Oak Tree Saturday card a Breeder’s Cup preview

26 09 2008

Looking over the Oak Tree card for Saturday, it isn’t hard to tell that many horses are gearing up for their runs in the Breeder’s Cup championship races next month at Santa Anita.  Some HUGE names dot the card, such as Street Boss, Hystericalady, and of course the super-filly Zenyatta – who when all is said and done could be the sleeper pick for Horse of the Year honors. 

We’ve already taken a look at Curlin’s historic run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the equally exciting races that highlight the Belmont undercard, so now we’ll switch gears a bit and look at many of the Grade 1 races that highlight the Oak Tree card.

Race 5: The Lady’s Secret – Grade 1 – 1 1/16 Miles – $250,000

  1. Super Freaky – Doug O’Neil (M. Garcia) 15/1
  2. Wake Up Maggie – Julio Canini (Tyler Baze) 8/1
  3. Hystericalady – Jerry Hollendorfer (Garrett Gomez) 7/5
  4. Zenyatta – John Shirreffs(Michael Smith) 1/1*
  5. Santa Teresita – Eric Guillot (Michael Baze) 10/1

“She’s a super-freak, super-freak (she’s super freaky)…”

The 16th running of the Lady’s Secret is all about Zenyatta.  The amazing daughter of Street Cry goes for her 8th consecutive win and attempts to keep her perfect record in tact.  A small field of 4 other runners will contest her, with the most likely challenge coming from the classy Hystericalady on the front end. 

It’s possible Hystericalady could wire this field and put an end to Zenyatta’s glorious run of consecutive victories, but I still think Zenyatta gets her at the wire.  For those of you who are favorite-busters and abhor the taste of chalk, Hystericalady is the obvious choice as anyone else would be a jaw-dropping surprise.

Zenyatta’s an absolute freak of nature – and it’ll take the likes of a Curlin or a Big Brown to take her down – and even then it won’t be a foregone conclusion.  Indeed, “from her hair down to her (hoof) nails” - she’s as super-freaky as they come.  While she may not “need” the race, with her eligibility for the Breeder’s Cup already solidly confirmed, she’s the kind of competitor that always gives her best.  Plus, I still think we’ve yet to see her absolute best.  Freaky indeed.

Outside of these two, I thought Santa Teresita had the best shot of hitting the board, based largely on her performances in the Milady and Hawthorne Handicaps at Hollywood Park earlier in the year.

Selections: 4/3/5 ($1)

Race 6: The Ancient Title – Grade 1 – 6 Furlongs – $250,000

  1. Street Boss – Bruce Headley (David Flores) 9/5*
  2. Delta Storm – Mike Mitchell (Aaron Gryder) 15/1
  3. Decado – Patrick Gallagher (Alex Solis) 20/1
  4. Idiot Proof – Clifford Sise (Garrett Gomez) 4/1
  5. Sailors Sunset – Marcelo Polanco (Martin Pedroza) 12/1
  6. In Summation – Christopher Clement (Corey Nakatani) 3/1
  7. Esperamos – Wesley Ward (J.A. Garcia) 8/1
  8. Cost of Freedom – John Sadler (Tyler Baze) 5/1

The 24th running of the Ancient Title is highlighted by top California sprinter Street Boss – a horse I’ve been looking to single come Breeder’s Cup weekend for several months now.  A closing type, many will be worried a bit about the rail post position, but all one need do is watch the replay of Street Boss’s amazing run in the Bing Crosby Handicap on July 27 at Del Mar to alleviate those concerns.  Judging from that performance, this horse can do it all – and he should be fresh for Saturday’s rendition of the Ancient Title.

In Summation is the horse with the highest probability of pulling the upset, in my humble opinion.  Looking back at the Bing Crosby, you can make a case that despite Street Boss having to circle the field, that it was In Summation who had the tougher trip.  They were only separatedby 1 length at the wire, and it’s not hard to imagine Street Boss potentially encountering traffic problems today while In Summation explodes to the finish.  In other words, I’d cover this number in the exotic wagers today.

 

Street Boss circles the field while In Summation encounters a bit of trouble in the Bing Crosby Handicap – 7/27/08

 

Cost of Freedom and Idiot Proof look useful to me underneath.  Idiot Proof should be part of the pace and has a habit of sticking around and finishing in the exacta and/or trifecta.  Cost of Freedom is moving up in class big time today, but there’s hints that this 5-year-old son of Cee’s Tizzy has rounded into fine form since joining the John Sadler barn.  Note the sharp workouts and that sharp 110 Beyer figure last out. 

