I trust you’ll understand why I’ve dispensed with the whole “pick a winner” type of poll when it comes to the Ladies’ Classic. There’s only one girl in here you need to know about. The monster, the superstar, the 50 foot woman, the undefeated Zenyatta.
She’s arguably as big a star as Curlin (especially out in California) and has been a mainstay feature of this blog since I first gave her out in my handicapping picks during her maiden race. If you can find a chink in her armor, play it, as you’ll likely cash a small fortune if she goes down. That being said, I’ll eat chalk all day long on this gal. This is arguable the surest thing we’ve got the entire Breeders’ Cup weekend.
The situation gets a bit murkier in trying to predict who will finish second? Doing so could be the key to hitting the exacta/trifecta/superfecta multiple times - which may be what it takes to earn a dime from this race due to the presence of Zenyatta and the relatively small field facing her.
Hystericalady would seem to make sense getting loose on the lead, but you can’t like how speed has struggled at Santa Anita all meet. Cocoa Beach, Ginger Punch, and Carriage Trail all become the likely contenders for pace honors then in my opinion.
I’ll side with Ginger Punch. True, Carriage Trail and Cocoa Beach are getting a lot of hype for how they either have run or are working over the Pro-Ride, but in the end I’ll take the class and experience of Ginger Punch. Just ask yourself this. If Zenyatta were not around, who would be favored to win this race? I’d say Ginger Punch, so she’s my choice…although you may actually get better odds on Cocoa Beach.
I really like Zenyatta, but I LOVE Ginger Punch, what a fighter! She’s so guttsy, and I saw her win the Breeders Cup Distaff last year, so I’m rooting for a repeat! I think she can do it. (-:
Really excited to see what Music Note will be like against these “big girls”.
Zenyatta is probably a single in your Pick 3 or 4 or 6
, but I might cross my fingers and do the odd “win” bet on Hystericallady for purely dumb sentimental reasons. I’m in Northern California. Agree about Ginger Punch…I bet her last year and she won well despite Monmouth being a swamp.
Ah, Music Note and Hystericalady…
I’m not sure this is Music Note’s best distance. I know, I know - she’s 2 for 2 going 1 1/8 and her win in the Gazelle was impressive - but to me she’s even better going 1 1/4 miles on true dirt. If that were the setup I might be thinking upset with her. We’ll see though.
Hystericalady I can’t touch if she’s going to be part of the pace. Early speed has just been abysmal at Santa Anita so far. Brad Free’s got an article on it over at the DRF website (as part of the BC coverage you have to purchase) - it’s highly worth checking it out. Not sure if it’s been in the print versions of the DRF paper itself yet.
KEVIN,
I have to disagree with the “early speed has been abysmal” comment. As the meet has gone on, it’s becoming more of a dirt track. So if you like INDIAN BLESSING and close range DEAREST TRICKSKI, how can you be “all in” on late running ZENYATTA?
One or both of the Godolphin fillies will be tough. Regarding BRIAN’s comment about MUSIC NOTE, she is a 1/2 sister to MUSICAL CHIMES (by IN EXCESS, she was a G.1 winner in France and the U.S.) who had a monster late kick at a mile and defeated SINGLETARY and the boys in the G.2 Oak Tree Mile, the same year that one took the BC Mile. If a hard summer campaign hasn’t sapped her, she could be tough. Her last work on the Pro-ride was unimpressive while on a loose reign. Her stablemate COCOA BEACH, fresh of drinking a little GINGER PUNCH, looked like she was sitting on another big effort.
And Joyce, I feel that HYSTERICALADY will be the one to run down. She’ll be tracking BEAR NOW (if drawn outside) or will be setting a fast pace. I envision her on the lead into the lane as she was in the Lady’ Secret. IMO, Gomez and Hollendorfer learned about ZENYATTA last out…slow the pace and turn this into a sprint for home and the big filly will win. This time, they’ll make ZENYATTA run from the 1/4 to the 3/4 just to stay in contact. Her graded stakes wins where the pace at 3/4 was 1:10 3/5 or faster resulted in her smallest winning margins. I’m envsioning a :46 3/5, 1:10 pace which is something HYSTERICALADY can dole out very easily (see her game Humana Distaff run where she took heat, put away the other speed, and was just caught on the line). That will sap ZENYATTA’s kick and I’m not sure her class will matter. Whether HYSTERICALADY can hold off COCOA BEACH, MUSIC NOTE, and GINGER PUNCH is another discussion.
Kevin hey are you coming out here to see Curlin at BC day Sat?…. I have an extra ticket to Clubhouse no seat but Clubhouse side Saturday only… none of my friends want to go so… pass this on to anyone wanting/needing a ticket I am driving down there from N. Cal on Thurs/Fri.. I have NOT posted the ticket for sale anywhere..you can Email me if you want I re-signed up on here so YOU should be able to see my Email address… Rob-lejeune
@amateurcapper - wow, that’s probably the most comprehensive breakdown of how to beat Zenyatta I’ve ever seen - and it makes sense to me. I’m still backing her though. Why? She’s an absolute freak. Honestly I think she could win the Classic on Saturday if she ran there.
@roblejeune - I’d LOVE to head down with you….I’m just stuck 3,000 miles away in PA. None of your friends want to go? I’m reminded of the lyrics to the 80s classic “Safety Dance”:
“we can ask your friends to dance
and if they don’t dance
then they ain’t no friends of ours.”
Kevin-You think Zenyatta could win the Classic on Saturday if she entered? I take it you like her more than Curlin now? I’ll never admit a horse can defeat Curlin, and I honestly don’t think any could, but Zenyatta could get second deffinetely! (-:
Go Curlin!!
Santa. Teresita.
Ah, thought we might get some love for Santa Teresita. She’s been close before!
Brian - here’s my thought. On the synthetics I do think Zenyatta “could” beat Curlin if she ran in the Classic on Saturday. On a true dirt track going 1 1/4 I think Curlin’s unbeatable at this point in time, but on synthetics (especially out in CA where she’s comfortable)- all I’ll say is that I’d cover her number on the Pick 4 and Pick 6.
Ginger Punch to win.