Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year, has broken the all-time earnings record for a North American thoroughbred held since 1996 by the great Cigar.
Curlin thundered home in the slop at Belmont Park becoming only the 9th horse in history to capture consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cup victories, joining the likes of Kelso, Dark Secret, and Skip Away.
The victory vaulted Curlin to an amazing $10,246,800 in all-time earnings, quite a feat for a horse making just his 15th lifetime start. The son of Smart Strike is now 11 for 15 lifetime. The legendary Cigar earned $9,999,815 in 33 lifetime starts.
Could a date with destiny against Big Brown in the Breeder’s Cup Classic await next month? The horse racing world waits with baited breath. The two top horses in the world. Horse of the Year honors on the line. Perhaps the swan song of one of the greatest runners we have been blessed to see.
There’s always been something about this chestnut. From the moment he stepped onto the track, he’s had “it” – whatever “it” is. He’s the kind of horse that makes you stop in your tracks and take notice. As a horse racing fan, it’s been the joy of a lifetime to cheer him on. He just makes you so darn proud of him.
Way to go Curlin! You’re the best in the world and now all the heathens know it.
EDIT: Apparently Curlin is indeed headed to the Breeder’s Cup Classic! Bloodhorse has the quote.
Looking over the Oak Tree card for Saturday, it isn’t hard to tell that many horses are gearing up for their runs in the Breeder’s Cup championship races next month at Santa Anita. Some HUGE names dot the card, such as Street Boss, Hystericalady, and of course the super-filly Zenyatta – who when all is said and done could be the sleeper pick for Horse of the Year honors.
We’ve already taken a look at Curlin’s historic run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the equally exciting races that highlight the Belmont undercard, so now we’ll switch gears a bit and look at many of the Grade 1 races that highlight the Oak Tree card.
Race 5: The Lady’s Secret – Grade 1 – 1 1/16 Miles – $250,000
Super Freaky – Doug O’Neil (M. Garcia) 15/1
Wake Up Maggie – Julio Canini (Tyler Baze) 8/1
Hystericalady – Jerry Hollendorfer (Garrett Gomez) 7/5
Zenyatta – John Shirreffs(Michael Smith) 1/1*
Santa Teresita – Eric Guillot (Michael Baze) 10/1
“She’s a super-freak, super-freak (she’s super freaky)…”
The 16th running of the Lady’s Secret is all about Zenyatta. The amazing daughter of Street Cry goes for her 8th consecutive win and attempts to keep her perfect record in tact. A small field of 4 other runners will contest her, with the most likely challenge coming from the classy Hystericalady on the front end.
It’s possible Hystericalady could wire this field and put an end to Zenyatta’s glorious run of consecutive victories, but I still think Zenyatta gets her at the wire. For those of you who are favorite-busters and abhor the taste of chalk, Hystericalady is the obvious choice as anyone else would be a jaw-dropping surprise.
Zenyatta’s an absolute freak of nature – and it’ll take the likes of a Curlin or a Big Brown to take her down – and even then it won’t be a foregone conclusion. Indeed, “from her hair down to her (hoof) nails” - she’s as super-freaky as they come. While she may not “need” the race, with her eligibility for the Breeder’s Cup already solidly confirmed, she’s the kind of competitor that always gives her best. Plus, I still think we’ve yet to see her absolute best. Freaky indeed.
Outside of these two, I thought Santa Teresita had the best shot of hitting the board, based largely on her performances in the Milady and Hawthorne Handicaps at Hollywood Park earlier in the year.
Selections: 4/3/5 ($1)
Race 6: The Ancient Title – Grade 1 – 6 Furlongs – $250,000
In Summation – Christopher Clement (Corey Nakatani) 3/1
Esperamos – Wesley Ward (J.A. Garcia) 8/1
Cost of Freedom – John Sadler (Tyler Baze) 5/1
The 24th running of the Ancient Title is highlighted by top California sprinter Street Boss – a horse I’ve been looking to single come Breeder’s Cup weekend for several months now. A closing type, many will be worried a bit about the rail post position, but all one need do is watch the replay of Street Boss’s amazing run in the Bing Crosby Handicap on July 27 at Del Mar to alleviate those concerns. Judging from that performance, this horse can do it all – and he should be fresh for Saturday’s rendition of the Ancient Title.
In Summation is the horse with the highest probability of pulling the upset, in my humble opinion. Looking back at the Bing Crosby, you can make a case that despite Street Boss having to circle the field, that it was In Summation who had the tougher trip. They were only separatedby 1 length at the wire, and it’s not hard to imagine Street Boss potentially encountering traffic problems today while In Summation explodes to the finish. In other words, I’d cover this number in the exotic wagers today.
Street Boss circles the field while In Summation encounters a bit of trouble in the Bing Crosby Handicap – 7/27/08
Cost of Freedom and Idiot Proof look useful to me underneath. Idiot Proof should be part of the pace and has a habit of sticking around and finishing in the exacta and/or trifecta. Cost of Freedom is moving up in class big time today, but there’s hints that this 5-year-old son of Cee’s Tizzy has rounded into fine form since joining the John Sadler barn. Note the sharp workouts and that sharp 110 Beyer figure last out.
Selections: 1/4,6,8/4,5 6,8 ($9)
Race 9: The Yellow Ribbon – Grade 1 – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – $400,000
High Heel Sneakers – B.D. Cecil (Victor Espinoza) 30/1
Vacare – Christopher Clement (Cory Nakatani) 3/1
I Can See – Steve Knapp (J. Rosario) 15/1
Black Mamba – John Sadler (Garrett Gomez) 9/2
Valbenny – Robert Frankel (Alex Solis) 10/1
Solva – B.D. Cecil (Aaron Gryder) 6/1
Gula Gold – Jerry Hollendorfer (Michael Baze) 30/1
Marzelline – B.D. Cecil (Tyler Baze) 20/1
Live Life – Leonard Powell (J. Couton) 20/1
Wait a While – Todd Pletcher (J. Velazquez) 7/5*
The 32nd running of the Yellow Ribbon gives us a 10 horse field with several options to chose from. Wait a While looks like a deserving favorite to me. She’s got 11 wins in 22 lifetime starts, and is near perfect over the Santa Anita turf. The key with her will be how she handles the outside post draw. She’s classy enough to overcome that positioning, as evidenced by her victory from the outside post in the 2006 edition of the Yellow Ribbon, but she does seem to bounce up-and-down on the Beyer scale, so perhaps this is a day to take a shot against her?
