It’s Championship Saturday! Look, I don’t care who you are, if you’re alive and breathing you need to be playing along in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 pools at Santa Anita today. We’ve got 9 championship races – from the Marathon to the Classic. I won’t be giving out a “caveman” ticket here today, as I’ll likely be all over the place and switching things up right up until the cutoff. Instead, we’ll look at each race and I’ll just throw out some horses I think deserve win consideration. Hopefully this helps folks boil down to the horses they can choose from for their exotic wagers.
Race 1: Breeders’ Cup Marathon ($500,000)
- #4 Sixties’ Icon (2/1*)
- #6 Zappa (5/2)
- #8 Cedar Mountain (6/1)
- #5 Muhannak (20/1)
- #3 Delightful Kiss (8/1)
Sixties’ Icon could make this one simple if he shows up in his recent form. He’s got 3 straight wins overseas and won a group 2 race at this distance over the turf at Newmarket in May ‘07. As long as he takes to the track it should be his, but that’s always the question with these types.
Zappais the next likely candidate based on his effort in the Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar on 7/30/08. Since then he’s been soundly beaten by the likes of Well Armed and Go Between – who thankfully he avoids today. The key with him is not biting off more than he can chew from a competition standpoint, and he certainly fits with this field.
Cedar Mountainwas my original pick in our polls at the beginning of the week. I heard Watchmaker mention him as well when talking with Matt Carouthers on TVG yesterday. He’s at a fair price and has at least shown synthetic form (and decent at that) compared to the favorite.
My bombs for the race would be Muhannak (20/1) and Delightful Kiss (8/1). I really like Muhannak here. He’s won at this distance on both turf and synthetics. I’ll play him at 20/1 all day long.
Race 2: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint ($1,000,000)
- #13 Get Funky (9/2*)
- #3 True to Tradition (15/1)
- #2 Fleeting Spirit (5/1)
- #9 Desert Code (30/1)
Turf sprints certainly aren’t my strong suit, but this one appears predictable on paper. Mr. Nightlinger and Calfironia Flag will be part of what should be a white hot pace. This should open things up for my top two picks. Get Funky has crept up in my rankings since I originally picked True to Tradition earlier in the week. I still like them both, and obviously favor the odds on the latter, but Get Funky gets the slight nod now for having experience over the downhill turf course. ‘Funky is the favorite, but 9/2 is a pretty fair price.
Fleeting Spirit warrants consideration not only for being a Euro-invader (always a threat on the grass), but for chasing a talented Marchand d’Or lat time out in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (Group 1). Obviously he’ll have to take to the firm turf at Santa Anita to run big.
My longshot bomb for the race is Desert Code at 30/1. He’s 3 for 5 at this distance and can flirt with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. One of t he rare times you’ll see a jockey switch from Gomez to Migliore potentially yield rewards.
Race 3: Breeder’s Cup DIrt Mile ($1,000,000)
- #8 Well Armed (3/1*)
- #7 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
- #2 Lewis Michael (5/1)
- #2 Surf Cat (6/1)
The “synthetic mile” got a little less interesting when Mast Track defected (possibly – he’s in one moment and out the next depending on where you turn). I’m pretty chalky here with no real bombs. Well Armed just looks like the play to me. I’m not sure he can be beat, and I suspect he’ll get pounded well below 3/1 at the windows. Lewis Michael will probably float up to 2nd choice, but I wasn’t impressed with the workouts I caught on TVG (and it didn’t seem like they were all that impressed either). Albertus Maximus could offer some “value” if the other two get bet down. Surf Cat probably can’t win this, although I’ll be shocked if he’s not in the superfecta. He’s too good not to hit somewhere. I know my wife wants Pyro here at long odds, but I can’t imagine him pulling off the upset. My Pal Charlie was rumored to have been training well for the event, so take that into consideration when filling out your superfecta.
Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf – $2,000,000)
- #4 Goldikova (3/1*)
- #2 Kip Deville ((5/1)
- #8 Daytona (6/1)
- #11 Whatsthescript (4/1)
- #3 Precious Kitten (8/1)
This one should be about Goldikova - provided she likes the footing here at Santa Anita. The multiple Group 1 winner may “only” be a 3-year-old filly, but she’s part of an excellent crop from Europe and actually enters with a distinct class advantage over the U.S. runners. Note that the last horse to defeat her was Zarkava, who would be odds on favorite here if she had shipped across the pond. Check her out in the post parade, but if she looks good she’s probably the only number you need to cover.
Kip Deville is the best U.S. turf mile runner in my opinion, so if something happens to Goldikova (which is possible), he’d make the most sense in my mind. Oh yeah, he also won this race last year, so don’t sell him short. He wasn’t favored last year either, and has won 2 of 3 races since. His last effort may cause some folks to jump ship, but note that it came over a yielding turf at Woodbine that he obviously didn’t enjoy. Expect a rebound and a much bigger performance today.
Daytona and Whatsthescript are horses that I really like, I’m just worried about each. I’m concerned that Whatsthescript is up against it breaking from the outside as he’ll have to find a way to save as much ground as he can in the 1st turn. Daytona is a Grade 1 winner, but hasn’t been able to defeat Whatsthescript in 2 recent tries. I suppose he could turn the corners if Whatsthescript falters due to the aforementioned reason, so he may be worth taking a shot if you want a price.
For the ultimate upset, though I don’t think it’s going to happen, you could try Precious Kitten at 8/1. She’s probably in over her head here, but if she did pull it off it would be fun to be a part of it.
Race 5: The Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ($2,000,000)
- #4 Square Eddie (9/2)
- #12 Bushranger (6/1)
- #1 Munnings (7.2*)
- #11 Midshipman (5/1)
- #8 Street Hero (6/1)
- #13 Minethatbird (30/1)
The Juvenile looks a little more wide open than it did to me on first glance. I’m still backing Square Eddie in the hopes that he can move forward off of his victory in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity on October 4. “Baby Curlin” would help keep a good thing going since Zenyatta and Zenyatta Jr. (Stardom Bound) won yesterday on Ladies’ Day. How cool would it be if Curlin and Baby Curlin brought things home today? He’ll have a chance.
Bushranger is a horseI essentially missed in my handicapping at the beginning of the week. He’s a good sprinter from overseas that could run away with this thing if he takes to the track. Word on TVG was that he’d looked pretty good, and 6/1 is a good price all things being considered.
Munnings is the East Coast top 2-year-old. Usually the eastern horses don’t ship as well going west as good as the California horses ship east. That’s just my opinion. Still, this guy has talent and would be hard to leave out of contention.
Midshipman and Street Hero each look like they’ll have a chance, but if you want to go busting the bank take a stab on the 30/1 longshot of the field, Minethatbird. He’s coming off 4 consecutive victories – and it’s not like he can’t run on synthetics. You could do a lot worse at 30/1.
Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf ($1,000,000)
- #12 Grand Adventure (5/1)
- #11 Bittel Road (7/2*)
- #7 Coronet of a Baron (9/2)
- #3 Westphalia (5/1)
- #4 Donativum (6/1)
- #10 Skipadate (6/1)
It looks to me that you’ve got to go deep here in the exotics as I don’t see a standout. Grand Adventure is my top choice, but Bittel Road does deserve the morning line favoritism. The horse that perplexed me originally was Coronet of a Baron, but the folks at TVG insisted during “the works” that he has looked sensational since arriving at Santa Anita. I have trouble separating Westphalia, Donativum (who struck me as a cool customer when they showed him on TVG), and Skipadate. Good luck on this one.
Race 7: The Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint ($2,000,000)
- #2 Street Boss (3/1*)
- #1 Cost of Freedom (4/1)
- #3 Fabulous Strike (4/1)
- #4 Midnight Lute (7/2)
- #7 In Summation (10/1)
My guy for the Sprint all summer long has been Street Boss, but I remain concerned that he may get caught in traffic or leave himself a bit too much to do turning for home. Cost of Freedom is the horse that hung on against him last time out in the Ancient Title, so you’ve obviously got to give that one a fair chance here as well. I do think Street Boss will get the job done, but my confidence has been dulled a bit.