Selections: 1/4,6,8/4,5 6,8 ($9)

Race 9: The Yellow Ribbon – Grade 1 – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – $400,000

  1. High Heel Sneakers – B.D. Cecil (Victor Espinoza) 30/1
  2. Vacare – Christopher Clement (Cory Nakatani) 3/1
  3. I Can See – Steve Knapp (J. Rosario) 15/1
  4. Black Mamba – John Sadler (Garrett Gomez) 9/2
  5. Valbenny – Robert Frankel (Alex Solis) 10/1
  6. Solva – B.D. Cecil (Aaron Gryder) 6/1
  7. Gula Gold – Jerry Hollendorfer (Michael Baze) 30/1
  8. Marzelline – B.D. Cecil (Tyler Baze) 20/1
  9. Live Life – Leonard Powell (J. Couton) 20/1
  10. Wait a While – Todd Pletcher (J. Velazquez) 7/5*

The 32nd running of the Yellow Ribbon gives us a 10 horse field with several options to chose from. Wait a While looks like a deserving favorite to me.  She’s got 11 wins in 22 lifetime starts, and is near perfect over the Santa Anita turf.  The key with her will be how she handles the outside post draw.  She’s classy enough to overcome that positioning, as evidenced by her victory from the outside post in the 2006 edition of the Yellow Ribbon, but she does seem to bounce up-and-down on the Beyer scale, so perhaps this is a day to take a shot against her?

Black Mamba looks like a live competitor to me.  Her victories in the Mabee and Beverly Hills Handicaps looked better visually than they appear on paper, but clearly with her Beyer potential she ranks as a legitimate threat to Wait a While. Vacare is another classy runner that it’s hard to get a firm fixture on.  Wait a While was able to defeat her on the Saratoga turf when they met last summer, but she’s eligible to turn the tables if she gets a solid trip.

The early speed in this race doesn’t look too formidable for the off-the-pace types to overcome, and I’m expecting a thrilling finish here with as many as 4 horses having a real shot at reaching the winner’s circle.  As a longshot choice, consider tossing in the Steve Knapp runner I Can See.  I Can See has been literally”right there” with Black Mamba a couple of times in recent memory, and one gets the feeling that things may break her way at some point.  Still, you’d have to expect Wait a While and Black Mamba to have a better overall chance of winning. 

Valbenny and Solva are also horses that could be right there in the thick of things as the field turns for home, and both warrant consideration and closer inspection during the post parade.

Selections: 10/2,4/2,3,4,5,6 ($8)

Race 10: The Goodwood – Grade 1 – 1 1/8 Miles – $500,000

  1. Zappa – John Sadler (Jonathan Rosario) 8/1
  2. Tres Borrachos – Beau Greely (Tyler Baze) 20/1
  3. Informed – Doug O’Neil (M. Garcia) 30/1
  4. Surf Cat – Bruce Headley (David Flores) 6/1
  5. Slew’s Tiznow – Dough O’Neil (Alex Quinonez) 15/1
  6. Albertus Maximus – Vladimir Cerin (Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  7. Well Armed – Eoin Harty (Aaron Gryder) 3/1*
  8. Tiago – John Shirreffs(Michael Smith) 7/2
  9. Spirit One – Philippe Demercastel (I. Mendizabal) 10/1
  10. Mostacolli Mort – Julio Canini (Martin Pedroza) 12/1
  11. Mast Track – Robert Frankel (J. Velazquez) 9/2

The 27th running of the Goodwood is technically the “feature” race on the card, despite the presence of Street Boss and Zenyatta in earlier races, and offers a glimpse into how certain horses may handle the synthetic track during the upcoming Breeder’s Cup Classic.  At one point it was rumored that Curlin was possibly coming for the Goodwood.  While we don’t have a Curlin, per say, we do have a wide open field with numerous horses that could pull off the victory.

Well Armed will likely take most of the play at the windows as he has the kind of speed that could result in a gate-to-wire victory here.  I ended up siding with him in second place and took a shot on an x-factor horse for top honors, namely the turf sensation Spirit One, who scored an upset over Archipenko and others in the Arlington Million in early August.  If Spirt One’s turf form transfers to the synthetic track at Santa Anita – watch out, as we my just have another contender for the Classic on our hands.