Black Mamba looks like a live competitor to me. Her victories in the Mabee and Beverly Hills Handicaps looked better visually than they appear on paper, but clearly with her Beyer potential she ranks as a legitimate threat to Wait a While. Vacare is another classy runner that it’s hard to get a firm fixture on. Wait a While was able to defeat her on the Saratoga turf when they met last summer, but she’s eligible to turn the tables if she gets a solid trip.
The early speed in this race doesn’t look too formidable for the off-the-pace types to overcome, and I’m expecting a thrilling finish here with as many as 4 horses having a real shot at reaching the winner’s circle. As a longshot choice, consider tossing in the Steve Knapp runner I Can See. I Can See has been literally”right there” with Black Mamba a couple of times in recent memory, and one gets the feeling that things may break her way at some point. Still, you’d have to expect Wait a While and Black Mamba to have a better overall chance of winning.
Valbenny and Solva are also horses that could be right there in the thick of things as the field turns for home, and both warrant consideration and closer inspection during the post parade.
Selections: 10/2,4/2,3,4,5,6 ($8)
Race 10: The Goodwood – Grade 1 – 1 1/8 Miles – $500,000
Zappa – John Sadler (Jonathan Rosario) 8/1
Tres Borrachos – Beau Greely (Tyler Baze) 20/1
Informed – Doug O’Neil (M. Garcia) 30/1
Surf Cat – Bruce Headley (David Flores) 6/1
Slew’s Tiznow – Dough O’Neil (Alex Quinonez) 15/1
Albertus Maximus – Vladimir Cerin (Garrett Gomez) 8/1
Well Armed – Eoin Harty (Aaron Gryder) 3/1*
Tiago – John Shirreffs(Michael Smith) 7/2
Spirit One – Philippe Demercastel (I. Mendizabal) 10/1
Mostacolli Mort – Julio Canini (Martin Pedroza) 12/1
Mast Track – Robert Frankel (J. Velazquez) 9/2
The 27th running of the Goodwood is technically the “feature” race on the card, despite the presence of Street Boss and Zenyatta in earlier races, and offers a glimpse into how certain horses may handle the synthetic track during the upcoming Breeder’s Cup Classic. At one point it was rumored that Curlin was possibly coming for the Goodwood. While we don’t have a Curlin, per say, we do have a wide open field with numerous horses that could pull off the victory.
Well Armed will likely take most of the play at the windows as he has the kind of speed that could result in a gate-to-wire victory here. I ended up siding with him in second place and took a shot on an x-factor horse for top honors, namely the turf sensation Spirit One, who scored an upset over Archipenko and others in the Arlington Million in early August. If Spirt One’s turf form transfers to the synthetic track at Santa Anita – watch out, as we my just have another contender for the Classic on our hands.
Tiago is a horse I’ve historically used in my selections, and while I like how he’s training since his latest freshening, he hasn’t quite been the same over synthetics since his victory in last year’s Goodwood. Well Armed will give him something to run at, but he might need this race as a prep for the Classic.
Surf Cat, Zappa, and Mast Track are all runners I’d also consider using in some fashion – as anyone could find the board.
Selections: 9/7,11/4,7,8,11 ($6)
Best of luck to all and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.
We’ve already covered Curlin’s quest for all-time glory at Belmont Park on Saturday in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – but let’s not forget about the other Grade 1 races in the Pick 4 sequence. Starting in race 7 with the Flower Bowl Invitational, the sequence proceeds to include the Vosburgh, the Joe Hirsch Classic Invitational, and of course the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Let’s take a closer look at each on a race by race basis.
Race 7: The Flower Bell Invitational – Grade 1 – 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) – $600,000
Palmilla – Jonathan Sheppard (Edgar Prado) 8/1
Communique – George Arnold (Javier Castellano) 4/1
Dynaforce – Bill Mott (Alan Garcia) 7/2
Mauralakana – Christopher Clement (Kent Desormeaux) 1/1*
Jade Queen – Todd Pletcher (Rafael Bejarano) 15/1
Hostess – Harold Bond (Richard Maragh) 6/1
The 31st running of the Flower Bell features a 6 horse field going 1 1/4 miles over the inner turf track at Belmont Park. Mauralakana is the standout even money favorite on the morning line, and for good reason. The 5-year-old Christopher Clement trainee has won 4 consecutive races, and has defeated most of today’s more serious rivals, including Hostess, Dynaforce, and Communique.
The likely lone speed of the race is 15/1 longshot Jade Queen – whose career best Beyer figure (102) came at this distance back on 10/7/06 at Belmont. Jade Queen has had trouble holding on for victories (she hasn’t won since August of 2006), but has managed to find the exacta in 2 of her last 6 tries, and the trifecta in 4 of her last 6. I think you’ve got to use her then as lone speed at 15/1.
Dynaforce is probably the only real threat to Mauralakana in this one, although Hostess does own the last victory over Mauralakana. I’ll play the favorite on top with Dynaforce and Jade Queen underneath for place. I’ll toss in Hostess for show to round out the ticket.
Lucky Island – Kiaran McLaughlin (Alan Garcia) 2/1*
First Defence – Robert Frankel (C. Hill) 4/1
Kodiak Kowboy – Larry Jones (Gabriel Saez) 10/1
Rockerfeller – Martin Wolfson (Eddie Castro) 6/1
Black Seventeen – Brian Koriner (Clinton Potts) 12/1
The 69th running of the Vosburgh features seven horses going 6 furlongs over the main dirt track. Right off the bat you can tell there’s plenty of speed in here, both to the inside and the outside. Fabulous Strike is a fine runner breaking from the rail – but he’s going to have to go full speed every step of the way to prevail here. The son of Smart Strike will be hard pressed by the runner to his immediate outside, J Be K, and the runner on the extreme outside, Black Seventeen.
