Finally, we’re in the home stretch! As we wind down into the final races of the Breeders’ Cup championship weekend we next land on the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Nine horses will be headed into the gate, including last year’s sprint champion Midnight Lute.
I really like Street Boss here, but I’m not so keen on him being the morning line favorite at 3/1. Ever since his last-to-first triumph in the Los Angeles Handicap on 5/10 at Hollywood Park, I’ve been salivating over making him my Breeders’ Cup sprint pick. I have to be honest though and admit that I was hoping he would be 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line due to his defeat in the Ancient Title to rival Cost of Freedom (who happens to be 3rd choice on the morning line at 4/1).
Here’s the deal with Street Boss: you know you’re going to get a good run out of him. That’s never been the question with him. The question is whether or not he might leave himself too much to do in the stretch. His runs are magnificent and breath taking, but it’s dangers to have to come from 5-7 wide and pass half a dozen or more runners each time you race. Still, he’s been pretty darn consistent about it. If not for the defeat to Cost of Freedom by a 1/2 length in the Ancient Title, we’d be talking about a guy who had won 6 races in a row – and really has not been “soundly” defeated since racing at the Allowance level last October.
Cost of Freedom had the better trip in the Ancient Title and was able to hold off Street Boss. The question bettors must ask is whether or not that can be expected to repeat here in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint? Cost of Freedom did prove to us that his 110 Beyer Speed Figure at the Allowance level on 8/9/08 was not a fluke, as he repeated that same figure in the Ancient Title. He’s also 5 for 5 lifetime going 6 furlongs and is a perfect 3 for 3 over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride.
Of course, there’s also Midnight Lute, the winner of last year’s Sprint. Only trouble is that he doesn’t seem like the same horse that was coming into this race a year ago. Last year we had that gaudy 124 Beyer Speed Figure in the Forego to hitch our wagons to. This year we instead have a decidedly flat effort in the O’Brien Handicap (Grade 2) on 8/24 that only earned an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. In other words, warning signs abound. He may have peaked already.
A horse I think is being slightly overlooked here is In Summation. I’ve been sort of waiting for him to put it all together for a couple of races now. I think he may have had a shot to pull the upset in the Ancient Title if not for some traffic trouble as the field started to enter the stretch. If this guy puts it all together, he might get the best trip on Saturday as well.
Of course, it’s hard to count out runners like Fabulous Strike, Lewis Michael, and First Defence as well. Really any of these guys “could” win. I’m just guessing this one comes down to Street Boss closing into an early stretch lead by Cost of Freedom again – and I’m banking that this time Street Boss is able to rally past him.
It may be asking a lot of Street Boss, but I’ve had my heart set on picking him for a couple of months now. I definitely won’t be using him as a single on the multi-race exotics, as that’s just asking to be burned by a bad trip, but I’ll still give him the nod here. Cost of Freedom and In Summation would be my 2nd and 3rd choices. I don’t mean to disrespect Fabulous Strike or First Defence by not including them, as I think they are fabulous horses in their own right, I just need to see some synthetic form before I can up their chances this year. If we were running on true dirt I’d like them quite a bit better.
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