THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Finally, the weekend hath arrived!  The highlight of this early October weekend for yours truly will be the Maryland Million card tomorrow (Saturday) at Laurel Park.  Twelve races, each of them competitive in their own right, showcase the best that Maryland has to offer outside of the more famous Preakness, Pimlico Special, and Black Eyed Susan races in May.  Upon returning from the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, I decided it was high time I give my local tracks some additional coverage - as they were so crucial in my formative years as a budding horseplayer.  This Saturday is the perfect opportunity to focus some attention on Laurel Park, and I strongly encourage players from all over the country to consider joining in and playing along.  With that statement out of the way, let’s take a look at each race.  What follows are my initial thoughts - and it goes without saying they are subject to change and further scrutiny (especially with respect to the post parades).

Race 1: The Maryland Million Starter Handicap ($50,000) - 1 1/8 Miles

• #10 Morethanclever (6/5*)
• #4 Let Me Be Frank (4/1)
• #5 Belle’s Broker (5/1)

Let Me Be Frank will have a chance to wire the field in the opener if all goes well, and if he makes a decent appearance on the track could be the win play at the windows.  To prevail he’ll have to hold off the classiest horse of the field, Morethanclever, who has been running well against significantly better horses and picks up the services of recently maligned jockey Jeremy Rose.  There are several horses that could be moving well in the stretch late, including Belle’s Broker,  Rooteen Hero,  Rubi Echo, and the back class play Off the Glass.  I’ll probably try and beat the favorite in the opener with the early speed, although Morethanclever does look formidable here and should get a clean trip breaking from the outside.

Trifecta Selections:  4/2,10/2,5,7,8,10 ($

Race 2: The Maryland  Million Sprint Handicap ($150,000) - 6 Furlongs

• #2 Jazz Seeker (10/1)
• #6 Grand Champion (6/5*)
• #4 Lemons of Love (8/5)

On paper and from a quick look at the odds, this race appears to be a two horse race between last year’s winner Grand Champion and the always game Lemons of Love.  In the infamous words of ESPN College Football analyst Lee Corso:  “not so fast, my friends!”  I think that Jazz Seeker has a chance to get out in front here, and at 10/1 and coming off back-to-back close victories (by a nose and a neck, respectively)is worth a long look in the post parade as a potential win candidate.  Grand Champion is the obvious favorite, but the last time he exited a similar layoff (in March of 2008), he turned in his worst race in over 2 years.  Granted, that was against a monster of a horse in Commentator, but still, if you’re looking for chinks in the armor of a 6/5 longshot, you’ve got to be willing to accept such angles.   Grand Champion should get an excellent stalking trip and has every reason to run down Jazz Seeker in the stretch with his superior class.  Lemons of Love is usually right there and has finished as little as a head behind Grand Champion in the past.  I’m not sure the inside horse, Broadway Producer, will run in this race as he’s the likely favorite later on in the card in the Maryland Million Turf (race 4).  That would leave just two other runners, and of them I’d tend to prefer Celtic Innis over Rubi Echo as he’s more accomplished at the 6 furlong distance.

Trifecta Selections: 2/4,6/3,4,6 ($4)

Race 3: The Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap ($50,000) - 1 Mile

• #6 Auntie Millie (7/2)
• #12 Doolittle (8/1)
• #7 All Attitude (3/1*)

This race is absolutely wide open with no standout favorite, as evidenced by the less-than-solid 3/1 morning line favoritism on All Attitude.  Figuring out how this group will handle the 1 mile distance is a tricky proposition.  The favorite didn’t come up in my top 2, but I wouldn’t advocate leaving All Attitude off any multi-race exotic wagers either. Really there are several more directions you could logically go, with #8 Heart Striker, #13 Star Mom, and #5 Kenaharra having some playable angles as well.  In the end I sided with jockey Gabriel Saez and Auntie Millie at 7/2.  This horse has been up and down on the Beyer scale jumping all over from a class standpoint, and hopefully a solid jockey like Saez can get the best of her. What I really like is that she’s used to going this distance on the grass, and while he was beaten by 4 lengths in her initial dirt mile attempt.  I think she can improve off that.  Doolittle is a horse I think you’ve got to use in the trifecta as she seems to hit the board lately. She’s probably a better turf sprinter than dirt miler, but she does pick up Jeremy Rose and trainer Hamilton Smith hasn’t made many wrong moves so far this meet. 

Trifecta Selections: 6/7,12/5,7,8,12,13 ($

Race 4: The Maryland Million Turf ($200,000) - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

• #1 Broadway Producer (8/5*)
• #3 Into the WInd (12/1)
• #4 Dr. Rico (9/5)

The Maryland Million Turf is an interesting race that could break several ways. As noted before, Broadway Producer is entered in race #2 as well, but this is the likely spot he’ll actually run.  He makes an appealing favorite with a nice late kick on the grass that has earned him Beyer figures in excess of 85 in his last 5 trips over the lawn.  I would not sell Into the Wind too long at odds of 12/1 as I think this one has a right to be there as part of the pack moving well late.  Jockey Julian Pimentel has ridden this son of Partner’s Hero well before and you have to go all the way back to the first race showing on his past performances in the Daily Racing Form to find a race he really didn’t show up for.   Dr. Rico will obviously take a lot of play with that last race Beyer of 91.  All of these three will be depended upon some decent early splits for a turf route race, but they should be set up well by Gammy’s a Winner and Hound. 