Tiago is a horse I’ve historically used in my selections, and while I like how he’s training since his latest freshening, he hasn’t quite been the same over synthetics since his victory in last year’s Goodwood.  Well Armed will give him something to run at, but he might need this race as a prep for the Classic.

Surf Cat, Zappa, and Mast Track are all runners I’d also consider using in some fashion – as anyone could find the board.

Selections: 9/7,11/4,7,8,11 ($6)

Best of luck to all and as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita, Street Boss, Zenyatta

Belmont undercard easy to get excited about

26 09 2008

We’ve already covered Curlin’s quest for all-time glory at Belmont Park on Saturday in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – but let’s not forget about the other Grade 1 races in the Pick 4 sequence.  Starting in race 7 with the Flower Bowl Invitational, the sequence proceeds to include the Vosburgh, the Joe Hirsch Classic Invitational, and of course the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Let’s take a closer look at each on a race by race basis.

Race 7: The Flower Bell Invitational – Grade 1 – 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) – $600,000

  1. Palmilla – Jonathan Sheppard (Edgar Prado) 8/1
  2. Communique – George Arnold (Javier Castellano) 4/1
  3. Dynaforce – Bill Mott (Alan Garcia) 7/2
  4. Mauralakana – Christopher Clement (Kent Desormeaux) 1/1*
  5. Jade Queen – Todd Pletcher (Rafael Bejarano) 15/1
  6. Hostess – Harold Bond (Richard Maragh) 6/1

The 31st running of the Flower Bell features a 6 horse field going 1 1/4 miles over the inner turf track at Belmont Park. Mauralakana is the standout even money favorite on the morning line, and for good reason.  The 5-year-old Christopher Clement trainee has won 4 consecutive races, and has defeated most of today’s more serious rivals, including Hostess, Dynaforce, and Communique. 

The likely lone speed of the race is 15/1 longshot Jade Queen – whose career best Beyer figure (102) came at this distance back on 10/7/06 at Belmont.  Jade Queen has had trouble holding on for victories (she hasn’t won since August of 2006), but has managed to find the exacta in 2 of her last 6 tries, and the trifecta in 4 of her last 6.  I think you’ve got to use her then as lone speed at 15/1.

Dynaforce is probably the only real threat to Mauralakana in this one, although Hostess does own the last victory over Mauralakana.  I’ll play the favorite on top with Dynaforce and Jade Queen underneath for place. I’ll toss in Hostess for show to round out the ticket.

Selections: 4/3,5/3,5,6 (4)

Race 8: The Vosburgh – Grade 1 – 6 Furlongs – $400,000

  1. Fabulous Strike – Todd Beattie (Ramon Dominguez) 5/2
  2. J Be K – Steve Asmussen (Rafael Bejerano) 8/1
  3. Lucky Island – Kiaran McLaughlin (Alan Garcia) 2/1*
  4. First Defence – Robert Frankel (C. Hill) 4/1
  5. Kodiak Kowboy – Larry Jones (Gabriel Saez) 10/1
  6. Rockerfeller – Martin Wolfson (Eddie Castro) 6/1
  7. Black Seventeen – Brian Koriner (Clinton Potts) 12/1

The 69th running of the Vosburgh features seven horses going 6 furlongs over the main dirt track.  Right off the bat you can tell there’s plenty of speed in here, both to the inside and the outside.  Fabulous Strike is a fine runner breaking from the rail – but he’s going to have to go full speed every step of the way to prevail here.  The son of Smart Strike will be hard pressed by the runner to his immediate outside, J Be K, and the runner on the extreme outside, Black Seventeen. 

This should set things up nicely for an off-the-pace type, and there are several lively challengers that fit that profile.  Lucky Island was undefeated in 4 races so far this year before stumbling at the break as the post time favorite in the Grade 1 Forego on August 30.  That stumble took him out of the race and set things up for another of today’s off-the-pace rivals in First Defence.  I still feel Lucky Island is the better of the two and would expect him to turn the tables on First Defence today.  Still, I think you’ve got to include First Defence on any multi race exotic wagers such as the Pick 4.  Likewise, I wouldn’t count out Rockerfeller either.  The 4-year-old son of Maria’s Mon hasn’t faced Grade1 competition before, but he classed up rather well only being beaten by 3 lengths to the great sprinter Benny the Bull two races back.  That hints at this horse having legitimate talent, and he’ll likely be forgotten a bit at the windows in favor of those with more class on paper.  Just remember, outside of perhaps Street Boss, it doesn’t get any classier in a sprint than Benny the Bull.