This should set things up nicely for an off-the-pace type, and there are several lively challengers that fit that profile. Lucky Island was undefeated in 4 races so far this year before stumbling at the break as the post time favorite in the Grade 1 Forego on August 30. That stumble took him out of the race and set things up for another of today’s off-the-pace rivals in First Defence. I still feel Lucky Island is the better of the two and would expect him to turn the tables on First Defence today. Still, I think you’ve got to include First Defence on any multi race exotic wagers such as the Pick 4. Likewise, I wouldn’t count out Rockerfeller either. The 4-year-old son of Maria’s Mon hasn’t faced Grade1 competition before, but he classed up rather well only being beaten by 3 lengths to the great sprinter Benny the Bull two races back. That hints at this horse having legitimate talent, and he’ll likely be forgotten a bit at the windows in favor of those with more class on paper. Just remember, outside of perhaps Street Boss, it doesn’t get any classier in a sprint than Benny the Bull.
I’d love to use Fabulous Strike, but with the abundance of speed I can really only see him hanging on for place, or more likely show. I’ll use the favorite Lucky Island on top, toss in First Defence and Rockerfeller for place, and give Fabulous Strike and longshot Kodiak Kowboy a chance to hit the board for show.
Selections: 3/4,6/1,4,5,6 ($6)
Race 9: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational – Grade 1 – 1 1/2 miles (Turf) – $600,000
Interpatation – Robert Barbara (Kent Desormeaux) 20/1
Elusive Fort – Raja Malek (Robby Albarado) 20/1
Dancing Forever – Claude McGaughey (Rene Douglass) 5/2*
Proudinsky – Robert Frankel (Ramon Dominguez) 3/1
Summer Patriot – Barclay Tagg (Eibar Coa) 8/1
Grand Couturier – Robert Ribaudo (Alan Garcia) 7/2
Strike a Deal – Alan Goldberg (Javier Castellano) 6/1
Presious Passion – Mary Hartmann (Eddie Castro) 10/1
Jade’s Revenge – Graham Motion (Edgar Prado) 15/1
The 32nd running of the Joe Hirsch features a field of 9 runners going a grueling 1 1/2 miles over the turf for a total purse of $600,000. There are some familiar names here, including Proudinksy – who we recently saw finishing a game 2nd to Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes. There’s also Grand Couturier, winner of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer against Better Talk Now, and who also finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind Curlin and Red Rocks in the Man O’ War.
From a pace standpoint, the outside horses, Strike a Deal, Presious Passion, and Jade’s Revenge could be involved together early on. To be honest though, I see Presious Passion getting a clear lead and taking this group around the track at a moderate pace. Strike a Deal is his likely challenger, although I suspect he’ll prefer to rate today considering the added ground he’s up against for the first time. Jade’s Revenge could be sent from the outside, but I’m guessing he’ll duck in and try to save some ground as he’s an outsider on paper.
The three horses I think will be right there with a chance to make a move turning for home are Grand Couturier (hard to argue with 4 wins at the 1 1/2 mile distance), Dancing Forever (who Shug McGauhey out to have back in the form that earned him favoritism in the Sword Dancer), and Summer Patriot (a longshot who is on the improve). I think any one of these guys can get it done.
Since I’m no where near as good a turf handicapper as I am a dirt handicapper (one must be conscious of their limitations in this game), I’ll spread the wealth on my pick 4 ticket and cover all of the above. I’ll throw Proudinksy in there as well as I feel that Big Brown may be an even better turf horse than he is on dirt, and Proudinsky was right there with him in the Monmouth Stakes.
Selections: 6/3,5/3,4,5,8 ($6)
The play of the day will be the Pick 4 ticket, centered around Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Pick 4: 3,5/1,3,4,6/3,4,5,6/5 ($32)
Best of luck to all – and be sure to check for late scratches and changes as you never know what’ll happen out there with the wet stuff coming down.
All eyes in the world of thoroughbred horse racing will be firmly fixed on defending 2007 Horse of the Year winner Curlin as he goes for history this Saturday in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. If he can pull out another victory, the talented son of Smart Strike will pass the legendary Cigar on the all-time earnings list for North American thoroughbreds, and pass the $10,000,000 threshold.
As many of you know who read this blog frequently, I consider myself one of (if not THE) biggest Curlin fan in the world. From the moment I first saw him I knew he’d be the type of horse to make history, and if all goes to plan this Saturday he will add to his growing legacy. The elephant in the room will continue to be the possible showdown with Big Brown (and perhaps Zenyatta? more on that later) in the Breeder’s Cup Classic next month at Santa Anita. For now though, much like a top ranked collegiate football team progressing through it’s schedule of games (no offense to USC fans), I’d prefer to take it one race at a time. Let’s get the Gold Cup victory and then we’ll start thinking about next steps.
Curlin exits a surprisingly competitive rendition of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes on August 30 at Saratoga, which depending on how you look at it either should help him get into top form or offers a hint that perhaps it’s possible to defeat him – even on dirt. No doubt the other 8 horses competing against him in the Gold Cup will hope it’s the latter. Me, I’ll be banking on the former. No surprise there, huh?
The field for the Jockey Club Gold Cup:
Ravel – Todd Pletcher (Rafael Bejarano) 30/1
Merchant Marine – Allen Jerkens (Cornelio Velasquez) 12/1
Timber Reserve – John Kimmel (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1
Wanderin Boy – Nick Zito (Alan Garcia) 10/1
Curlin – Steve Asmussen (Robby Albarado) 3/5*
Angliana – Gary Contessa (Richard Maragh) 10/1
A.P. Arrow – Todd Pletcher (Ramon Dominguez) 20/1
Stones River – Larry Jones (Gabriel Saez) 20/1
Mambo in Seattle – Neil Howard (Edgar Prado) 7/2
Conventional wisdom says that the most likely challenger to Curlin will be Mambo in Seattle – who we last saw getting nosed out by Colonel John in the Travers at Saratoga on 8/23. I think it goes without saying that Colonel John and Pyro (the other in-the-money finishers from the Travers) are not quite of Curlin’s caliber. Still, Mambo in Seattle has improved nicely in each of the last three races. He’s going to need to move forward once again if he’s to threaten an upset over the defending 2007 Horse of the Year.