Midnight Lute is the x-factor. There are those that think he runs away with this just like he did last year’s Sprint, but there’s obvious reason to be concerned. He’s been on the shelf and his last races don’t look anything like his triumph last year at Monmouth. If the real Midnight Lute shows up this whole thing is academic, but that still a big “if.”
In Summation is the horse I think could shock everyone. He may have done so in the Ancient Title if not for some traffic trouble. He’ll probably be forgotten at the windows so there will be value here. He’s worth a win flyer in my opinion. Same for Fabulous Strike if he’s 4th choice on the tote board.
Race 8: The Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Turf ($3,000,000)
- #4 Soldier of Fortune (7/2*)
- #2 Red Rocks (5/1)
- #10 Out of Control (10/1)
- #9 Conduit (6/1)
- #11 Eagle Mountain (6/1)
The Breeders’ Cup Turf seems to be all about Soldier of Fortune. A legitimate Group 1 turf runner, he has banged heads with the likes of Youmzain, Zarkava, and Dylan Thomas. If he takes to the firm turf at Santa Anita and the heat doesn’t get to him, he should be able to defeat this field. However, if those things don’t happen, there will be value underneath, and most likely inflated value as you’re not likely to get anything like 7/2 on Soldier of Fortune.
Red Rocks is my next choice due in large part to his defeat of Curlin in the Man O’ War. I think that was a deceptively good turf race since it also featured Better Talk Now, Out of Control, and Grand Coturier (who are also in this race today). Red Rocks made ‘em all look silly in that one, and despite the fact he’s been off for a while, should be able to get back on top. He’s got the European breeding that is always important and he’s thrived in U.S. turf racing.
Out of Control is a longshot that a lot of folks are whispering about. Yet another from that Man O’ War against Curlin and Red Rocks. He posted a 112 Beyer Speed Figure chasing Red Giant last out in the Hirsch. Another effort like that and he’s a player in here for sure.
Eagle Mountain and Conduit are likely to be higher than 6/1 on the board in my opinion, so they are my “bomber” picks. And it goes without saying I’ll have something sentimental on Better Talk Now as I’ve loved “Blackie” for years.
Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Classic ($5,000,000)
- #9 Curlin (7/5*)
- #1 Go Between (8/1)
- #8 Raven’s Pass (6/1)
- #5 Henrythenavigator (10/1)
Since it’s likely my last chance to bet Curlin – I’ll be all aboard on him in the exotics. Yes, I think it’s possible he gets beat today. Obviously it’ll be the surface if he goes down. I think he was good enough on the turf to expect him to run solid over the Pro-Ride, but I’m not thinking it will be his best effort. This is a tough, tough field to crack, but if anyone can do it, it’s him.
Go Between is the horse for the course I’d make 2nd choice. He also looked a million bucks from what I saw on “the works” on TVG.
Raven’s Pass is the most interesting of the Euros in my opinion. Raven should be able to get the extra 1/4 mile today in the Classic with no problems.
Tough call between Henry and The Duke – but I liked what I saw of Henrythenavigator during the weekly workouts a bit more.
Best of luck to all – Happy Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday!!!
Well I got burned on my early pick 4 (left out Desert Code) – but nailed the first two “bomber” picks (Desert Code and Muhannak). Thank god for saver win bets!
Somehow, despite getting drilled in the pick 4, I’m still playing with quite a bit of “house money.”
I picked close to you on my 1,2s, without reading this. Race 4 was my only good one. I need to learn about the pick 6 stuff that was constant chatter on the breederscup.com coverage. Any easy reference on that? I didn’t understand the terms they were using. I liked yesterday better.
Sure thing Sally.
First off, I’d probably say start with Pick 4’s. They’re basically the same thing only easier (and significantly cheaper) to hit. Plus you can hit them more consistently. The trade-off is they don’t pay as much.