I’d love to use Fabulous Strike, but with the abundance of speed I can really only see him hanging on for place, or more likely show.  I’ll use the favorite Lucky Island on top, toss in First Defence and Rockerfeller for place, and give Fabulous Strike and longshot Kodiak Kowboy a chance to hit the board for show.

Selections: 3/4,6/1,4,5,6 ($6)

Race 9: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational – Grade 1 – 1 1/2 miles (Turf) – $600,000

  1. Interpatation – Robert Barbara (Kent Desormeaux) 20/1
  2. Elusive Fort – Raja Malek (Robby Albarado) 20/1
  3. Dancing Forever – Claude McGaughey (Rene Douglass) 5/2*
  4. Proudinsky – Robert Frankel (Ramon Dominguez) 3/1
  5. Summer Patriot – Barclay Tagg (Eibar Coa) 8/1
  6. Grand Couturier – Robert Ribaudo (Alan Garcia) 7/2
  7. Strike a Deal – Alan Goldberg (Javier Castellano) 6/1
  8. Presious Passion – Mary Hartmann (Eddie Castro) 10/1
  9. Jade’s Revenge – Graham Motion (Edgar Prado) 15/1

The 32nd running of the Joe Hirsch features a field of 9 runners going a grueling 1 1/2 miles over the turf for a total purse of $600,000.  There are some familiar names here, including Proudinksy – who we recently saw finishing a game 2nd to Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes.  There’s also Grand Couturier, winner of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer against Better Talk Now, and who also finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind Curlin and Red Rocks in the Man O’ War. 

From a pace standpoint, the outside horses, Strike a Deal, Presious Passion, and Jade’s Revenge could be involved together early on.  To be honest though, I see Presious Passion getting a clear lead and taking this group around the track at a moderate pace.  Strike a Deal is his likely challenger, although I suspect he’ll prefer to rate today considering the added ground he’s up against for the first time.  Jade’s Revenge could be sent from the outside, but I’m guessing he’ll duck in and try to save some ground as he’s an outsider on paper. 

The three horses I think will be right there with a chance to make a move turning for home are Grand Couturier (hard to argue with 4 wins at the 1 1/2 mile distance),  Dancing Forever (who Shug McGauhey out to have back in the form that earned him favoritism in the Sword Dancer), and Summer Patriot (a longshot who is on the improve).  I think any one of these guys can get it done.

Since I’m no where near as good a turf handicapper as I am a dirt handicapper (one must be conscious of their limitations in this game), I’ll spread the wealth on my pick 4 ticket and cover all of the above.  I’ll throw Proudinksy in there as well as I feel that Big Brown may be an even better turf horse than he is on dirt, and Proudinsky was right there with him in the Monmouth Stakes.

Selections: 6/3,5/3,4,5,8 ($6)

The play of the day will be the Pick 4 ticket, centered around Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. 

Pick 4:  3,5/1,3,4,6/3,4,5,6/5 ($32)

Best of luck to all – and be sure to check for late scratches and changes as you never know what’ll happen out there with the wet stuff coming down.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Handicapping Selections

Curlin goes for record in the Jockey Club Gold Cup

26 09 2008
Curlin

2007 Horse of the Year: Curlin

All eyes in the world of thoroughbred horse racing will be firmly fixed on defending 2007 Horse of the Year winner Curlin as he goes for history this Saturday in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.  If he can pull out another victory, the talented son of Smart Strike will pass the legendary Cigar on the all-time earnings list for North American thoroughbreds, and pass the $10,000,000 threshold. 

As many of you know who read this blog frequently, I consider myself one of (if not THE) biggest Curlin fan in the world.  From the moment I first saw him I knew he’d be the type of horse to make history, and if all goes to plan this Saturday he will add to his growing legacy.  The elephant in the room will continue to be the possible showdown with Big Brown (and perhaps Zenyatta? more on that later) in the Breeder’s Cup Classic next month at Santa Anita.  For now though, much like a top ranked collegiate football team progressing through it’s schedule of games (no offense to USC fans), I’d prefer to take it one race at a time.  Let’s get the Gold Cup victory and then we’ll start thinking about next steps. 

Curlin exits a surprisingly competitive rendition of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes on August 30 at Saratoga, which depending on how you look at it either should help him get into top form or offers a hint that perhaps it’s possible to defeat him – even on dirt.  No doubt the other 8 horses competing against him in the Gold Cup will hope it’s the latter.  Me, I’ll be banking on the former.  No surprise there, huh?