Trifecta Selections: 1/3,4/1,2,3,4,5  ($

Race 5: The Maryland Million Nursery ($150,000) - 7 Furlongs

• #8 Mr. Keeper (2/1)
• #3 Juke Joint (8/5*)
• #9 Callmemisterlouis (8/1)

If you love 2-year-olds, this race is for you.  The favorite is #3 Juke Joint, who has demolished the two fields he’s faced thus far in impressive fashion - and they weren’t slouches, we’re talking Maiden Special Weight $48k runners, and a state-bred stakes group.  Note the comments in the running lines:  “lightly roused” and “impressive, handily” - you know you’ve got a runner here.  The only thing is, there may be others that try to go with him early on and test him.  He’s run against comparatively small fields in those two races (5 and 6 horses, respectively), and with a full field of 11 runners today, anything can happen.  Mr. Keeper is the horse I’ll use for the slight upset most likely.  I think he could sit behind Juke Joint and whomever decides to tangle with him and look to make one move turning for home.  He’s only one horse away from being a perfect 3 for 3 and like Juke Joint has been facing decent foes for this level.  Callmemisterlouis could be the forgotten man here, but note that he was favorite in his debut, but then lost the rider after moving out.  He’s one of what seems to be 10,000 sons of Lion Hearted on the card today, and I’m curious to see how he looks in the post parade. Stone in Love is a bit interesting as well, though a shade below the previously mentioned rivals in my opinion.  You also get a whopping 3 horses if you work the Robb John coupled contingent of Crafty Lion, In the Juice, and Great Love into your play.  It’s always worth considering playing 3 horses when you’re getting them at 12/1, right? 

Trifecta Selections: 8/3,9/1,3,6,9 ($6)

Race 6: The Maryland Million Turf Sprint Handicap ($100,000) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Turf

• #7 Natural Seven (3/5*)
• #4 Kosmo’s Buddy (9/2)
• #5 Lycurgus (6/1)

I’m fairly “Captain Obvious” here siding with the 3/5 favorite in Natural Seven.  It’s hard not to like a horse that has reached the 100 Beyer level in a field like this. Consider that the horse just to his inside (#4 Six String) is exiting a pair of races where he earned Beyer figures in the 40’s.  Yeah, it’s that kind of race.  Kosmo’s Buddy could make it interesting if the favorite doesn’t show up. He’s got some speed and he’s also rated a bit before as well. Of course, the same can be said for Natural Seven, which makes this appear to be a two horse race.  The thing is - I’m sure you guys know how that usually tends to wind up - someone coming through the stretch late at long odds that makes people scream, curse, and stomp their feet.  I’m guessing that might be Lycurgus from the 5 hole.  I like what he’s done at Laurel and this distance and that last bullet blowout on 9/20 tells me he’s ready to roll.  I’ll likely be standing on the two “obvious” choices in my pick 4, but if you’re looking to beat the favorites that’d be my play. 

Trifecta Selections: 7/4,5/1,2,4,5 ($6)

Race 7:  The Maryland Million Ladies ($200,000) - 1 1/8 Miles - Turf

• #10 Maddy’s Heart (3/1*)
• #2 Debbie Sue (9/2)
• #3 Absolute Heaven (7/2)

It seems like every turf race I handicap seems more “wide open” than the dirt races.  I’m probably just a crappy turf handicapper, but I digress.  The favorite Maddy’s Heart hasn’t won since last October, although that was in this very race.  She is vulnerable, although she has been running against Dreaming of Anna and Rutherienne - two horses I think would each be favored over this field if they were here today.  In actuality, 3/1 isn’t a half bad price on her, but she’s a far thing from being a “lock.”  Debbie Sue looks very interesting to me and I could see this one running big through the stretch late.  Absolute Heaven will be more forwardly placed than Debbie Sue and should be very close to Maddy’s Heart as they enter the stretch.  Another I wouldn’t totally count out of this is Miss Lombardi breaking from the 11 hole.

Trifecta Selections: 10/2,3,11/2,3,4,11 ($9)

Race 8: The Maryland Million Lassie ($150,000) - 7 Furlongs

• #7 Blind Date (5/1)
• #3 Miss Charm City (4/1)
• #9 Fools In Love (5/2*)

Back to the dirt track we go in race 8.  This is an exceptionally tough race to decipher.  Miss Charm City is coming off back-to-back impressive wins to begin her career.  The question for her (and indeed all of these runners) is how she will handle the tricky 7 furlong distance.  Fools in Love is the favorite at 5/1 based off three solid efforts so far.  I thought Blind Date was a logical candidate to pull of the upset here.  She should have an easier trip relaxing early on, and there seems to be some speed to run at here.  Note that she was bumped in her debut, so that 74 Beyer could’ve wound up somewhat higher without that trip trouble.  Of course ,the same could be said for the 73 Beyer figure that Fools In Love earned last out, so just keep that in mind.  Onearmedbandit and You Rock also look like factors in here.