Of course, you’ve got to use a ticket on Breeders’ Cup days in the PIck 6 as the pools are huge. Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Days are also good, or when a particular pool has several “carry-over” days (when nobody scores a Pick 6, and most of the money inflates the pool for the following day).
Basically you’re taking a bet on the winning combination of runners in each of 4 (or 6) consecutive races. A lot of folks will build tickets off of a “single” – or a “free square.” Usually this is the horse (or horses) you think “can’t lose” (like Zenyatta was to many on Friday). Then they go “deeper” in other legs.
Some folks will put together a “caveman” ticket – that’s just a straight up gamble saying I like 1 horse in leg 1, 3 horses in leg 2, 4 horses in leg 3, and 2 horses in leg 4. Then you multiply those combinations by your wager amount (usually $1 in the Pick 4 and $2 in the PIck 6). The 1×3x4×2 combo we just referenced would cost $24 if you played a $1 Pick 4.
It’s usually more effective to play the combinations you feel strongest about multiple times, and then have a few flyer combinations – that way you can actually get “deeper” into a few races and pick out bombs. It gets too expensive “caveman” style to drop $200 on a Pick 6 or over $50 on a pick 4. A good rule of thumb (like w hat you’ll see on TVG) is to limit a PIck 6 wager to around $150 and a pick 4 to $50. Keep ‘em under those marks – otherwise you’re “gambling” and not “handicapping.”
The winnings of the “pool” get split up amongst the winning tickets – meaning you can get some great value usually. As an added bonus, a lot of times the Pick 4 in particular has a lower track takeout (the portion of each wager that is deducted from the pool for the tracks profits – usually around 15% – 30%) than other bets on the menu like win, place, show, and even the exactas and trifectas. It varies by track though. Basically they are your best bets if you’re going for a big score – but they are hard to hit.
Hope that helps – let me know any other questions you’ve got.
Kevin, thank you very much for taking the time to post this very clear explanation. If those guys on breederscup.com had filled some of their empty spin time (when they blabbed about the vodka bottles) with actual info on pick 6, there would have probably been more bets by web viewers like myself who haven’t ventured beyond boxing exactas or daily doubles.
It sounds as if you aren’t punished in pick 4 or 6 the way you are in an exacta if you don’t get both picks right. Is that correct? I’m saving this info to review before my next big betting adventure.
Again, thanks very much, and so sorry about the outcome with Curlin.
In a way, yes. You’re still punished if you don’t get the winner, and it gets expensive covering all of them (going “3 deep” across a pick 4 would run you $81, for example) – but you don’t get burned if your picks don’t run in exact order (provided you have the winner).
Probably the worst bet in horse racing is the exacta or trifecta box in my opinion. They aren’t even “bets” as much as “gambles” since you’re basically saying you have an even opinion on these runners regardless of finish – which generally isn’t (and shouldn’t) be true. You “should” have a combination you think has a great chance, followed by some others you think have lesser chances but may have higher rewards. A good idea is to bet accordingly rather than “boxing.”
Some good resources I’d recommend:
Start with Richard Eng’s “Betting on Horseracing for Dummies”
http://www.amazon.com/Betting-Racing-Dummies-Sports-Hobbies/dp/0764578405
Don’t let the “for dummies” title fool you. I own this book – it’s a great starting point and a useful refresher. Plus, I’ve met Richard and he’s a great guy. He’s also out there on Facebook and a very easy going guy to chat with. He loves talking horse.
Moving up from there and getting a bit more complicated, I’d look at Steve Davidowitz’ “Betting Thoroughbreds.”
http://www.amazon.com/Betting-Thoroughbreds-Professionals-Horseplayer-Revised/dp/0452270421
I’ll warn you though – Davidowitz book is generally speaking over the heads of newcomers and a bit intimidating. It’s incredibly useful, but kind of takes a diploma in handicapping before it starts really making sense.
He’ll introduce you to some of the strategies outside of making “caveman tickets” (like the x deep multiplied by y deep tickets we’ve discussed) and instead focus more profitably on the combinations you feel best about. Again, this turns it from just “gambling” into actually betting with an opinon.