The field for the Jockey Club Gold Cup:

  1. Ravel – Todd Pletcher (Rafael Bejarano) 30/1
  2. Merchant Marine – Allen Jerkens (Cornelio Velasquez) 12/1
  3. Timber Reserve – John Kimmel (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1
  4. Wanderin Boy – Nick Zito (Alan Garcia) 10/1
  5. Curlin – Steve Asmussen (Robby Albarado) 3/5*
  6. Angliana – Gary Contessa (Richard Maragh) 10/1
  7. A.P. Arrow – Todd Pletcher (Ramon Dominguez) 20/1
  8. Stones River – Larry Jones (Gabriel Saez) 20/1
  9. Mambo in Seattle – Neil Howard (Edgar Prado) 7/2

Conventional wisdom says that the most likely challenger to Curlin will be Mambo in Seattle – who we last saw getting nosed out by Colonel John in the Travers at Saratoga on 8/23.   I think it goes without saying that Colonel John and Pyro (the other in-the-money finishers from the Travers) are not quite of Curlin’s caliber.  Still, Mambo in Seattle has improved nicely in each of the last three races.  He’s going to need to move forward once again if he’s to threaten an upset over the defending 2007 Horse of the Year. 

 

Mambo in Seattle loses a heart breaker to Colonel John in the 2008 Travers Stakes at Saratoga

 

Looking at the pace setup of this race, I think we’ve got two horses who could battle it out for the early the lead.  Both Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine have shown desires to go for the front early on, and I’ve got to think that in their trainer’s minds the vision of Curlin having to go all out in the Man O’ War and the Woodward chasing fast early splits has them thinking they’ll gun it and hope for the best.  Take a look at the splits in the Woodward compared to the splits in Curlin’s victory in the Stephen Foster.  In the Woodward, Past the Point and Wanderin Boy helped propel early splits of :46.2 and 1:09.6.  In the Stephen Foster, Curlin only had to chase spits of :49.2 and 1:13.4.  That’s a significant difference, and I’d expect things to be as hot up front as they can be depending on track conditions.

Ironically, this should still play into Curlin’s hands.  I don’t think Robby Albarado is going to let them get too far away, and will send Curlin from as many as 5 furlongs out in an all-out drive if he has to.  It could be wet out there, and I don’t think I need to remind anyone of what we saw from Curlin the last time things got sloppy.  All he did was leave one of the most competitive Breeder’s Cup Classic fields ever assembled in his wake as he thundered home to claim Horse of the Year honors.  Also note that he did that off of a 2007 Jockey Club Gold Cup performance that looks somewhat similar on paper to his effort in the 2008 Woodward.  Might Curlin be sitting on a huge one?  I think so.

 

Curlin powers through the slop at Monmouth to win the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Classic en route to winning Horse of the Year honors

 

So how to play the trifecta then?  Well, when tracks get sloppy I tend to prefer runners up front that won’t be covered in filth or have mud being kicked into their face all the way around the track.  This doesn’t apply to Curlin, since we’ve seen his mud-covered self winning in brilliant fashion before, but it does make me back off some of the bigger named runners in here including A.P. Arrow.  I really like the looks of the Jerkins runner, Merchant Marine, being a surprise on the tote board at 12/1.  I’ll likely include Wanderin Boy in that mix as well at 10/1.  Obviously if these two duel it out, my ticket will likely implode.  What I’ll be banking on is that one of these two gets a half length lead or more, and that the other sits down in second just off of him.  I’ll use the up-and-coming Mambo in Seattle underneath for show to round out the ticket.  I may wind up using A.P. Arrow if he makes a favorable impression in the post parade, but for now I’ll call it:

5/2,4/2,4,9 ($4)

Get ‘em, Curlin!  It’s time to take your rightful place among the pantheon of all-time greats.  Once more, back again – into the the breech.  Will you yield, and this avoid?  Or guilty in greatness be thus preserved?  Yes, once again you’ve managed to bring out the Shakespeare in me.  “A horse, a horse!  My kingdom for a horse!”  And so has it always been with you.  Not just any horse, but King Curlin.

Stay tuned for my post on the rest of the undercard, as we’ve got an unprecedented 5 Grade 1 races at Belmont on Saturday – and then an equally impressive card at Oak Tree starting later in the afternoon.  This is a big, big, day for racing – and only helps make the point for the “Take Back Saturday” initiative we pitched to the NTRA out in Vegas.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Curlin, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News


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