t as much other speed in the race. I like this guy and thought he returned from Dubai in good form. He’s the horse I wanted to make “the pick”, but ultimately had to side against. Of the rest of the runners, I think #4 Surf Cat could be finishing well and has a good shot to hit the board.
6/7,10/4,7,10 ($4)
As for the “all stakes” Pick 4 ticket, my initial opinion would look like this – although I’ll definitely be checking out the post parade of the Rancho Bernardo to finalize my opinion:
- Race 7: 3, 7
- Race 8: 3, 8
- Race 9: 4, 8, 10
- Race 10: 6, 7, 10
Total cost: $36 (2×2x3×3=36).
Best of luck to everyone who is playing along. It’s been a while since we’ve had such a totally stacked Sunday card. Hopefully this is an opportunity to end our weekends on a high note.
I had the Colonel picked from the Derby and on Saturday also. I have not seen anyone pick Colonel John on Saturday for the Travers.
He had a terrible trip in the Derby. I always told everyone it had nothing to do with the dirt track. On April 27th he worked at Churchill downs a 5f workout in 57 and 4/5ths. How much faster can you be? It was like what Hard Spun did before the Derby. This was all I needed to see. Everyone overlooked it though. If a horse does not like the dirt, how can he work fast on it then? I don’t know if he would have beaten Big Brown that day, but he sure would have given him a run.
Hi,
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@Tiff – I’ll have to check that out, Tiff. The work week is a bit hectic at the moment, so I’ll try to get back to you over the holiday weekend here.
@Mike – I know…and looking back his Derby trip wasn’t all that bad considering what he went through. He still came up on the outside turning for home and looked like he might get involved, but by then Big Brown and Eight Belles were seperating from the field. I should’ve given him more of a chance. To not pick him for the win is understandable – but I didn’t even have him in my trifecta. I think that’s the part that bothers me the most.
Oh well…I came back with Go Between in the P.C. Classic on Sunday. Can’t win ‘em all, I suppose.
Saw your boy Visionaire over the weekend as well.
Kevin,
It looks as though we got beat in the same race in the Del Mar sequence. Couldn’t see Lewis Michael run that huge. In hindsight, we should have thrown in the stranger-danger considering Catalano clicks at over 40% at AP and attracted Douglas for the race. How could all the Cali runners (In Summation, Rebellion, Midnight Lute) get beaten so badly?
Regarding CJ in the Travres, that was a tough photo to sweat and fortunately completed my daily double improbably. I was happy to cash, but feel a little like I stole money considering how Gomez shut off Macho Again and Leparoux. Did it look like they may have even side-swiped ‘em?
After Gomez gave me money in the Travers, I had to key him in the Pacific Classic exactas which included Well Armed, Awesome Gem and Student Council…great call on the exacta yourself!
I know what they say about what happens in Vegas, but, come on, give us something.
Geezus. You haven’t even left yet, have you?
Not yet – we fly out on 9/21. Still working on ironing out ideas. We’re not going to totally save the sport in one fell swoop – but we are tasked with coming up with ways to market to a younger audience. We’re tossing everything around, from marketing to advertising, to things tracks can do for little to no cost. I’ll share our major points once we’ve had a chance to pitch them. Don’t want to let the cat out of the bag beforehand.
Here’s my suggestion for attracting a younger audience:
sweet beer specials at the track.