THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

By far the highlight race this weekend will be Saturday’s 55th running of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, featuring defending Horse of the Year winner Curlin.  The race marks the champs return to dirt after a game effort finishing 2nd in the Man O’ War at Belmont Park.  All eyes will be on the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike as he attempts to climb to 2nd place on the all-time earnings list behind the legendary Cigar.

The field for the Woodward sets up like this:

1. A.P. Arrow (C. Velasquez) 20/1
2. Loose Leaf (E. Coa) 15/1
3. Past the Point (E. Prado) 15/1
4. Divine Park (A. Garcia) 3/1
5. Curlin (R. Albarado) 3/5*
6. Dr. D.E.C. (A. Arboleda) 50/1
7. Out of Control (J. Velasquez) 12/1
8. Wanderin Boy (J. Leparoux) 8/1

Curlin ought to be able to negotiate a good trip in the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Woodward.  Curlin is 2 for 3 lifetime at this distance, along with a 3rd place finish.  I’m on the record as saying I prefer 1 1/4 miles for Curlin in an ideal situation, but the appealing aspect of the Woodward beyond the historic significance of Curlin running at Saratoga is that the filed will all be carrying 126 pounds.  Additionally, he’s been training well, trainer Steve Asmussen says he should be able to handle the tighter turns of the Saratoga dirt track. 

Wanderin Boy figures to be the early pace setter breaking from the outside.  I could see Curlin being just off him, as I don’t think Albarado wants to allow Divine Park to get first jump on him after what happened when Red Rocks was able to do so in the Man O’ War.  Both Curlin and Divine Park figure to be stalking well early on.  Turning for home I expect these two to surge pass Wanderin Boy and from there we’ll see what kind of fight Divine Park has in him.  If anyone is going to beat Curlin, it would appear Divine Park is the horse for the job.

Looking at the rest of the field, Past the Point could be a factor in things early on as well as Loose Leaf.  Still, I wouldn’t expect a very hot pace on Saturday.  Wanderin Boy could well be comfortably alone on the lead in the early going.  If the pace does heat up, that would seem to work into the hands of both Curlin and Divine Park.  Additionally, I wouldn’t count A.P.Arrow out from making a late run at things. 

The x-factor of the race would appear to be Out of Control, a 5 year-old son of Vettori (Machiavellian).  Like Curlin, he’ll be making the turf-to-dirt move for the Woodward, and could beany kid of horse on the surface switch.  The limited runs he’s had on dirt have certainly not been disgraceful, with a win and a show in 2 starts.   He could well be right there with Curlin and Divine Park in an exciting finish to the Woodward if Curlin doesn’t show up with his best stuff.

I’ll obviously be playing Curlin for the win – but go with either Divine Park or Out of Control if you’re trying to make a score.  There’s not a lot of money to be made on a 3/5 favorite.  Underneath I’ll use the two horses I just mentioned (Divine Park and Out of Control), and I’ll toss in Wanderin Boy and A.P. Arrow for show.

5/4,7/1,4,7,8 ($6)

As for the undercard,  Lucky Island looks like a horse you could single on and/or construct a trifecta around in the Forego (race 9).  I’d use First Defence underneath, and would probably include him on any multi-race wagers as well.  Eternal Star, Tasteyville, Ferocious Fires, and Premium Wine all warrant observation in the post parade as well, as any of them could wind hitting the board.  My straight-up prediction would be:  7/2/5

Here’s wishing everyone well in your Saturday wagering.  I’ve also got to give a quick nod to my beloved Alabama Crimson Tide who will be kicking off against Clemson later in the night.  Roll Tide!  Would be quite a night if Curlin and Alabama were to come through for me.  Go baby, go!  Run ‘em down Curlin!!!!