Just keep this in mind – good handicapping requires years of skill and a good dose of luck – just look at how often “experts” get things wrong. Actually cashing winning tickets takes an almost equal amount of energy in betting “right.” It may seem simple, but MANY folks are decent handicappers and bad bettors. It’s much better to be a crappy handicapper but a good bettor…at least in my opinion.
I’d also highly recommend picking up the DVD videos of the DRF handicapping seminars. They gave us a copy when we went out to Vegas, and you get to hear speakers discuss things from pedigree to constructing pick 4/pick 6 wagers. On the latter subject we actually have Steven Crist from the DRF, who is widely considered one of the best pick 6 players alive, sounding off on the matter. He’s pretty much a definitive source as far as I’m concerned.
Here’s a link to the 2007 DVD. I guess 2008 will be available in a few months if you hold out, but there’s still great info here to start with:
http://store.drf.com/acb/stores/1/2007_Horseplayers_Expo_DVD_Box_P19883C1022.cfm
Thanks for the kind words – I’m not worried about Curlin’s legacy. I think most folks that matter can easily see it was a day that favored turf runners. Put that on dirt and there’s no way Tiago is in front of him, not to mention Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator.
Keep the questions coming – I know sometimes I get wrapped up in news and handicapping picks (or random nonsense), but one of the first reasons I decided to create this place was to reach out to new and prospective fans and help take away as much of the “mystery” as possible when starting out. It can be intimidating – but we’ll get you talking/playing like a pro in no time.
Thanks for the further information. You write very well. It’s tough learning handicapping in the current economic environment! Even with the $50 free dollars youbet put in my account as a new member, I was hurtin by end of the two days!
My old riding trainer owns race horses on the side, and had told me exacta boxes were the way to bet. On my own this weekend (Friday night, thinking about my wasted bets) I’d decided they definitely were not. So on Saturday I placed win and show bets on the horses I thought were looking good, but there were so many surprises on Saturday.
I’m going to get the for dummies book. On certain topics they’re excellent resources. Although some of them are nuts– is there an “Ordering Desserts for Dummies?” I really like to see the horses in person before betting, and will be back in L.A. after Dec. 1 when that is much more possible.
DRF sent me an email today about a dvd called “Trip Handicapping” but I get the feeling you’d have to see every race to stay up on that. Even though I’m only an occasional track visitor, (mostly the big races) I was really surprised how many of the horses this past weekend I’d already seen race.
I was a big fan of Colonel John last year too.
anyway, thanks again, I’ll do some reading and keep following your blog. I’ve found it to be the most helpful of all the ones in the side panel, at least for someone like myself.
Excellent analysis of Goldfreaka
And an exacta box of you Classic 4…
Sorry for you, sorry for Curlin.
I am not a fan of the fake.
Thanks Sally (and erniewoof)!
About exacta boxes – they are a decent bet for beginners, since you don’t get penalized if your top two choices run 2-1 instead of 1-2, but at the end of the day it’s tough to turn a profit boxing a lot of horses. I guess like everything else it has a time and a place (like when you really can’t separate, which does happen), but it’s far more rewarding to pick it without boxing.
That being said, I do tend to backload my tickets. My trifectas, for example, usually have one horse to win, 3 horses in place, and 5 in show. I just know that I’m much more lousy at picking a 3rd place finisher than I am a winner. Actually, that’s the very reason I’ve shied away from exactas and trifectas and instead focused on Pick 4’s for the most part. The dime superfectas of Breeders’ Cup weekend being an exception (and I didn’t do very well on them, to be honest).
About “Trip Handicapping” – it’s actually pretty good, but yes, it involves investing a lot of time watching race replays and looking for “trouble” that might not be in the abbreviated comments on the horses past performance. I take trouble into account, but usually I just go off the comments and/or the actual results chart (much better – tons of additional info). There are obvious things to look for like “bumped”, “bled”, or “in tight” – but to really get down and dirty at some point you’ve got to look for things that might not be apparent or evident to others. Think of it as a means for taking your game to the next level.