Mambo in Seattle loses a heart breaker to Colonel John in the 2008 Travers Stakes at Saratoga
Looking at the pace setup of this race, I think we’ve got two horses who could battle it out for the early the lead. Both Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine have shown desires to go for the front early on, and I’ve got to think that in their trainer’s minds the vision of Curlin having to go all out in the Man O’ War and the Woodward chasing fast early splits has them thinking they’ll gun it and hope for the best. Take a look at the splits in the Woodward compared to the splits in Curlin’s victory in the Stephen Foster. In the Woodward, Past the Point and Wanderin Boy helped propel early splits of :46.2 and 1:09.6. In the Stephen Foster, Curlin only had to chase spits of :49.2 and 1:13.4. That’s a significant difference, and I’d expect things to be as hot up front as they can be depending on track conditions.
Ironically, this should still play into Curlin’s hands. I don’t think Robby Albarado is going to let them get too far away, and will send Curlin from as many as 5 furlongs out in an all-out drive if he has to. It could be wet out there, and I don’t think I need to remind anyone of what we saw from Curlin the last time things got sloppy. All he did was leave one of the most competitive Breeder’s Cup Classic fields ever assembled in his wake as he thundered home to claim Horse of the Year honors. Also note that he did that off of a 2007 Jockey Club Gold Cup performance that looks somewhat similar on paper to his effort in the 2008 Woodward. Might Curlin be sitting on a huge one? I think so.
Curlin powers through the slop at Monmouth to win the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic en route to winning Horse of the Year honors
So how to play the trifecta then? Well, when tracks get sloppy I tend to prefer runners up front that won’t be covered in filth or have mud being kicked into their face all the way around the track. This doesn’t apply to Curlin, since we’ve seen his mud-covered self winning in brilliant fashion before, but it does make me back off some of the bigger named runners in here including A.P. Arrow. I really like the looks of the Jerkins runner, Merchant Marine, being a surprise on the tote board at 12/1. I’ll likely include Wanderin Boy in that mix as well at 10/1. Obviously if these two duel it out, my ticket will likely implode. What I’ll be banking on is that one of these two gets a half length lead or more, and that the other sits down in second just off of him. I’ll use the up-and-coming Mambo in Seattle underneath for show to round out the ticket. I may wind up using A.P. Arrow if he makes a favorable impression in the post parade, but for now I’ll call it:
5/2,4/2,4,9 ($4)
Get ‘em, Curlin! It’s time to take your rightful place among the pantheon of all-time greats. Once more, back again – into the the breech. Will you yield, and this avoid? Or guilty in greatness be thus preserved? Yes, once again you’ve managed to bring out the Shakespeare in me. “A horse, a horse! My kingdom for a horse!” And so has it always been with you. Not just any horse, but King Curlin.
Stay tuned for my post on the rest of the undercard, as we’ve got an unprecedented 5 Grade 1 races at Belmont on Saturday – and then an equally impressive card at Oak Tree starting later in the afternoon. This is a big, big, day for racing – and only helps make the point for the “Take Back Saturday” initiative we pitched to the NTRA out in Vegas.
What a week it’s been! I’m officially back from Las Vegas after attending the NTRA Marketing Summit where members of the fan-based online task force I was a proud member of presented our 48 page report. The intent of the report was to assist in developing a strategic marketing plan to position the sport to new and emerging audiences.
Before I go any further, I’d like to take a brief moment to acknowledge the folks I’ve had the honor of working with over the last 6 weeks. It’s hard to believe we came up with this stuff in just 6 weeks time – and in our “spare time” at that as we all have day jobs and other responsibilities. I’ve only briefly mentioned some of these people before, so let me express my absolute thanks to the following people:
I’ve also got to give a major hat-tip to the wonderful folks over at SocialSphere Strategies, and in particular John Della Volpe and Jonathan Chavez. Let me just say that the word “brilliant” doesn’t begin to do these guys justice. If you ever get the chance to meet them, trust me – you’ll see what I mean. I should point out that Chavez was one of the lucky few who actually picked Da’ Tara on Belmont Day. See- I told you these guys were smart!
The week started off in rather humorous fashion. Having not met any of my teammates before, I decided I’d sport a baseball cap of my beloved Alabama Crimson Tide (“roll tide!”) during my flight to Vegas to help stick out like a sore thumb. After all, how many ‘Bama fans could there be in Vegas? Perhaps I should’ve looked at my flight itinerary a bit closer as I was unaware that I’d have a quick layover in Birmingham. The result of said layover was that I was now 1 of roughly 100 people departing my flight in Vegas in Crimson Tide gear. I can’t say I minded at all the volume of gratuitous “roll tide!!!!” shouts I got throughout the week while wearing the hat – whether in the casino or at the airport. It’s amazing what a resurgence to the top 10 rankings of the NCAA polls can do for a fan base that’s been waiting to thump it’s chest proudly for years.
I quickly met up with Patrick Patten of handride,who as you may know was the leader of our online task force and also serves as the leader of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance that I’m proudly affiliated with. After a quick scare with our luggage, it was off to the luxurious Red Rock Resort. Any fears we had of being perceived as “too young” or illegitimate were quickly diminished as our Somali-born cab driver proceeded to tell Patrick how “smart looking” he was. We took this as a good omen and hoped that others would fall under his sway while we were presenting our report to the NTRA (note: if this had failed, I was prepared to advise Patrick to use his Jedi mind-powers, wave his hand in front of our captive audience, and calmly mention “this IS the online task force report you’re looking for”).