Trifecta Selections: 7/3,9/3,8,9,10 ($6)

Race 9: The Maryland Million Oaks ($150,000) - 1 Mile

• #4 Saxet Heights (4/1)
• #2 Sweet Goodbye (5/2*)
• #8 Heavenly Moon (6/1)

There’s a decent field here of 9 horses for the 23rd running of the Maryland Oaks.  Most will figure this to be a two horse race between Saxet Heights and Sweet Goodbye.  Saxet Heights is 5 for 5 to start her career and has a habit of gunning other runners down in the stretch.  She’ll need her best to gun down Sweet Goodbye, who should be more forwardly placed and will likely get first jump on the pace set by either Church Bells, Love Co, or some combination thereof.  Obviously if we’re talking a dirt route (1 mile) than whoever gets the lead is a serious candidate to hit the board.  Still, I sided with the somewhat versatile Heavenly Moon for third selection.  This horse just always seems to be there and would appear to be in solid form.  I’m not sure we can totally dismiss Love for Not either in this one.

Trifecta Selections: 4/2,8/2,3,8,9 ($6)

Race 10: The Maryland Million Distaff Handicap ($150,000) - 7 Furlongs

• #4 Spectacular Malibu (5/1)
• #9 Lexi Star (4/1)
• #8 Fancy Diamond (3/1*)

We’ve got another good one in the Maryland Million Distaff Handicap.  Really, any of these 3 horses could win, and I’d add Jet Away Jane to that mix of possibilities as well.  Fancy Diamond will likely look to wire the field with Jeremy Rose aboard.  These two got to know each other in her impressive 15 3/4 length debut victory last February here at Laurel.  She’ll have to get the full 7 furlongs today, and that might be an angle to consider playing against her if you wish to beat the favorite.  Spectacular Malibu gives you a proven runner at the 7 furlong distance at odds of 5/1.  She’s also run well at the mile distance over the synthetics, so the distance should not be an issue today.  Note that this horse took on Ginger Punch in the Grade 1 Phipps Handicap back on June 14.  Since then she’s dipped in class, but has what it takes to get the job done here today. Lexi Star is another classy mare I always seem to play. She’s gone up against Hystericalady and didn’t embarrass herself.  Jet Away Jane should be right there as well, and with the way La Chica Rica has been finishing in the exactas lately, I’ll add her to the mix at 10/1.

Trifecta Selections: 4/8,9/1,3.6,8,9 ($

Race 11: The Maryland Million Classic ($300,000) - 1 3/16 Miles

• #2 Cuba (6/5*)
• #3 Five Steps (7/5)
• #4 Evil Storm (6/1)

The feature race of the day is actually one of the more disappointing from an overall betting standpoint.  We’ve only got 5 horses, so if anyone scratches you can kiss the trifecta wagering goodbye.  I’m not a fan of these small fields as it seems virtually anything can (and will) happen.  Cuba is a horse I’ve been looking to catch here at Laurel.  I was hoping he’d come south for this and  he has.  Commentator dusted him (and everyone else for that matter) in his last race, and if you scratch that and his Grade 3 try against Grasshopper and Honest Man, suddenly you’ve got a live one here. Five Steps has some impressive Beyers (104, and 100 - for example), but his last two races are a bit troubling.  Evil Storm has actually defeated Five Steps in the past, which is largely why he wound up as my third selection.  Use the favorite on top, and then hope a longshot hits the board in the bottom places, that’s really the only chance for a big score here unless the favorites melt down and you were incredibly confident with one of the longshots.

Trifecta Selections: 2/3,6/1,3,4,5,6 ($

Race 12: The Maryland Million Sprint Starter Handicap ($30,000) - 6 Furlongs

• #12 Mass Charles (3/1)
• #9 All Star Prospect (7/2)
• #10 Allen’s Close Call (5/1)

We wind up with a starter sprint going 6 furlongs on the main track.  I’m going to be all about #12 Mass Charles for my friends over at That’s Amore Stables.  I’ll be cheering my guts out for you guys.  What a way to end a day at the races if he can pull it off.  All Star Prospect and Allen’s Close Call looked like the logical threats to me.  I’m being brief here because my one and only play is going to be on Mass Charles.  Let’s go Horacio (Karamanos)! 

Of course I’ll be wading into the Pick 4 pools as well.  We’ve actually got 2 of them, one beginning in race 3 and another starting in race 8. Here’s my initial thoughts on those tickets.

Early Pick 4 (races 3 through 6):

• Race 3: 6,7,8,12
• Race 4: 1,3,4
• Race 5: 3,8
• Race 6: 4,7

Total Cost ($4

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Late Pick (races 8 through 11):

• Race 8: 3,7,9
• Race 9: 2,4
• Race 10:  4,6,8,9
• Race 11:  2,3

Total Cost ($4

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Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for some good weather and a fabulous day at Laurel Park.