So now that we’ve had a few days to let everything settle, we’ve got a bit of a debate on our hands. No, I’m not talking about certain reader’s disdain for the synthetic surfaces of California. We’re talking about the “big question” – the one that keeps popping up everywhere from TVG to the Daily Racing Form, and even to Facebook and Youtube.
Will Zenyatta upset Curlin at the ballot box and earn Horse of the Year?
I find it rather fitting that in the same year as a hotly contested presidential election, thoroughbred horse racing has it’s own “vote”, and indeed it’s own “debate” and “campaign.” I’ve been back and forth over this issue several times in my mind. Not at all unlike the mysterious “undecided” voters we hear so much about on the nightly news. I’ll tell you that my initial reaction on Saturday was that hands down, Zenyatta should be Horse of the Year. However, having thought about it a bit more, I’m not so sure the champ can be taken down so easy.
Zenyatta is a masterpiece – there’s no denying that. Some would say she’s a California star, or a synthetics ace, but to say so patronizes and cheapens her abilities and accomplishments. She’s shown she has the class to travel east (namely to Oaklawn in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 5) and defeat the likes of Ginger Punch over regular dirt. She’s more than those things and may be the best filly we’ve seen in years. Best of all, she’ll reportedly be back for a 5-year-old campaign!
Zenyatta runs away with the Apple Blossom on true dirt at Oaklawn Park. If she wins Horse of the Year, I think it’s this race that puts her over the top, perhaps even more so than her effort in the Ladies’ Classic.
Clearly she defies those who wish to define her by such limited terms. She’s thrashed competition in all 9 of her lifetime starts, including her grand moment in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (formerly known as the Distaff) last Friday in what was her first appearance on national television (a tragedy in and of it’s own that national audiences were only seeing her for the first time – don’t even get me started…”Take Back Saturday” anyone???).
There are, however, some chinks in the armor. Not from a single race perspective, but from the perspective of assigning top honors to one thoroughbred above all others for the year. Let’s start with the obvious. Trainer John Shirreffs had a chance to enter the 4-year-old daughter of Street Cry in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but opted to pass and wanted no part of Curlin and the others running on Saturday. While this may have been a “safe” move, it unfortunately may have denied us our one golden opportunity to see the two best horses in the U.S. race head to head (no offense to Big Brown, of course). Had Shirreffs entered Zenyatta in the Classic, this whole argument would likely be settled. Instead we watched the undeniable best filly in the nation destroy a talented yet limited field in the Ladies’ Classic (only 7 others took her on). She also accomplished this in her own “backyard” at California – something voters may hold against her come January.
There’s also the matter that Curlin has travelled consistently all over the country, and indeed the globe, asserting his dominance over his division on a global scale. While Zenyatta did win an edition of the Ladies’ Classic on a highly international Breeders’ Cup weekend, the Ladies’ Classic itself was not an international affair. There was no Zarkava, not to mention a Goldikova, or a Raven’s Pass. Curlin hasn’t exactly been facing monsters lately either (with all due respect to Wanderin Boy), but he’s gone wherever he can to find competition, including the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita that he didn’t seem to enjoy, and the tricky voyage to and from Dubai, where so many other horses have seen their careers head inexplicably southward.
Lastly, there’s the issue of Beyer figures. Look, I respect Andy Beyer immensely. I’d do about anything for the chance to talk horse racing with the guy all day long. That being said, I’m not a guy who goes crazy (at least I try not to be “that guy” or “that handicapper”) using his speed figures as a handicapping crutch. I do, however, recognize their importance for comparing previous efforts and seeing how horses in a given field “stack up” against one another. After all, isn’t that really what we’re doing with Curlin and Zenyatta come Eclipse Award evening? In other words, I think they are worth bringing into the discussion, even if you aren’t a player that puts a lot of faith in them.
Zenyatta, for all her freakishness on the track, doesn’t win with mind boggling Beyer figures. In fact, her career best figure of 108 (earned in both the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret and the Grade 2 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap) is only 3 points higher than the absolute worst that Curlin has put up (105 in the 2007 Haskell).
For more recent comparison’s sake (not to mention using the same track as a measuring stick), Curlin posted a 106 Beyer figure for his run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday. A run that by Curlin’s standards appeared flat and one of the worst in his career. He had the heart and guts to get his nose in front at the top of the stretch, but he couldn’t sustain his drive and for the first time we saw rivals passing the amazing chestnut son of Smart Strike. Zenyatta, for all her magnificence, earned a 103 in the Ladies’ Classic. Another way of looking at this is to suggest that Curlin’s floor is capable of besting or being right their with Zenyatta’s ceiling. That’s pretty amazing when you think about it.
Of course, to suggest these and any other speed figures are apples to apples is to be a bit narcissistic, but this does lend itself to the prevailing question. Who would win between these two horses in a head-on battle? For the record, my money would depend on the surface. I’d give it to Zenyatta if we were talking about Santa Anita or another of the synthetic tracks. I’d give it to Curlin if we were talking about a true dirt track.
Curlin’s fans can rest comfortably for the moment knowing that some decisions are still being made. Where I had originally assumed the colt would be retired after his effort in the Classic, the first in which he failed to hit the board, that may not be the case. Trainer Steve Asmussen has been adamant that no decisions have been made yet.
Possibilities for Curlin would include the Grade 2 Clark Handicap on 11/28 at Churchill Downs, and the Japan Dirt Cup on 12/6 at Hanshin Racecourse. Then, of course, there is always the option he could take his skill to the barn and begin a well earned stud career.
So what say you? Don’t feel absolutely wed to your initial reactions. I’ve already examined mine and come to the conclusion that this issue merits some additional consideration before rushing to any judgement. Have you reached a decision on which horse should be Horse of the Year? If so, how much could the events of the Clark and/or Japan Dirt Cup further influence those decisions?
Edit: Perhaps we should take Handride’s approach and urge folks with an actual vote to support “Zen…rlin.”
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