The next few hours we spent participating in the kickoff handicapping tournament. I’ve got to toot my own horn here a bit so for those who abhor gratuitous horn tooting, you may wish to skip to the next paragraph. Patrick and I arrived with about 20 minutes until 1st post. The contest consisted of 10 races from Emerald, Arlington, Golden Gate, and Fairplex. You selected 1 horse in each of the 10 races, and had a theoretical $2 win/place wager on each of your horses. Whoever had the highest payout total at the end of the day was the winner. There were approximately 35 people participating, and I’m proud to say I came in 2nd place – defeated for top honors by a measly 20 cents! It was all great fun as I was able to pocket $250 in prize money for the 2nd place finish. I’d also like to think that in some small way it helped legitimize our online task force in the eyes of people who did not already know us.
My prize for 2nd place in the Handicapping Tournament
The rest of the evening was spent socializing with many of the other guests and NTRA Representatives. Keith Chamblin of the NTRA took us out to dinner and gave us our final pep talk, and then we retired to our rooms for one final practice run at our presentation. By now we were all incredibly nervous.
Tuesday morning arrived and we proceeded to the conference room where the meeting would be held. John Della Volpe and the folks from SocialSphere put on a great introduction, including a little video with some pictures and information about each one of the members from the online task force. After that – it was show time.
My credentials for the NTRA Marketing Summit
I’ll be honest, most of what we said on stage was a blank to me. I remember a good deal more about what my fellow task force members said than myself. I’m told that a podcast of our presentation will be available for those that wish to listen in. All I can say is that Patrick, Troy, Dana, and Jess all did a wonderful job. I was scanning the audience as they spoke and they seemed to have captured every-one’s attention quite well.
At the conclusion of our presentation the meeting adjourned for a 10 minute break, and we began to wonder how well it had been received. I wasn’t sure myself. A highly skeptical lad by nature, I found myself thinking of Lincoln’s famous “this speech won’t scour” line after he delivered the Gettysburg Address. Like Lincoln in November of 1863, I seem to have been quite wrong. Almost immediately there were people approaching us, connecting with us – folks who represented tracks from all over the country – sharing ideas and personal information/stories. It was quite remarkable. In fact, where I had anticipated we’d be met with a large dose of resistance, the opposite seemed true. Rather than being skeptical of our suggestions, the atmosphere permeating the meeting was one of acceptance and genuine interest. In short, these folks blew my mind, and I’d like to recognize a few of them individually.
Richard Eng was the first to approach me immediately after the presentation. Eng is the author of a book I highly recommend to any existing horseplayer, from novice to expert, called “Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies.”Don’t let the “for dummies” branding fool you – this guy set out on a noble adventure to try and explain some of the concepts of horse racing that new and prospective fans struggle with and/or are intimidated by. In the process he wound up putting together a useful resource that I keep prominently displayed on my shelf. I told him that the three books I consult the most are his, Davidowitz’ “Betting Thoroughbreds”, and “The One Minute Handicapper” by Frank DiTondo.
Next up I had the pleasure of talking with Jay Cipoletti of Point-Forward. Jay’s a younger guy with the heart of a visionary. He’s got a host of wonderful ideas – which I’d love to share here but am not certain if it would be proper (not wishing to steal anyone’s thunder) – so let’s just say we’re on the same page about the direction the sport needs to go. I also got to talk handicapping with him fairly in depth, and we’re kicking around the idea of doing a pick-6 syndicate to help offset the cost of such wagers. I’d bet with you anytime, Jay.
Two people that I was overjoyed to meet with were Carrie Everly, Vice President of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club, and Bill Moore, Track Manager for Delaware Park. After all, Laurel, Pimlico, and Delaware Park are 3 of my absolute favorite tracks that I feel a great sense of loyalty towards. I probably wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for them. These are folks I would do anything to help – and I’d expect nothing in return. Just two of the most genuinely nice individuals I’ve ever met. Being thousands of miles away from home, it brought a great deal of joy to my heart to meet these two who share a passion and love for my favorite locations. In fact, if there’s one take away item from this week I’d like to commit myself to – it’s to helping these guys nurture and grow their fan base and communities however I can.
Obviously this list is by no means exhaustive, and I could quite literally go on forever talking about the folks who made an impact on me. I got to speak with Susie Sourwine from Emerald Downs and communicate to her how everything I hear about them, even all the way over on the east coast, is 100% positive. There was also the delightful people from Churchill Downs. I’m sad to admit here that I somehow managed to leave the conference without their names. I had simply run out of business cards, and I haven’t been able to locate their information online (hopefully they read this, as I’d love to stay in contact with them). Suffice to say they had some tremendous ideas that seem consistent with the direction were were advocating in our report as far as making bigger stars of the trainers and jockeys is concerned.
By far though, the biggest surprise of the week – meeting and talking with Alex Waldrop of the NTRA. We talked about this after our discussions with him. I don’t know that their is one word that can sum it up for you. Patrick mentioned that phrases like genuine, legitimate, and authentic don’t even begin to do it justice. Folks, if you had one ounce of concern in your body that the folks running the show at the NTRA don’t have the best interest of the sport in mind (and I admit I was at one time largely skeptical myself) – all I can say is “wow!” Alex totally blew my mind. The man is absolutely committed to things like equine safety and the banning of steroids. He’s a visionary. I joked with him at the airport, where by trick of fate we happened to be entering the security line at the same time, that I’d vote for him in any political office he ever ran for regardless of his political party affiliation or platform. He had that kind of an impact on me.
To give you an idea of how honest and transparent he is – he’s challenged us to “hold their feet to the fire” and make them accountable for acting upon our suggestions. “Don’t just take our word for it that we’ll do it – hold us accountable.” That was his central theme to the members of the task force. He’s realistic, he knows we won’t be able to implement every idea, but he wants us to demand to be communicated with about the specifics regarding why certain ideas are moved forward and others aren’t. “Challenge us” he said over and over again – and he means it. It’s not just lip service when this guy speaks. In fact, he even talked specifically about lip service saying “talk is cheap – action is what matters.” I’m telling you folks, we (horse racing fans) are in good hands with this guy in command of the ship.
