THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Here it is - the Breeders’ Cup Classic!!!  Perhaps never before in it’s storied history has the Breeders’ Cup Classic been shrouded in so much mystery.  This is obviously due in large part to this year’s running being the first conducted over a synthetic surface.  We all know the main story lines - this was supposed to be the showdown of the year/decade/century between Curlin and Big Brown until a freak injury ended the son of Boundary’s racing career.  Now the picture is further confused by the entry of some top notch turf runners from across the pond in Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade.

Let’s start with the obvious.  If the Curlin we’ve all come to know and love over the last 20 months shows up and takes to the synthetic track the way he has to the various dirt tracks he’s raced at across the globe (and arguably his one try on the grass at Belmont as well), then it’s hard to see anyone defeating the son of Smart Strike.  At the 1 1/4 mile distance he’s simply the best horse on the planet when running on a “main track.”   If his workouts are any indication, he seems to not be bothered at all by the Pro-Ride synthetic surface of Santa Anita.  His public work last week was visually impressive, but it’s of course a whole different story when you’re actually running a race.  There’s simply no way we can know how he’ll respond, and as such 7/5 is a risky venture.

You know me though - I’m the self proclaimed “world’s biggest Curlin fan” (aren’t all Curlin fans the self-proclaimed “world’s biggest?” If I ever meet someone who is a bigger fan, I’ll have to retreat to the presumption that “world’s biggest” implies my ability to consume mass quantities of ball park frank hot dogs at one sitting) - which means I’ve got to back him, so of course he’ll be my pick.  I still must caution against using him as a single on the multi-race exotics though. There’s just too many questions to be that aggressive for such a short (7/5) reward in my opinion.  Plus, let’s not forget that there could be a mandatory payout on as much as $5,000,000 in the Pick 6 pool when all is said and done, so let’s not do anything stupid to jeopardize our chances of cashing is all I’m saying.

Looking at the rest of the field, there’s some serious value here.  I’m sure our European friends are licking their lips at the idea of getting 10/1 on either Henry or the Duke!  I’ll be honest here and say that Duke of Marmalade is the one of these two that most concerns me as a Curlin fan.  He seems to be in very sharp form coming into this.  Yes, I know he finished 7th in the Arc, but he was only beaten by 3 3/4 lengths.  Prior to that he had rattled off 5 consecutive victories.  If this guy has shipped and is ready to roll, he’ll be a major force.

Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator have sort of taken turns beating each other over in Europe.  Henry is probably the better known of the two, but Raven’s Pass has been in a bit sharper form recently.  My biggest question with Raven’s Pass (beyond the surface question that so many of the entries face) will be whether or not 1 1/4 miles is his best distance?  He may be more of a mile type runner.  We shall see.

Three dark horses for this race are the Japanese import Casino Drive, California native Colonel John, and the well traveled Go Between.  If I had to separate them, I’d probably prefer them in this order: Go Between, Casino Drive, and Colonel John.

Casino Drive will likely enter with the greater “hype” surrounding him.  He was, after all, the horse many had pinned their hopes to for the Belmont this June before a slight injury caused the horse to scratch at the last minute.  Since then he’s followed what some U.S. fans might consider an odd training pattern with only one “prep” race (an Allowance victory here at Santa Anita) leading up to the classic. What we know of this guy is that he seemed to do fine over the Pro-Ride, distance shouldn’t be a problem as he was considering the “marathon” (1 1/2 miles), and he’s got solid bloodlines being a half to Jazil and a son of Mineshaft out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour.  He’ll still need his best stuff though to get by Curlin and the others.  I am expecting a game effort, just not a victory. 

Go Between could be the forgotten man on the tote board.  He doesn’t have the star quality of some of the other runners and perhaps isn’t as “sexy” a choice.   Still, this is a guy who has run very well over the synthetics and has battled gamely with the likes of Heatseeker - who at one point I thought was on the road to becoming the favorite in the Classic.  I’d almost guarantee that Go Between will hit the board on Saturday.  At 8/1 you’re getting a horse with much fewer questions compared to the bigger named competitors.  In other words, you could do a lot worse than using this guy in your multi-race exotic wagers.