I’d say your best bet is to focus on the visual handicapping. That’s becoming something of a lost art. I’m trying to get better at it myself. It’s tough to do from an OTB screen or a computer monitor. Much better to be in the paddock at the races. It’s one of the surefire ways to get off a favorite and/or onto a live longshot. So far I’m only adapt at picking out sweating though – so much of horse’s behavior is still foreign to me that I can’t tell definitively when they are “acting up” or just being aggressive. If you’ve got a friend who owns horses you could probably learn a great deal from them. They are such fascinating animals!
LMAO @ “ordering desserts for dummies” – as there are a few ridiculous ones out there. I was just thumbing through Richard’s horse racing one and it’s still got my yellow highlight marker over things I thought were important. It’s a nice, easy read as well. Definitely not too much to digest. Some of the other books require some seroius reading/reflection time to put into practice.
Plus, I don’t know about you, but complex mathematic equations make me go bonkers. It’s just not my strong suit. That’s why I don’t calculate my own pace figures or anything like that – that’s a labor of love I could only do for pay. Still, it’s wise to recognize both the importance and futility of such concepts. It’s obviously important to know as much as you can about “why” and “how” a given race was run the way it was in order to make future assessments – but there’s also an element of futility as far as human error or assumptions are concerned. When you see the guys trying to figure out whether the wind was blowing 5 MPH or 7 MPH into the horse’s face entering the first turn – that’s where I get lost.
Best advice I can give you – just have fun. It’s probably not a good idea to expect a big score. Just make sure you are only wagering within your entertainment budget. I always say that if it’s money you would’ve saved or used to reduce debt – it’s a mistake to wager. If it’s money you would’ve spent on fast food and novelty junk (like lottery tickets) – then heck yeah, form an opinon about a race and bet it!
You’ll see lots of horses that you become familiar with during the bigger weekends, like Breeders’ Cup, KY Derby, etc. Those are usually the best days to fire up and jump into pools in my opinion. For one thing, there will be a lot of other folks wagering, which can inflate payoffs – and you’re usually dealing with better than average horses, so there’s generally more of a chance to really size them up against each other and get a feel for who’s who and what they are capable of.
Colonel John was my Derby pick, by the way.
Hey thanks so much for your thoughtful comments. I’m studying all your comments, Kevin.
Today a business friend of my husband called. He’s raised a lot of race horses in his day. (Not my husband, but the guy who called.)
He’s still got a couple of horses raised for racing in Florida. I was supposed to place my bets through him but then I found out about youbet which I liked better because it was private!!
Somehow he was seated in top seats at Breeders Cup, right behind (or in front of I forget) Arnold S and Kurt Russell. He was a guest of a top racing guy, (he said). He explained it to me but I was heading out the door. Not saying this to imply I’m hanging in these circles– trust me NO
But he told me he lost a ton of money also on second day, that all his pick 3’s were one pick short. I didn’t talk to him long, but it made me feel less off course in my choices, or at least less of a loser. He also said everyone around him was suffering similarly.
Anytime, Sally!
Yeah, the weird thing with me and Pick 3’s….I hit Pick 4’s more often than I hit Pick 3’s!!! How that is I have no idea….actually I do – it’s because I don’t allow myself to cover as many “shots” on my Pick 3’s. I look at pick 3’s and think of them as a chance to score $100, whereas I look at Pick 4’s as a chance to score $1000, so I’m willing to spend a tad more.
The result is usually that a horse I like burns my pick 3 ticket.
Lately I’ve only used Pick 3’s in the situations where I”m either knocked out of a Pick 4 in the first leg, or if I can’t come up with a PIck 4 that I like.
The key with both is finding a way to beat favorites. It’s cool to get a “free square” with a horse like Zenyatta, but they pretty much destroy big prices since EVERYONE has them. The cool thing is that beating a heavy chalk with a fairly logical 2nd or 3rd choice can open you up/keep you in line for a big score. Of course, if you’ve tried doing that with Zenyatta, you’re 0 for 8 (she wasn’t favored in her maiden race….I cashed on her though!).