If you’re interested in reading more about how the conference went, there are articles available online at:
Our full report is available for download on the NTRA website by following this link (note: it will open up an adobe session in your browser in order to view the report):
Thanks again to everyone for your well wishes and concerns. I hope we represented you guys – the fans – well. It was the experience of a lifetime and one that I hope many of you will one day get to share as well. And of course, thanks again to the members of the online task force: Dana, Patrick, Jess, John & Bev, Alan, Norma Jean, Lisa, and Troy – it was tough work and we went through some rough spots together, but it was an absolute honor to work with folks as passionate and dedicated as you all.
God it’s good to be home! I missed all of you and I know the updates have been rather infrequent over the last 6 weeks since the task force was formed. They should be more frequent again here now that our duties with the online task force have come to a close (“…and there was much rejoicing”).
I’ll be back with another post tomorrow. Take a wild guess what it’ll be about? Hint – click here.
It’s just about time for me to head out to Vegas and the NTRA marketing meeting. I leave on Sunday and we should be presenting our ideas on Monday. One of the main themes I’ll be focusing on is the idea I’ve mentioned briefly in previous posts called “Take Back Saturday.” In short, it’s an idea for regularly scheduled Saturday programming telling a continuous, compelling story from the Triple Crown through the Breeder’s Cup. Accessibility and Relevance are key themes that I’ll be playing on. This Saturday is a prime example of what I’ll be talking about.
Take a look at how many relatively “big name” horses are running in various races around the country; Indian Blessing in the Gallant Bloom, Commentator in the Mass Cap, Proud Spell in the Cotillion, Macho Again in the Super Derby. While the names are familiar, mostly they are running in less well-known stakes races (not to take anything away from them – just saying they aren’t the most familiar). What would you tell a casual fan, or a coworker, or a family member that wasn’t familiar with horse racing about these races? Why do they matter? Why are they being run? Why should they care?
The answers to those questions are varied. Many are running in prep races for the annual Breeder’s Cup championship weekend in October at Santa Anita. Others are running just to keep in racing shape. Obviously they are all running for purse money. Still the central question remains – do these races matter?
Most likely only the most seasoned horse racing fans would answer with a resounding yes, and therein lies part of the problem. The central question we’ve been posed in the NTRA group is to figure out ways that horse racing can attract a new generation of fans. It goes without saying that there are larger concerns the sport must address beyond simply adding context to races like the Mass Cap and Super Derby if it wishes to resonate with a new generation. Nearly all existing fans of the sport are outspoken in their desire to see steroids and other drugs banned from the game. Every person I’ve spoken with desires better care of horses, both during their racing career and after.
We’ve been instructed that these issues are well known and essentially beyond the scope of the group’s objective. In other words, if we get up and simply say “ban drugs from the sport”, we’ll be met with a chorus of “okays” and “great, we’ll get right on that” – but the issues are larger than anything we can hope to solve as a handful of fans. I’m level setting a bit here because while these are some of the issues/concerns most near-and-dear to our hearts, they won’t be the focus of our presentation. Instead, we’ve focused on “actionable” ideas that can be implemented almost immediately – leaving some of the larger elephants in the room to be just that – elephants in the room.
All of this brings me back to context and the Take Back Saturday idea. While many of “us” understand the different paths that runners of various “divisions” take in their annual campaigns, to the casual fan or first time viewer, the picture must look as confusing as can be. Complicating matters is the fact that many such races are only available on channels like TVG and/or HRTV. Let me be clear – I’m a TVG junkie. There’s no channel that gets more continuous play on our family television (accept for when my 4-year-old demands to watch “Sprout”, of course). That being said, it’s a channel for fairly hardcore fans, I think we’d all agree. The idea with Take Back Saturday is to present a weekly program of marquee racing, on a nationally televised station like ESPN. The program would be focused a bit more on telling human/equine interest stories of the competitors involved. Coupled with the standings initiative some of my fellow attendees will be discussing, we’ll be able to more succinctly focus on “why” a particular race matters and is worth following. That’s the plan at least. It’s a bit more complicated than that, and there’s a host of other ideas we’ll be talking about, but that’s a bit of a teaser for now without letting the whole cat out of the bag.
As for Saturday’s races – Commentator is the Beyer speed figures in the Mass Cap. I liked Cuba on Monmouth Stakes day, but he appears outclassed here. I still expect him (Cuba) to hit he board though. Dr. Pleasure and Won Awesome Dude are logical underneath plays as well. I’ll go 2/3,4/3,4,6 ($4) in the Mass Cap.
In the Super Derby I’m going to take a shot with the fast improving Forest Command, a 3-year-old son of Monarchos out of Forest Secrets. I’ve got nothing against the favored Macho Again – after all he was the key to a rather lucrative Preakness trifecta along with Big Brown and Icabad Crane, but he turns in some clunkers along the way. If Macho Again shows up as the same horse he was in the Jim Dandy, this one’s academic. If he shows up as the horse we saw in the Travers, he might be had. I’ll take the slightly longer morning line odds on Forest Command (3/1) over Macho Again (5/2). Star Production, My Pal Charlie, and Mambo Meister are the others I like in here. Post parade will decide how I’ll ultimately play this one, but right now I see it as 10/3,7/2,3,4,7 ($6) in the Super Derby.
The Gallant Bloom and Fitz Dixon Cotillion appear to be mismatches. Proud Spell should romp in the Cotillion and Indian Blessing should crush the field in the Gallant Bloom – especially at the 6 1/2 furlong distance. I don’t believe trifecta wagering will be available in the Gallant Bloom as we’ve only got a field of 5 runners, but in the Cotillion I’d play By the Light and Seattle Smooth in place and toss in Never Retreat for show: 6/4,7/3,4,7 ($4)
Best of luck to everyone. I’ll try and get some messages through once we’re done in Vegas – and I’ll give you the full recap once I get back in town in the middle of next week.
Big Brown is definitely back. On Saturday the 3-year-old phenom showed his affinity for the turf by romping over a salty field of older runners in the $500,000 Monmouth Stakes – a race sponsored by his own barn (IEAH Stables) and specifically carded on the grass at 1 1/8 miles. The colt used the Monmouth Stakes as a final tune up for his attempt to capture the Breeders Cup Classic this October, and likely Horse of the Year honors. The Classic will be run over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita, and trainer Rick Dutrow, like many handicappers, seems to believe in the turf-to-synthetics angle which suggests that a horse that runs well on turf will fare similarly on synthetics. It’s not always the case, but it seems to be the case more often than not.