Colonel John and I have a bit of a love/hate relationship.  Well, that’s not entirely true as the Colonel actually has no opinion of me.  I like him - always have.  In fact, I made him my 2008 Kentucky Derby selection - only to wind up looking foolish to friends and family.  Perhaps I shouldn’t remind folks of such handicapping selections as they can only serve to dampen credibility - but I”m the type of guy that wears his heart on his sleeve and I’ve got no shame in being honest about my picks that don’t turn out right in the end.  That being said, this was a different horse Travers this August at Saratoga.  Who knew the Colonel had it in him?  He posted a career high Beyer Speed Figure of 106 and nailed Mambo in Seattle to prevail.  Now he heads back home to what I believe is his preferred territory in California.  Can we expect the same?  I may like the guy a lot (I’m always fond of the Tiznow colts), but I can’t see it happening here.  He’s going to find the competition a bit steeper than Mambo in Seattle and Pyro in my opinion. 

Then there’s Tiago. I’ve always been fond of this guy as well.  In fact, he and Curlin were my main plays in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  While that didn’t pan out as planned, it’s been fun watching his career.  We’ll see if he can turn the tables on Curlin, but he’s faced him a few times before and has never been able to finish ahead of him on dirt.  I’m not expecting a change even though we’re on the Pro-Ride. 

Fairbanks is likely going to be the controlling pace.  He’s a nice horse, don’t get me wrong, I’m just not a fan of the front runners over the Pro-Ride, even if they are “controlling” speed.  Through in the fact that he’s a complete unknown on synthetics and his two turf tries were not anything to write home about (albeit at the beginning of his career when he was not the same horse he is now), and I’ll pass.  Maybe he can hang on for a share, but even that’s pushing it in my opinion.  I see him coming back to the field as they enter the stretch and being gobbled up by the better runners.

That leavesus with Champs Elysees as the last real possible longshot (as I’m just not feeling it for Smooth Air or Student Council).  Here’s what I like about “the Champs”: he’s run consistently well on every type of footing he’s faced - grass, dirt, synthetics - you name it and he’s got a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure on it.  He’s also breaking from the outside which means he’ll get a clean start.  I do think he’s a better turf runner overall, but his versatility suggests he won’t be one of the ones struggling to kick it into gear over the Pro-Ride.  He’s an interesting possibility for the superfecta wagers to say the least - although I would be shocked if he prevailed and won the Classic. 

I’ll stick with Curlin as my main choice.  I’ve got to ride the horse that got me here, and this is likely the swan song for the colt that has meant so much to me these last two seasons.  I’m deeply saddened by the prospect of never getting to cheer for him again, so I plan on standing on my sofa, screaming my lungs out for him to “mow ‘em down!!!!” as the field turns for home.  The Smart Strike colts are supposed to be a fairly solid “1st time synthetic” play, and I’ve got no reason to think he won’t adapt to his surroundings.  I LOVE the idea to ship him immediately after the Jockey Club Gold Cup and give him as much time to become acclimated as equinely possible. He’s a freak, and I both hope and suspect he’ll be adding more honors to his already prestigious “$10 million man” title this weekend.  Actually, he’s more than a freak.  There are plenty of “freaks” out there - this guy is “special” - and it’s been the honor of my life to watch him run. 

Here’s hoping you’ve got one more good one in you, ole boy.  Just like it should be in a perfect world scenario, if anyone wants to claim the crown they’re going to have to get by you to do it.  This may not be the ground of our choosing - it goes without saying we’d prefer a true dirt track - but when those gates open none of that will matter.  Just trust that Robby Albarado will point you in the right direction, then cock that head of yours rounding the final turn like you always do, line up your targets in your sight, and run ‘em down with authority.  Let’s close this final chapter with a high note.  Let’s end this story the way it’s meant to be ended - in victory!