Breaking from the 4 hole in the Monmouth Stakes, Big Brown was expected to rate behind some of the early speed positioned just to his outside, including Get Serious and Fagedaboudit Sal. Instead, jockey Kent Desormeaux sent the colt right from the start of the race and took a commanding lead over the entire field. Big Brown can be seen tossing his head all over the place in the early going, but Desormeaux was able to get him to calm down and focus on the task at hand. For a bit it seemed that Get Serious would fight Big Brown for the lead, but Brownie kept about a 2 length lead on him before powering down a bit in the middle of the race to conserve some energy for the stretch run.
As the field neared the final turn, Big Brown seemed to be coming back to the pack, but it was all an illusion as Desormeaux knew he had more horse left in him and sent Big Brown gunning for the wire. As expected, some of the seasoned vets came running at him, including Shakis and Proudinksy. Proudinsky in particular was sent in an all out drive to catch Big Brown and looked like he may have had the colt in his sights with about a furling to go. Big Brown and Proudinksy locked horns in the final yards, but Proudinksy was never able to make up the final steps on Big Brown, who prevailed by a neck in 1:47.41.
This marked the second race in a row we’ve seen Big Brown defeat a serious challenger – and in to slightly different styles. In the Haskell he was all out to catch a speed-ball front runner. Here in the Monmouth Stakes, he was that front runner and turned back the challenges of his would be assailants. Proudinsky finished 2nd with Shakis in 3rd for a “captain obvious” trifecta that returned $11.
This was clearly Big Brown’s best effort since the Belmont Stakes earlier this year. We haven’t seen the son of Boundary move like this since his jaw-dropping runs in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. It’s good to see him back on his game as he’ll now head confidently into the Breeder’s Cup Classic. He also keeps up his amazing record of winning every race he finishes. With the exception of his pull-up in the Belmont, he’s never had a horse finish ahead of him.
I doubt we’ll get it, but it’s hard to talk about Big Brown and the Breeder’s Cup Classic without mentioning a potential showdown between Big Brown and Curlin. After the Monmouth Stakes, owner Michael Iavarone was quoted as saying “I can’t wait to run against Curlin. If he’s going to show up, he should show up in the Breeder’s Cup. That’s where we’re going to be.” Obviously this is just the latest in a series of barbs between the two camps – who at times have gone after each other in the press more than the Obama and McCain campaigns (luckily we haven’t had any lipstick comments yet). Obviously that’s the race that fans want to see. Before we get too carried away with how good Big Brown looked (and he did look sensational) – let’s just remember that Proudinksy and Shakis are not quite Red Rocks and Better Talk Now. I think that’s worth remembering. However, you can’t take anything away from Brownie today. He was everything his fans wanted to see and it looked like Monmouth got a pretty good turnout of folks there to see him. He certainly didn’t disappoint, and has to be considered the favorite at this point for the Breeder’s Cup Classic – which will be run October 25 at Santa Anita.
Big Brown, Big Brown, Big Brown. That’s probably all folks are expecting to hear when discussing how to play Saturday’s Monmouth card. The super-colt is entered in what appears to me to be a tailor-made turf prep race for his ultimate goal of the Breeder’s Cup Classic later this fall. His own stable, IEAH, is sponsoring the race for goodness sakes. Is it humanly (equinely) possible he could lose? I think so. As a self-described chalk-eater, this may surprise some, but I think you’ve got to take a stand against him if he comes up an overwhelming favorite.
First, a couple of thoughts. Big Brown looked great debuting on the turf as a 2-year-old before being shelved with the first of what would become reoccuring hoof problems. Today, however, he’ll be facing older horses for the first time, dealing with a surface switch, and also dealing with potential weather problems. Showers are in the forecast for Saturday and have to be included in the handicapping recipe. As I write this from beautiful south-central Pennsylvania, the sun has broken through a light cloud cover and has begun suggesting perhaps the day won’t be as wet as originally thought. The official forecast is calling for “a few showers early with cloud cover lingering.” In other words, it won’t be anything quite like Hurricane Ike’s invasion of the gulf coast (which has to be considered the biggest and most powerful amphibious invasion launched by an “Ike” since the Normandy Beach landings of June 6, 1944). The turf could be rated “good” by the time all is said and done though.
Look, Big Brown is obviously the star of the day – and it’s not like I’m going to advise playing against him on multi-race wagers. Don’t get knocked out by a horse that has won EVERY race he’s finished. That would be foolish. But, if you’re looking to catch a score in a trifecta or exacta play – perhaps at least consider using one of the challengers?
Speaking of the challengers, the top two you can choose from are Shakis (#3, 4/1) and Proudinsky (#6, 9/2). I tend to prefer Proudinsky here for several reasons. Most notably, I’m just not a Shakis guy and haven’t forgiven him yet for his defeat in the Dixie back on May 17. Plus, he’s 8-years-old and despite coming off a very solid victory in the Bernard Baruch last out, I wonder how successfully he can string together multiple victories these days? Playing into Shakis hands (hooves) is that the race does appear to have a decent amount of speed and he is a closing type that prefers having that in front of him.
Proudinsky may be a bit overlooked at the windows today. His last two races don’t appear to be the kind you support with a win wager going up against company like Big Brown and Shakis. What I like about him is that he was steadied early on last out in the Bernard Baruch, and still fought on to earn a 101 Beyer figure (Shakis earned a 105 in the victory, for comparisons sake). I also like his European breeding if the turf comes up anything short of firm. His last two efforts on less-than-firm turf have resulted in victory. If for some reason Big Brown were to go down in defeat today, I think this is your guy.
Looking over the rest of the field for horses to fill out a trifecta wager with, I like Kiss the Kid (#5, 8/1), Silver Tree (#11, 5/1), and Drum Major (#7, 6/1) enough to consider using them based on post parade impressions. As for now, I like them in the order just mentioned. My trifecta play will look like this:
6/3,4/3,4,5,7,11 ($8)
Of course, it goes without saying that my main play of the day will be a Pick 4. Here’s where I think folks can do the logical thing and single Big Brown. I didn’t, but it makes sense to do so. I felt honor bound to include Proudinsky just in case he pulls it off, but by tossing him I could theoretically cut the cost of this monster in half. I really like Cuba in the NJ Breeder’s Handicap. I hedged that bet a bit with Meadow Blue to go along with Cuba. I reached for some depth in the bookend races of the wager, not wanting to be knocked out right off the bat, and wanting to have a decent shot if I survive the first three legs.
Pick 4 (total cost = $48):
Race 7: 3,4,7
Race 8: 1,5
Race 9: 4,6
Race 10: 6,9,10,11
As always, be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches. Best of luck to everyone.
Big names aplenty on Saturday
19 09 2008It’s just about time for me to head out to Vegas and the NTRA marketing meeting. I leave on Sunday and we should be presenting our ideas on Monday. One of the main themes I’ll be focusing on is the idea I’ve mentioned briefly in previous posts called “Take Back Saturday.” In short, it’s an idea for regularly scheduled Saturday programming telling a continuous, compelling story from the Triple Crown through the Breeder’s Cup. Accessibility and Relevance are key themes that I’ll be playing on. This Saturday is a prime example of what I’ll be talking about.
Take a look at how many relatively “big name” horses are running in various races around the country; Indian Blessing in the Gallant Bloom, Commentator in the Mass Cap, Proud Spell in the Cotillion, Macho Again in the Super Derby. While the names are familiar, mostly they are running in less well-known stakes races (not to take anything away from them – just saying they aren’t the most familiar). What would you tell a casual fan, or a coworker, or a family member that wasn’t familiar with horse racing about these races? Why do they matter? Why are they being run? Why should they care?
The answers to those questions are varied. Many are running in prep races for the annual Breeder’s Cup championship weekend in October at Santa Anita. Others are running just to keep in racing shape. Obviously they are all running for purse money. Still the central question remains – do these races matter?
Most likely only the most seasoned horse racing fans would answer with a resounding yes, and therein lies part of the problem. The central question we’ve been posed in the NTRA group is to figure out ways that horse racing can attract a new generation of fans. It goes without saying that there are larger concerns the sport must address beyond simply adding context to races like the Mass Cap and Super Derby if it wishes to resonate with a new generation. Nearly all existing fans of the sport are outspoken in their desire to see steroids and other drugs banned from the game. Every person I’ve spoken with desires better care of horses, both during their racing career and after.
We’ve been instructed that these issues are well known and essentially beyond the scope of the group’s objective. In other words, if we get up and simply say “ban drugs from the sport”, we’ll be met with a chorus of “okays” and “great, we’ll get right on that” – but the issues are larger than anything we can hope to solve as a handful of fans. I’m level setting a bit here because while these are some of the issues/concerns most near-and-dear to our hearts, they won’t be the focus of our presentation. Instead, we’ve focused on “actionable” ideas that can be implemented almost immediately – leaving some of the larger elephants in the room to be just that – elephants in the room.
All of this brings me back to context and the Take Back Saturday idea. While many of “us” understand the different paths that runners of various “divisions” take in their annual campaigns, to the casual fan or first time viewer, the picture must look as confusing as can be. Complicating matters is the fact that many such races are only available on channels like TVG and/or HRTV. Let me be clear – I’m a TVG junkie. There’s no channel that gets more continuous play on our family television (accept for when my 4-year-old demands to watch “Sprout”, of course). That being said, it’s a channel for fairly hardcore fans, I think we’d all agree. The idea with Take Back Saturday is to present a weekly program of marquee racing, on a nationally televised station like ESPN. The program would be focused a bit more on telling human/equine interest stories of the competitors involved. Coupled with the standings initiative some of my fellow attendees will be discussing, we’ll be able to more succinctly focus on “why” a particular race matters and is worth following. That’s the plan at least. It’s a bit more complicated than that, and there’s a host of other ideas we’ll be talking about, but that’s a bit of a teaser for now without letting the whole cat out of the bag.
As for Saturday’s races – Commentator is the Beyer speed figures in the Mass Cap. I liked Cuba on Monmouth Stakes day, but he appears outclassed here. I still expect him (Cuba) to hit he board though. Dr. Pleasure and Won Awesome Dude are logical underneath plays as well. I’ll go 2/3,4/3,4,6 ($4) in the Mass Cap.
In the Super Derby I’m going to take a shot with the fast improving Forest Command, a 3-year-old son of Monarchos out of Forest Secrets. I’ve got nothing against the favored Macho Again – after all he was the key to a rather lucrative Preakness trifecta along with Big Brown and Icabad Crane, but he turns in some clunkers along the way. If Macho Again shows up as the same horse he was in the Jim Dandy, this one’s academic. If he shows up as the horse we saw in the Travers, he might be had. I’ll take the slightly longer morning line odds on Forest Command (3/1) over Macho Again (5/2). Star Production, My Pal Charlie, and Mambo Meister are the others I like in here. Post parade will decide how I’ll ultimately play this one, but right now I see it as 10/3,7/2,3,4,7 ($6) in the Super Derby.
The Gallant Bloom and Fitz Dixon Cotillion appear to be mismatches. Proud Spell should romp in the Cotillion and Indian Blessing should crush the field in the Gallant Bloom – especially at the 6 1/2 furlong distance. I don’t believe trifecta wagering will be available in the Gallant Bloom as we’ve only got a field of 5 runners, but in the Cotillion I’d play By the Light and Seattle Smooth in place and toss in Never Retreat for show: 6/4,7/3,4,7 ($4)
Best of luck to everyone. I’ll try and get some messages through once we’re done in Vegas – and I’ll give you the full recap once I get back in town in the middle of next week.
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Tags: Commentator, horse racing, Macho Again, news, NTRA marketing seminar, sports
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell